Arima Kick Off MeetingRelease_pa10

7/31/2019 Arima Kick Off MeetingRelease_pa10

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Date : 2006-12-22

Creative Design Center

Market prospect in 2007

Powered by Stephen Hung, Alex Pao, Candice Yu


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Not as bad as I thought it would become!

More than 4i

Agenda

2

3

1 Market overview

Beyond 4i

4i in 2007

4Arima strategy thinking in 20075


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Market overview


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Section: Global market outlook


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2006(e) 2007(f) 2008(f)

3.9% 3.2% 3.5%

3.2% 2.1% 3%

2.9% 2.4% 2.5%

2.4% 1.9% 1.9%

10.4% 9.6% 8.7%

8.7% 7.7% 7.2% 4.2% 4.1%

Global economic observation(1)

Global Insight& & ,2006 11


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Global economic observation(2)

2007

WTO


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UNIT:K 2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2005.2010CAGR (%)

shipmentforecast

833,281 981,180 1,063,895 1,142,714 1,197,231 1,264,653 8.70%

YoY Growth 17.75% 8.43% 7.41% 4.77% 5.63%

Source: IDC, July 2006

17.75%

8.43%7.41%

4.77% 5.63%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

shipment forecast YoY Growth

unit :M

unit: year

WW Mobile shipment overview

WW shipments will reach 981M in year 2006 (YOY:17.7%)and 1064M in year 2007

2006~2010 CAGR: 8.7 %

833

981

10641143 1197

1265


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7.93%

18.08%

5.69%7.40%9.64%

13.08%

15.61%

53.57.74%62.17%

66.35%

73.99%

69.67%

40.34.86%

28.19%

20.56%

14.72%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 20

2G 2.5G 3G

unit:%

unit: year

2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2005-2010 CAGR (%)

2G 18.08% 15.61% 13.08% 9.64% 7.40% 5.69% -13.70%

2.5G 73.99% 69.67% 66.35% 62.17% 57.74% 53.78% 2%

3G 7.93% 14.72% 20.56% 28.19% 34.86% 40.53% 50.60%

Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 8.70%


WW forecast by generation

2.5G

2G

3G

2.5G air interfaces will represent the majority of all devices, followed by 2G and then 3Gdevices.

3G catch up with 2.5G


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34.70%33.00%33.13%

29.40%

32.10%

21.10%21.80%20.34%17.70%

14.80%

12.00%11.10%12.79%12.50%12.20%

6.50%

6.60%6.30% 6.70% 6.88%7.80%

6.40%5.87%6.20%6.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

2004 2005 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3

Nokia Motorola Samsung LG SEMCunit:%

unit: year

Top 5 Vendor market share ranking

source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, October 19, 2006

Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments by Vendor, 2004-2006 Q3

struggle


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WW converged mobile device market preview

8

12

15

16


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Note:

CDMA: CDMA one+ CDMA2000 1X RTT + CDMA2000 1X EV-DO / DVGSM:GSM/GPRS+EDGE+WCDMA+HSDPA

Others: TDMA+PDC+iDEN+TD-SCDMA

2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2005-2010 CAGR (%)

GSM group 653,469 788,770 867,865 936,274 979,261 1,025,263 9.43%

CDMA group 146,742 169,120 178,620 196,780 209,490 228,820 9.29%

Others group 33,069 23,290 17,410 9,660 8,480 10,570 -20.40%

Total 833,280 981,180 1,063,895 1,142,714 1,197,231 1,264,653 8.70%

80.39%78.42%81.57% 81.93% 81.79% 81.07%

17.61% 17.24% 16.79% 17.22% 17.50% 18.09%

3.97% 2.37% 1.64% 0.85% 0.71% 0.84%0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

GSM group CDMA group Others group

unit:%

unit: year

80/20 principle

WW market share by air interface

GSM group

CDMA group



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Dual mode phone penetration rate

0.05 0.452.62

152.92

119.52

71.04

17.88

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2004 2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

Unit:(M)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Percentage(%)

Cellular/Wi-Fi phone Percertage

2006 Cellular/ Wi-Fi phone shipment estimate to reach 2.62 millions. Bythe end of 2010, dual mode phone can accounted for 12% of the totalhandset shipment. (Nearly 153 millionsvolume. )

(Source: IEK March, 2006)


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4i in 2007


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Not as bad as I thought it would become!Source:

Digitalize your life

CPU

Dual-coreMulti-coreprocessor

Symbian

Palm

Windows

Linux

Notebook PC

Desktop PC

Digital VideoRecorder

DVD player &Recorder

Digital STB

Home Server

Mobile Phone

MP3 player

Home Theater

Game console

LCD TV

Digital RP TV

Telematics

PDP TV

Digital Camcorder

Digital Camera

WiMAX

UMB

MIMO

W-USBIEEE-1394

DVI/HDMI

Ethernet

WCDMA

EV-DO

HSXPA

Wi-Fi


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or

or

Scenarios
http://abc.go.com/primetime/celebritymole/index.html


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4i (i): Vista


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Microsoft Windows Vista is coming!

2006 11 30 Windows Vista Enterprise

Source: http://www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/default.aspx

3D Media center

Windows Mobile 5.0 Crossbow

Vista enabled in converged phone?
http://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=11%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5&variant=zh-twhttp://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=11%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5&variant=zh-twhttp://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Enterprise&action=edithttp://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Enterprise&action=edithttp://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=11%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5&variant=zh-twhttp://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=11%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5&variant=zh-twhttp://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=11%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5&variant=zh-twhttp://zh.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=11%E6%9C%8830%E6%97%A5&variant=zh-twhttp://www.seewindowsvista.com/


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4i (ii) : Wii


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Game console introduction

Company Name Japan launch US launch Europe launch

Nintendo Wii Release date 2-Dec 19-Nov TBD25,000 $249.99 TBD(w/ packaged

software)Microsoft Xbox360 Release date Released Released Released

Full set 39,795 $399.90 $399.90Core system 29,800 $299.90 $299.90

Sony PS3 Release date 11-Nov 17-Nov Spring ?760GB Open pricing $599 $599

20GB 62,790 $499 $499Source: Mizuho(), 2006/09/14ps: Data from reach company as of 14 September; we estimate the price of the HDD 60GB PlayStation3 at 75,000

Wii Xbox360 PS3

1080i

Blue ray player

1080i

Xbox Live on line game

20071500

(source: KGI report,2006/09)


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Wiis selling point-Innovation

Disruptive innovation is prior to technology improvement


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4 i (iii)-iPhone


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APPLE iPhone

iPhone

iPhone

2007 2-3 500-600

Source: 2006/11/15

iPod (MP3) Handset (Voice) iPhone

(High-endMultimedia handset)

Key potential competitorW950i

GSM +WCDMA

W850i W810i

GSM

Can APPLE iPhone makebig success over handsetmarket ?

(Thinking point:

Mobile phone domain knowledge

and business model. )
http://www.mobilewhack.com/handset/apple_iphone.html


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4 i(iv)-WiMAX


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What is customers needs in the near future?

Want to use the internet servicequickly anytime and anywhere

through handheld device!

Push Wireless Technologies Commercialized!

WiMAX is next big thing?
http://photo.itbulo.com/HTML/30982.htmlhttp://creative.gettyimages.com/source/Search/42','42','2','


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Wireless coverage

What improvement on wireless market?


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10 kbit/s

100 kbit/s

1 Mbit/s

10 Mbit/s

00 Mbit/s

1 Gbit/s

End-user bit rate

2G

3G

LAN WAN

Coverage

802.11b

802.11g,a,n

MAN

HSXPA802.16d,e

WiFi Unlicensed short range radio

Main usage as a cable replacement by consumers and

enterprises

Dont expect contineous coverage with WiFi -Expensive and very hard to manage

WiMAX Licensed radio

OFDM based radio in TDD and/or FDD bands

In higher frequecies than currenty used allocations

Due to higher frequencies WiMAX will be moreexpensive than HSPA for same coverage

Still immature Products, valuechain andtechnology options

HSXPA Licensed radio

WCDMA based radio within already available

allocations

Fully integreted step in GSM evolution

Supported by more than 2 Billion subscribers and 8 outof 10 largest operators has already choosen WCDMA

Mature technology with unbeatable Economyof Scale

802.11 x/ 802.16 x/ 3G / 3.5G


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WiMAX (802.16)

standard 802.16 802.16a 802.16-2004 802.16e

( )

Last Mile & Backhaul Mobile Device

10~66GHz 2~11GHz 2~6 GHz

LOS NLOS NLOS

32~134Mbps 75Mbps 15Mbps

QPSK

16QAM

64QAM

QPSK 16QAM 64QAM256 Subcarrier OFDM

QPSK 16QAM64QAM

257

SubcarrierOFDM

1~3 Mile 4~6Mile( 30Mile) 1~3 Mile

1mile 1.6Km LOS (Line of Sight)


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More than 4i:UMPC


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Feature Phone

UMPCs market segment analysis

Source 2006/04

High

Low

Multi-functionSimple

Notebook

PMP

Tablet PC

Pocket PC

Multimedia Phone

Functionality

Mobility

UMPC

Smartphone

PDA PhonePDA

Product appeal point:Mobility (Panel size & Weight)ExpansibilityInteractive modeLonger battery lifeLower powerLow cost


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Business person/(Hospital, retailer,

Insurance, security)

Consumer

500

1000

1500

Tablet

UMPC

UMPC s price difference

price

around $900$900 $1,000~1,500$1,250$900Price

Photo

PBJ SmartCaddie

TabletKioskv700

FounderMininote

SamsungNP_Q1

ASUS R2H
http://www.design-universe.com/pdfs/automotive_en.pdf


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UMPC 07

: :

1+1 2

King is keen

CPUSystem


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Performance comparison

Model Samsung Q1 Dopod 900ARCHOS

AV7100

Sony Type

VGN-U50

Picture

UMPC PDA phone PMP Micro PC

Computing

Communication

On-line Access

Storage

Display

Price

MIC 2006 5 : (Price low) (Price high)

UMPC

PDA phone


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Beyond 4i : Arimacomm


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Taiwan mobile ODM shipment

Boundary Overlapping between


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GlobalLogistics

Design capabilityRatio of self-made

components

Boundary Overlapping betweenODM/EMS

FIH

EMS EMS+ODM ODM

B d k t i t


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Brand maker outsourcing partners

FIH

FIH

FIH

FIH

KSF of FIH
http://www.motorola.com/seamless_mobility/default.htmhttp://www.nokia.com/indexhttp://www.nokia.com/indexhttp://www.motorola.com/seamless_mobility/default.htmhttp://www.nokia.com/indexhttp://www.motorola.com/seamless_mobility/default.htmhttp://www.motorola.com/seamless_mobility/default.htmhttp://www.nokia.com/index


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KSF of FIH

CMMs providerCore value

NoteC : component/M: Module /M: Move /S : Service

Source :MIC, DEC. 2005

FIH t


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Not as bad as I thought it would become!Source: MIC, Oct.2006

Foxconn group Component Self-made ratio

FIH Ratio of self-made

components:44.6

FIH core competence

Item FIH vendor

PCB (panintl)

LCM (Innolux)

CCM (Premier)

/ (Altus)

Case (Foxconntech)

Battery /

Bluetooth

(Foxlink)

FPC (Foxconn)

EM (Foxconntech)

Keypad Sun Arrow

vs EMS: High design capability

vs ODM: High in-housecomponents

Strength


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Arima strategy thinking


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FIH

Discover Arima s blue sea strategy (ERRC)

-

Eliminate

Create

Reduce

RaiseRD

C tit F


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Competitor Focus

Target competitors

BU1:Feature phone

BU2:Smartphone/3G

FIH


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?


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P f l M di C t


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Powerful Media Center

Integrated all multi-medias in one

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