School of BusinessSchool of Business

Are Students Dropping Out or Dragging Out the College

Experience? &Modeling the Enrollment Path

Leslie S. Stratton & James N. Wetzel

Virginia Commonwealth UniversityResearch funded in large part by an AIR Research Grant

2012 Presentation at NEAIR Conference

School of Business

Plan•Motivation•Briefly review some literature •Data•Goals of each paper•Results of Paper #1•Results of Paper #2•Conclusion

School of Business

Motivation•Completion rates are a concern.

▫ Enrollment is up, but graduation rate is unchanged (63%). 45% for African Americans, 54% for Hispanics, 54% for low

income, and 53% for first generation college students. •Benefits accrue primarily upon graduation. •Costs are incurred upon enrollment.

▫Shared by students/families and public.•Dept of Education is targeting schools with

low graduation rates.

School of Business

Literature•Studies of college outcomes are

proliferating. •Many control for socioeconomic status:

▫ Paulsen, St. John (2002), Swail, Cabrera, Lee (2004), Ishitani (2003, 2006), Titus (2006), … review by Kuh et al. (2006)

& find these populations are disadvantaged.

•Controlling for academic background is even more important ▫ Adelman 2004, Carneiro & Heckman 2002 find

background trumps race/ethnicity.

School of Business

Literature•But, many studies are

▫based on data from 1 university,▫do not adequately control for academic

background, or▫designate success as graduation within a

particular time horizon.•Not all those who have not graduated in X

years have given up. •Many students enroll PT, stop out,

transfer.

School of Business

Contributions of 1st Paper• Multi-institution study.• Controls for SES & academic

background/ability.• Distinguishes between those not enrolled and

those still enrolled at 6 year mark.

2nd Paper • Also controls for enrollment path.

School of Business

Data•1996/2001 US Beginning Postsecondary

Survey•National sample of those beginning in

1995-96 academic year. •Restrict sample to those:

▫Who are followed through 2001▫Who initially attend 4 year institutions▫Who are age 23- & from US

•Sample of about 5820 students.

School of Business

Research Questions: Paper #1•Most studies compare graduates with

non-graduates, BUT•1) How common is persistence at the 6

year mark? •2) How does distinguishing between

those still enrolled and those not enrolled alter results of college outcome models?

School of Business

Covariates I•Demographics:

▫Gender▫Race/Ethnicity▫Age ▫Marital status ▫Parental status▫Parents’ education▫Household income

School of Business

Covariates II•Academic background/ability:

▫Standardized test scores▫High school GPA▫High school program of study

•Unemployment rate.

All observed at time of matriculation.

School of Business

Question 1: How common is persistence at the 6 year mark?

•63.2% have graduated.•23.4% are not enrolled.•13.4% are still enrolled.

•36% of those who have not graduated are still enrolled in last term observed!

•Persistence is common!

School of Business

Question 2: How does controlling for persistence alter

outcome models?•Standard analyses use logit specification

to distinguish between graduates and non-graduates.

•We use a MNL model to distinguish among 3 outcomes: graduation, persistence, drop out.

School of Business

Distinguishing between Persistence and Non-Enrollment is

Important• Statistically persistence is a distinct state. • Results by SES:

▫Disadvantaged students are less likely to graduate.

▫Hispanics are persisting. ▫1st Generation college students are dropping

out.▫African Americans and Women are split. ▫Lower income students have mixed results.

School of Business

Distinguishing between Persistence and Non-Enrollment is

Important• Biggest Factors = Academic Background

▫Those with less than stellar high school GPAs are substantially less likely to have graduated. Between 15 and 25% of these non-graduates are

still enrolled. ▫Math background and SAT scores have a

smaller marginal effect on graduation, but a similar association with persistence.

School of Business

Evidence re-Graduation• Analysis of similar sample from

Baccalaureate and Beyond survey suggests half of those still enrolled may graduate within a few years.

• Analyses of college outcomes should look at persistence!

• Is ‘dragging out’ worthwhile?

School of Business

Why the Differences? •Enrollment paths are different.

▫Hispanics are more likely to enroll part-time.

▫Income/household constraints may favor part-time or stop out behavior.

▫Less prepared students may take more remedial classes, fewer courses/term.

•Can only address this by modeling path as well as outcome 2nd Paper.

School of Business

What Path Looks Like•Initial Enrollment

▫~ 4% Part-time, 96% Full-time.•1 Year Mark

▫~ 11% Not Enrolled, 4% Part-time, 85% Full-time.

•3 Year Mark▫~19% NT, 7% PT, 71% FT, and 2%

Graduated. •5 Year Mark

▫~ 22% NT, 5% PT, 13% FT, and 60% Graduated.

School of Business

What Path Looks Like

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.50%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Enrollment Status over TimeWeighted

Grad

FT

PT

NT

Years following Matriculation

School of Business

A Discrete Time Hazard of Enrollment

• Takes initial FT/PT enrollment decision as given. • Models transitions from:

▫FT to FT, PT, NT, & graduation▫PT to FT, PT, NT, & graduation▫NT to FT, PT, & NT.

• Graduation is treated as an absorbing state.

School of Business

Specification• Uses a MNL specification to model these

movements.

• Models transitions from state j to state k as a function of ▫X = individual specific & matriculation

characteristics, ▫Wt = time varying covariates,▫Zt = past behavior, & ▫Θ captures unobserved heterogeneity.

School of Business

Specification▫X includes ~ all covariates from paper 1 + info

on first term attended (PT/FT, Spring/Fall, Semester/Quarter, …),

▫Wt includes unemployment level and change, college grades, family chars,

▫Zt includes quadratic in time spent enrolled PT, FT, NT in past, &

▫Θ is iid normal.

School of Business

Results: Predicted Path•Fixes Wt – College grades generally rise.

•Initial Enrollment: Fixed.•1 Year Mark

▫~ 12% Not Enrolled, 5% Part-time, 83% Full-time.

•3 Year Mark▫~20% NT, 7% PT, 72% FT, and 2% Graduated.

•5 Year Mark

▫~ 27% NT, 6% PT, 17% FT, and 50% Graduated.

More NT & FT, Less Graduated

School of Business

Results: Predicted Path

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 350%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Predicted Enrollment StatusUR Changes

Grad

FT

PT

NT

Time

School of Business

Results: Socio-economic indicators• Hispanics spend more time PT and NT than non-

Hispanics.• 1st Gen spend more time PT and NT than non-1st

Gen. • Blacks spend more time FT, but less time NT

than whites.• Those from lower income HHs, spend more time

NT.

• Even controlling for path, all have a lower probability of graduating.

School of Business

Results: Educational Background• Still much more important, especially high

school grades.• Low performers spend less time FT, more NT and

PT.

• Controlling for path, effect on probability of graduation is modest.

School of Business

Results: Unemployment Rate•Both level of unemployment and recent

changes are significant. •Consistent with an opportunity cost

argument:• A lower level of unemployment increases NT,

while decreasing PT & FT. Little change in graduation rate.

• Decreases in the unemployment rate appear to reduce PT enrollment and speed graduation.

School of Business

General Conclusions • Persistence 6 years after matriculation is

substantial and should be recognized and studied. - Is dragging out the college experience wise?

• Enrollment paths constitute a complex problem. ▫Disadvantaged groups appear to have lower

graduation rates, even controlling for path. ▫Academic background may play a greater role

in driving the path rather than the outcome. ▫Economic conditions will change paths and

outcomes.

School of Business

Questions?