Apsa Cdjune2012

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Comparat ive Democrat izat ionVolume 10, No. 2 June 201

The Ame r i c an Po l i t i c a l Sc i ence Assoc i a t i o n

ODolltCocptalArttMichael Coppedge

ArbttoGllrmoODollRobert Kauman

EdtoralLttrODolladAmrcaPoltcalSccLaurence Whitehead

AItllctalRblRobert M. Fishman

RctootCotrbtooGllrmoODollJames Mahoney

Strog-StatDmocratzatoAaDan Slater and Joseph Wong

CaPacBEgrd?Andres Wimmer

TUtltotVartoDmocarcyDatatKelly M.McMann

SctoNw

EdtoralCommtt

OD Onnellthe COnCeptual artist

r ar may way to cotrbt to t col lct v trpr w cal lcomparatv polt c. Som o drv t logcal mplcato o bacampto;omgtdtadotactortytdy;omrcotrctcaalproc;omgatrdata;omdvlopbttrrarcmtod;omttypot.Adom,lkGllrmoODoll,cagtwaywt

wor ld.

Gllrmo ODoll mad may kd o cotrbto to ocal cc, cldgmtorggratootdtadbldgCEDESadtKlloggIttt;btgrattcotrbtowrtcocptcratd.Itmaymaytocoawtrm,bt vtg a cocpt tat captr amportat pomo owll tat vryopcktpadtararacvmt.RobrtDal(adCarlLdblom)ddtwt pol yarcy, JaLz wt ator tar am,Ard Ljpart wt cooc at oaldmocracy,daSkocpolwtocalrvolto;adtrarawotr.Gllrmoaccompld t at rpatdly, wt bracratc-atortara rgm, mpoblgam, brow ara, dlgatv dmocracy, ad at lat om o t may vocatv

Michael Coppedge, University o Notre Dame

(continued on page 5)

a tributetO GuillermO O DOnnell

Robert Kauman, Rutgers University

IadtgratprvlgokowgGllrmooralmotortyyaradoworkgwtmatvaropo ta logtway.Hwabotatllctamodladapoltcalprato.Aaacadmc,ltamajormarkoalat trgratoo colarp oLatAmrca, bggwt

brllatworkobracratc-atortaramadxtdgtrogwrtgodmocratc trat o,dmocratc accotab lt y,adrlolaw.I tkgadwrtg,waotolyaadotcrv;apdt.ODollltalworkobracratcatortaramwaprrdbytmrgco rgt-wg mltary dctatorp t two mot dtralzd cotr o LatAmrcaBrazl1964adArgta1966.1Haalyotvtprovddagcatcallgtowdpradamptoabott potvcto dvlopmodmocracy.Itocdtadotcocratcrpototxatoomport-1.GllrmoODoll,Modernization and Bureaucratic Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics. Politics o

Modernization,o9.(Brkly:ItttoItratoalStd,1973).(continued on page 6)

RememberingGuillermo

ODonnell

In h i s I s s u e

CDAP ASS

1

1

12

2

3

3

4

4

29

42

T a or arwll.Or ympom aclbrato o t work adloGllrmoODoll,

atowrggrttdyo dmocratzato wopad away o Novmbr29,2011.Wakdvralo collag, collaborator,ad admrr to p ortrcollcto abot mad cotrbto. Tmblattttotrgardwc t dcpl ldm. W alo prt tr

FrO mthe eDitOrial

bOarD



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C om p a r a t i v e D em o c r a t i z a t i o nVol. 10, No. 2 June 20

A r t i c l es

GuillermO ODOnnellan D ameriCan pOlitiCal sCienCe

GllrmoODollddBoArNovmbr2011attago75.Aa por teotwawrblogdattdol,adMarc2012waaccorddacommmoratotr.Btwa alo a ctz o t wor ld, ad a mot lta l ad d tctv voc dmocratzato td adcomparatvpoltc, rt atYaladt WloCtr, adort latqartrctry atNotrDamwrwaodg drctoro t ovat v HlKl loggIttt.Hwaaloa powr lcotrbtortoaboyattradorarcoAmrcaPoltcalScc,botaadradaotdr.

Hrtwortpagoramomt,botovrtlablAmrcaadPoltcalScc.IbyAmrcawdrtadactzotAmrcawolvdadbratdtopadtragdopoltcallmaypartotwtr mprovrtpatalctry,tddwamoroaAmrcatamot.NotolytbttrtrmoloArgta,balotcomplxadmood-wtcgjei tinhooBrazlapoltc,adtmorordrly,btotcarlymoradmrabl

poltcotUSAaborbddalyrgadlpdtoprcomparatvadtortcalcratvty.Byoddrctgagmtaactzawllaacolartotrato,waclolyxpodtopoltcalraltotAmrcarpblcwrdaacqrdroacad/orwrcollagadtdtdrwm.Byodtwtrmpraloxrtdlc,orxamplSpaadawa,btabovallwagroddtAmrca.Atamtm,ad odobtaa coqcotcott-wdbackgrod, waalovry rm tctat t Amrca dgatoold ot b mproprlyappropratd by jt o o t cotr to wc trr

Laurence WhiteheadNu ield College, Oxord University

an intelleCtual rebel WhO ChanGeD the mai nstre am

GllrmoODollwaatllctalrbltrogadtrog,ytcagdmatramacadmcworkar mor ta maygtd colar woavcot tlyworkdwttparamtr tab ldbyxtgcovto.Hlavbdawaltoworktatwllamplyrwardtoworadadrradtdpt.Hcallgtotmatramwaatoctortcal,mtodologcal,btatvadtyltcytcottlyogttogagwttworktatcrtqdaogogdalog

trogwcdamtallytraormdvralltratr.

ODollworkxmpltvrtorgtocoobtwtllctalpoloroptotatmotcovtoalcolar td to aaltratvapproac toocal ctc work. Bot t xtraordary tmatc bradtotrdcplary radgad commtmt toormlatgtorzatorootd cotxtallyrcadotca-pcckowldg, ODoll wa a dtgd practtor o t o-Wbra cool, caractrzd by tmltaombracotarcortorcallymbdddcomplxtyadgralzgtory. 1Ytwaaadptaayoprat gaggtlattargmtcomparatvpoltcalcc,poltcaltory,poltcalocologyadpoltcalcoomy.

1.RobrtM.Fma,OBgaWbra(atrSpa1114Marc):NototCotgRlvacotMtodologcalPrpctvPropodbyWbr,LarcMcFall,d., Webers Objectivity Reconsidered(oroto:UvrtyoorotoPr,2007),261-289.

Robert M. FishmanUniversity o Notre Dame

(continued on page 8



3/423


reFleCtiOns On the COntributiOns OF GuillermO O DOnnell

ItmpobltomagwattldocomparatvpoltcwoldlooklkwtottcotrbtooGllrmoODoll.Hrpobloromayoorbtcocptbracratcatortaram,dlgatvdmocracy,orzotalaccotablty,browara,toamawadomayormotproodtortcalgttattxrcovogacomparatvpoltcwtotODollvolattmmalrwrtrlocotractalaaly.WGllrmoODolldd,poltcalcclotootgratttkradmotltalcolar.

Drgcarr,ODollrpatdlytttortcaladmprcalagdaorworkcomparatvpoltc.HalyottcocratcadarbradoatortaramxprcdSotAmrcat1960orvrcagdldocomparatvpoltc.otday, Modernization and Bureaucratic Authoritar ianismtadaatgxampltortcallgac,cocptalorgalty,adttltyopoltcalccortaalyomalymportat

to.1WIoctrdtoakowldgaccmlatococrgatortaram,IodtatODollworkadtrggrd calargad rt ltramo rarcatocotttadt ct vGllrmoODollRarcProgram.tramorarcrpobloragooddalowatwowkowabottotadworkgotortaram.

GllrmoA.ODoll,Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics(Brkly:ItttooItratoalStd,UvrtyCalora,Brkly,1973).

ames MahoneyNorthwestern University

(continued on page 10 )

COnCeDinGan D thrivinG: strO nG-state DemOCratizatiOnin asia

Dan S later,University o Chicagooseph Wong, University o oronto

Itwdlyargdtatrlgpartlptaatortarargm.Ootmotltalargmtorwyttcactropartycadrwlltopowr.prrcopartycadrarmcmplrtatoo[mltary]ocr,Gddpravly arg. Lk dmocratc poltca, ty mply wat to old oc.1

Byodavgtttoalcapablttatmltarlack,atortararlgparttypcallyavtrogrrtctvtatrmltarycotrparttoclgtopowr.

Yttr aaddtoaldamtal drcbtwr lgpartadml ta rtata otbadqat lyxplord,

dwcoldmportatmplcatoor tlkloodo dmocratzato party-ldrgm. For rlgmltar,mocratzatoadwtdrawalromocaroadtam.Ytlkrlgmltar,rlgpartcadmocratzwtot logpowr.Forator tar apart,dmocratzato ta ltbtat al coco ad r k to oldradarlcto,btotcarlytolotolctoadwtdrawromoc.WatPrzworkmmorablycalldttttoalzdcrtaty2odmocracymaymacwgcrtavctory,bttdootmaaccptgcrtadat.Rlgpartcamatapowradavmatadpowrwtotmatagatortararl.Dmocratzatomaytbmorctv-compatbloratortaraparttatcovtoalwdomggt.

BarbaraGdd,WatDoWKowAbotDmocratzatoAtrwtyYar? Annual Review o Political Science2(1999),p.129.

AdamPrzwork,Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reorms in Eastern Europe and Latin America(NwYork:CambrdgUvrtyPr,1991).(continued on page 12)

A r t i c l e


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Can peaCe be enGineereD? institutiOns , pOlitiCal inClusiOn, anD ethniCCOnFliCt

rarc ot addr t log-tadg dbat amog cotttoal gr ad comparatvpoltcalcttabotwctttorprttbttoolorprvtgcolcttcallydvddoct.mototdcdcaddatardmocracy,dralm,proportoalmormajortaram,adprdtalmorparlamtarm.Bycotrat,Iowotbaoytmatcqattatvvdctattttoarotctvprvtgarmdcolctorcvlwar.

Ratr,Iarg,tdrlygpowrcogratoacotrycrcaltodrtadtcodtoorpac.Irlyoaroprvodg,1wcrprttbackdroportollowgaaly.UgtEtcPowrRlato(EPR)datattatcodpoltcallyrlvattcgropadtracctogovrmtpowrallcotradyarc1945,tprvorarcaowtattwopowrcogratoarpartclarlywar-pro:Wlarg,tcallyddgmtotpoplatoarotrprtdattgtlvlogovrmt,armdrbllotamo

xclddpoplatomaymrg.Scod,agmbropowrargpartrcracrtyabottrallacadtcommtmtproblmtprt,makgtmorlklytatcompttobtwtcltargpowrcalattoarmdcolct.Scgtgbtwpowrargpartr,owvr,mclrqttarbllobyxclddgrop(20v.90armdtccolctogttworldc1945).powrcograto

1.AdraWmmr,Lar-ErkCdrma,adBraM,EtcPoltcadArmdCoct.ACogratoalAalyoaNwGlobalDatat,AmericanSociological Review74(Aprl2009):316337.

Andre as WimmerPrinceton University


growtobatoaldmocratzatotddrgtlattwodcadalpllycomplcator drtadg o dmocracy ad, mor broadly, rgm ad rgm cotty ad cag. Wowavvdctatdmocratcclavxt mrocotr,wcwadcomortabllabldadmocratcordmocratzg.Ad,wavdtdcatoaccotortclavpcccotr.xttptoxpadtcopaddptoorkowldgotatwcarrgmtypologadtororgmcottyadcag.artclxamowbatoa

datagratdbytVartoDmocracy(V-Dm)projctcalpacvt.Idogo,tollowromtprvowlttr,wccalldorw approacaddata tdygbatoaldmocratzatoHr,Ixamcallgbatoaldmocratzatotdavpodtotcovtoalwdom.,Icodrqtotatdtobawrdordrtomprovxtgtypologadtor,ad,ally,atactattV-Dmbatoaldatacaprovd.2

1.S,partclar,omlaLaka,SypaEdavororWortwlUdrtakg? Te American Political Science Association Comparative Democratization Newslette10( Jaary2012)adAgtaGrady,SbatoalDmocracy:LoromLatAmrca,Te American Political Science Association Comparative Democratizatio

Newsletter10(Jaary2012).

2.TartclbtdromggtoromAgtaGrady,partcpattMargDmocracyWorkgGropatUvrtyoNotrDamKlloggItttorItratoalStd,adotrmmbrotV-Dmtam.Allrroradomoarmyow.

imprOvinG theOriesOF reGimes, reGime COntinuity, anD reGime ChanGethrO uGh subnatiOnal researCh: the util it yOFthe var iet ies OF DemOCraCy Datas et

Kelly M. McMannCase Western Reserve University


A r t i c l es


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FrOm th e eDitOrial bOarD, COntinueD

otrpct.DaSlatradJo Wog rct o o-party tat Aa ad wat tr partclar lgactal or proc o dmocratzato.Adra Wmmr prt om arlyad provocatv dg rom a l orarc o dmocratc ttto adtccoct.Adally,KllyMcMa,ollowgpoorlatobatoaldmocratzato, dc r ort tocompl a global datat to xplor cqto.

Tcodarwllmyow.Twllb

tlatotwlttrtatIwllrv a t xctv dtor. wo yarwt by qckly. Wl I wll cotto rv o t dtoral commtt, mytmdcollagBSmtadStaaI. Ldbrgwll ccd m a codtor.Itmyoptataydrcyomayotcttrwllbmprovmt.

It a b a datg tak to xpadtwlttrtoaroormortdcooorwork.Iowadbtograttdtomaypopl.Mycollagat t Uvrty o Florda wo rvdo t dtoral commtt av b aprato.Mayotmcampwtt tmatc oc or ad rcrtdrtratcotrbtor(adtBSmtwamypartrcrm).Otrlpd wt t dtg ad provdgcrtcal dback to ator. rtaVllga, wo rvd a my dtoralatat or two yar wa dpabl.

rta rad vrytg prodcd at lattwc,adworkdadolytomakrvrytg appard t bt pobllgt. wo car o t Dpartmt oPoltcalScc,StvCragadMcalMartz,adDaPalDArotCollgoLbralArtadSccattUvrty o Florda coragd ad

provddmatralpporttomaktpobl.FortIamgratl.Iamalodbtdtoalltatorwo workd wt ot.Tqaltyot wlttr rct tr pao adgty.Fally,wowagdbttoorcollagattNatoalEdowmtor Dmocracy wo compod, lpdto dt, ad dtrbtd t wlttr. Icaot mag ow w coldav dotwtottmaaggdtor,MlAt-Bcl. Mla o mor

patc,datgablty,adcommtmto t btac o dmocratzato wataltotwoltrpr.

[email protected]

Coppedge,COntinueD

cocpt rom collaborato wtPllpp Scmttr. oly ocalcttIcatkowotrodcdamaywcocptwaMaxWbr,wo ad t advatag o lpg toodtdcpl.

val o t cocptalcotrbtotracdayodatat,

rgro,modl,artcl,orbook.yappal drctly to or tto. Wdotltdtotttmbcaw tat ty ar tr. It toplayamormportatrolccta om ralz. Or ow ormaldrtadgoowtworldworkmayblrlabltamatmatcalor log cal tool , bt coc o ly orot,wrlyotmallttm.Or

ttoartalbrdggtcam btw t ymbolc lagago tory ad tg w ca actallyobrv. Or tto a lo lp jdg mmdat ly wtr a propodcaalcoctodrvtobtakroly. y dtrm wtr tracto to a w da appla orlagtr.Fwypotcomparatv

poltcavbdrvdprlyromt ormal ampto o a tory.I almot a ll ca , at om pot ,rarcr draw o tr commo-kowldgotpoltcalworldto tralat t logical mplcato oa tory to obrvabl mplcato.Wtot c tra lato, o torywoldbt tabl.

Namgpomamaktmmorral to . Gllrmo ad a talt orbtowg catcy am, lk browara ad mpobl gam. adagrotalttoavbcawma too aly co clvr(c a al l tra to, rymg, adparadox) wt gt . Bt I cattkoatacwcGllrmo

abd t talt. H cocptappropratly calld attto topoma tat wr trly mportata c ll g w typ o ator tarargm, t dmazg mpact oatortaram, t dappotmtowdmocrac,adtalgottat.

(continued rom page 1)

(continued rom page 1)

Ed i t o r s / Cop ped


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cocptcodardcptvlympl: codato o wol,complxtor(Iwoldaytor,btGllrmodmrrdromclamgttrm)wtactor,ttg,motv,

adto.llgaatygtory rall y wat t ma to xplaomtg. Gllrmo cocpt wrttlordrama.mpoblgamwa a tragdy, brow ara a lamt,dlgatv dmocracy a warg, adbracratc-atortara rgm aorrorow.

W w Gllrmo ODollcocpt,wpaklagag,twor ld trog y, ad ar cocr.Wwadoptcocpt,

w alo bcom a commty : a gropopoplargacommolagag,ararcagda,vapoltcalagdaadadtty.

IwaGllrmocollagortya r at t Kl logg It tt, wr Iadtopporttytomatworkoarglarba,btowarrvdattgttllamytrytom.I kow t rqrd pao, brllac,dp co larp, ad gagmtwt oldg vt, bt I am rtrorcporcombgtgrdt.Itaart,adGllrmowa a art t.Wo kowwat trpolt cal or ocal pomo wllpa ot cd bca G ll rmo

ODollotrtopottotto?

Michael Coppedge is proess or o

pol it ical science at the Universi ty

o Notre Dame. He is the author o

Dmocratzato ad RarcMtod (Cambridge University Press

orthcoming 2012) and (with John

Gerring et al.), Conceptualizing and

Measur ing Democracy: A New Approach,

Prpctv o Poltc (June 2011)247-267. He received his Ph.D. in 1988

rom Yale University and now chairs th

American Pol itical Scien ce Assoc iation

ask Force on Indicators o Democracy

and Governance.

KauF man, COntinueD(continued rom page 1)

bttto dtralzato ad ttrctralcotrattattmpld.Notrprgly,tworkwacotrovral,ad t rvd, amog otr tg,

to provok al tratv approacwc dowplayd oc ocoomcxplaato ad mpazd prvrtttoal ctv ad tratgcmca lclat o o pol t cal actor.2Bt ODoll aaly wa malprclybcatgagdoawdvar tyo tllctal tradto romdpdcyapproactomatramocology ad poltcal cc. Ada ltog Gllrmo ml trd

mor drctly to actor-ctrd approac t xt pa o carr,mayottrctralttmlaboratd ad ytmatzd work o brac rat c-atortar amrmadrlvattodrtadgtcotratoglobalzatoadcaptalmobl ty acd by w dmocracaraodbtcradtrctral

2.JaLzadAlrdStpa,d.Te Breakdowno Democratic Regimes.(Baltmor:JoHopk

UvrtyPr,1978).

adjtmt.

ODoll cotrbto to tltratr o dmocratzato,

ad partcla rly pat brak gcollaborato wt Plpp Scmttrad Larc Wtad,3 ad av mor prood ad drg lc. Ld by ODo ll adScmttr, 4 t cotrbtor to tprojct brogt poltcal actor back. I omwat roc cotrat tocrtcmotworkobracratcatortaram, t l o rarcca b crtczd or ovrmpazg

voltar madorta, or ocgtoo arrowly o gotato amoglt actor, ad attacg too mc

3.GllrmoODoll,PlppScmttr,adLarcWtad,d.ransitions rom

Authoritarian Rule.(Baltmor:JoHopkUvrtyPr,1986).

4.GllrmoODolladPlppC.Scmttr,ratoromAtortaraRl:tatvCocloabotUcrtaDmocrac,GllrmoODoll,PlppScmttr,adLarcWtad,d.ransitions rom

Authoritarian Rule.(Baltmor:JoHopk

UvrtyPr,1986).

mpor tac to pact makg aodato or ccl dmocrattrato.Btwrtgarawrmltary dctator tll domatd

largmbrocotr,ODollmpaotratgcopporttopoltcalactorttoallyaddrddmocratcactvtawllacolar.

Mor mportat, ODoll ta tto tat tr wa o tgrlatop btw trato aococoomcorcltralprrqta rcvd codrabl pport coomtrcrarc. 5Altogt

dgavotgocallgdxprc o t grod albar ot t loo o t ococoomc cotra t o t tatablmt o dmocratc rgmMovmt toward dmocracy dr

5.AdamPrzworkadFradoLmog.Modrzato:ToryadFact World Politics49Jaary1997):176.

6.SCarlBoxadSaStok,EdogoDmocratzato,World Politics55(Jly2003):

517-549.

Cop p edg e/ Ka u f m a n


7/427


t trd wav, a ODoll adScmttrargd,aactoccrrd a btatal ly wdr va rty o oco-coomc crcmtac tadvlopmtalt xplaato mgt

avldtoxpct.Fally, a dmocratc rgmtrggld to cooldat t 1990ad 2000, ODoll aga ld tway to dco o major qto.H cocptalzato o dlgatvdmocracy lctd govrmttat ar rlatvly cotrad byorzotal accotablty provdda vry arly rcogto o a pattr

tat a bcom wdprad LatAmrca, v amog cotrwc av ot lk Vzla movd dcvly toward compttvatortaram.7 Smlarly, dcoo brow ara wr t ta t ad l mtd rac provdd avv d mtapor tat glgtd tdtctobtwdmocratcrgmad t bracratc ratrctr o

7.GllrmoODoll,HorzotalAccotabltyNwDmocrac,Journal o Democracy9(Jly1998)112-126.

ttattl. 8Iartcladpapr,ally, ODoll alo provdd amportat rlcto o t rlatobtw c t zp, c v l l aw adpoltcalrgt,adoowttorcal

qcg o t tablmt ot rgt dtgd xprcWtrEropadLatAmrca.9Hr,ODollbrllacaaocalct t combd wt dptrtolawadjtc.

Icold,ocor,laboratmcmorxtvlyotcotrbto,admay otr tat Gllrmo mad logacadmccarr.BtwatI

wat to mpazr ot olytcolarlywrtgpramportatad gtl a tat wa bt txtt to wc all o work wad by a dp pao abot rlo law, dmocracy, ad ma lbrty.Gllrmo wa a poltcal ploopr8.GllrmoODoll,OtStat,DmocratzatoadSomCocptalProblm(ALatAmrcaVwwtGlacatSomPot-CommtCotr,WorkgPapr#192,TKlloggItttForItratoalStd,Aprl

1993.9.ODoll,WytRloLawMattr,

Journal o Democracy15(Octobr2004),p.40.

a wll a a polt cal ctt adabovall,acommttddmocrat.Ocommty ad I proally wlproodly m wdom ad commtmt.

Robert Kauman is a proessor o politica

science at Rutgers University. He ha

written widely on authoritarianism

and democratic transitions in Latin

America and the pol itical economy o

economic reorm. His current research

is on democratization and social policy

reorm in Latin America, Eastern Europe

and East Asia. His most recent book i

Dvlopmt,Dmocracy,adWlarStat:LatAmrca,EatAa,adEatrErop (2008), coauthored withStephan Haggard. heir previous book

Pol tcal Ecoomy oDmocratcra to, won the Luebber t Pr ize obest book rom the Comparative Politics

Section o the American Political Science

Assoc iat ion in 1995.

K a u f m


8/428


WhiteheaD, COntinueD(continued rom page 2)

Itwatrordrprotttatallowdlataytobpbld

Democratization in America,avolmdtd by Dmod Kg, Robr tC. Lbrma, Grtc Rttr, admyl,dpttxclvocotUSA.1GllrmokwogtowrtabottUtdStat,ocor,btdrwatovwtcomparatvlyadromwtot.Itwaolybcat Jo Hopk Pr avord ampldrrctoocqvlltatallowdtrtrctddoAmrca

topa.

Iamlarv,wabotadradakptcalcrtcotprooopoltcalcc.Hwaadra o o t brgtt ta r o gratooUS-tradcolar,woowd mc o Egl lagagormatotocatortaAptr,Dal, ad Hrcma. H wa a loa dr trog t prooal

ladrprolamdatKllogg,ad a Prdt o t ItratoalPol t cal Scc Aoca to, otto mto may otr rlatddtcto.ortvolmotransitions rom Authoritarian Rule

projct,wcatordjotlywtP lpp Scmttr, wa o o tmotltaladwdlyctdtxt

1.GllrmoODolladLarcWtad,woComparatvDmocratzatoPrpctv:

BrowAraadImmac, Democratization inAmerica: A Comparative-Historical Analysis,DmodKg,RobrtC.Lbrma,GrtcRttr,adLarcWtad,d.(Baltmor:JoHopkUvrtyPr,2009),pp.28-56.

Amrcapoltcalccovrtpat two grato, ad rma a

kyradgtotday.2Latrwork,orxamploorzotalaccotabltyad dlgatv dmocracy, tllcot to ap t ld. At tamtm,rdtocomltottmplatoprooalpoltcalcc. H d data t pargly,adtorzdotbaotgradwpowtrocaltory,ratrtaromtmtodologcaltoolboxadjoralctatocrrtlyvog

may dpartmt. H oakd pt tty ad complxty o ralpoltcal practc a xprcd byctz,ocalmovmtadue rz asvivas, a wll a by Pr dt adlctd rprtatv. H rpoddto t val clavag ad lctvtrtocotmporarypoltcaldbatbytakgapblctadwrltt cary, wl at t am tmattmptg to d a gr lvl o

tortcal aaly o wc to bajdgmt.Iprtotgoalrortdxtvlytotcomparatvmtod, comparo bad o takgrolytmltplprpctvaddvr agl o vo avalabl tomromacrotwolmpr,wc provdd m wt d tacad prpctv w gmoccrtatwrmorlklytomlad.2.GllrmoODolladPlppC.Scmttr,

ratoromAtortaraRl:tatvCocloabotUcrtaDmocrac,GllrmoODoll,PlppScmttr,adLarcWtad,d.ransitions rom

Authoritarian Rule(Baltmor:JoHopkUvrtyPr,1986).

Ad dd ot tat to drawo aoabl, or at lat xtra

prooal,orcogdacwrtymdrlvatatropologcalocologcal, jrprdtal, torcaladtrctralawllatcalgtormdworldvw.

So, y , w av lot a mAmrcaPoltcalSctt,btmortatatwavlotaboldtkradarprtwocotrbtdamcromotdttadardcoo

cotmporaryacadmaaromwt

Laurence Whitehead is an Oicia

Fellow in Politics at Nuield College

Oxord University, and Senior Fellow o

the College. In March 2011 he takes up

a one-year post as Senior Proctor o th

University. His most recent books ar

LatAmrca:ANwItrprtato,(Palgrave, 2006), second revised updated

edition 2010 and Dmocratzato

ory ad Exprc (OUP, 2002)Whitehead has published numerou

articles in academic journals, including

most recently,Dmocratzato,awaJoraloDmocracy,andPrpctvoPoltc.He is the editor o an OxordUniversity Press series, Studies in

Democratization and President o th

Conseil Scientiique o the Institut de

Ameriques in Paris. He is als o a membe

o the steering committee o the Red

Eur ola tinoamericano de Gober nabilidad

para e l Desarrollo .

Wh i t eh ea d


9/429


Fi sh m

Fishman, COntinueD(continued rom page 2)

ODoll ard t o-Wbraapproac2 ad t t practc o

torzg broadly o t odatoo ca- tv ad tor callymbdddaalywtvralotrgratporttdyodmocracy,atortaram ad poltcal rgmcag, bt ODoll work wadtctv v wt tat grop.Amog to g t approacto t tdy o dmocracy adatortaram,GllrmoODolltad ot clarlya t colarmot

cottlydvotdtotaalyopobl to btw ppodly lcto coomc dyamc adt at o dmocracya ara o qry tatcottoattractbroadtrt. I o tr way a wll arcd or magl ortall cotmporary dmocratc otcom; work blt ovatv way obradtoradgpoltcaladlgal tory, pol t cal coomy ad

ocology, atropology ad tory.Bt ODol l alo corporatdtoworkawdragogtclld rom drct obrvato ot world rrodg m bot atv Argta ad lwr.H mtodology wa pragmatcallyclctc.

O Dol l bt kow or trdamtal cotrbt oo t

paradoxcal mrgc o bracratcatortar am t r latv lydvlopd otr co o SotAmrca,3 o t dyamc otratoromatortararl(collaborato wt Plpp Scmttr2.IrmadbtdtoODollordcowtmotpot.

3.GllrmoODoll,Modernization andBureaucratic Authoritarianism: Studies in South

American Politics(Brkly,CA:ItttoItratoalStd,1973).

ad Larc Wtad)4 ad morrctly o crcal drpg o

dmocracyttatadcodtopromotg wdprad agency ot par t o c t z5bt may o t gt od work tadotdtotrtmatcara.Hxploratooatortaralgacmcro-cotxtlocatdarotdtpoltcal ara t arrowt ,tograpccomparooocalrarc ad drvg pract c BrazladArgtaadporg

work o accotabl ty drcort grat tmatc b radt o wrtg ad tllctal cratvt y. Htrdtotayatwrtgormmot td to may o gt;6ODollcratvtyaddptwrot cotrad by t covtoalcarr calclato tat ap omay colarly pblcato tratg.rogot t all ,ODollwrot otmtatmattrdtom,owc

adomtgdamtallywtoayadtrogwccoldgagogogdbatwtotrcolar.

work tat rltd rom tapproacbarcarlrradgortcotrctdwtaltllctalcar ad ty l tat provd t wtdrg trt ad rlvac. otakpbtoxampl,ODolldco o tcocratc rol ad

tadard clac work obracratc ator taram o

4.GllrmoODoll,PlppScmttradLarcWtad,ransitions rom AuthoritarianRule: Prospects or Democracy(Baltmor,MD:JoHopkUvrtyPr,1986).

5.GllrmoODoll, Democracy, Agency andthe State: Teory with Comparative Intent(Oxord:OxordUvrtyPr,2010).

6.GllrmoODoll, Counterpoints: Selected Essayson Authoritarianism and Democratization(NotrDam,IN:NotrDamUvrtyPr,1999).

ogog rlvac cotxt armovd rom t otr co

cotr o wc aaly wabad. I tat tac ad otr davord to torz way tacold travl byod t t tg wcgt wr tallyrootdMcowatwrototdagroaxcvrlacotcocratmtaltSotAmrcargatr todayo otr cottat dd at t tm t oct owcwawrtg.Idd,tdt

o t cotmporary Ero cr avamctolartodayromtatworkadoLatAmrcat.ODollwrtg wl l cot to or radra vvd rmdr tat colarp cab mltaoly artclatd arodt pcc torcal trajctor opartclarcaadtdrvtodtybroad tortcal mplcato o caalyormrootrcotxt.

ODoll work alo markd bt combato o cv crt qwt opad a commtmt to tda o progr. Yt colarp ot ay topa. I t torogly mbddd a arpcr tq o cotmporary or rcpractc alogd t dtcatoo ba or ovrcomg, or trvgto ovrcom, atyg otcomODoll mad a ormo mpac

otolytrogwrtgbtaldrctcolarlytractoromtmaagradattdtatYaloward.AtYal,wrtdtctobtwprooradtdtbcamamrormaltytca,dadvlopd a logd to o otgat t tdy o dmocracy addvlopmtcldg Ja LzAlrdStpa,DavdAptr,adRobrDal.colaratYalwtwom


10/4210


Fi sh m a n / M ah on ey

ODol l ad prap c lotacadmc cocto at t tm, tlat Davd Aptr, ot admodgradattdttoavodbcomga pt t rarc atat ortdomatparadgm.FwcolaravollowdtatadvcollyadcottlyaODollwoworkrcogrdxtgparadgm.Icolarp tr mc tat ocalcttwllrtrtoorgtadrtl ypot bt tr ar alolobotortogagdtpolt cal ara ad or colarly ltl.Idd,ODollcocror

codto promotg agcy old amaymplcatoorcolarlylaorpoltc.wd-raggtllctalcratvty ad trl mtodologcalc lctcm o ODo ll rv armdr o ow proodly tovrt ca rcogr matramcolarlydbat.

Robert M. Fishman is a Kellogg Institute

ello w and proess or o soc iology at the

University o Notre Dame and at present

also a visiting proessor o political and

social science at the Universitat Pompeu

Fabra, Barcelona. Fishman is currently

writing a book that theorizes enduring

consequences o pathways to democracy

on the basis o a comparison o democrati

practice and soc ietal outcomes in Spain

and Portugal. His most recent books ar

Dmocracy Voc (2004) and (withAnthony Messina) Yar o tEro (2006). His articles have appearedin World Poltc, Poltc & SoctyStd Comparatv ItratoaDvlopmt, Comparatv PoltcCotrbto to Poltcal Ecoomyand other journals.

mahOn ey, COntinueD(continued rom page 3)

ransitions rom Authoritarian Rule:

entative Conclusions about Uncertain

Democracies, wc ODoll co-atord wt Plpp Scmttr, rly t mot ltal book vrwrtt abot t wav o dmocratc

trato tat wpt t globbgg t 1970.2 bookoc o t tral cotradctowt ator tar a rgm (.g. ,btw ard lr ad o tlr)bcam t pot o dpartr or awolgratooworkodmocracycomparatvpoltc. Somcolaradaptdttortcalda,xtdgt argmt to w rgo adca. Otr took crtcal wt

t clam, g t book a a bato dvlop w l o argmt .Etr way, ODoll da abotdmocratzatowrttartgpotad odato or mot bqtaalyodmocratzatoarodtwor ld.

2.GllrmoODolladPlppC.Scmttr,ransitions rom Authoritarian Rule: entativeConclusions about Uncertain Democracies(Baltmor:JoHopkUvrtyPr,1986).

latr tag o ODol l car rwrardlyaprod owdgdow.Ratr, ODoll lat carr awt pblcato o a r o malw work o t qalty o w

dmocrac.workwatmlatdbyamtot dappotgctog o dmocracy LatAmrca, pcally atvArgta. ovrrdg cocrwa to mak t dmocrac workbttr or tr ct z. ODollmad bac cotrbto cocrgoaccotablty,trl olaw,adtrolottatdmocracy.Hwadamtaltotmovmt

awayromaxclvocorgmt tto toward a mor robtdrtadg o dmocracy, o tatcld t capacty o t tat toprovdpoltcalacc,rorc,adjt cor t ct z.

*****Gllrmo ODoll wa armarkablmawodcolarpto cotrbt to t dvlopmt o

a bttr world. H wa rmarkabl or t dpt o togt ad arcodratooaltratvvwtatwr bd pol t cal covcto .H wa rmarkabl or paoabot gly mportat polt cal

qto cocrg t lvadwllbgorglarctzvwll atr ad acvd grat amaacolar.Adwarmarkablorcapactytodlvrawrtotqtowttgcratvty,dpmprcal grodg, ad pract calloadtltyorgogorward.

Wra ODoll wa a motlyol ta ry wr tr, a a col lag ad

tllctal wa gly coctdtodvdaladmovmt.Hwadply gagd poltcally trogotcarr,adtatgagmtapdtcottoallorarc.Hwork o bracrat c ator tar amwa mot va td byt or ttodrtadtrgmordrtormovtm.Ulk om otr actvt LatAmrca, owvr, ODoll ogt


11/4211


M a h on

todlodgtB-Argmtrogo-rvoltoarymaadwttgoalotablgpoltcaldmocracy,ot ocalm. W ODoll td to t tdy o dmocrat ctratobggtlat1970, dd o to corag ad promotpoltcaldmocracy.Ayoworadransitions rom Authoritarian Rule

caot lp bt ot c t magooptattcovy.atmagwa pckd p by joral t adpoltca, ad t rly playd omrol tmlatg t optmm tatmd tal to ta g tor ga l t ra to to dmocracy.Lkw,cocrwtdmocratcaccotablty,trlolaw,adtortcomgoprocdraldmocracyav od voc amog mportatcotmporarypoltcalmovmtadladrLatAmrca.

At a tttoal lvl, ODollwa a klld ad ovatv bldr.HwaootodroCEDES Bo Ar; alo playd aodgrolttablmtaddrcto o t Kllogg Ittt orItratoal Std at Notr Dam;adwaaovatvladrattWoodrowWloCtr ProgramorLatAmrca.ODollrtrwaprdtotItratoalPoltcalSccAocato,advc-prdto t Amrca Pol tcal SccAocato.

*****

ODoll lc o gratoo colar rom Lat Amrca aapd t aclty rotr o poltcalccdpartmtarodtcoty.May o t bt Lat Amrcatworkgtoday ar romtrgo,adtywrotprdbyODoll prood ly proal way. BtODollaloadamajorlcogratoocolarbortUtdStatwoowworkoLatAmrca poltc. I my ca, I rtlardabotworkoB-Argmw l takg a drgradat cortagt by Katry S kkk at tUvrtyoMota.Radgtwork wa a l cagg xprcorm.IdootkowIwoldavbcomapoltcalcttwtott.Wl atBrklyor gradat td,myadvrwaDavdCollr,adkptalttlpotograpoODolloocwall.OcIakdDavdabotwomIoldavmdaaadcwwrtgabotLatAmrca poltc, ad potd totpoto,adad,Hm.Evrc,ODoll a b my magaryadc. W I mt Gllrmo gradat cool , I wa ab l to t l lm abot t lc o worko m, ad my dram to bcom acomparatv-torcal aalyt o trgo. Ad I wll alway trar apcalottatGllrmottomtmmro2010atrradgmybookocoloalm,tdaorwc

kwowworkadlpdto

prmortatwodcadarlr.

Lk may otr, I av omtmtr d to p dow t xcptoalqaltoODollwork,partotatImgtmlattm.Oapct rly ODoll ab l ty to cocpttatcaptrtcorcoglymportatpoltcalpomatatavotbprvolydtdbttatartatlyrcogzdwdtd by a vvd am. Aotrapct lgat jxtapo t oo dta ld ormato cocrgpcc ca, o t o ad, wtgraltortcalototr.Yt aotr xtraordary ab ltytoaddromotmotmportatmoral qto acg cotmporarymaty a objctv, val-rmar.

GllrmoODollwaapaoat,mpatc, ad brll at colar wtaxcptoalcapactyortortcalorgalty. H wa a xtraordaryma bg. H cotrbto wllotl v m, ad prc w llrmawt:colarlywork,maytdtadprotg,ttttotatlpdtobld,orqtordmocratcjtc,ad,otlat,orodmmor.

James Mahon ey is the Fitzgerald Proess or

o Economic History in the Departments

o Political Science and Sociology at

Nor thwestern University.

mahOney, COntinueD(continued rom page 3)


12/4212


ay bld po t tortcalcorrctvwtaprlmaryxploratoo t ollowg mprcal paradox:om o t trogt atortaraparttworldavotrtd

dmocratzato,btavmbracdt.Evmortrkgly,ccocoodmocracyavoccrrdrgmtat commadd xcptoally trogtatapparattatwrtgtlydwt powrl r lg par t,provd gt rgm wt ampl cmbtcapacty3 to rt dmocratzato ty ad o co. Yt ty dd otocoo,adtoryaowtatty co wly. I awa, Sot

Kora(ratrKora),adIdoa,or xampl, domat rlg partcocdddmocracywtotcocdgpowr, ad dd wt t codtxpctato tat ty wold ot lopowr. Ratr ta cocdg adwtdrawg, r lg par t tAa dvlopmtal tat cocddadtrvd.

Bt wy, w, ad ow do c a

cocdg-to-trv caro comto pa? W cotd tat domatpartcabctvzdtococddmocratzato rom a pot o oxcptoaltrgtadotolyroma pot o o xcptoal wak.Paradoxcally, t vr y trgttat lp domat part taatortaramcaalolpmotvattmtodt.Utaglgtparadoxo trog-tat dmocrat zat o4

rqr tat attto b pad, rtadormot, tot torcalorco trgt tat mak t tratgyvabl or om party ladr ad otor otr. It alodmad tvtytotproxmatcodtotatmak3.StvLvtkyadLcaA.Way,Competitive

Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes ater the Cold War(NwYork:CambrdgUvrtyPr,2010).

4.DaSlatr,Strog-StatDmocratzatoMalayaadSgapor, Journal o Democracy23:2(Aprl2012),pp.19-33.

acocdg-to-trvlogcmorlklyomttgtaotr.

Or workg caal argmt cojctraladtorcal,adold

trtp.Frt,rlgpartarolylklytombarkocarkydmocratzatopatwtypobtatal atcdt rorc admarkd rlatv trgt v--v toppoto,ctattycodtlyxpcttowllydmocratclcto.Scod,adomtototrtpot, rlg part mt otlrcv a trog ad clar gal tatty ar pag tr apx o powr

ad lgtmacy. gal ca takt orm o a coomc, lctoral ,cott o, or gopol tca l ock,or om combato tro. rd,rlgpartmtbcommaddbyladrwotratgcallycalclattatprg dmocratc rorm promtogvtmlvad/ortrpartamordrgmaomatagpowr. I ort, cocdg-to-trv caro rqr a colc

o partclar strengths, signals, andstrategies.

Strengths

Party ladr ar oly lkly to adoptt r ky tratgy o cocdg-to-trvwtratcdtrorccottoprovdtmwtamarkdpowr advatag ovr ay ad all otrpoltcaloppot.provdcodctattrlgpartyjoy

xcl lt propct to mata t domac, at lat or t odgdmocratc lct o, v wtotdployg atortara corco admaplato. A cocdg-to-trvtratgytrordoot rqrtkd o mmt trat o a voltovrtrow tat may ladg colartrabgcodcvtodmocratccoco;5otcotrary,trqr5.DaroAcmogladJamA.Robo,

ct party trgt to gdt codc tat dmocratzatowl lotmaawtdrawal romocatall.

Wr do c atcdt rorccom rom? W arg tat t momportat atcdt rorc adomat partyca po a log-trm cocto to a gly capabltat apparat.6 Nowr tpotcoloal wor ld a c tatcapactybmormprvtatdvlopmtaltatoNortatadSotatAa,wcavlpdprodcratocoomcgrowtad

dtra l t raormato rvaldaywrltworld.obrt Aa party-tat ar a glydvrlot,awavbotxplordalgt lwr.7Statcapactyatorcally b pcally mprv wat wr oc calld t NwlyIdtra lzd Cotr (NIC) oKora, awa, ad Sgapor. Partydomatootatortarargma b mor proocd Ca

Malaya,Sgapor,adawata Idoa ad Kora, wr tmltary clarly playd a ctral rol

Economic Origins o Dictatorship andDemocracy(NwYork:CambrdgUvrtyPr,2006);Gdd,WatDoWKow?;adGaryW.Cox,AtortaraElctoadLadrpScco,1975-2004,PaprprtdattaalmtgotAmrcaPoltcalScc

Aocato,oroto(Sptmbr2009).

6.DaSlatradSoaFr,StatPowradStaygPowr:IratrctralMcamad

AtortaraDrablty,Journal o InternationalAairs65:1(Fall/Wtr2011);LvtkyadWay,CompttvAtortaram.

7.JopWog,Betting on Biotech: Innovation andthe Limits o Asias Developmental State(CorllUvrtyPr,2011)adHealthy Democracies:Welare Politics in aiwan and South Korea(CorllUvrtyPr,2004);DaSlatr, Ordering Power:Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans inSoutheast Asia(NwYork:CambrdgUvrtyPr,2010);adRcardDor,BryaRtc,adDaSlatr,SytmcVlrabltyadtOrgoDvlopmtalStat:NortatadSotatAaComparatvPrpctv,InternationalOrganization59(Sprg2005),pp.327-361.

slateranD WOnG, COntinueD(continued rom page 3)


13/4213


log-latg atortara rgmalogd party apparat. Yt vKoraadIdoawrotparty-dominatedlktrdvlopmtaltatgbor,wargtat,orprpo

otdygdmocratzato,tywrbotctvlyparty-ledrgm.bcatwapartyladradotmltaryladrwomadtdcotococddmocratzato.

Atoryotat-ldrapddvlopmtrdodtotpoltcalbtotrlg party a varty o way. Amprv rcord o traormatvaccomplmttcoomcralm

provdtkdoablpattatprovvtaloraormrlyatortaraparty kg rgrat o drdmocratc codto.8 Dcad otat-lddtralzato adpovrtyrdcto cbat a vbrat mddlclawtmodratpoltcallag,makg votr l cptbl to tappalorormtcallgrparttat lack ay tabld rcord ootrgdvlopmtalcc.Idd,

w rlg part dvlopmtaltat cocd ad lad dmocratcrorm drg rlatvly good tm,9tycapctrtolygcattrattotrcodrablpoplartyad lgtmacy: tr odmocratccaractr.

Signals

Yt vat t bto tmadwtt mot ampl o rorc at tr

dpoal,rlgpartwllalwayay coco o dmocratzato aa rk. For cocdg to b prcvda a calculated rk, owvr, rlgpartmtotolyavmprv8.AaGrzymala-B,Redeeming the CommunistPast: Te Regeneration o Communist Parties in EastCentral Europe(NwYork:CambrdgUvrtyPr,2003).

9.StpaHaggardadRobrtKama,TePolitical Economy o Democratic ransitions(Prcto:PrctoUvrtyPr,1995).

atcdt trgt; ty mt alocorotaclaradtroggaltattrapxodomatoapad.Acocd-to-trv caro lklytooldwarlgpartyappar

tr to b matag powr at tvr yapxorrapd lyrtlg towardt adr.Itmotlklytooccrwclar ad trog gal dcat tatt party a pad t prm, bt oly lowly kg toward party poplarty ad rorc v--v tmotmportatrval.

Mor pccally, a rlg partywl l mot lkl y cocd-to-tr v

w t t ll xpct to w pr-majortara pport a dmocratclcto,partlytaktoatortaralgac o xtrm grrymadrgad malapportomt. Dmocratccocobcomllkly,owvr,atpropctorcmbttocraoldvctorybcommorcrta.I,orxampl,trlgpartyrtdmocratc rorm or too log adt poplarty plmmt, t tral

coo ray , ad t lgtmacyormlabcomdcrdtd,tpartyrk a tato wr a dmocratclcto wll prodc mmdato tr gt dat ad prap vrtrbtoagattladr.10Itcaro,trlgpartyolyoptoar to accpt dat ad prpar acombackromtrakooppoto,or to la rpro agat toppot a bd or trrptd

atortara gmoy. lattrotcom crrt ly oldg cotmporary Baatt Syr a adZANU-r Zmbabw, or xampl.Or,awwttNatoalPartySotArca,rlgparttatold

10.CdrcJord,TMatrGo,btDotHoStllStad?TFatoSgl-PartySytmatrtDatoSglPartWtArca,EdwardFrdmaadJopWog,d., Politicalransitions in Dominant Party Systems: Learning toLose(NwYork:Rotldg,2008).

oortoologcaplmmtoartattybcomctvlyoboltromtmomtopoltcalopg.Watggttattrakdowtpotwctroglyrorcd

rlgpartarmotlklytococd-ad-trv. Sc a party tr tzoporcvgworromgalodclgpoplartyadlgtmacy,owvr,wcallta bitterwtpot.

Wat kd o vt pr tpcall yclar ad trog gal to aatortara party tat t a padt apx? Mc a dv lopmtatat provd a varty o orc o

atcdt trgt to rlg partgal o tr growg vlrabltyalotakavartyoorm.Sctyoccr w a rlg par ty rmadomat, t dvr gal a lmlarlycomaaroock.rttypoocklctoral.Walog-domatrlgpartyrtrotcablloolctoralpporta compttv atortara or mordply dmocratc lcto, t a

pcally clar gal tat a partypoplarty a bg to wa. Scrltcabblamdoapoplardvdalladrratrtaayclarotgopportortpartywrlarg,adcotbtakaaclagal tat a party apx a padYt t act tat lcto drctlycaptr parta prrc o votrma tat lctoral ock ca rva pcally clar ad trog gal

o cpt dcl. For tac, tKMawaadtDJPSotKora co t pat o dmocratcrormatrtrlctoraldomacad bg to wa, v drcodto o codrabl rproadvrgrrymadrg,drgtarly1980.

A cod commo typ o ock

Sl a t er a n d Won g


14/4214


coomc.Evttrogtcoomar ar rom mm rom globalacaltrmol,atdvlopmtaltatoNortatadSotatAalard t lat 1990. Ecoomc

ock ar zzr gal o par tywak g ta lctoral ock, ctycabmorradlyadcrdblyblamd o xogo actor adactor. Yt ty do td to craprr bot otd ad wt aatortararlgpartyorpoltcalrorm,adcabwdlyprcvdaa trog gal tat t atortaramodlapadtprm.Irgmtat ar dply dpdt po tr

trackrcordocoomcprormacor tr dpr torcal lgtmacya wl l a or tr mor proxmatpoplarty, coomc gal cab amog t mot powrl o a ll .Ev w lctoral pport rmarlatvlygood,ddlybadcoomctdg ca ga l ta t a rgm pagromtapxtoabttrwtpot mot codcv or cocdg-ad-trvg.

Otbr t o cotto poltcrprt a t rd commo k d oock.rotmplytz o pblc prott, bt t type. Agalopartydclwllbpcallytrog ad clar prott ot olytargt t rlg party polc, btbroadlyqtotrgttorl.Sgaltrgtadclartyaraloacdto t dgr tat t oppoto

movmtcro-clacompotoadatoaltrtorc.cro-claatrocottooppotoawmrgawa,Kora,adIdoatralztattratgtodvdadcoqr,partclarlyorto rgm orgally odd oprotctopact amd at tablzgtpoltybycotagadpprgt orc o t radcal Lt.11 11.Slatr,Ordering Power.

atoalt ortato o oppotomovmt callg t xttalcor o t rlg party lgtmacyormla,wcltcrdblclamtoavavdtatoromcaoad

backward.

Fal ly, a ort k d o c lar adtroggaltatargmapadt apx o powr ca b gopoltcal.May ot mot atortarargm t potcoloa l wor ldavdpddtoatlatomdgro prpowr patroag, pcallydr g t Cold War. W cpoor crdbly trat to rtract

pportlmagltptowarddmocratzato ar tak, t ldaddd wgt to to orc wttrlgpartywowtoattmpta cocd-to-trv tratgy. A wtlctoral, coomc, ad cottogal, c gopoltc al galby o ma mak a rl g par ty dco to rk a cocd-to-trvtratgy vtabl. Yt ty mak tmorprobabl,adtaprobabltc

argmttatwardvlopgr.

Strategies

Cocdg-to-trvvratrctralmpratv, bt a trctrd coc.Hcwdtocomplmttrctralcodratowtxamatootmor cotgt ad agtv actortat tr cocdg-to-trv rom avabl ad lkly otcom to a actalo. Sc powrl domat party

ttto td to vt xtrmlytrog dco-makg powr tadotrtopladr,dmocratccocoltmatlyrltromttratgccodratootvrytoppartyladrpcaCagCg-Koawa,Roa-WooKora,adB.J.HabbIdoa.Wtdootargtatamajortyorlg-partymmbrmtdacocdg-

to-trvtratgytobtrproatrt.Itmormportattatcatratgybctv-compatblort party ladrp w t partytr t bttrwt pot tat l

mcclortotapxtatadrI m, part wt t strength tococdavolyadoptdt strategyto cocd atr rcvg clar adtrog signalstattrpowrwacptbtgradaldcl.

Conceding and hriving in Asia

Or tr tal ca o cocdg-ad-trvgarKora,awa,addobtlly mot cotrovr a ll y

Idoa. ca o Idoamgt m at rt glac to appara trag o to compar wt Koraadawa.Ytacttbrgtoarprrltmportacotkyactorwcotdaptlkloodo a cocd-ad-trv caroatcdt trgt, worromgal,adladrtratg.WraKora ad awa xprc otrog-tatdmocratzatoarot

xplad by t cotr tcrtycocrwttrcommgbor, t actor wa abt Idoa dmocratc trato. Nodd Idoa rlg Golkar partyavayotdmocratcarratvrg trog t tory tat ot vokd to xpla t KMdmocratc xcptoalm awaFrtrmor, Idoa ow tatr t dvlopmtal tat or

trlgpartydbxtraordarlytrogoracocd-ad-trvcaroto b vabl. Dpt t rptatoadamagtrdromtaocatowt t d crdtd dctator, Sar toGolkar a lvragd t atcdtrrtoral ratrctr to pototl at t art o vry coaltogovrmtcPrdtB.J.Habbcocdddmocratclcto1999



15/4215


Idoa xprc t ggttatttroldoatcdtparty-tatrorccaryorcocdg-ad-tr v g mgt b lowradt mor pottal ly gral zabl

to a wdr array o cata txprcoKoraadawaalowold mply.

Atr codrg t tr potvca, w td to ga varato oordpdtvarablbyagtabc(atlattodat)otrog-tatdmocratzato tr addtoalAa ca: Malaya, Sgapor, adCa. I Malaya, w cotd tat

UMNOtrdtbttrwtpotatt am tm a Idoa Golkar1998.YtwatwaprcvdaaambvaltgalompdgtroblortrlgpartyrltgromtAaacalcr,plapcallycorcvcmbt,ldUMNOtomtprmopporttytococd-ad-trv. By cotrat, Sgapor rlgPAPcrrtlytdalpototococdadtrv,avgjtrd

xpctdbtqtmldtbackt2011lcto.bgqtoSgaporwtrtwllbtaka a trog og gal to warratdmocra t c coc o, gv tPAP cotd pr-majortaratrgt.Fally,wargtatCaCCP wll av a pcally dclttm at cal brat g t b ttrwtpot t abc o compt tvatortaralcto,aabctat

alo rdc codc tat t coldrlably w r ad ar lcto ty wr prmttd. ky pot,owvr,tatwramotcolarggt tat Ca bt op or

dmocratzato l tr a ar-trmcoomccraorarrparabltralpartyrt,woracarowctCCPmgtbmorlklyto cocd dmocratc rorm rom

a poto o crad trgt tao o xtrm wak. Idd, orramwork ggt tat t claccla m by ODoll ad Scmttrtat dmocratc trato vrallyrqrmportatdvowttatortara rgm tlmgt otalwayoldtr.12

Apologt or Aa atortaramav log matad tat t rgo

dtctly ll-td or dmocracy.Or r amwork ggt, by tarkcotrat, tat t dvlopmtal ta t o Nortat ad SotatAa a r pc al ly well-td ordmocratzato. Ulk rgo ot wor ld wr t alr o aator tara rgm trat talr o t tr tat apparat,Aa tockd wt tat tat ar ctly robt to dl vr good

govrac, wtr mad byatortaraordmocratcladrp.y ar alo b ldwt modratad corvatv mddl-clalctorat tat td to prr partwt old dvlopmtal rcordovr ttd mor rormt adrdtrbtvpartycallgr.Japa,SotKora, adawa avprovt pot mot mpatcally. Eva cotry wt a wobblr Lvata

tat rd a mor tmltoatortaraxtcaIdoaa

12.GllrmoODolladPlppScmttr,ransitions rom Authoritarian Rule: entativeConclusions about Uncertain Democracies(Baltmor:JoHopkUvrtyPr,1986).

owtatdmocratzatotwako dcad o rapd tat-ld growttdtobmarkdbycottymortapavalgovrgcoalto ky mplcato tat doma

ator tar a par t ca m la rlycag t r rgm type wtocagtobtctralplayrtrgm itsel dvlopmtal party-tatcaSgapor,Malaya,advCa.

Dan Slater is an associate proessor o

pol it ical science at the Univer sity o

Chicago. His book, OrdrgPowr:CottoPoltcadAtortara

LvataSotatAa,waspub lished in the Cambridge Studi es in

Comparative Politics series in 2010.

His articles have appeared in a range

o disciplinary and interdisciplinary

journals including theAmrcaJoraoPoltcalScc,AmrcaJoraoSocology,ComparatvPoltc,ComparatvPoltcalStd,KyotoRvwoSotatAa,Idoa,Itratoal Orgazato, Std

Comparatv ItratoaDvlopmt,and theawaJoraloDmocracy.Joseph Wong i s Proessoro political science and Canada Research

Chair at the University o oronto

where he is also the Director o the Asian

Ins titute. Wong is the author o BttgoBotc: Iovato adtLmtoAaDvlopmtalStat(2011)andHaltyDmocrac:WlarPoltc awa ad Sot Kora (2004)both rom Cornell University Press. He is

also co-editor, with Edward Friedman, o

PoltcalratoDomatPartySytm:LargtoLo(Routledge,

2008).



16/4216


opratoalz d wt t mbro powr ar g par tr ad tprctagotpoplatoxclddromrprtatoattgtlvl

ogovrmt.

Iwatollow,Iowtatpoltcaltttodootacttto-poltc al powr cograto ytmatc way ad tr t odrct caal rlatop btwttto ad pac. Frtrmor,ttttoalodotowmcoadrctctotprobabltyoarmd col ctty dot m to

provdtrogogctvtotrt dyamc o poltcal compttooto pacl track. I cocld tatratr ta tttoal grg,prvto or t old oc ot d-acto powr cograto adtry to otr clv govrmt,watvr tttoal orm t tak. xt cto valat wtrpoltcal ttto act t powrcograto ad t drctly alo

tlkloodocolct.Sctotwodc pobl drct aocatobtw ttto ad colct adctotrcocld.

Bor I procd, a ot o t dataorc ordr. For t to-poltcalpowrcograto,IrlyotEPRdatat.Badotxprto vral doz cotry pcalt,t l t all tc catgor tat ar

mmallypoltcallyrlvatoracya r ad ac cotry. For ac ot catgor, t lvl o accto ad rprtato t ctralgovrmt wa dtrmd or acya r,garoordalcatgor :moopoly powr, domac, orad jor partr powr argarragmt , rgoal atoomy,powrladdcrmatdagat.2

2.Tdatacabacdat:ttp://dv.q.arvard.

For t prt prpo, I wll al -grad dtcto btwclddgropadtoxclddromctralgovrmtpowr.codgotdpdtvarabltakrom

t Etc Armd Colct datat,wc bad o tUppala ArmdColctDatat(UACD)datat3adaddormatoowtrorotarbl orgazato gt t amo ad prdomatly rcrt amogapcctccommty.Gvttopcotay,allollowgaalyarrtrctdtotvrotccolct.

o a t mpact o pol t calttto,Iwllalltavalabldatat tat av b ambld tpatdcad:Grrgadackrcodgoro-atocratccotrc1945(Gorort),tWorldBakdatatopoltcalttto4d/dv/dv/pr.FordtaltolappdxoWmmrtal.2009.

3.Ibd.

4.TortBck,GorgClark,AlbrtoGro,

wc tart 1975 (WB or ort)Polt y3 or dralm rom 1946to 1994, ad t Ittto adElctoProjctdata 5tatcovrallcotrc1972(IAEPorort).

Bot t IAEP ad t WB datacota vry -grad codg olctoral ytm ad dralm adI wll vral marmt taca b drvd rom tr data. Polty3datatatadvatagotbroadtcovrag.

Mayb t aocato btw

dmocracyadcloprodcdbyarvrcaalct?Doglvloxclobtdmocratzato? xactly wat Modl 5 ggt, PlpKradPatrckWal,NwoolComparatvPoltcalEcoomy:TDatabaoPoltcalIttto,World Bank Economic Review15(J2001):165176.

5.PatrckRga,adDavdClark,ItttoadElctoProjct.Accdatttp://www2.bgamto.d/poltcal-cc/ttto-ad-lcto-projct.tml.DpartmtoPoltcalScc,BgamtoUvrty.

Dependent variable

Proportion of population excludedFuture

change inexclusion

Democratictransition

next 5

years

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5

Democracy, lagged -0.5630** -0.8109** -0.5796* -0.0048

(0.216) (0.297) (0.237) (0.009)Fully proportional systems 0.4561

(0.280)Fully parliamentary systems 0.0753

(0.358)Fully federal systems -0.3006

(0.525)Democratic transition during past 10 years 0.0303 -0.0147

(0.212) (0.012)Proportion of population excluded -0.9679*

(0.465)

Number of observations7,024 3,404 6,819 6,092 4,439

Notes on No. of observations Withoutautocracies

Non-democracies

only

Not:Cotrolortzotlargttcgropadtmbrogrop(modl1-4),GDP,cbcplocaldaryar,adcotatotow;robttadardrrorpart;*gcatat5%;**gcatat1%.

Wimmer,COntinueD(continued rom page 4)

ab l 1 :Dmo cr ac y a dEt o-Pol t cal E xc l o


17/4217


Wi m m

wcttratotoa ll dmocracytdcotomodpdtvarabladtmodlpcdaalogtcrgro. am rlt roma cotry xd ct modl bado t 72 cotr tat drwta dmocratc t rat o c 1945(rltotow).

corr lato btw dmocracyadclomaytrorrltroma lcto mcam: Etocratcrgmtatxcldlargproportoo tr poplat o caot poblyrk dmocratzato c t woldmotlklymatattywoldavtovacatttro.kocrrtRwada domatd by a mall tltoormrxlromUgada;ortkoSaddamHtocratcadSltatcrgm.crtalyttatvadprlmarydgrparal ll to otr td tat owowcoomcqaltyamprtpropctodmocratzato.6

Direct Eects on the Probability o

Armed Ethnic Conlict

Howvr, cold dmocracy,proport oal m, ma jor ta r am,ad dral m av a drct cto colct propt y? Soldtdmocrac a llow or t paclrolto o colctg trt vaa mpl ad lgt mat mcamo adjdcat g btw tm? tr qattatv rarc ltratr

agr tat dmocrac ar ot morpacl ta otr typ o poltcalrgm.Evtmormodtclamtat dmocrac ad atocrac arbotmorpacltataocratcrgm tat l btw tm a

6.CarlBoxadSaC.Stok,EdogoDmocratzato,World Politics55(Jly2003):517549.Foramoracdtrprtato,CrtaHol,IqaltyadDmocracy:WyIqaltyHarmCooldatobtDoNotActDmocratzato,World Politics61(Octobr2009):589622.

bpttoqto.Prvotdtatrportdtataocracarmorwar-pro 7wrmotlybadotPoltyIV datat, womarmtoaocracycldtpoltcalcolct or v volc8c tatt prvo dg bold dow toowgtatcolctxplavolc.Gldtc t a l.9 att mpt to ddt dmocratc cvl pac argmtby g aotr marmt odmocracy. Howvr, t potlatdvrtd U-ap oly old wcotrollgoraotootrpoltcalvar ab l,10btotamplmodlwtol yba ccovarat.11Wat lt to xam wtr t r a drct ct oproportoalm, parlamtarm, ordral m. May av argd tatprdtal dmocrac c a tUtd Stat cra t zro-mcaractr o poltcal comptto adttcacovoltcolct, 12w lpar lamtar aytmarmorcodcv to pol t cal compromad gotato. Otr mata t

7.ajaEllg,ColorlCommtyorEtcWtcBrw?MlttctyadDomtcCoctdrgadatrtColdWar,Journalo Conict Resolution44(Aprl2000):228249adHavardHgr,ajaEllg,ScottGatadNlPttrGldtc,owardaDmocratcCvlPac?Dmocracy,PoltcalCag,adCvlWar,18161992,Te American Political Science Review95(Marc2001):3348.

8.JamRaymodVrlad,TEctoPoltcalRgmoCvlWar:UpackgAocracy,JoraloCoctRolto52(J2008):401425.

9.NlPttrGldtc,HvardHgr,adHvardStrad,DmocracyadCvlWar,MaI.Mdlarky,Handbook o War Studies III: Te IntrastateDimension(AArbor:UvrtyoMcgaPr,2009),155192.

10.Ibd.:184,modl1.

11.Ibd.,modl2.

12.JaJLz,TPrloPrdtalm,Journal o Democracy1(Wtr1990):5160adArdLjpart,Democracy in Plural Societies:

A Comparative Exploration(NwHav:YalUvrtyPr,1977).

oppot:tatdvdgpowrbtwatrogprdtadaparlamtlptoavodczro-mcomptto.1

Frtrmor, lctd prdt wlbortdtowardtcommogoodo t broadr lctorat, t a bargd,ratrtatrarrowtcltl,tavodgtcalatootccomptto.14

ltr atr qallydv ddwtcomtotpacpromotgctodralm.NordlgradRodr15 arg tat dralmprovdatrogtttoalplatormromwcrgoalltcalacvo lt cot projct. Advocato dral m16 av ddd toppot ypot: Fdralm otladtotcl-rlattrgoallvl,tdcragtrlvacotpowrcogratoattctratatlvl.17

Fally, coocatoalt alo argtat proportoal ytm o lctg13.StpM.Sadma,DavdJ.Lao,Mcal

CampadSamlStato,Dmocratzato,PoltcalIttto,adEtcCoct.APooldm-SrAaly,19851998,ComparativePolitical Studies35(Fbrary2002):103129adPlpRodr,PowrDvdgaaAltratvtoEtcPowrSarg,PlpG.RodradDoaldRotcld,Sustainable Peace. Power andDemocracy ater Civil War(Itaca:CorllUvrtyPr,2005),5182,accordgtowompowrargxacrbatadtrctcdvoadltmatlyladtotabltyadcoctcalato).

14.DoaldLHorowtz,CotttoalDg:Propoalv.Proc,AdrwRyold, Te

Architecture o Democracy: Constitutional Design,Conict Management, and Democracy(Oxord:OxordUvrtyPr,2002)adBjamRlly,Democracy and Diversity: Political Engineering in the

Asia-Pacic(Oxord:OxordUvrtyPr,2006)

15.Nordlgr,1972adRodr,2007.

16.Ljpart,1977.

17.IlwtttoryoatoaltvolcbyMcalHctr,CotagNatoaltVolcAdraWmmrtal.,Facing Ethnic Conicts.oward a New Realism(Boldr:Rowma&Lttlld,2003),283-300.


18/4218


Wi m m er

mmbr o par lamt acbtatal morty rprtat ocompard to majortara rl,wc td to prodc two-partyytm wc morty caddatar l wl l.18 Idpdt o tpowr cograto at t lvl octral govrmt, wc a wav abov ot lcd byparlamtarm,cmortyrprtatotlglatvbracogovrmtcoldlptomodratmorty dmad ad o t otradacqatmajortyrprtatvwt t prpctv ad d omort.19

I wl l d c t rlat o btwt tr tttoal arragmtad armd colct two drttp. I t rt tp, I k to dot wtr ttto act tcarmdcolctgral.codtp procd to a mor -gradaalywcIdtgbtwgtg btw powr argpartr ad rbllo t amoxclddtcgrop.allow

18.S,owvr,tdgoAdrwRyold,Designing Democracy in a Dangerous World(Oxord:OxordUvrtyPr,2011:114-116tatmajortararlavrltdmormortyrprtatoparlamttaotrlctoralytm.Itbadottdyolctorlt50cotr.SaloLjpart,1994ad1999.19.Forarvwotdbatbtwctrptalt,advocatgprdtalm,majortaram,adtaraytm,adcoocatoalt,woavorparlamtarm,proportoalm,addralm,Rlly,2006.Mayotrtttoalatr,cldgatra-

rgoalpportbaaapr-rqtorpartyrgtratoormorcomplxlctoralrlcataltratvvotytm,arotaocatdwtctrptalm.SBjamRlly,Ctrptalm:Cooprato,accomodato,adtgrato,StaWoladCrtallaYakto, Conict

Management in Divided Societies: Teories and Practice(Lodo:Rotldg,2011).Tamgoortcoocatoalapproac,wcaloadvocatmtalvtorgtagradcoaltootcpart.Tmordtaldtttoalarragmtarotdtprvwotcaptraaly,trbcaglobaldataotavalablorbcaomottttoalatravbappldolyvryrarly.

g wtr polt cal tttoor d rt ctv or tocldd to t ctral govrmtpowrtrctradortoxclddromt,wtcorrpodglydrtctoarmdcolct.

Ethni c Armed Conl ict as the Dependent

Variable

Otr rarcr av alradyow tat tr o vdc tatproportoal ytm rdc tlkloodoarmdcolctgral,cldg tc ad o-tccolct.20Btmaybproportoalmact pccally tc colct, aargd by coocatoalt? abl 2valattpropoto.Modl1to3tammodlpccatoadtamtodpdtvarablataalyWmmrtal. 21Eacmodl a drt codg oproportoalm,badotG,WB,ad IAEP datat rpctvly. Noo t varabl prodc tattcallygcat rlt, v tog tcoct at lat all pot to tam(gatv)drcto.22

Modl4to6valatprdtaly tm ar mor or l volcpro. Prvo rarc bot o llcal cvl war ad o lowr ttyarmd colct a aga ow tat

20.GraldScdradNaWomr,Rltatmattr:Poltcaltttoadtdvrtycoctx,Journal o Peace Research45(Marc2008):183-203adGldtctal,2009.

21.Wmmrtal,2009.22.Tcotrat,atlatpart,wtMartaRyal-Qrol,Etcty,poltcalytm,adcvlwar,

Journal o Conict Resolution46(Fbrary2002):29-54,worporttatcloarypoltcalytm,ddaproportoaladparlamtaryytm,arlprototccvlwarrom1960to1995.Itdfclttodtrm,owvr,wcpoltcaltttoprodcwcct,ccodavarabltatcro-clavarolmtwtacotr:0ddarpoltcalytm,1rrtor,majortara,adparlamtaryytm,2torprdtalytm,ad3torproportoaladparlamtaryytm.

prdtalytmarotmor,olcolctpro.23Btwatwoc pccally o tc colctctarattcorotdbatamogcotttoalgr?Aga,o gcat ct mrg (Modl4to6),wtrtmodlgtG,tWB,ortIAEPdatat.amo-rltobtad,Ioldot, w w valat wtrparlamtaryytmarmororlpro to xprc armd col c(rltotow).24

al v modl (7 to 12vtgat a pob l r lat opbtw dral trctr o powradarmdtccolct.Otmotgrallvl,wotdtggbtw varo typ o armdcolct,Gldtc,HgradStrad2

av aga a lrady tabld tadralmotaocatdwtmororwtlcolcttpot-1945wor ld. Bt aga, mayb dral mprvtpccallytccolct,aargd by coocatoalt? Modl7 to 9 d rt codg o owt cottto d t dvoo powr btw drt lvl ogovrmt.26 Modl 10 to 12 gobyodtbaccotttoalt-poatatadcodowarb-atoaltdoddwldpoltcalpowrwtr provc av govrmttat ar co dpdtly o tctr(Modl10),lctgovror

23.Gldtctal.,2009adJackA.Goldto,RobrtH.Bat,DavdL.Ept,dRobrtGrr,McalB.Ltk,MotyG.Marall,JayUlldradMarkWoodward,Aglobalmodlororcatgpoltcaltablty,American Journal oPolitical Science 54(Jaary2010):190-208.

24.BototdgtadoppotototooRodr,2005.

25.Gldtc,HgradStrad,2009.26.GrrgadTackr,orxampl,codatatadraltaab-camrallglatrwtootcambrcompodotdlgatotprovc.


19/4219


Wi m m

locally (Modl 11), or ar gratda pcal tat a a atoomorgo(Modl12).

Clarly, cotttoal dralmaoctwatovrocolctpropty(Modl7to9).Btatlato o t d-acto-powr varabldo prodc a gcat rlt:Atoomoly co prov ca lgovrmt,acoddbytIAEP,

araocatdwtlarmdtccol c t (Modl 10) . rltoldp,albtatardcdlvlogcac,vwcotrolortto-poltcal powr cograto,tat , t ar o t xclddpoplatoadtmbro powrargpartrarcodrdtModl(otow).,wcab

qtcrtatattrodrctct btw provcal atoomyad col ct, a o cold am cloary tat or to wtwr powr arg partr wolda llow rgo to coo tr owgovrmt.

Uortatly, owvr, t rltarotpldwgamlarWBcodgo atoomoprovcal

govrmt (Modl 11) ad Modl10 rlat to yar atr 1972 oly,ctatwcaotbtrlyrow mc w old rly o tdg. cato rorcdby addtoal aaly (rlt otowr):WgFaroadLatcodgotccvlwarrlatgtocolctwtatlat1000battldat

t dg rportd Modl 10dapparcompltlyawll.

Disaggregating the Dependent Variable:

In ighting and Rebel lion

Maybwarrvatamorpotvcoc lo rgardg t pac-promotg ct o poltcalttto w daggrgat tdpdt varabl? It t l klytattttoactrprtatv

o tc grop tat orm part oa govrg coal t o d rt lyrom to xcldd rom ctralgovrmt rprta to? pctr tat mrg lgtlymor complx ( abl 3). ragaopportortdatatproportoalytmorprtatoactcolctprobabltytrogtgororbllo(

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Model 8 Model 9 Model 10 Model 11 Model 12

ProportionalismProportional systems, 1946-2002, G&T -0.0372

(0.396)

Proportional systems, 1975-2005, WB -0.0003(0.000)

Proportional systems, 1972-2005, IAEP -0.3325(0.332)

PresidentialismPresidential systems, 1946-2002, G&T -0.6375

(0.327)

Presidential systems, 1975-2005, WB -0.0702(0.288)

Presidential systems, 1972-2005, IAEP 0.4115(0.328)

FederalismFederal systems, 1946-2002, G&T 0.9364

(0.485)

Federal systems, 1946-1994, Polity 3 -0.1899(0.354)

Federal or federated systems, 1972-2005, IAEP 0.0554(0.236)

Auton. provincial governments, 1972-2005, IAEP -0.7074*(0.316)

Elected provincial governors, 1975-2005, WB -0.0013(0.001)

Autonomous regions, 1975-2005, WB -0.0006(0.001)

Number of observations 3,369 4,049 3,729 3,366 4,185 4,032 3,366 5,123 4,502 4,408 2,914 3,987

Notes on No. of observations Withoutautoc.

Withoutautoc.

Withoutautoc.

ab l 2 :Pol t cal I t t t o a dEt c Co l c t (l og t a a ly )


20/4220


Wi m m er

Modl 1 to 3). Ad or oly ocodg o prdt a l mt obad o t WB datat ow Modl 5do w d a g catct. Prdtalm aocatd,tmodl,wtalowrlkloodo gtg btw powr argpartr,btotwtrbllo.

cott wt t aa lyo gt g a a coqc o acommtmt problm:27 A trogprdtmgtbbttrabltoolda racto coal to togtr taa prm mtr wo dpdto parl amta ry pport. Frtrpportgtvwwtarlatoalargmt,Hal28dtattpot-

27.Wmmrtal,.2009adRolr,2011.

Sovtworld,prdtalmprodctrogly tgratd, rarccalpatroag twork ocd o tprdt,wlparlamtarmtdtorltamorragmtdytmo comptg allac twork. abovdgwoldaloldpportto to cotttoal gr wo

mpaz tat trog prdt arllklytocatrtotrowtccltlad,lctdbypoplarvot,dtoktovotacrotcdvd.

Howvr, t aocat o btwgtgadprdtalm

28.HryE.Hal,Formalcotttoormalpoltc:Itttoaddmocratzatopot-SovtEraa,World Politics63(Octobr2011):581-617.

dappar oc w tak t topol t cal powr cograto toaccot.otdtoadrctctcprdtalytmdootavmorpowr-argpartr(otow). Frtrmor, prdtalmrdc gtg oly wt opartclarcodgoprdtalmad

dootowpwgtottwo codg (Modl 4 ad 6), tragdobtabottrobtotdg.

I m, tr proportoalm oprdt a l m a ay gcact o rbl lo t am oxcldd poplato. Ad tr aroly wak ad ot vry robt gtat prdtalm mgt rdc t

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

Proportionalism

Fully proportional systems, 1946-2002,G&T

-1.3970 0.2523

(1.144) (0.409)Proportional systems, 1975-2005, WB 0.0006 -0.0005

(0.001) (0.000)

Proportional systems, 1972-2005, IAEP -0.8359 -0.2244

(1.164) (0.353)

Presidentialism

Fully presidential systems, 1946-2002,G&T

-1.0798 -0.5126

(0.675) (0.352)

Fully presidential systems, 1975-2005,WB

-1.543**

0.3651

(0.595) (0.315)

Presidential systems, 1972-2005, IAEP 0.4419 0.3909

(0.991) (0.328)

Number of observations 3,369 3,369 4,049 4,049 3,729 3,729 3,366 3,366 4,185 4,185 4,032 4,032

Model 7 Model 8 Model 9 Model 10 Model 11 Model 12

1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

Federalism

Federal systems, 1946-1994, Polity 3 2.6257** -0.949**

(0.666) (0.324)

Fully federal systems, 1946-2002, G&T 1.4013 0.8757

(0.886) (0.560)

Federal or federated systems, 1972-2005,IAEP

0.4391 -0.0517

(0.520) (0.261)

Auton. provincial gov., 1972-2005, IAEP -2.0082*

-0.4914

(0.925) (0.330)

ab l 3 :Pol t cal I t t t o a d I g t g ( co lm 1) a d Rb l l o ( co lm 2) (m lt oma l lo g t a al y )

Not:CotrolorGDP,poplatoz,lgtcractoalzato,motaotrra,poltcaltablty,aocracy,olprodcto,ogogwar,caldaryar,cbcpl,adcotatotow;robttadardrrorpart;*gcatat5%;**gcatat1%


21/4221


Wi m m

cac o gtg. lav wt dral m. rlt ar ratrcotradctory,lwtHorowtz 29amtotqaltatvvdc.

Iorotxcodgodralm,octwatovrcabdcrd(Modl 8, 9, 11, ad 12). Bt wgtPolty3data(Modl7),wccovrallcotrrom1946to1994,atrtgdgappar:Fdraltat ar gcat ly mor l klyto gtg, bt alo xprcgcatlylrbllotamo xcldd poplato ( l wtcoocatoaltargmt).Howvr,

t codg o dralm provdd byt IAEP (Modl 10) prodc qtdrtrlt:Atoomolycoprovcal govrmt ar aocatdwt l gtg bt ot wtrbllo.Walradyodagatvgcatrltortvarablwrgrgoalltccolct(Modl10abl2).Wcaowaddmorprc o to t aaly , c wow kow tat t ct l mtd

to col ct btw powr argpartr.

How to adjdcat btw ttwo colctg dg tat w gt rom t Pol ty ad IAEP cod go dral m? Mc mor dta ldaalyotactalcodgrladtcavrtattycratwoldbddtoawrtqto.Fort momt, t c to ot tat

tr ar good rao to t rt trltbadotIAEPdatatmortatodrvdromtPoltydata.Frt,tPolty3badrltdapparw Ida (a dral tat wtmay gtg colct) xclddrom t aaly , or lgtcract oalzato ot part o tqato,ortto-poltcalpowr

29.DoaldL.Horowtz,Ethnic Groups in Conict(Brkly:UvrtyoCaloraPr,1985).

cogratotaktoaccotbyaddg t mbr o powr argpartrawllatprctagotxcldd poplato to t rgro

modl(rltotow).IAEPrlt ar mor robt ad old pwtot Ida , wtot cotroll g orlgtcractoalzato,orwttto-poltcal varabl addd to tqato.Iaddto,amlarcodgo provc al a toomy (bad owtr or ot provc av locallylctd govror) alo aocatdwt gtg, v t coc t oly bordrl gcat (Modl

11).

I m, dral m do ot actrblloaygcatway,bttmaywllbtatatoomolycoprovca l govrmt rdc tcac o gtg btw powrargpartr.Omgtobjcttotroratrobrgrltromtpotovwocotttoalg rtat o d to t ak

combato o ttto toaccot ad dtagl t cttat prdtalm, dralm, adproportoalm av dmocracrom to ty ow atocrac.Elctoral rl mgt oly lccolct proc w vot cadd cag wo powr;dral m cold ow t pacygctatocratcrgmoly,wrcoqrg t ctr abl.30

o tt or t poblt y, I ra allmodl prtd abl 2 ad 3wt bampl o atocrac ad oo-atocratc rgm. rltrma btatally mlar to torportdabov.

Btprapparlamtarmowt30.ArportdbySadmatal.,2002adNacyBrmo,Awlookatdralm.Tmportottto,Journal o Democracy13(Aprl2002):96-110.

modratgctot dyamcopoltcalcompttoadcolctoly combd wt proportoalmaargd by coocatoalt? Idd

ortGrrgadackrawllatIAEPdatat,tcombatooproportoalm ad parlamtarmaocatdwtagcatlylowrrk o gtg bt do ot acrbllo. Howvr, g t WorldBak datat prodc t oppotrlt: Igtg b tw powrarg partr gcatly morlkly c coocatoal rgmw l rbllo ar aga ot l

rqtcoocatoaltat(rltotow).Icocldtattrorobtadcottaocator. ol y cott dg tacombato o poltcal tttoav o aocato watovr wtt r k o rbl lo t am oxclddpoplatobyartmotrqttypotccolcttpot-warworld.31

Inclusion Rather than InstitutionaEngineering

Im,tmgtbtatdralmorprdtalm av a dpdct o t dyamc o pol t cacomptto ad colct btwpowr ar g par tr ad rdct cac o calato to armdvo lc. Atoomo provcmak t prap l rgt to gor t pol o govrmt at t

ctr; dpdt prdt mgovrcom commtmt problm arlgcoaltootcltbttrta prm mtr rpobl to

31.Omgtargtatpoltcaltttoarctvcodtoaloapartclarto-dmograpcmak-potpoplato.Aamplttotpropoto,Iraallmodloabl2wtatractoctbtwtpoltcaltttoadtzotlargtpoltcallyrlvattcgrop.Nootwortyctappardtrlt(otow).


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Wi m m er

t rprtatv o t lt parlamt.rltrportdabovqt qvocally dcat, owvr,tat prdtalm, proportoalm,dralm, or a combato o c tt to av o c t o tmc mor prvalt orm o tccolct,..orbllobyxclddgrop. Rcallg tat 90 ot o t110 tc col ct t da tatrprt rbllo, t ggt almtd ovrall rol or ttto mtgatgcolct.

Gvtatxcloarmorrkyta t propct o gt g, tbcomvdttatpacrltotrom a pcc tttoal orm ogovrmt, bt ratr rom clvpowr cogratowatvr ttttoal orm tat ta tm., o gral rcommdat o cab mad rgardg t tttoaltp bt td to garatpac. mgt b dmocrat cor dmocratc, coocatoalor ctrptal , dral or tara,dpdg o cotxt, tor cal lytabld actor cograto, adtttoal lgac.32 No rc p otttoal rormdmocratzato, lctoral y tm grg, addctralzatom vrallytdtobrgabotpoltcalcloadtaablpac.

32.Stwralmamogcotttoal

gr:Horowtz,2004adEll,2003.

bt tratgy to avod armdcolctadwartrortootrapowrtrctrtattrtgratpol t cal actor rom all pol t cal lyrlvat tc grop or tat otbadotcallacatallbtoatadprocoatobldg,wc prom to dpol t cztctyovrtm.Ectvadlog-trm prvt o o tc col ctmgttrordtotoctvrydamtalowcaato-tatblt:bottdtootpoplwoamatatgovrdadt dgr to ad t way wctc backgrod ap acc toctraltatpowr.Itccolctmotlytrltotcaptrottatbypcctcltadtrcottc, t otg l taalatgrarragmtocpowrtrctrwllctobrgdrablpac.

Uortatly ad roca lly, cxcloary rgm ca ot olyb ovrtrow trog volc adwar. polt cal lt powrad t tc cot tc typrvlgmgtotbwllgtogvptrmoopolyovrttatadt ttto. No prvto polcyadolocalpac-bldgtatvwl lbabltoovrcomcobtacl.Itlkly,tolltrat,tatSaddamH trbaltc tocracycold av t raormd gradal ly

dr bvo lt proddg by t

trat oal commtyto argmtatwoldcldKrdadSt lt gmt to t rlgcoalto. Smlarly, Roda drwtrlowdlttlpropct,dptar tratoalacto, tomovtowardabroadbadgovrmtwtadqat rprtato o t blackmajorty.AgborgSotArcaow, owvr,gotatd tratoaway rom tocracy ar pobl ortatly rar. o cra tlkloodocpacltrato,tmaylptootrtwllgotrlglttoarpowr,cldgbybldgpcorrpodgprrromtrcottc,adtotladroxclddpoplatotowardmodratoadawayrommaxmaltclamorrvactprogram.

Andreas Wimme r is a proessor o pol itic

at Princeton University. His research aims

to understand the dynamics o nation-

state ormation, ethnic boundary making

and political conlict rom a comparative

per spe ctive . He has pur sued the se theme

across the disciplinary ields o sociology

pol it ical science, and soc ial anthr opo logy

and amateured in various methodologica

and analytical strategies: ield research in

Oaxaca (Mexico) and Iraq, comparativ

historical analysis, quantitative cross-

national research, network studies, orma

modeling, the analysis o large-scale survey

data, as well as policy oriented research.


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What Have We L ear ned?

Sbatoal dmocratzato tdavpodmrocallgtotcovtoal wdom abot rgm

ad rgm cotty ad cag.3By prt g vdc o d rtbatoal rgm wt dvdalcotr, t td call toqtorgmtypolog,wctratac cotry a a omogo t.dgalolaybarwak or tor o dmocratzato.Crat g tor oc o at oalltdcotoprmtcvllbrtad lcto, t tal tag o a

dmocratctrato.4Yt,batoaldmocratzatotdowtatcdcodootatomatcallyrlttwdmocratcpractcxtgtrogotacotry.Sococoomctorocoowcrtaocaladcoomc codto a cotry arcodcvtodmocracy. 5Sbatoal

3.Iaddtototwork,toltdoototxadvawll.EdwardGbo,BodaryCotrol:SbatoalAtortaram

DmocratcCotrWorld Politics58(Octobr2005):101-132.PatrckHllr,DgroDmocracy:SomComparatvLoromIda,World Politics52,4(Jly2000),484-519.JoataHkyadDamaryCaac,TDmoO-PartyPoltcMxcaMcpalElcto,British Journal o Political Science35(Aprl2005):257-284.KllyM.McMa,Economic

Autonomy and Democracy: Hybrid Regimes in Russiaand Kyrgyzstan(NwYork:CambrdgUvrtyPr,2006).NkolaPtrov,RgoalModloDmocratcDvlopmt,McalMcFal,NkolaPtrov,adAdrRyabov,d.,BetweenDictatorship and Democracy: Russian Post-communistPolitical Reorm(Wagto,D.C.:CargEdowmtorItratoalPac,2004),239-267

4.Rprtatvworkromtlargltratrcld:JoHglyadMcalBrto,TEltVarablDmocratcratoadBrakdow,

American Sociological Review54(Fbrary,1989).GppDPalma,o Crat Democracies: An Essayon Democratic ransitions(Brkly:UvrtyoCaloraPr,1990).DakwartA.Rtow,ratotoDmocracy:owardaDyamcModl,Comparative Politics2(Aprl,1970).

5.wokyrctworkcld:CarlBoxadSaC.Stok,EdogoDmocratzato,World Politics,55(Jly2003).AdamPrzworkadFradoPapatrraLmogNto,Modrzato:ToradFact,World Politics49(Jaary1997).

dmocra tza to td , owvr,dmotrat tat ococoomctor ovrprdct dmocratccooldato by rlyg o atoal

avrag tat mak batoalvar at o. Mor grally, t tdav glgtd ow drtorzdt proc btw dmocratctrato ad cooldato. Motbroadly, t td rmd owtrrtoryabrqtlyovrlookdpoltcalccrarc.

Iaddtotodocmtgbatoalrgm varato, batoal

dmocratzato td av bgto xpla t. Explaato ca bdvddtototatococtr-prpryrlatoadtotatoco atr o batoal rgo.6at ad,mot colar alo pay omattto to t otr t o actor. obvo t work o Car loGrvao, wo a xamd ttracto btw rgoal atrad ctr-prpry rlato.7 All

6.TpotalgtadaptatooAgtaGradyobrvatotprvootwlttr.Octr-prpryxplaato,orxampl:Gbo(2005);AgtaGrady,Subnational Undemocratic Regime Continuity aterDemocratization: Argentina and Mexico in ComparativePerspective(P.D.Drtato,UvrtyoNortCarolaatCaplHll,2009);AlrdMotro,NoCotryorLtt?CltltCottyadt2006VottBrazlaNortatJournal oPolitics in Latin America2(2010):113-153;RcardSydr,AtrtStatWtdraw:NolbralmadSbatoalAtortaraRgmMxco,WayCorl,oddA.Etadt,adJa

Hdly,d.,Subnational Politics and Democratizationin Mexico(LaJolla:CtrorUS-MxcaStd,UvrtyoCaloraSaDgo,1999).Oxplaatoocgoprovcalatr,HllrDgroDmocracy;omlaLakaadLlltGtacw,AGograpcIcrmtalToryoDmocratzato.rrtory,Ad,adDmocracyPotcommtRgoWorld Politics58(Jly2006):536-82;McMa;NcolaN.Ptro,CratingDemocracy: How Novgorod Has Coped with RapidSocial Change(Itaca,NY:CorllUvrtyPr,2004).

7.CarloGrvao,ARtrToryoSbatoalRgm:FcalFdralm,Dmocracy,adAtortaramtArgtProvc

t work old prom or llg ttortcalvodbtwdmocratctratoaddmocratccooldatobyrvalgobtacladpatwayto

cooldato.Iormatoabotldmocratc clav dmocratzgcotr lp rval obtac l tocooldato. Rarc o clavtat ar mor dmocra t c ta tatoal rgm ca ggt ma tortrdmocratzatooacotry.

Wh at Do We Nee d t o K now ?

Forbatoaldmocratzatotdto ralz tr prom o mprovg

rgm t ypolog ad tor orgmcottyadcag,wdvdcabotpattrobatoalrgm var at o wt cot r acro cotr , ad acro t mMot ormato abot batoargm varato com rom tdcotratg a w batoal twt a cotry. worka madvalab l cotr bto, a dcrbdabov; owvr, rom t w caoaowmayclavxtwta cotry. W alo lack ormatoabot t local l v l bca ttd av ocd o rgo.Evdc abot t dtr bt o oclav wt cotr at rgoaad local lvl wold b lpl tomprovgrgmtypolog.Lkwormato abot wtr crta compotodmocracy,cacvlbrt ad r ad ar lctoar cottly wakr or trog c lav wold b l. Forxampl,tmaacotrywttwo rgo wr mot compoto dmocracy ar wak ad grgowrtyartrogoldbcatgorzddrtlyromacotrywr trogot t tr r tor y o

World Politics62(Aprl2010):302-40.

8.Grady,SbatoalDmocracy,25.

McMann,COntinueD(continued rom page 4)


24/4224


compotodmocracywakadallotrartrog.lotkgmay lp r t cocpt o aybrdrgm,partclar.Ddaargmcombgdmocratcadatortara lmt,9 t cocpta,problmatcally,bcomacatc-allcatgorywtaormombrobtyp.

Sbatoal dmocratzato tdavaloblmtdbyalackocro-atoal ad cro-rgoal rarc,a omla Laka ad AgtaGrady otd t prvo o t wlttr.10 Wdootavytmatcvdcabottxtco clav drt cotr adrgo o t world. How commoar clav trogot t world?Ar clav tat ar l dmocratcormordmocratctatratoalrgmmorcommo?Rarcatdd to oc o l dmocratcclav, drv part by t logctat a atoal rgm wold ot lta mor dmocratc clav xt.11 I trmprcalvdctopporttlogc?

Oc w av dtd clav wcaarcorpattrtolpxplawy ty xt. Do l dmocrat c ormor dmocratc clav drtcot r ar m la r atr ormlarrlatopwttratoalgovrmt, a xtg r arc

wold prdc t? Ar clav morcommowtcotryacrtacaractrtc? W ca ypotztat ty ar mor commo largr9.LarryDamod,TkgabotHybrdRgm,Journal o Democracy13(Aprl2002):23.

10.LakaSypaEdavor,14.Grady,SbatoalDmocracy,26

11.JaJ.LzadAlrdStpa, Problems oDemocratic ransition and Consolidation: Southern

Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe(Baltmor,MD:TJoHopkUvrty

Pr,1996),19.

cotr, cotr wt dralytm o govrmt, ad cotrtatavrctlydrgodmocratc t rat o, or xampl.Bt, t da rqr vtgato. payo o mor ytmatc tdywl l b mprovd dmocrat zatotor. For xampl, ormatoabot clav cro-atoally adabotcotrycaractrtcwlllprorxplaatooobtaclto cooldato ad cotmplatxplaato o dmocratzato romblow.

Mot batoal dmocratzatotdpaolyaort,cotmporarytm prod ad t lav mayqto awrd.12 Ivtgatoo log trtc o tm wt acwav o dmocratz ato wold bl lmat g. Dd r t ad codwavdmocrac xprcprodobatoal rgm varato a mayotrtrdwavcotrpartav?Wr t compot o dmocracytatwrwakrortrogrclavpatwavtamawttrd wav? How wa v dmocratc dvlopmt ovrcom?W ca mag po b l patway toovrcomgv:1)tatoalgovrmt mpod dmocracy adradcatd ldmocratcclav, 2)mor dmocratc clav dmaddor orcd atoal dmocratzato,3) dmocracy dvlopd may

batoal t mltao lyor trog do, or 4) omcombato o t. Data acro alogtrtcotmwoldallowtotttypot.

r t ad cod wav alo avcrtacaractrtctatmaktmpartclarlyltotdy.rtwav tatd om o t wor ld motrpov,tabl,adprodctv

12.Grady,SbatoalDmocracy,24-25.

dmocrac,otwoldbwortwltolarmorabottm.Wltrarmayactortatavcotrbtdto tr cc, tr ablty toovrcomvdmocracymayav b o o tm. By cotrattcodwavabcaractrzdby rvral to atortaram. owat xtt dd a a lr to ov rcombatoalrgmvaratocotrbtto t rvra l? Data trtcgbacktrogtcodadtotrtwavwllallowtoxplort.

Evdc rom all tr wav wlb lpl drtadg owdmocratc t rat o ca rlt dmocratc cooldato. How t tat mltpl compot odmocracy com to b adoptd addtrogotacotry?actralpzzlxtgdmocratzatotoravotawrd.

How Can We Know?

Sbatoal data rom t V-Dmprojctwllabltoxplortqto abot rgm typolog ad rgm cotty ad cag byprovdg ormato abot pattro batoal rgm varatowt cotr , acro cotr, adacro tm. I trm o batoaormato,tprojctamtoprovddata o lcto, cvl lbrt, adgovrmtcotratadatortyat

localadrgoallvlacyarrom1900totprtorallcotrotworld.

batoal data collcto par t o V-Dm ov rall or t tocrat a dmocracy da ta t tat mltdmoal,glydaggrgatdtorcal,adtrapart.Noxtgdatatxbtalltcaractrtc.V-Dm mltdmoal

M cM a


25/4225


tat t col lct data or mrococptalzato o dmocracylctoral, lbral, majortara,coal, partcpatory, dlbratv,ad galtaratad o jt oor oly lctoral ad l bral, a commo. o captr t vcocptalz ato o dmocracy,V-Dm cld approxmatly400 mar, makg t glydaggrgatd. am to collctdataorallovrgorm-ovrgpoltoramayotdcatorapoblbackto1900.procbywcwarcollctgtdataadtqaltyotdataartrapart.Dcrpto o t data col lct otratgyaravalablromtprojctwb tadaartclPerspectiveson Politics.13Amtoytmatcba ad trcodr rlablty wll bprovddordataromcotryxprto tat r ca valat t qaltyot ormato. data wll bavalabl o-l or r to ayo. projct compltd a 12-cotryplottallo2011adabgactaldatacollctotprg.

V-Dmbatoaldatatwllbtrtotkd.Datatadrrcmatral o batoal dmocracyarcat.Motorcobatoal ormato xam govrmtprormac ad dctral zat o,1413.Sttp://v-dm.t/adMcalCoppdgadJoGrrg,wtDavdAltma,McalBrard,StvF,AllHck,Mattw

Krog,StaaI.Ldbrg,KllyMcMa,PamlaPaxto,HollA.Smtko,Svd-ErkSkaag,JryStato,adJaorll,CocptalzgadMargDmocracy:ANwApproac,

Perspectives on Politics9(2011):247-267.14.S,orxampl,TFcalAtrtyadUrbaIovatoProjct(FAUI),ttp://a.ccago.d/adDalrmadctralzatodatatavalablromttp://www.ct.cla.d/polc/aclty/trma/Pag/pbldpapr.tml.Tollowgpblcatodcrbdatattatorcratd:DalKama,FraLatradMamoMatrzz,GovracadtCty:AEmprcalExploratotoGlobalDtrmatoUrbaPrormac,DcoPapr,(Wagto,

D.C.:WorldBak,2004).JoataRoddad

otdmocratctttoorproc.Sorc tat oc o bat oaldmocracy typcally provd data orolyopartotworld.Coclo Erop Structure and Operation o Local and Regional Democracy rportoEropacotr,orxampl. 15o ta t covr mro par t otworlddootcldallcotradprovddataorolyoyaroraortprodotm.Aaddtoalproblm tat data a r o t otcomparabl acro cotr . Forxampl, t Global Obrvatory oLocalDmocracyadDctralato(GOLD)aprolo101cotrrctyar,bttdataprovddarotcottacrocotr.16

V-Dm batoal data wll comrom cotry xprt. cotryxprt ar rcrtd by t V-Dmtam to compl t o-l rvy marg pcc compoto dmocracy. r ar rvyo lct o , c v l lbrt , mdardom,cvlocty,poltcalpart,t xctv, t lglat r, tjdc ar y,d rctdmocrac y,d lbratvdmocracy, ad ovrgty. xprtartypcallyacadmc,capoltcalctt adtora, woarctzorrdtotcotrty ar codg. Idvdal arlctdwoardplykowldgabl

ErkWbbl,FcalDctralzatoadtBCycl:AEmprcalStdyoSv

Fdrato,Economics & Politics22(Marc2010):37-67.JryM.SllradAdrLdtrm,Dctralzato,LocalGovrmt,adtWlarStat,Governance: An International Journalo Policy, Administration, and Institutions20(Octobr2007):609632.

15.TCocloErop,StrctradOpratooLocaladRgoalDmocracy,avalablromttp://www.co.t/t/dgap/localdmocracy/WCD/Strctr_Oprato_Complt_Sr_.ap#.

16.GlobalObrvatoryoLocalDmocracyadDecentralisation, Decentralization and LocalGovernment in the World: Country Proles,avalablromttp://www.ct-localgovrmt.org/gold/

cotry_prol.ap

abotacotryadabotoormorpccbtatvara.Eacxprtcompltolytorvyorr ara() o xprt. Fv xprtcodacdcatororaccotry.I tory, t 400 or o dcatorV-Dm to mar atoat tto ad proc cold brplcatdatacbatoallvloraccotryoracyar.Ipractct ot pob l bca o tdadtmtatwoldbrqrdItad, w l m t batoal datcollctowaytatablV-Dmto b bot abl ad t ll glydaggrgatd, pcally compard tootrdmocracydatat,wcgorbatoalvarato.

Spccally,batoaldcatororolytrcompotodmocracylcto,cvllbrt,adgovrmcotrat ad atortyarcldd. tr wr lctdbca ty ar ctral to tgral drtadg o dmocracyad ty ar mportat to d rcocptalz ato o dmocracycldg t lctoral, l bral, adpartcpatory cocptalzato. Iaddto, xtg rarc ggttat batoal rgm varato ot caractrzd by drc lcto,cvllbrt,adgovrmcotratadatorty.

wo batoal lvl wr lctdordatacollctorgoaladlocalRgoal rr to t cod-glvl o govrmt, jt blow tatoal govrmt, ad local rrtotlvlblowtrgo.Slctgtwo lvl ma tat, or mocotr, w wll collct data aboall batoal lvl. Approxmatly56 prct o cotr av twobatoallvlad18 prctav

o,badoaamplo82cotr

M cM an n


26/4226


rom GOLD Local GovrmttWorlddataba.17odalwtcot r ta t av mor ta twobatoal lvl, trvy trctt cotr y xprt to lct trgoallvladtlocallvltat,practc,atmotrpoblt(.g. makg law, provdg prmarydcato,matagroad,polcg,tc.) ad rorcto carry ot torpoblt. Narly all cotrwt mor ta two batoal lvl avolytr,odataormototrbatoallvlwllbcollctd.

o r ta t xprt ar awr gqto abot t am batoallvl, t rvy ak tm to amttypotattrgoaladlocal lvl ty dty, or xamplmunicipiosattlocallvlMxco.Bdablgtocckordatarlablty, t ormato wll alobltl.Crrtlytro datat tat dcrb batoalgovrmtal trctrtorcally orallcotrotworld.MotlplattpottvolmAdmtratvSbdv o o Cot r, wc,otl, provd oly a mmaryocagbatoalgovrmtaltrctr or ac cotry.18 For trao, t V-Dm data wll alo bltocolartdygotro batoal govrmt, c adralm ad dctralzato, adtoayotrtdcragt

mbr o obrvato or rtdybycalgdowtoabatoallvl.19 17.GlobalObrvatoryoLocalDmocracyadDecentralisation, Local Governments in the World: BasicFacts on 82 Selected Countries,2007dto,avalablromttp://www.ct-localgovrmt.org/gold/dcator_ky.ap.

18.GwllmLaw,Administrative Subdivisions oCountries: A Comprehensive World Reerence, 1900-1990(Jro,NC:McFarlad,2008).

19.RcardSydr,ScalgDow:TSbatoalComparatvMtodStudies in Comparative

mbr o t at a gllvl a cotry ca b ormo,makg data collcto or dvdalt probtvly cotly ad tm-comg. For xampl, Brazl a5,562municipios.20oovrcomtobtacl,wcollctormatoabotavragadclav.

lctorvyaktwoqtoabotpractcoavragacrotat ac lvl. O qto olctormato abot wtr xctvadamblataclvlgrallyxtadar,practc,lctd.Iacod qto, xprt valat txtt to wc batoal lctoar r ad a r o avrag. ormato wll lp llmat owar dow (o)dmocratc practc,typcallymardolyattatoallvl,xtd.

lctoadcvl lbrt rvyac ak qto to dtrmwtr clav xt ad owd rt ty ar rom t rt ot cotry. For lct o, xprtdcatwtr batoal lctotrogot a cotry ar qally radar(or,altratvly,otradar) ; batoal lct o ompartoacotryaromwatmor(or, altratvly, l) r ad ar;orbatoallctoomparto a cotry ar gcat ly mor(or,altratvly,l)radar.A

paral ll qt o abot govrmtocal rpct or cvl l brt podawll.

lctorvytwllabltodtypccclav.21Exprt

International Development36(2001):93-110.20.GlobalObrvatoryoLocalDmocracyadDctralato,Local Governments in the World.

21.Iacotrycamtobgatr1900,tdatacollctobgwttyarotodg.Dataortlargrttyowctwaapart,caa

am t part o a cotry wrbatoal lcto ar gcatlymor r ad ar ta t avragor t cotry ad t par t o acotrywrbatoallctoargcatlylradar.yarakdtopropramotrrtorat or, w applcabl, broadcatgorcatort.

o avo d xprt at g, t cvllbrtrvydootakxprttoam pcc gograpc ara wrgovrmtrpctorcvllbrtgcatlytrogradarawrtgcatlywakr.Wdootwat xprt to b ovrwlmd: tyaralorpodgtoqtoabolcto ad cvl lbrt atoallyMorovr, w pct tat gograpcarawrcvllbrtartrogror wakr old ovrlap wt arawtmororlrad arlctorpctvly.

o lp tab l t gcac olctoral ad cvl l brt clavxprttmattprctagottotalpoplatootcotrytatlvtoara.at,xprtdcattprctagotpoplatotalvaratydgatdaavglct o tat ar gcat ly lr ad ar, a avg lcto taar gcatly mor r ad ara avg govrmt o ca l woavgcatlylrpctorcv

lbrt, ad a avg govrmocal wo av gcatly morrpctorcvllbrt.

Aotr t oqto wll lp dty caractrtc tat clavmayar.rvyakxprttodcatwtrpartoacotryor dgatd a avg lctotatargcatlylradar

coloalmpr,collctdprortotodg.

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adtpartoacotryordgatd a avg lcto tatar gcatly mor r ad arcabdcrbda1)rral,2)rba,3) mor coomcally dvlopd, 4)lcoomcallydvlopd,5)dtcaptalcty,6)otdtcaptalcty,7)tort,8)tot,9)tat,10)twt,11)araocvlrt,12) arawrllctactvty wdprad, 13) parlypoplatd ara, 14) rmot ara,15)arawrtrardgopopla to, 16) a ra wr tatoalrlgpartyorgropwak,17) ara wr t atoal rlgparty or grop trog, 18) arabjcttoalogrprodoorgrl, 19) ara bjct to a ortrpr od o or g rl, 20) arabjcttoorgrlrctly,or21)arabjcttoorgrllogago.Comparabl qto ar akd orarawrgovrmtocalavgcatlymororlrpctorcvllbrt.

lcto rvy po tbatoal qto or vr ycotryorvryyarbackto1900.A lmtato, owvr, tat tdata abot batoal rgmvar at o ad clav wl l ot xtor to tm prod w obatoallctotookplac.cvl l brt data provd a lcomplmtbcatrcovrag

otlmtdtway.

Alo locatd t lcto rvyar qto abot govrmtcotr at ad ator t y at tbatoal lvl . prpo to lp dtrm t pract calmportac o batoal lctoad by xto t gcaco lctoral clav. Ca ctz,

trog t lctoral proc, lmtt acto o govrmt? Dolctd o c av t ator tyto act o votr prrc? ollmat t , w ak txprt wtr lctd oc arbordat to o-lctd oc,qalpowrtoo-lctdoc,or mor powrl ta o-lctdocataclvl.

lcto ad cvl lbr trvy wll provd data abot txttobatoalrgmvaratowt cotr o two maro rgm typt r adarolctoadgovrmtocal rpct or cvl l brt.Wt t ormato w cabttr drtad t dtrbtooclavadxplorwtrldmocratc o ar, act, morcommotamordmocratco. t o vdc ca lp rrgmtypolog.Dataabotclav caractrtc wll abl to look or mlar t amogl dmocratc clav, a wll aamog mor dmocratc clav. ormato wll lp bttrdrtadobtacltocooldatoadpatwaytodmocratzatoadtmprovtotor.

batoal data copld wtt atoal data rom V-Dm ovrt m wl l provd cl a to ow

trrtoral v dmocracywa ov rcom om cotr ac o t tr wav odmocratzato.Itrvdcoamordmocratcatoalpoltyadadcragmbroldmocratcclavovrtm?Or,dowaldmocratcatoalpoltyadagrowgmbromordmocratcclavovrtm?ormato

wl lblpl coctgtoro trato ad cooldato ada a rlt avg a mor compltxplaato o dmocratzato adotrormorgmcag.22

V-Dm batoal dataad arlr rarc approaccomplmtacotr.Catdo dvdal clav ad larg-aalyotrrtoraltwtoortwocotravrvaldpzzlad dvlopd ypot tacoldowbtromtdyacrocotraddrtragt V-Dm data. Aaly o tV-Dmdatawllalodtypzzltat td o dvdal clavadcotrcalpdrtadogtr t approac calp mprov or rgm typologad tor o rgm cottyad cag a wl l a drtadbatoaldmocratzato.

Kelly M. McMann is an associat

proess or o pol itical sci ence at Case

Western Reserve University and

the subnational government projec

manager or Varieties o Democracy. He

work on subnational democratization

includes Ecoomc Atoomy adDmocracy : Hybrd Rgm RaadKyrgyzta(2006).

22.OtrV-Dmrvyopoltcalpart,dlbratvdmocracy,adovrgtycollctaddtoalormatoabotbatoallvl,capoltcalpartractobatoalt;trolobatoaltplbct,rrda,adtatv;adtatcotrolovracotrytrrtory.

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Call or Applications: Reagan-Fascell

Democracy Fellowships in Washington,

D.C.:

TRaga-FacllDmocracyFllowProgramattItratoalForm

orDmocratcStd(IFDS,U.S.)vtapplcatoorllowp20122013.Tdrallyddprogramabldmocracyactvt,practtor,colar,adjoraltromarodtworldtodptrdrtadgodmocracyadactrabltytopromotdmocratccag.Ddcatdtotratoalxcag,tv-mot,rdtalprogramoracollgalvromtorllowtorctotr

xprc;codctdpdtrarcadwrtg;codrbtpractcadlolard;gagwtcotrparttUtdStat;addvlopprooalrlatopwtaglobaltworkodmocracyadvocat.

Tprogramtddprmarlytopportpracttor,colar,adjoraltromdvlopgadaprgdmocrac;dtgdcolarrom

tablddmocracmayaloapply.AworkgkowldgoEglrqrd.Allllowrcvamotlypaymt,altrac,travlatac,adrarcpport.Tprogramdootdprooaltrag,ldwork,ortdtworkgtowardadgr.Tprogramwllottwov-motllowpo20132014:Fall2013(Octobr1,2013Fbrary28,2014)adSprg2014(Marc1Jly31,2014).

Te online application system will openJuly 15, 2012, and applications are due

by October 15.Plawww.d.org/llowpormorormato.

New Data rom Americas Barometer

Available

DataromawrodotAmrcaBaromtr2012,carrdotbytLatAmrcaPblcOpoProjct(LAPOP)wtVadrbltdpartmt

opoltcalcc,owavalabl.Itcovr26cotradatrmorta40,000trvwadormatoovrydpdtcotryromCaadatoArgta,cldgvralcotr

tCarbba.Nwtmortrodclddcrmato,tmltary,adCa.LAPOPalovrypladtoaoctatrawlromttrAmrcaBaromtrr,wcdatbackto2004,ardowloadablorratwww.LapopSrvy.org.Itttoalbcrbr,owvr,wllrcvPrmmAcc,wccldtcpport,acctomrgddatabaacrocotryadacrotm,adStataprogrammgl.

neWs FrOm members

Michele Penner Angrist,aocatprooropoltcalcc,UoCollg,pbldWar,RtgtWt,adWomLabor:owardaUdrtadgoArabExcptoalm,tMarc2012Politics & Gender.M.AgrtargtatcotrwtMlmmajortypoplatoarvwdaplacwr

womarpartclarlyopprddtolargmal-malltracygapadgrmal-malpoplatoxrato.SprvorarctoxplatatwtrrrrgtotbtacoIlamcaralawortotwaywcpoltcadrtocorvatvtrprtatooaralawordrtobldadcooldattrlgtmacy,trprtatooIlamclawadtprvalgatttdtycratarakyclprtmayaccotogdr

qaltyMlmcotr.

Allyson Benton,rarcprooropoltcaltd,CtrodIvtgacyDoccaEcomca(CIDE),MxcoCty,pbld,BottomUpCallgtoNatoalDmocracy:Mxco(Lgal)SbatoalAtortaraEclavtAprl2012Comparative Politics,wcxamtwayMxcocommty-baddmocratcttto,kowa

UadCtomytm(UyC),avactdlocaladatoalpoltc.M.BtotattcalaalyoatoallctorlttoowtatmcpaltttatoOaxaca,wcormally

adoptdUyCytm,xprcdgrrt-placpartymargadgrlvloabttocompardtoo-UyCytm.ScocldtatUyCrlappartoprrvlocalatortaraclav,wtgatvcoqcordmocracy.

Jason Brownlee,aocatproorogovrmt,UvrtyoxaatAt,waawarddagratromtUtdStat

ItttoPactopportrarcoPrvtgItr-CommalVolcdrgEgyptrato.Tprojctttrvalypototr-commalcocttodtrmwtrat-Coptcvolcaorgatdlctvlaworcmtbyofcalor,tad,cooaltotmromalackocrocttgtcvlocty.DatawllbcollctdCarorommajorwpapradtrvw,tcoddadaalyzd

At.Tdatatwlllpxplavaratoattackacrogograpyadtm,cldgtlatyaroMbarakrladrtyaratrotr.Itparamotobjctvtordctr-commalcrtyadvolc.

Javier Corrales,prooropoltcalcc,AmrtCollg,pbldLGBRgttAmrcatSprg2012Americas Quarterly.Mr.

Corralarttatctzadatocraglyrcogztatrdomadqaltydrtlawrqrprotctgtrgt,tat,adxproolba,gay,bxal,adtragdr(LGB)popl,btclamtataltogLatAmrcaaladrprovdgrgttotLGBctz,poplaratttdtrgotlllagbdtrtotworld.

Mr.Corral,alogwtDalAltclr,

seCtiOn neWs


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alopbldTSpllovrEctoPartcpatoryGovrac:EvdcromCommty-MaagdScoolHodraadGatmala,tMay2012Comparative Political Studies.Uga

largrvyopartcpatcommty-maagdcooltrogotHodraadGatmala,tatordtatcvcpartcpatoodomaopblclcaladtomorpartcpatolwr,o-calldpllovrct.

odd A. EisenstadtwapromotdtollproortdpartmtogovrmtatAmrcaUvrty.H2011bookPolitics, Identity, and Mexicos Indigenous

Rights Movements(CambrdgUvrtyPr)wot2012VaCottPrzromtPoltcalItttoSctootLatAmrcaStdAocato.Amacrptco-dtdwtMcalS.Dalo,JamBalo,adCarloSorroza,Latin Americas Multicultural

Movements and the Struggle Between

Communitarianism, Autonomy, and

Human Rights,ajtbaccptdorpblcatobytOxordUvrtyPr.

Carlos Gervasoni,atatproor,UvrdadorcatoDllaBoAr,Argta,t2012rcptotElJ.adHlSaGradatScoolAward,P.D.SocalSccDvo,romtUvrtyoNotrDam.Mr.Grva

Apsa Cdjune2012

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