Are We Drowning in Data? - Vita Plus... · – Pedometers – Activity – Rumination Time –...

12/16/2013

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Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013

Are We Drowning in Data?

Which Metrics Should I Monitor?

Randall Greenfield

2013 Vita Plus Dairy Summit


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70 Data Points/Lacta on →7,000 Data Points/Lactation

DHM, 9/30

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Drowning in Data?

• More Sophisticated Real-Time Cow Data Every Day

– Daily Milk Weights

– Conductivity

– Milk Components

– Pedometers

– Activity

– Rumination Time

– Components

– Dry Matter Intakes

– Milking Times/Flows

– Rumen pH

– Body Temperature

– Genomic Scores

– Body Weights


Drowning in Data?

• “You should know your”:– DMI, FE, IOFC

– DIM, VWP, HDR, CR, PR

– FCM, ECM, MCM, MLM, ME

– TOR, DR, DOA

– ROA, ROE, EBITDA

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Topics

• Feed Costs

• Reproduction

• Animal Flow

• Production

• $$Profitability


Feeding

• Costs are almost impossible to compare across herds– Forage source/quality

– Cost or Market Value?

– All diets included (calves, heifers, dry cows?)

– Feed Markets/Contracts

– Wet byproducts

• Accrual, Enterprise Accounting– ‘Dairy’ buys feed from ‘Farm’

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Feeding

• Total Feed Costs– Per head; Per cwt

• Purchased Feed Costs

• Milk to Feed Ratio

• Feed Efficiency

• Income Over Feed Costs


Feeding• Simple measure of feed

costs per head (total or purchased)– No production information

– A constantly moving target

• Feed costs per cwt are better, but cost only– No value of production

(components)

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Feeding

• Dairy Feed Efficiency– Lb milk/lb DMI

– Great idea

– Crude measure

– No $$ sensitivity

– Not easy to manipulate

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Feeding

• Income Over Feed Costs– Probably the best

measure we have

– Need to use accurate feed costs

– Need to use a relatively stable milk price

• 12-mo average price built with components?


Feeding

• A few examples– Fat = $1.66/lb

– Prot = $3.282/lb

– OS = 5.8%; $0.411/lb

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FeedingA B

Lb Milk 90 85

Fat% 3.50% 3.80%

Prot% 3.00% 3.20%

Feed Cost, $/hd $6.50 $6.50

Feed Cost, $/cwt $7.22 $7.65

IOFC, $/hd $9.74 $9.82


FeedingA B

Lb Milk 88 90

Fat% 3.80% 3.80%

Prot% 3.20% 3.20%

Feed Cost, $/hd $6.50 $6.65

Feed Cost, $/cwt $7.39 $7.39

IOFC, $/hd $11.81 $11.81

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FeedingA B

Lb Milk 82 92

Fat% 3.80% 3.60%

Prot% 3.20% 3.10%

Feed Cost, $/hd $6.65 $6.80

Feed Cost, $/cwt $8.11 $7.39

IOFC, $/hd $11.08 $11.14


Feeding

• IOFC probably the best measure

• Keep a history of your farm’s numbers

• Difficult to compare across farms

• Home-grown feeds are

difficult – cost vs. value

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Reproduction

• Why do you want to get your cows/hfrs pregnant?– Improve herd genetics?

– Provide replacements for culled cattle?

– Lower or keep DIM low (more milk)?

– Grow herd size?

– Sell Breeding Stock?


Reproduction

• Heat Detection Rate, Service Rate, Submission Rate, Insemination Intensity

• Conception Rate

• Voluntary Waiting Period

• Pregnancy Rate

• Calving Interval

• DIM, Days Open

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Reproduction


Reproduction

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Reproduction

• Service Rate = 2922/4758 = 61%

• Preg Rate = 1029/4637 = 22%

• What about Aborts?– Can be wide differences between farms

– Preg Check frequency; Preg Check timing; Actual Abortion Rate

• Abortion Rate = 118/1029 = 11%

• Effective Preg Rate = (1029-118)/4637 =20%


Reproduction

Conception Rate = 1301/(1301+2125) = 38%

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Reproduction

• Preg Rate = ultimate measure of repro efficiency

• More important for non-bST herds to be efficient– Late lactation pregnancies = no milk

• Herds with poor PR may still be generating adequate replacement rates if not growing– Preg Inventory an important metric


Reproduction

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Reproduction

• Herds with excellent PRs (and/or sexed semen?) need a plan to profit from extra replacements– Milk all of them? What if 60% 1st Lact?

– Sell springers?


Dairy A – No Sexed Semen

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

SS Births

Survival

Rep Rate

% Lact1

Herd Size

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Dairy B – Sexed Semen

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

0.0%

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20.0%

30.0%

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90.0%

100.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

SS Births

Survival

Rep Rate

% Lact1

Herd Size


Animal Flow

• Cull Rate; Turnover Rate

• Number of cattle that left the herd divided by the avgcattle present in the same period of time

• Turnover Rate vs. Replacement Rate– Buying animals to maintain

herd size = problem

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Animal Flow

• Voluntary or Involuntary?– Most important

distinctions are Sold or Dead ; ‘Dairy’ or not

– By Parity (Lact=1)

• 12-month Rolling –removes seasonality


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Production

• Testday milk production

• RHA

• Bulk tank average

• Fat%

• Prot%

• FCM; ECM; MCM™?

• Follow the $$...


Production

• Milk Check Graphic

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Production – October, 2013

• Fluid $/cwt $– OS $0.39 $34,888

– Volume $1.00 $15,783

– PPD $0.33 $5,208

– Quality $0.34 $5,366

– SCC/Prot (½) $0.06 $995

– Total $3.94 $62,241



$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241

– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453

– Protein $10.90 $172,030

– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724

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$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241

– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453

– Protein $10.90 $172,030

– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724



$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241

– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453

– Protein $10.90 $172,030

– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724

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$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241

– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453

– Protein $10.90 $172,030

– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724



$/cwt %– Fluid (total) $3.94 18.7%

– Butterfat $6.24 29.6%

– Protein $10.90 51.7%

– TOTAL $21.08 100%

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Production – July, 2013

$/cwt %– Fluid (total) $3.97 21.1%

– Butterfat $5.27 28.0%

– Protein $9.60 51.0%

– TOTAL $18.84 100%


Production – March, 2010

Class III = $12.78 $/cwt %– Fluid (total) $2.84 19.4%

– Butterfat $5.27 36.1%

– Protein $6.50 44.5%

– TOTAL $14.61 100%

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Monthly Share of Milk Check

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F+P

Fluid


% of Recent Milk Check

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A B C D E F

%Fluid

%F+P

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Production

• In FMMO 30– ~20% of milk check from ‘fluid’

– ~80% of milk check fat + protein

• Our production metric should focus on lb fat + lb protein– FCM, ECM, SCM, MCM™, or CY?

– All per cow measures


Production

• FCM = Fat Corrected Milk

• ECM = Energy Corrected Milk

• SCM = Solids Corrected Milk

• MCM™ = Money Corrected Milk

• CY = Cheese Yield

• All of these are in lb/cow

• Why Not Just lb fat + lb protein/cow?– Or per stall; per parlor stall, etc.

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Profitability

• Cash Flow (Profit/Loss; Income Statement)– Current Year – Short

Term

– Net Income (black or red)

– Breakeven Milk Price• Account for Basis

• Class III

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Profitability

• Cash Flow (Profit/Loss; Income Statement)– Operating Expenses as

% of Gross Income

– Enough left to pay debt?


Profitability

• Balance Sheet– Long Term

– How much Debt?• Debt/cow

• Debt/cwt

• P&I Pmts/cwt

– Equity Position• How much of your assets do

you own vs. lender?

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Profitability

• Balance Sheet– Net Worth or Equity

• Assets – Liabilities

• What’s left after selling everything?

• Conservative Asset Values

• Earned Equity vs Asset Appreciation

– Change in Net Worth• Year to year


Profitability

• Cash Flow/Balance Sheet– Return on Assets

• Net Income/Assets

• Interest on a CD

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Summary

• Unlimited sources and data metrics for your dairy

• Find some key ones for your business

• Most useful if you track them over time


Questions?

Are We Drowning in Data? - Vita Plus... · – Pedometers – Activity – Rumination Time –...

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