Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

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Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real? Graeme T. Lloyd

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Transcript of Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

Page 1: Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

Graeme T. Lloyd

Page 2: Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

Modern diversity is vast…

Page 3: Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

…but all stems from a single ancestor

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How did life get so diverse?

LastUniversalCommonAncestor

?

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How did life get so diverse?

LastUniversalCommonAncestor

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Extant vs. fossil record

Red – lineage through time plot based on extant data only

Navy – lineage through time plot based on fossil data

Ezard et al. 2011

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Extant vs. fossil record

Near et al. 2012

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Earliest diversity curves

Agassiz 1843

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Earliest diversity curves

Philips 1860

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Early diversity curves

Valentine 1970

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But can we trust the curves?

Miller 2009, after Raup 1972

David Raup

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Raup’s two solutions

Subsampling

Modeling

Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012

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Sepkoski’s compendia

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The consensus paper

Sepkoski et al. 1981

Median trace fossil assemblage richness

Species richness(Zoological record data)

David Raup

Median open-marinecommunity species richness

Dolf Seilacher

Richard Bambach

Genus diversityDavid Raup

Family diversityJack Sepkoski

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Collating the data –early curves2000s: a return to Raup’s solutions

Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001

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Collating the data –early curves2000s: a return to Raup’s solutions

Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001

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Collating the data –early curvesSubsampling

Alroy et al. 2008 Alroy 2010

Page 18: Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

Collating the data –early curvesModeling

Smith and McGowan 2007

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Collating the data –early curvesCommon cause hypothesis

Peters 2005

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Collating the data –early curves(Common) causal arrows

Genera/Packages

Sea-level

O

C

S

Sr

Hannisdal and Peters 2011

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Collating the data –early curvesThe rest of the story…

Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial

? ?

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Collating the data –early curvesDinosaurs

Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial

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Collating the data –early curvesDinosaurs - sampling

Taxonomic diversity

Phylogenetic diversity

Dinosaur-bearing formations

Dinosaur-bearing localities

Palaeoarea covered

Benton et al. 2011

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Collating the data –early curvesDinosaurs - subsampling

Lloyd et al. 2008

Raw

Raw + ghosts

Subsampled

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Collating the data –early curvesDinosaurs - modeling

Lloyd 2012

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Collating the data –early curvesDinosaurs – common cause

Butler et al. 2011

Packages

Haq SL

Miller SL

Non-marinesurface area

DBFs

DBCs

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores

Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores

Lloyd et al. 2012

Page 29: Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?

Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores - database

Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP

Green pins – Land-based localities

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – sp.:genus

Lloyd et al. 2012

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – sp.:genus

Lloyd et al. 2012

Species:Genus

N Sites

N Authors

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – sp.:genus

Lloyd et al. 2012

Rarefied with respect to N localities Rarefied with respect to N taxonomists

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores

vs.

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – species

Lloyd et al. 2012

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – sampling

Lloyd et al. 2012

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – correlation

Lloyd et al. 2012

rho = 0.02

rho = 0.48rho = 0.40

richness

richness

sampling

sampling

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – subsampling

Lloyd et al. 2012

J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng

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Collating the data –early curvesCoccolithophores – modeling

Lloyd et al. 2012

J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes

Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – old curves

Agassiz 1843

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – old curves

Thomson 1977

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Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988

Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002

Collating the data –early curvesFishes – global curves

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988

Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002

Collating the data –early curvesFishes – global curves

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

R^2 = 0.91

R^2 = 0.78

R^2

= 0.

74

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Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988

Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002

Collating the data –early curvesFishes – global curves

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

R^2 = -0.21

R^2 = 0.25

R^2 = -0.15

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes - database

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – collector curve

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – grids sampled

1 2 3 4

0.5-degree net Plot localities Identify grids Count grids

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – raw diversity

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – proxies

Formations

Localities

Grids

Lloyd and Friedman,submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – correlations

Formations

Localities Grids

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

rho = 0.64

rho = 0.59

rho

= 0.

71

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – multivariate modeling

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – subsampling

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – modeling

Lloyd and Friedman,submitted

Formations

Localities

Grids

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – cartilage vs. bone

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – cartilage vs. bone

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted

Formations

Localities

Grids

rho = 0.83

rho = 0.53

rho = 0.56

rho = 0.44

rho = 0.20

rho = 0.21

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Collating the data –early curvesConclusions

Sampling bias

Common cause

Sampling bias

?

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Collating the data –early curvesAcknowledgements

AndrewSmith

PaulPearson

JeremyYoung

MichaelBenton

SteveBrusatte

KatieDavis

DaveHone

RachelJennings

DavidePisani

MarcelloRuta

ManabuSakamot

o

JamesTarver

MattFriedman

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Collating the data –early curvesFishes – bone vs. cartilage

Lloyd and Friedman, submitted