Argonne National Lab Talk Happer

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Why Has Global Warming Paused?

Argonne National Laboratory

March 22, 2013

William Happer

Princeton University


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Der Spiegel, Jan. 2013Klimawandel: Forscher rtseln ber Stillstand bei Erderwrmung
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/stillstand-der-temperatur-erklaerungen-fuer-pause-der-klimaerwaermung-a-877941.htmlhttp://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/stillstand-der-temperatur-erklaerungen-fuer-pause-der-klimaerwaermung-a-877941.html


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Mail Online, Monday, March 18


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After a long pause, or slight decline from the dust bowl maximima

of the 1930s, temperatures started to rise rapidly in the 1980s.

Temperatures have been stable since about 1998, although CO2 levels

have continued to rise.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=hadley+center+world+temperature+record&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=uFHDmRDbBcJv0M&tbnid=ScNSzG-wK1de6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/07/27/greenland-may-become-green-again&ei=KPk8UYHUEMbw0QH-qIH4CQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNFHxL6FJBibdWJMIJPJTKM0N3dIcA&ust=1363036548732097http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=hadley+center+world+temperature+record&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=uFHDmRDbBcJv0M&tbnid=ScNSzG-wK1de6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/07/27/greenland-may-become-green-again&ei=KPk8UYHUEMbw0QH-qIH4CQ&bvm=bv.43287494,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNFHxL6FJBibdWJMIJPJTKM0N3dIcA&ust=1363036548732097


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http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Satellite temperature measurements

show little warming


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El Nino

Normal

La Nina
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_lanina.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_lanina.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_normal.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_normal.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_elnino.pnghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Enso_elnino.png


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The earth is almost always

warming or cooling.

A strong warming phase beganabout 200 years ago, long before

CO2

levels began to increase.


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From John Muir's notes about his first visit to

Glacier Bay in October, 1879.

Glacier Bay is undoubtedly young as yet.

Vancouver's chart, made only a century ago,

shows no trace of it, though found admirably

faithful in general. It seems probable,

therefore, that even then the entire bay was

occupied by a glacier of which all thosedescribed above, great though they are,

were only tributaries.

John Muir, first President of

The Sierra Club

From Travels in Alaska, Chapter X
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=john+muir&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5wiwIDS3U3wx4M&tbnid=q9SrPbgkTGb1qM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Muir&ei=_R4oUYPyFqq40gHWmoG4Dg&bvm=bv.42768644,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEETra6P9KWLbqK1qlfqx6MD2RNYg&ust=1361670257278472http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=john+muir&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5wiwIDS3U3wx4M&tbnid=q9SrPbgkTGb1qM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Muir&ei=_R4oUYPyFqq40gHWmoG4Dg&bvm=bv.42768644,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEETra6P9KWLbqK1qlfqx6MD2RNYg&ust=1361670257278472


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Could much of the warming from

1950 to 2000 have been due tonatural causes and not CO2 ?

Solar activity?

Cosmic rays?

Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

Atlantic Meridional Oscillation?

Etc., etc.

Lets review the basic physics!


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The Earth from Space


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Atmospheric Circulation


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A NASA Website


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MODTRAN Radiation Spectrum of Earth


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Examples of FTIR Data from a Satellite


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Saturation of the CO2 Band

At current CO2 levels, the radiative

forcing of CO2 is not proportional to the

concentration, [CO2], but is approximatelyproportional to ln [CO2]. This is the

celebrated logarithmic response.


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MODTRAN Calculation of T versus C02


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Warming from Doubling CO2(Climate Sensitivity)

Direct Effect of CO2: about 1 C

IPCC Most Probable: 3 C

Most of the large discrepancy is due to

supposed positive feedback from watervapor.

Even the 1 C may be too big!


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2349 cm -1

frequency too high for

greenhouse warming

666 cm -1 (Satans number)

greenhouse warming

1388 cm-1

no changing dipole moment,

no absorption or emission


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Attenuation Coefficient (e-foldings / length)

N is the number density of CO2 molecules, and seg is the cross section of the

transition from a lower state g to an upper state e; Geg is the lineshape function.

Line strength (in cm)

neg = frequency (in cm-1) of the transition, Deg = the electric dipole matrix

element, Eg = lower-state energy, T = absolute temperature, k = Boltzmanns

constant, h = Plancks constant, c = speed of light, T = absolute temperature.

Partition function


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A Lorentzian line shape

meg = collision broadening of line; n = emission/absorption frequency

A Voigt line shape

Normalized line shapes


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H d L F H i P t t


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Hedy Lamarr Frequency-Hopping Patent

(to defeat torpedo-jamming by Nazi ships)

Lamarr-Anthiel system hopped

over 88 frequencies (piano

keyboard). US Patent 2,292,387

CO2 can hop to any of several

thousand vibration-rotation

frequencies at each collision.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=61vxplrqVxQWAM&tbnid=ifccn8ZLQYgTqM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADiRAg&url=http://colorcubic.com/2011/05/03/the-madness-of-george-antheil/&ei=tQY0UaaVNarD0QHCkoEY&psig=AFQjCNFMEUXqLbFEgnjG_AyRWwW81dRxlw&ust=1362450485922013http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=61vxplrqVxQWAM&tbnid=ifccn8ZLQYgTqM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADiRAg&url=http://colorcubic.com/2011/05/03/the-madness-of-george-antheil/&ei=tQY0UaaVNarD0QHCkoEY&psig=AFQjCNFMEUXqLbFEgnjG_AyRWwW81dRxlw&ust=1362450485922013http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=-96ofl2rgZ2OlM&tbnid=u7J3KvzSMTgAcM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/classic-movies/images/9477801/title/hedy-lamarr&ei=rwQ0UemhDeuJ0QHeg4CABA&psig=AFQjCNG2QpF78A1HcDpFpvhPo4jVwVqNtQ&ust=1362449967263810http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=-96ofl2rgZ2OlM&tbnid=u7J3KvzSMTgAcM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/classic-movies/images/9477801/title/hedy-lamarr&ei=rwQ0UemhDeuJ0QHeg4CABA&psig=AFQjCNG2QpF78A1HcDpFpvhPo4jVwVqNtQ&ust=1362449967263810


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Schwartzschild equation for

radiant intensity from earth.

Planck brightness

Attenuation rate

Optical depth to space


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Downwelling Flux at the Surface

Planck Brightness

Optical Depth from Surface to Altitude z


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390 ppm CO2


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780 ppm CO2


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Using Voigt Profiles Increases

The Radiative-Forcing IncrementFrom Doubling CO2 By A Factor

~1.4

But far wing absorption from Voigtprofiles does not exist!


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Hartmann, Boulet and Robert, Collisional Effects on Molecular Spectra, Elsevier, 2008

Voigt Line Shapes Dont Work in Far Wings!

M


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Mail Online, Monday, March 18


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Why has global warming paused?

Qualitatively, more CO2 almost certainly causes some warming.

Complicated physics makes it difficult to quantify the warming.

Essentially all of the warming and coolings before 1900 were natural.

Much of the warming of the past century was probably natural.

The radiative forcing from more CO2 has probably been overestimated.

One possible reason, poorly modelled far-wing lineshapes, has been discussed.

Feedback from water vapor and clouds may have been over-estimated too.

Contributions from long term natural cycles have probably been underestimated:

The Sun

Cosmic Rays

Pacific Decadal OscillationAtlantic Meridional Oscillation

etc., etc.


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I am in revolt against the age-old lie that the

majority is always right.

Henrik Ibsen,An Enemy of the People

Closing Thought

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