Are North Carolina Cities Sustainable?

Are North Carolina Cities Sustainable?Adrian MooreVice PresidentReason Foundation

Why Are We Here?

NCPopChg

3792.92087.2

48411791.4

5500.62548.7

58022605

Metropolitan Areas

Rural Areas

Thousands

Population of North Carolina

PopGrowth

0.4297375895

0.5297002294

0.2480835569

Population Growth Rates in North Carolina: 1980-2003

PopShare

2009.1

517.8

Share of Population Growth:Metropolitan Areas v. Rural Areas

Counties

Sq. MilesThousandsPeople Per Square Mile

CountyMetro AreaLand AreaPop 1980Pop 1990Pop 2000Pop 2003ChangeChg80-03Density80Density03

BuncombeAshville656160.9174.6206.321352.132.4%245325

HaywoodAshville55446.5463.954558.518.3%8499

HendersonAshville37458.669.789.29435.460.4%157251

MadisonAshville44916.816.919.6203.219.0%3745

AnsonCharlotte53225.623.525.325-0.6-2.3%4847

CabarrusCharlotte36485.998.9131.114357.166.5%236393

GastonCharlotte356162.6174.8190.419330.416.0%1,0891,104

MecklenburgCharlotte526404.3511.2695.5752347.786.0%7691,430

UnionCharlotte63770.484.2123.714675.6107.4%111229

York (SC)Charlotte682106.7131.5164.617871.366.8%156261

ChathamDurham68333.438.949.35521.664.7%4981

DurhamDurham290152.2181.8223.323784.855.7%525817

OrangeDurham40077.193.711811840.953.0%193295

PersonDurham39229.230.235.6377.826.7%7494

CumberlandFayetteville653247.2274.7302.930456.823.0%379466

HokeFayetteville39120.422.933.63817.686.3%5297

WayneGoldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%176204

GuilfordGreensboro649317.2347.4421434116.836.8%489669

RandalphGreensboro78791.3106.6130.513543.747.9%116172

RockinghamGreensboro56683.486.191.9939.611.5%147164

GreeneGreenville26516.115.419203.924.2%6175

PittGreenville65290.1108.5133.813948.954.3%138213

AlexanderHickory-Lenoir2602527.533.6351040.0%96135

BurkeHickory-Lenoir50772.575.789.19017.524.1%143178

CaldwellHickory-Lenoir47267.770.777.47911.316.7%143167

CatawbaHickory-Lenoir400105.2118.4141.714741.839.7%263368

OnslowJacksonville767112.8149.8150.414835.231.2%147193

FranklinRaleigh-Cary49230.136.447.35221.972.8%61106

JohnstonRaleigh-Cary79270.681.312213766.494.1%89173

WakeRaleigh-Cary832301.4426.3627.8696394.6130.9%362837

EdgecombeRocky Mount5055656.755.655-1-1.8%111109

NashRocky Mount54067.276.787.49022.833.9%124167

BrunswickWilmington85535.85173.18246.2129.1%4296

New HanoverWilmington199103.5120.3160.316864.562.3%520844

PenderWilmington87122.328.941.14421.797.3%2651

DavieWinston-Salem26524.627.934.83712.450.4%93140

ForsythWinston-Salem410243.7265.6306.131874.330.5%594776

StokesWinston-Salem45233.137.244.74511.936.0%73100

YadkinWinston-Salem33628.430.536.3378.630.3%85110

North Carolina

State48,7115,880.16,632.48,049.38,407.02,52743.0%121173

Metro Area20,3663,7934,8415,5015,8022,00953.0%186285

Rural28,3452,0871,7912,5492,60551824.8%7492

% Metro41.8%64.5%73.0%68.3%69.0%79.5%

citydensity

2414.3623607099

2093.023255814

2187.2015281757

2766.1431064572

1744.7199265381

People Per Square Mile

Population Density of Major North Carolina Cities: 2003

travtime

2127.9

25.144.1

23.933

2135

Auto Travel Time

Transit Travel Time

Travel Time in Minutes

Travel Time for Work Trips: Automobile v. Public Transit

GroDistn

582

638

789

Distribution of Metropolitan Growth in North Carolina: 1980-2003

Metro

Metro AreaLand AreaPop 80Pop 1990Pop2000Pop2003Chg 80-03Pct ChgDensity80Density03Auto Travel TimeTransit Travel Time

Ashville2033282.8725.1369.138299.235.1%1391882127.932.9%

Charlotte3097855.51024.11330.61437581.568.0%27646425.144.175.7%

Durham1765291.9344.6426.2447155.153.1%16525323.93338.1%

Fayetteville1044267.6297.6336.534274.427.8%25632821.249.7134.4%

Goldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%17620421.125.621.3%

Greensboro2002491.9540.1643.4662170.134.6%24633121.736.869.6%

Greenville917106.2123.9152.815952.849.7%11617320.320.51.0%

Hickory-Lenoir1639270.4292.3341.835180.629.8%16521420.841.197.6%

Jacksonville767112.8149.8150.414835.231.2%14719320.626.126.7%

Raleigh-Cary2116402.1544797.1885482.9120.1%19041823.93338.1%

Rocky Mount1045123.2133.414314521.817.7%11813921.625.317.1%

Wilmington1925161.6200.2274.5294132.481.9%84153213566.7%

Winston-Salem1463329.8361.2421.9437107.232.5%225299

NC Total203663792.948415500.658022009.121.933.251.8%

U.S. Average20.835.972.6%

Major CitiesLand AreaPop 80Pop 1990Pop2000Pop2003Chg 80-03Pct ChgDensity00Density03Major CitiesLand AreaPop 80Pop 1990Pop2000Density00

Ashville40.95466.268.91,6850Raleigh114.6150.3220.4276.12,409

Cary42.121.745.594.52,2450Cary42.121.745.594.52,245

Charlotte242.3315.5427540.8585269.585.4%2,2322,414Charlotte242.3315.5427540.82,232

Durham94.6101.2148.518719896.895.7%1,9772,093Greensboro104.7155.6191.6223.92,138

Fayetteville58.859.5112.612112464.5108.4%2,0582,109Fayetteville58.859.5112.61212,058

Greensboro104.7155.6191.6223.922973.447.2%2,1382,187Durham94.6101.2148.51871,977

Raleigh114.6150.3220.4276.1317166.7110.9%2,4092,766Wilmington414456.175.81,849

Wilmington414456.175.81,8490Winston-Salem108.9131.9167.3185.81,706

Winston-Salem108.9131.9167.3185.819058.144.0%1,7061,745Ashville40.95466.268.91,685

Other Representative CitiesAuto Travel TimeTransit Travel Time

Columbus (OH)Charlotte2,414Ashville2127.9

Durham2,093Charlotte25.144.1

Greensboro2,187Raleigh-Durham23.933

Raleigh2,766Wilmington2135

Winston-Salem1,745

Distribution of Metropolitan Growth

Charlotte582

Raliegh-Durham638

Other Metro Areas789

Does Growth Threaten North Carolinas Future?Understand growth in North CarolinaExamine Sustainability and Smart Growth, and their implications for North CarolinaDiscuss the implications for growth management in North Carolina cities and metropolitan areas

North Carolinas Growth is Metropolitan Growth

NCPopChg

3792.92087.2

48411791.4

5500.62548.7

58022605

Metropolitan Areas

Rural Areas


PopGrowth

0.4297375895

0.5297002294

0.2480835569


PopShare

2009.1

517.8


Counties







AnsonCharlotte53225.623.525.325-0.6-2.3%4847




UnionCharlotte63770.484.2123.714675.6107.4%111229


ChathamDurham68333.438.949.35521.664.7%4981

DurhamDurham290152.2181.8223.323784.855.7%525817

OrangeDurham40077.193.711811840.953.0%193295

PersonDurham39229.230.235.6377.826.7%7494



WayneGoldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%176204





PittGreenville65290.1108.5133.813948.954.3%138213










NashRocky Mount54067.276.787.49022.833.9%124167








North Carolina

State48,7115,880.16,632.48,049.38,407.02,52743.0%121173

Metro Area20,3663,7934,8415,5015,8022,00953.0%186285

Rural28,3452,0871,7912,5492,60551824.8%7492

% Metro41.8%64.5%73.0%68.3%69.0%79.5%

citydensity

2414.3623607099

2093.023255814

2187.2015281757

2766.1431064572

1744.7199265381



travtime

2127.9

25.144.1

23.933

2135

Auto Travel Time

Transit Travel Time



GroDistn

582

638

170

619


Metro


Ashville2033282.8725.1369.138299.235.1%1391882127.932.9%

Charlotte3097855.51024.11330.61437581.568.0%27646425.144.175.7%

Durham1765291.9344.6426.2447155.153.1%16525323.93338.1%

Fayetteville1044267.6297.6336.534274.427.8%25632821.249.7134.4%

Goldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%17620421.125.621.3%

Greensboro2002491.9540.1643.4662170.134.6%24633121.736.869.6%

Greenville917106.2123.9152.815952.849.7%11617320.320.51.0%

Hickory-Lenoir1639270.4292.3341.835180.629.8%16521420.841.197.6%

Jacksonville767112.8149.8150.414835.231.2%14719320.626.126.7%

Raleigh-Cary2116402.1544797.1885482.9120.1%19041823.93338.1%

Rocky Mount1045123.2133.414314521.817.7%11813921.625.317.1%

Wilmington1925161.6200.2274.5294132.481.9%84153213566.7%

Winston-Salem1463329.8361.2421.9437107.232.5%225299

NC Total203663792.948415500.658022009.121.933.251.8%

U.S. Average20.835.972.6%



Cary42.121.745.594.52,2450Cary42.121.745.594.52,245













Winston-Salem1,745


Charlotte582

Raliegh-Durham638

Greensboro170


Growth is Concentrated in Two Metropolitan Areas

NCPopChg

3792.92087.2

48411791.4

5500.62548.7

58022605

Metropolitan Areas

Rural Areas


PopGrowth

0.4297375895

0.5297002294

0.2480835569


PopShare

2009.1

517.8


Counties







AnsonCharlotte53225.623.525.325-0.6-2.3%4847




UnionCharlotte63770.484.2123.714675.6107.4%111229


ChathamDurham68333.438.949.35521.664.7%4981

DurhamDurham290152.2181.8223.323784.855.7%525817

OrangeDurham40077.193.711811840.953.0%193295

PersonDurham39229.230.235.6377.826.7%7494



WayneGoldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%176204





PittGreenville65290.1108.5133.813948.954.3%138213










NashRocky Mount54067.276.787.49022.833.9%124167








North Carolina

State48,7115,880.16,632.48,049.38,407.02,52743.0%121173

Metro Area20,3663,7934,8415,5015,8022,00953.0%186285

Rural28,3452,0871,7912,5492,60551824.8%7492

% Metro41.8%64.5%73.0%68.3%69.0%79.5%

citydensity

2414.3623607099

2093.023255814

2187.2015281757

2766.1431064572

1744.7199265381



travtime

2127.9

25.144.1

23.933

2135

Auto Travel Time

Transit Travel Time



GroDistn

582

638

170

619


Metro


Ashville2033282.8725.1369.138299.235.1%1391882127.932.9%

Charlotte3097855.51024.11330.61437581.568.0%27646425.144.175.7%

Durham1765291.9344.6426.2447155.153.1%16525323.93338.1%

Fayetteville1044267.6297.6336.534274.427.8%25632821.249.7134.4%

Goldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%17620421.125.621.3%

Greensboro2002491.9540.1643.4662170.134.6%24633121.736.869.6%

Greenville917106.2123.9152.815952.849.7%11617320.320.51.0%

Hickory-Lenoir1639270.4292.3341.835180.629.8%16521420.841.197.6%

Jacksonville767112.8149.8150.414835.231.2%14719320.626.126.7%

Raleigh-Cary2116402.1544797.1885482.9120.1%19041823.93338.1%

Rocky Mount1045123.2133.414314521.817.7%11813921.625.317.1%

Wilmington1925161.6200.2274.5294132.481.9%84153213566.7%

Winston-Salem1463329.8361.2421.9437107.232.5%225299

NC Total203663792.948415500.658022009.121.933.251.8%

U.S. Average20.835.972.6%



Cary42.121.745.594.52,2450Cary42.121.745.594.52,245













Winston-Salem1,745


Charlotte582

Raliegh-Durham638

Greensboro170


North Carolina Citys Have Suburban Densities

NCPopChg

3792.92087.2

48411791.4

5500.62548.7

58022605

Metropolitan Areas

Rural Areas


PopGrowth

0.4297375895

0.5297002294

0.2480835569


PopShare

2009.1

517.8


Counties







AnsonCharlotte53225.623.525.325-0.6-2.3%4847




UnionCharlotte63770.484.2123.714675.6107.4%111229


ChathamDurham68333.438.949.35521.664.7%4981

DurhamDurham290152.2181.8223.323784.855.7%525817

OrangeDurham40077.193.711811840.953.0%193295

PersonDurham39229.230.235.6377.826.7%7494



WayneGoldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%176204





PittGreenville65290.1108.5133.813948.954.3%138213










NashRocky Mount54067.276.787.49022.833.9%124167








North Carolina

State48,7115,880.16,632.48,049.38,407.02,52743.0%121173

Metro Area20,3663,7934,8415,5015,8022,00953.0%186285

Rural28,3452,0871,7912,5492,60551824.8%7492

% Metro41.8%64.5%73.0%68.3%69.0%79.5%

citydensity

2414.3623607099

2093.023255814

2187.2015281757

2766.1431064572

1744.7199265381



travtime

2127.9

25.144.1

23.933

2135

Auto Travel Time

Transit Travel Time



GroDistn

582

638

170

619


Metro


Ashville2033282.8725.1369.138299.235.1%1391882127.932.9%

Charlotte3097855.51024.11330.61437581.568.0%27646425.144.175.7%

Durham1765291.9344.6426.2447155.153.1%16525323.93338.1%

Fayetteville1044267.6297.6336.534274.427.8%25632821.249.7134.4%

Goldsboro55397.1104.7113.311315.916.4%17620421.125.621.3%

Greensboro2002491.9540.1643.4662170.134.6%24633121.736.869.6%

Greenville917106.2123.9152.815952.849.7%11617320.320.51.0%

Hickory-Lenoir1639270.4292.3341.835180.629.8%16521420.841.197.6%

Jacksonville767112.8149.8150.414835.231.2%14719320.626.126.7%

Raleigh-Cary2116402.1544797.1885482.9120.1%19041823.93338.1%

Rocky Mount1045123.2133.414314521.817.7%11813921.625.317.1%

Wilmington1925161.6200.2274.5294132.481.9%84153213566.7%

Winston-Salem1463329.8361.2421.9437107.232.5%225299

NC Total203663792.948415500.658022009.121.933.251.8%

U.S. Average20.835.972.6%



Cary42.121.745.594.52,2450Cary42.121.745.594.52,245













Winston-Salem1,745


Charlotte582

Raliegh-Durham638

Greensboro170


Short term benefits of growth Maintains the current standard of living Accommodates the steadily growing population of the United States Provides additional choices of where to live and work Generates new jobs, new income, new tax revenue, and higher property values Stimulates greater opportunities for revitalization

Long term benefits of growth Lowers the costs of goods and services through greater economies of scale in production Allows businesses and people to shares resources more efficiently through greater economies of scale from geographic clustering Provides more consumer choices, employment options, and social diversity.

Realities of growthGrowth happens Fighting it doesnt workCreate the policy conditions for growth to work with, rather than against, the community.Watch for problems from sticky policyaffordable housing, jobs/housing balance, congestion, services.

Market-oriented Planning ElementsProperty development should be permitted as of right unless explicit action is taken by the planning board or local legislative body to evaluate the application. Local planning decisions should be protected from regional or state planning decisionmaking.

Market-oriented Planning ElementsDevelopers should be expected to modify projects to minimize the negative impacts of their proposed development, but these impacts should be tangible and measurable. Planning boards should minimize the likelihood that projects will be delayed through a legislative approval process by adopting broadly defined zoning districts that accommodate a large number of uses.

Market-oriented Planning ElementsOnce land is rezoned, site plans should be reviewed as quickly and efficiently as possible. Property owners and developers should bear the full costs of property development. Local communities should not be expected to subsidize property development by extending sewers, roads, and other infrastructure to the site.

Market-oriented Planning ElementsStanding in public hearings limited to parties clearly and directly impacted by proposed development.Land-use planning should embrace change and the evolutionary nature of urban development. Development approval should be based on a process--a set of clearly defined rules--rather than an end-state vision of what the community should look like 10 or 20 years down the road.

Contact InformationAdrian [email protected]

Is This Sustainable?Definitions:Sustainable development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development.Sustainable Development links the environment, economy, and social equity into policies and practices that benefit both present and future generations, consensus definition from Finding Common Ground: Toward a Sustainable North Carolina conference sponsored by the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Environmental Resource Program, 1995. Reality:Conservationconsuming lessPlanning v. prices

North Carolina Smart GrowthDefinitions:Smart Growth is an approach that seeks to direct development in ways to preserve an areas livability and natural resources, while providing for economic opportunity and making maximal use of existing infrastructure. North Carolina, Commission on Smart Growth: Growth Management and Development: Findings and Recommendations, Fall 2001, P. 16. Is is process?The Goal is not to limit growth, but to channel it to areas where infrastructure allows growth to be sustained over the long term. NC Commission on Smart Growth, p. 15.

North Carolina Smart Growth Alliance (+Sams short hand)Mix-use activity centers (avoid single family detached housing)Appropriate pattern of development (high density)Green space (greenbelts)Walkable communities (1/4 mile radius)Integrated transportation (transit)Enhanced civic realm (public parks)Affordable living (apartments)Shared benefits (???)Community collaboration (regional planning)Fairness in approving development (central land use planning

What is Sustaining North Carolinas Population GrowthSound Business ClimateHigh Quality of LifeHousing AffordabilityEfficient Transportation

Is North Carolina Smart Growth Sustainable?Transit CenteredRegional Land-Use PlanningIncrease densityReduce automobile useIncrease mixed-use, urban centersFatal FlawsWhy are people moving to North Carolina?Is Charlotte going to be more attractive in 2025?Where are the Consumers

Metro Work at Home

2279482618625369291617

52475648483580832121671

46504457654511675400

50568451193476763485

7530285265449616476

310563315544186102241451

39259631262730650836

Transit 1990

Transit 2000

Home 1990

Home 2000

Transit Use and Work at Home: Census 2000

NC work at home

11186104331139020982

800310433919521375

573553481033914894

Transit 1990

Transit 2000

Home 1990

Home 2000

Number Walking or Working at Home

Transit vs. Work at Home for North Carolina

transit

Transit 1990Transit 2000Home 1990Home 2000

Nation6,069,5896,067,7033,406,0254,184,223

Large Metros5,478,5955,550,9601,648,7472,377,296

Small Metros682,170516,7431,757,2781,806,927


Charlotte11,18610,43311,39020,982

Raleigh-Durham8,00310,4339,19521,375

Winston-Salem5,7355,34810,33914,894


Boston227,948261,86253,69291,617

Chicago524,756484,83580,832121,671

Dallas46,50445,76545,11675,400

Denver50,56845,11934,76763,485

Las Vegas7,53028,52654,49616,476

Los Angeles310,563315,544186,102241,451

Portland39,25963,12627,30650,836

Sheet2

Sheet3

Toward Real Sustainable DevelopmentA fundamental contradiction exists between sustainable development in an urban context v. sustainable development in an environmental contextUrban sustainability depends critically on People SafetyFinancial opportunityAffordability/increased standard of livingIntellectual advancement and achievement are rewarded

In short, it does not take great insight today to see that, however, inadequate the market may be, there is no reason to suppose that urban planners will necessarily do a better job, at least in the short run or intermediate term. This reality of the inadequacy of planners and their tools offsets the other reality of the inadequacies of the market and price mechanism.

--Lloyd Rodwin, Cities and City Planning (New York: Plenum Press, 1981), p. 230.

Are North Carolina Cities Sustainable?

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