Arctic Climate Change
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Arctic Climate Change John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
description
Arctic Climate Change. John C. Fyfe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. Questions. What is the scientific basis for Arctic amplification? Is there a human influence on Arctic climate change? How accurate are model projections of Arctic climate change?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Arctic Climate Change
Arctic Climate Change
John C. Fyfe
Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis
Questions
1. What is the scientific basis for Arctic amplification?
2. Is there a human influence on Arctic climate change?
3. How accurate are model projections of Arctic climate change?
Graversen et al. [2008]
Te
mp
era
ture
ano
mal
y (°
C)
Year
Arctic
Winter temperatures over land
NorthernHemisphere
Yang, Fyfe and Flato [2010]
°C p
er d
eca
de
(ver
tica
lly w
eig
hte
d)
Annual trends1991 to 2000
Linked to heat transport
Annual trends1991 to 2000
Linked to heat transport
°C p
er d
eca
de
(ver
tica
lly w
eig
hte
d)
Latitude
Lev
el (
hP
a)L
eve
l (h
Pa)
Yang, Fyfe and Flato [2010]
Screen and Simmonds [2010]
Lev
el (
hP
a)
Total trends Linked to sea ice
Winter temperature trends: 1989 to 2008
Summer moisture trends: 1989 to 2008
Total trends Linked to sea iceL
eve
l (h
Pa)
Screen and Simmonds [2010]
Sigmond and Fyfe [2010]
The Antarctic paradox: it’s sea ice is increasing
The ozone hole is linked to less, not more, sea ice!
Model sea ice change: 1979-2005
Gillett et al. [2008]
A human influence on Arctic warmingT
em
per
atu
re a
nom
aly
(°C
)
Year
OBS
ALL
NAT
A human influence on Arctic moistening
Min et al. [2008]
OBS ANT
ALL NAT
Arctic surface temperature projections
IPCC AR4 WG1 Report [2007]
Arctic sea ice extent projections
Boé and Hall [2009]
Bitz, Fyfe and Flato [2002]
April sea ice thickness (meters)
From observed winds From model winds
Contaminant pathways
Macdonald, Harner and Fyfe [2005]
A typical global climate model grid
IPCC AR4 WG1 Report [2007]
@Konrad Steffen
Jakobshavn Glacier
Holland et al. [2008]
Acceleration triggered by the arrival of warm ocean waters
Main messages
1. While our understanding of Arctic climate change is advancing some significant challenges remain
2. While climate models for the Arctic are continuing to improve some important shortcomings remain
Arctic Climate Change
John C. Fyfe
Canadian Centre for ClimateModelling and Analysis
