April 23, 2012 SW Educational Purchasing Council Commodities Management Group (CMG) 1.

April 23, 2012

SW Educational Purchasing Council

Commodities Management Group (CMG)

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This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.

Agenda

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1.Impact of Weather

2.State of the Economy

3.Supply & Demand Fundamentals

4.Pricing Trends


Supply & Demand

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Short-Term Fundamental Drivers


Natural Gas Production Continues Pressure Downward

Data Source: EIA

Customer Takeaway: US gas production remains steady despite drop in rig counts as oil rig growth boosts associated dry gas output

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• Natural gas directed drilling is off 29% year-over-year, while oil rigs are up 50%• 2011 NG production grew at the largest year-over-year volumetric increase in history• Slower 4.5% growth is forecasted for 2012 as low price environment leads to production cuts


NG Producers in the News

Customer Takeaway: Low gas prices due to over-supply has caused many gas producers to reduce operations or shift to higher value liquids plays to restore market balance

Source: EIA, Chesapeake, Encana, Conoco Philips CONSOL, ExxonMobil

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1. Chesapeake Energy, 10% dry gas productionCurtail up to 1 Bcf/d of production & 67% drop in rigs w/ shift towards liquids

2. Encana, 2nd largest (reduce 600 mcf of production) it is abundantly clear that a continued reduction of drilling activity will be required to restore market balance

3. Conoco Philips, 7th largest NG producer”may have some shut-ins in gas production up to 0.1bcf/d”

4. CONSOL Energy cuts $200M from 2012 capital budget,

5. ExxonMobil, largest NG producer at 4bcf/d”We are very bullish on NG as an energy source. Still running 65 rigs but have relocated a lot to liquids”


Natural Gas Storage Hits All-Time High Of 2,479 Bcf

Customer Takeaway: As a result of the excess storage and cheap prices, producers are more likely to reduce output and/or demand is likely to increase via power burns

Source: EIA CNE

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U.S. storage as of 3/30:

• 56% (+887 Bcf) above year ago level of 1,592 Bcf

• 60% (+934 Bcf) above 5-yr avg of 1,545 Bcf

• Net injections began the week ending Mar 16th

• Weak winter demand major contributor to high storage

This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to CNE’s business as a physical energy provider. CNE does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA. 7

Rockies to East: Dropping More off in Midwest

REX flows into Ohio have declined this winter due to continued growth in Marcellus but deliveries into Chicago market are slightly up

Customer Takeaway: REX will face increased competition from Marcellus and as a result seek to deliver more gas to the Midwest Chicago market in competition with Canadian gas

Data : Kinder Morgan & Bentek

This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes relating to Constellation NewEnergy – Gas Division, LLC’s (“CNEG”) business as a physical energy provider. CNEG does not provide and is not providing advice regarding the value or advisability trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§1-25, et. seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would cause CNEG or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA.

REX Pipeline: Wyoming - Clarington, OH


Supply & Demand

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Long-Term Fundamental Drivers


EPA’s Regulations Continue Squeezing Coal

Data Source: EIA & US Energy Information Administration, Econoday

Customer Takeaway: Changing emission standards focused on coal power generation should drive long term growth for NG capacity

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EPA Proposal and Standards continue to push the powerindustry towards Natural Gas Plants1. CSAPR Rule to mitigate sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide will be reviewed by

the DC Circuit Court this month and we should have a ruling over the summer

2. Mercury limits set in December of 2011 established new tough limits on all existing and futures plants

3. First-ever carbon pollution standard limits future power plants a limit of 1,000 pounds of Carbon per megawatt hour

CEO of the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity Steve Miller stated – “EPAregulation are responsible for the announced closure of more than 140 electricitygenerating units in 19 states”


New Generation Assets Majority Natural Gas

Source: EIA, CNE

Customer Takeaway: High concentration of new gas capacity should increase long term demand for NG as power input fuel

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1. EIA estimates 14.7 GW of new gas capacity in 2012 and 20132. Apx 42% of new builds in next two years are expected to be gas-fired generation3. New gas fired plant will have lowest build cost of all technologies


Changing Climate Fueling Generation

Source: EIA, CNE

Customer Takeaway: Cheap and abundant gas, along with future EPA restrictions to curb emissions, will likely cause a shift between coal-fired and gas-fired generation in PJM

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• Announced coal retirements total 16 GW in PJM from 2012-2016, but combined cycle additions will help offset decline to meet demand


Long-Term NG Demand Changes

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Source: DOE, EIA, FERC

- Only 2 of 54 Japanese reactors operating- Y-Y Japan LNG Dec’11 imports +40%

EIA Conclusions: The introduction of natural gas exports will lead to increased natural gas and electricity prices under all EIA modeled scenarios

- Potential 13.73 Bcf/d ramping up in 2015- EIA report, possible 18% additional NG demand


Technical Analysis & Pricing Trends

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Technical Drivers


NYMEX Forward Pricing (Cal’13 – Cal’15)

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NYMEX Cal'13 Cal'14 Cal'15Current Price $3.30 $3.76 $4.02

5-Year Avg $6.62 $6.77 $6.93Curr vs. Avg -50% -44% -42%

Max $10.87 $11.09 $11.33Curr vs. Max -70% -66% -65%

Min $3.30 $3.76 $4.02Curr vs. Min 0% 0% 0%


Price Change of NYMEX NG

Source: NYMEX, CNE

Customer Takeaway: Weak winter demand with growing supply had resulted in shift downward of entire NYMEX curve with more pressure on front years

• Y-Y changes in NYMEX NG are off between 23-47%• Majority of decline has come since beginning of Winter ‘11/’12• Back of curve has stayed more firm has near term supplies increase and winter demand wanes


NYMEX Forward Gas Curves (2012-2016)

Source: NYMEX, CNE

Customer Takeaway: Forward curve has experienced a steady progression downward due to weak demand (recession) and record production (horizontal drilling)

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

DATE GAS

May-12 1.92$ Jun-12 2.00$ Jul-12 2.12$

Aug-12 2.19$ Sep-12 2.23$ Oct-12 2.32$ Nov-12 2.58$ Dec-12 2.93$ Jan-13 3.09$ Feb-13 3.10$ Mar-13 3.08$ Apr-13 3.06$

May-13 3.11$ Jun-13 3.16$ Jul-13 3.22$

Aug-13 3.24$ Sep-13 3.24$ Oct-13 3.28$


Supply Impact on Natural Gas

Customer Takeaway: Growth in production coupled with a lack in demand has resulted in gas prices currently being at 10-year lows

Source: NYMEX, CNE

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1. Growth in supply since 2006 (+25%) 2. Decline in demand as result of recession3. Prices decline since 2008 (-79%)4. EIA forecast 2013 spot price +36% y-y

Current Price 3.38$ Since 11/1/11 -29%

Last Year -37%Vs. 5-Yr Avg -41%


EPC Gas Procurement Suggestions

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Contact Information

• Bill Sticka, Director Technical Sales / Market Strategy

• Commodities Management Group (CMG); Constellation Energy

• Email: [email protected]

• Telephone 410.468.3476

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources which Constellation NewEnergy (“CNE”) believes to be reliable. We do not represent or warrant as to its accuracy or completeness. All representations and estimates included in this presentation constitute CNE's judgment as of the date of the presentation and may be subject to change without notice. This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes. CNE does not provide is not providing advice regarding the value or advisability of trading in “commodity interests” as defined in the Commodity Exchange Act, 7 U.S.C. §§ 1-25, et seq., as amended (the “CEA”), including futures contracts, swaps or any other activity which would cause CNE or any of its affiliates to be considered a commodity trading advisor under the CEA. CNE shall not be responsible for any reliance upon any information, opinions, or statements contained herein or for any omission or error of fact. This document shall not be reproduced (in whole or in part) to any other person without the prior written approval of CNE. Copyright 2012

© 2012. Constellation Energy Group, Inc. The materials provided and any offerings described herein are those of Constellation NewEnergy, Inc., a subsidiary of Constellation Energy Group, Inc. Brand names and product names are trademarks or service marks of their respective holders. All rights reserved. Errors and omissions excepted.

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April 23, 2012 SW Educational Purchasing Council Commodities Management Group (CMG) 1.

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