Argonne National Lab Talk Happer

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    Why Has Global Warming Paused?

    Argonne National Laboratory

    March 22, 2013

    William Happer

    Princeton University

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    Der Spiegel, Jan. 2013Klimawandel: Forscher rtseln ber Stillstand bei Erderwrmung

    http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/stillstand-der-temperatur-erklaerungen-fuer-pause-der-klimaerwaermung-a-877941.htmlhttp://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/stillstand-der-temperatur-erklaerungen-fuer-pause-der-klimaerwaermung-a-877941.html
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    Mail Online, Monday, March 18

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    After a long pause, or slight decline from the dust bowl maximima

    of the 1930s, temperatures started to rise rapidly in the 1980s.

    Temperatures have been stable since about 1998, although CO2 levels

    have continued to rise.

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=hadley+center+world+temperature+record&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=uFHDmRDbBcJv0M&tbnid=ScNSzG-wK1de6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/07/27/greenland-may-become-green-again&ei=KPk8UYHUEMbw0QH-qIH4CQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNFHxL6FJBibdWJMIJPJTKM0N3dIcA&ust=1363036548732097http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=hadley+center+world+temperature+record&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=uFHDmRDbBcJv0M&tbnid=ScNSzG-wK1de6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/07/27/greenland-may-become-green-again&ei=KPk8UYHUEMbw0QH-qIH4CQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNFHxL6FJBibdWJMIJPJTKM0N3dIcA&ust=1363036548732097
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    http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

    Satellite temperature measurements

    show little warming

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    El Nino

    Normal

    La Nina

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_lanina.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_lanina.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_normal.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_normal.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_elnino.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_elnino.png
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    The earth is almost always

    warming or cooling.

    A strong warming phase beganabout 200 years ago, long before

    CO2

    levels began to increase.

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    From John Muir's notes about his first visit to

    Glacier Bay in October, 1879.

    Glacier Bay is undoubtedly young as yet.

    Vancouver's chart, made only a century ago,

    shows no trace of it, though found admirably

    faithful in general. It seems probable,

    therefore, that even then the entire bay was

    occupied by a glacier of which all thosedescribed above, great though they are,

    were only tributaries.

    John Muir, first President of

    The Sierra Club

    From Travels in Alaska, Chapter X

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=john+muir&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5wiwIDS3U3wx4M&tbnid=q9SrPbgkTGb1qM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Muir&ei=_R4oUYPyFqq40gHWmoG4Dg&bvm=bv.42768644,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEETra6P9KWLbqK1qlfqx6MD2RNYg&ust=1361670257278472http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=john+muir&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5wiwIDS3U3wx4M&tbnid=q9SrPbgkTGb1qM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Muir&ei=_R4oUYPyFqq40gHWmoG4Dg&bvm=bv.42768644,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEETra6P9KWLbqK1qlfqx6MD2RNYg&ust=1361670257278472
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    Could much of the warming from

    1950 to 2000 have been due tonatural causes and not CO2 ?

    Solar activity?

    Cosmic rays?

    Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

    Atlantic Meridional Oscillation?

    Etc., etc.

    Lets review the basic physics!

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    The Earth from Space

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    Atmospheric Circulation

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    A NASA Website

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    MODTRAN Radiation Spectrum of Earth

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    Examples of FTIR Data from a Satellite

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    Saturation of the CO2 Band

    At current CO2 levels, the radiative

    forcing of CO2 is not proportional to the

    concentration, [CO2], but is approximatelyproportional to ln [CO2]. This is the

    celebrated logarithmic response.

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    MODTRAN Calculation of T versus C02

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    Warming from Doubling CO2(Climate Sensitivity)

    Direct Effect of CO2: about 1 C

    IPCC Most Probable: 3 C

    Most of the large discrepancy is due to

    supposed positive feedback from watervapor.

    Even the 1 C may be too big!

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    2349 cm -1

    frequency too high for

    greenhouse warming

    666 cm -1 (Satans number)

    greenhouse warming

    1388 cm-1

    no changing dipole moment,

    no absorption or emission

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    Attenuation Coefficient (e-foldings / length)

    N is the number density of CO2 molecules, and seg is the cross section of the

    transition from a lower state g to an upper state e; Geg is the lineshape function.

    Line strength (in cm)

    neg = frequency (in cm-1) of the transition, Deg = the electric dipole matrix

    element, Eg = lower-state energy, T = absolute temperature, k = Boltzmanns

    constant, h = Plancks constant, c = speed of light, T = absolute temperature.

    Partition function

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    A Lorentzian line shape

    meg = collision broadening of line; n = emission/absorption frequency

    A Voigt line shape

    Normalized line shapes

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    H d L F H i P t t

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    Hedy Lamarr Frequency-Hopping Patent

    (to defeat torpedo-jamming by Nazi ships)

    Lamarr-Anthiel system hopped

    over 88 frequencies (piano

    keyboard). US Patent 2,292,387

    CO2 can hop to any of several

    thousand vibration-rotation

    frequencies at each collision.

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=61vxplrqVxQWAM&tbnid=ifccn8ZLQYgTqM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADiRAg&url=http://colorcubic.com/2011/05/03/the-madness-of-george-antheil/&ei=tQY0UaaVNarD0QHCkoEY&psig=AFQjCNFMEUXqLbFEgnjG_AyRWwW81dRxlw&ust=1362450485922013http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=61vxplrqVxQWAM&tbnid=ifccn8ZLQYgTqM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADiRAg&url=http://colorcubic.com/2011/05/03/the-madness-of-george-antheil/&ei=tQY0UaaVNarD0QHCkoEY&psig=AFQjCNFMEUXqLbFEgnjG_AyRWwW81dRxlw&ust=1362450485922013http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=-96ofl2rgZ2OlM&tbnid=u7J3KvzSMTgAcM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/classic-movies/images/9477801/title/hedy-lamarr&ei=rwQ0UemhDeuJ0QHeg4CABA&psig=AFQjCNG2QpF78A1HcDpFpvhPo4jVwVqNtQ&ust=1362449967263810http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=-96ofl2rgZ2OlM&tbnid=u7J3KvzSMTgAcM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/classic-movies/images/9477801/title/hedy-lamarr&ei=rwQ0UemhDeuJ0QHeg4CABA&psig=AFQjCNG2QpF78A1HcDpFpvhPo4jVwVqNtQ&ust=1362449967263810
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    Schwartzschild equation for

    radia