Aquaculture Futures: Supply and demand trends
Transcript of Aquaculture Futures: Supply and demand trends
Aquaculture Futures:Supply and demand trends
Aquaculture Discovery Day, Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture (GFIA), Abu Dhabi, 9-11 March 2015
Michael Phillips
Fish is essential for food and nutrition security
Percentages of animal-based protein consumed in 2009
(100% = 31 g / capita / day)
Wild fish stocks have peakedMillion tons
Note: “Wild catch” includes finfish, mollusks, crustaceans, and other aquatic animals from marine and freshwater ecosystems. It excludes all aquaculture. Source: WRI/FAO (2014).
Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demandMillion tons
Sources: WRI (2014) FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO (2014).
Aquaculture production must more than double by 2050 to satisfy projected fish demandMillion tons
Sources: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO (2014b). Aquaculture production projections 2011–2050: Authors’ calculations assuming a linear growth rate of 2 Mt per year.
Aquaculture growth to 140 Mt by 2050 could contribute to economic development
Source: Authors’ calculations based on FAO (2014) and World Bank, FAO, and IFPRI (2013).
$308BFarm gate value / year
176MLivehoods
Aquaculture projections by 2030
• Middle East and Africa – 1.1 to 1.9 mt• Africa - 0.30 to 0.46 mt
Source: World Bank (2014)
Aquaculture converts feed to food efficientlyPercent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”
Sources: Terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. (2010), Wirsenius (2000). Finfish and shrimp: WRI (2014) analysis, based on USDA (2013), NRC (2011), Tacon and Metian (2008), Wirsenius (2000), and FAO (1989).
Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass.
“Blue Frontiers” interventions for sustainable growth of aquaculture
• Innovation• Regulations and policy• Technologies and management• Monitoring and compliance• Consumers, markets.
+ Investment
Innovations: sustainable intensification and growth of aquaculture
• Land, water and energy• GHG emissions • Seed quality and genetics• Feeds and feeding• Fish diseases• Environmental impacts
• Knowledge sharing and technology delivery
• SME investment models
Regulations and policy
• Regulatory and public policy for sustainable investment and growth
• Self regulation and private standards
Consumers: the potential of fish
Bangladesh
•20 million people, particularly women and children, suffer from deficiencies of vitamin A, iron, and zinc
•Small indigenous fish in household ponds provide a ready source
•Increasing the productivity of the 4 million ponds by 10 kg of small “Mola” fish provides the daily Vitamin A requirements for 7 million children
Investment: “Blue” investments
• US$50-70 billion in infrastructure needed by 2030
• Investment in SMEs
Outcomes
• Bring research to scale through commercial investment
• Nurture early-stage aquaculture SMEs and prepare them for commercial investment
Impacts
• Successful businesses producing affordable, nutritious food for the poor
• Better livelihoods for those who rely on fisheries & aquaculture
A WorldFish incubator
$20M 200,000
Investment by 2020
Women and men with improved livelihoods by
2020
100,000
Hectares under sustainable practices by
2020
The WorldFish Incubator: Goals
Summary
• Aquaculture needs to grow to meet future fish demand globally
• Investment into aquaculture growth in Africa is critically important
• Fish is a nutrient rich animal source food with low environmental impact
• Provides employment and income in rural and peri-urban communities
• Investment and business opportunities