AR5 AFOLU mitigation challenges and prospects for Africa

IPCC Outreach EventRabat, Morocco4-5 May 2015

Dr Cheikh Mbow, Lead authors WG III, Chap 11World Agroforestry Centre-ICRAF, Nairbi, Kenya

[email protected]

AR5 AFOLU mitigation challenges and prospects for Africa

AFOLU (Facts)• Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is unique among the

sectors in WGIII: Removals of GHGs, Reduction of emissions through management of land and livestock. • Agriculture is central to the livelihoods of many social groups

• AFOLU sector is responsible for ~ < 25% (~10-12 Gt CO2eq/yr) of anthropogenic GHG emissions • Mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil,

biomass burning and nutrient management

• 2000-2010• GHG emissions/yr-1: agricultural @ 5.0-5.8 Gt CO2eq/yr • GHG flux/yr-1: land use change activities @ 4.3-5.5 Gt CO2eq/yr

Global Carbon Budget

Global Carbon Project 2013; Le Quéré et al. 2013, ESSD

1959-2013

44%

30%

26%

Energy/transp/build/indust=75%

AFOLU=25%

C-Pools (5)-Ocean: 77%-Fossil: 15%-Soil: 5%-Living: 1.5%-Atmos: 1.5%

A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's ForestsYude Pan, et al. Science 333, 988 (2011)

Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy.

Based on Figure 1.6

AFOLU emission-WGII/AR5/ Sector

Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment.

Barriers and challenges in AFOLU

• Financing, poverty, institutional, ecological, technological development,

• Feedbacks to adaptation and conservation

• Competition between different land uses‐

• Promoting synergies: integrated systems or multi-functionality, e.g. ecosystem services

DiagnosticsPatterns and Variability

Low CarbonCarbon Manag. & Policy

VulnerabilityProcesses & Feedbacks

● Carbon Budget● Methane Budget+NOx● Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment & Processes● Component Assessments: forests, grasslands

● Carbon pools size & vulnerability (Swamps, methane hydrates, non CO2)

● Socio-economic drivers of emissions

● Future carbon budgets (permissible emissions)

● Negative emissions● Urban development● Energy-carbon-water

Global Carbon Project framework

Land carbon cycle assessment

C-emission C-sequestration C-pools

Forest carbon stock inventory

Carbon accounting and surveys

Ecosystem models and mapping

Dynamic vegetation models

Trees Height, DBH, TCC

Forest/trees Biomass

Biomass change over time

Forest disturbance area

Field & RS

Field,Models&RS

Field & RS

Models & RS

Exploring the data requirements

Data gaps• Independent observed data

• Bottom-up ecosystem inventories of land fluxes, biomass, etc.;

• Satellite based approaches• NPP, GPP, NEP, Fire data and emission from

vegetation burning, Biomass maps; • Modeling

• Atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical models, dynamic vegetation modeling, phenology;

• Secondary data (including activity data) to derive emission databases on emission factors.

What are the challenges for Africa (LDC Box WG III-Chap 11)

• GHG will increase: food production leading to short term land conversion

• Technology will not be sufficient for the necessary transitions to low GHG

• Access to market and credits, capacities to implement mitigation options

• Non-permanence and leakage• Managing Risks, Co-benefits or trade-offs for mitigation (and

adaptation)

AFOLU and Low Emission Development Pathway

• AFOLU: a variety of mitigation options and a large, cost-competitive mitigation potential—flexibility—for mitigation technologies

• Projections: land related mitigation strategies (agriculture, ‐forestry, bioenergy) were projected to contribute 20 to 60% of total cumulative abatement to 2030, and 15 to 45% in 2100.

• RISKS: potential implications for biodiversity, food security and other services (ensuring co-benefits, avoiding land competition)

These Options make economic sense even without the benefit of carbon finance

Managing trade-offs

Adaptation

Mitigation Positive Negative

Positive

Soil carbon sequestration, improved water holding capacities, use of manure instead, mixed agroforestry for commercial products, income diversification with trees, reduced nitrogen fertilizer, fire management

Dependence on biomass energy, overuse of ecosystem services, Increased use of mineral fertilizers Poor management of nitrogen and manure, over extraction of non-timber products, timber extraction

Negative

Integral protection of forest reserves, limited rights to agroforestry trees, Forest Plantation excluding harvest

Use of forest fires for pastoral and land management, tree exclusion in farming lands,

Bundling mitigation and adaptation benefits

Mbow et al, 2014-COSUST

AR5 AFOLU mitigation challenges and prospects for Africa

Environment

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