AREVA RISK MANAGEMENT CONSULTING

Application of Systematic Planning and Visual Sample Plan Software

Steven Wilcox 14th June 2016

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11 Years in the Nuclear IndustrySteven Wilcox

Profile:

Steven has gained 11 years experience of environmental work through working directly within the nuclear industry. His work has primarily focussed on systematic planning and assessment (radiological and non-radiological) using the USEPA,s systematic planning process. Steven was part of a team that introduced this process in to the UK, the process known as Data Quality Objectives is a seven step planning process that aids in the development of statistical and non-statistical sampling designs.

• DQO Facilitator for a major site de-licensing project

• Development and delivery of a UK 5-day residential Training course.

• Development and Delivery of Sampling Plans for CBRN (Biological & Chemical)

• DQO support for various projects within the UK

• DQO support for major Characterisation project

• Appointed by PNNL as a beta tester for VSP, the only person in the UK to have this privilege, which enables him to direct the development to take into account of UK usage

• Data Quality Objective studies (Facilitation, Development, Training)

• Sampling and analysis identification, Data processing, document review, statistical analysis and assessment

steven.wilcox@arevarmc.com

Telephone: 01235 555755

Contact Email:

Experience: Key Skills areas:

Agenda

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Systematic Planning

• Life Cycle

• Why

• How

Support Tools

• Visual Sample Plan

Sample Collection

Sample Assessment

Applications

How Many Samples?

How many samples do I need?

Always the first question we are asked.

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5? or 50?

Systematic PlanningLife Cycle

Planning

Implementation

Assessment

Decision

Survey design developed and documented

Survey design is implemented

Data are validated to ensure that the resultscollected support the survey objectives

Decisions made based on the conclusionsdrawn from the assessment process

Systematic planning

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Why?

First Level Avoids wasting time and money

Just the right amount of data is collected

Samples taken represent the whole population

Easily balance resources with cost

Minimises useless data

Promotes Communication

Reduces risk of third-party challenges

Reduces unnecessary re-work / clean up

Systematic planning

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How?

Sample and Analysis Plans

Full TransparencyUses Proven

Statistical techniques

Partnership Approach

Why Plan?

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Provides a framework to correctly define the criteria that the

data collection design should satisfy

Helps to assure the type, quantity, and quality of data used in a decision is appropriate

Project managers do not commit resources to collecting data that

will not ultimately be used

Provides clarity to all stakeholders on the information to be collected and how it will be used.

One type of structured planning process for collection of "good"environmental data to support decision-making is the “Data Quality Objective” (DQO) methodology.

Seven Logical steps of DQO

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State the ProblemIdentify the Aims

of the Study

Identify Information

Inputs

Develop the

Sampling Design

Specify Performance/

Acceptance Criteria

Develop Analytical

Approach

Define Boundaries

of the Study

May need to return to prior steps asnew data and information become

available

DQO is Designed to Answer.....

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Why is the data

needed?

What type of data

is needed?

Were should the data

be collected?

How will the data

be used?

When should the data

Be collected?

How often are you

willing to make errors ?

How much data

is needed?

PLANNING

PHASE

Support Tool

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Associated software to determine the number and location of samples to support confident, statistically defensible decisions.

Incorporates Data Quality Assessment

Free VSP Download at http://vsp.pnl.gov

Visual Sample Plan (VSP)

Why VSP

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Supports and helps underpin the DQO (Planning) methodology

Excellent visualisation

User friendly

Removes the guess work from deciding on samples

Enabled the use of complex statistical equations

• through a guided interface (expert mentor)• produced a visual output of the number and locations of samples required• led to a statistically defensible sampling strategy

Electronic records for the future

Supports defensible decisions

Saves time (example: report generator)

Saves money (less sample numbers)

Identified that its not a “black-box”

VSP Features

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Supports various statistical sampling options • Simple random sampling• Systematic grid sampling• Sequential sampling • Collaborative sampling• Stratified sampling• Rank-set sampling• Adaptive cluster sampling• Continuous transect sampling• Judgmental sampling• Combined judgmental and probabilistic sampling• Item sampling

Indoor Surface Sampling and Analysis

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Accurate 3-D Representations

Zoning of Areas

Indoor Coordinate System

Furniture Placement/Sampling

Sample Results Visualized

Wipe or Point Samples

dxf or shp files imported/exported

Outdoor Sampling and Analysis

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Maps, Photos/Images

Maintains Coordinate System

Output For GPS

Multiple Analytes and Sample Areas

Item Sampling

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How Many Items Should I Sample?

Drums, Folders, Property, Equipment, Widgets….

X% Confident that Y% Are Acceptable

4 Options Available

• Using Prior Knowledge• Judgment w/ Random• Probabilistic Only• Allow Some Unacceptable

Sampling and Analysis Over Time

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Sample requirements for confidently detecting trends

Fitting linear and exponential trends

Evaluating consistency of trends over time

Projections of when target concentration will be obtained

Adjustments for seasonal effects

Sampling frequency reduction analyses

Spatial Sampling and Analysis

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Geospatial Kriging

Spatial sample/well redundancy analysis

Optimization of sample/well placement

Maps of probability of exceeding concentration threshold

Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) Sites

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Transect design for detection of target areas

Target area flagging, delineation, anomaly density mapping and estimation

Post-remediation verification sampling

This Method has been developed for radiological Surveys

Building The Sample Plan

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Using Visual Sample Plan

Construct The Sampling Area(s)

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Identify Possible Risks

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Classification 1

• Zone/area is known or assumed to be contaminated (e.g. I don’t need to be statically confidence / Collect a few samples)

Classification 2

• Zone/area is likely to be contaminated (e.g. I want 99% confidence)

Classification 3

• Zone/area is unlikely to be contaminated (e.g. I want 95% confidence)

Classification 4

• Zone/area is known or assumed not to be contaminated (e.g. I will just collected a few non-statistical samples)

THIS WILL ALLOW YOU TO ASSIGN A DIFFERENT SAMPLING DESIGN OR ADJUST YOUR CONFIDENCE LEVELS

Select Zone and Choose The Sampling Goal of the Study

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Based on objective(s) set within your planning phase

Generate Sampling Plan

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Add Multiple Floors

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Add a Background Picture

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Adding More Detail

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Viewing More Detail

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(3D Walk round)

Undertake Sample Collection

&Sample Analysis

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Collect the Samples

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Undertake AssessmentUndertake Assessment of

Sample Results

Data Quality Assessment

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(DQA)

Review DQO and

Sampling Design

Conduct Preliminary

Data ReviewSelect Statistical

Test

Draw conclusions

from the Data

Verify the

AssumptionsDQA involves Five Steps

Add Results from Multiple Analysis

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View the Summary Statistics

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View the Data Plots

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Test the Sample Results

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Generate an Assessment Report

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Applications

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UK

• Waste Characterisation• Site Clearance• Site De-licensing• Response and Recovery of Chemical/Biological/Radiation Terrorist Event

US

• Environmental Characterization and Remediation • Environmental Monitoring • Response and Recovery of Chemical/Biological/Radiation Terrorist Event• Footprint Reduction and Remediation of Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) • Sites Sampling of Soils, Buildings, Groundwater, Sediment, Surface Water,

Subsurface Layers

Any time samples are collected to make a decision

This process can be USED

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Questions?

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