April 2016 Monthly Update update for investors...said in its latest European Economic Forecast...

April 2016

Monthly Update

Politics On the early parliamentary elections in Serbia the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS)-led list won the highest number of votes. The

SNS-led list secured 48.25 percent, which means that the SNS-led list won 131 seats in the National Parliament. Elections resulted in

a big support to continue with implementing ongoing reforms.

The U.S. Department of State issued statement after elections that the United States will work together with the Serbian government to

further strengthening the relationship between the two countries.

German Ambassador to Serbia Axel Dittmann said that Berlin supports Serbia on its reform path and seeks the opening of rule of law

chapters 23 and 24 of EU accession talks in the first half of 2016.

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic received Chinese Ambassador Li Manchang, placing a special emphasis on the steel mill

Zelezara Smederevo and the Chinese government's support for implementing the project of high strategic importance for Serbia.

Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic, was on a three-day visit to Indonesia and met in Jakarta with Indonesian President, other high

officials and representatives of business sector.

Fiscal Sector

In March 2016, public debt of the Republic of Serbia changed from RSD 3,069.8bn (EUR 24.9bn) at the end of February 2016, to

RSD 3,004.4bn (EUR 24.4bn) at the end of March 2016. Central Government public debt to GDP (ESA 2010 methodology) ratio was

at the level of 72.0% at the end of March 2016. The major share of public debt is still in foreign currency out of which in EUR is

40.9%, USD 32.2%, RSD 21.9%, SDR 3.8%, CHF 0.6% and other 0.6% (GBP, JPY, DKK, SEC, NOK). In the first three months of

2016, Public Debt Administration of the Republic of Serbia managed to meet its obligations which amounted to RSD 196.6bn (EUR

1.6bn), out of which principal payments amounted to RSD 151.4bn (EUR 1.2bn), while interest and other costs were RSD 45.2bn

(EUR 368mln). Vast majority of items repaid in the first three months of 2016, belong to government securities issued on domestic

market RSD 135.9bn (EUR 1.1bn) out of which principal payments were RSD 110.7bn1 (EUR 900mln) and interest payments were

RSD 25.2bn2 (EUR 205mln). Obligations in respect of foreign creditors were repaid in amount of RSD 30.9bn (EUR 251mln), out of

which principal RSD 13.2bn (EUR 108mln). Payments in respect of guarantees issued by the Government were RSD 12.5bn (EUR

102mln) out of which principal RSD 10.4bn (EUR 85mln), while interest were RSD 2.1bn (EUR 17mln). In the first three months

2016, PDA received RSD 136.5bn (EUR 1.1bn) from domestic market out of which government securities issued in domestic

currency amounted to RSD 83.2bn (EUR 677mln) while receiving from EUR denominated government securities was RSD 53.3bn

(EUR 434mln). Total receiving in the first three months of 2016, amounted to RSD 153.7bn (EUR 1.25bn).

Serbia registered a general government deficit of RSD 16 billion in the first quarter of 2016, which is a deficit significantly lower than

ceiling agreed with the International Monetary Fund for Q1 2016.

Conclusions of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group held in Washington, D.C. were

good for Serbia, whose fiscal results at the end of 2015 and in the first quarter of 2016 were positively assessed, Finance Minister

Dusan Vujovic said

Economy Serbia’s GDP growth is forecast to accelerate, supported by robust investment and export performance, the European Commission has

said in its latest European Economic Forecast report, raising the projection of the country’s GDP expansion in 2016 from the

previously forecast 1.6% to 2.0%.

Serbia’s foreign trade deficit narrowed 20.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016, while Serbia’s industrial production in the first

quarter of 2016 rose 10.5% year-on-year.

World Bank Country Director for the Western Balkans Ellen Goldstein has said that the lender could release between USD 200

million and USD 300 million earmarked for Serbia once the election process is completed, provided that commitment to reforms

remains strong.

Serbia's Ministry of Economy extended the deadline for receiving letters of intent to buy a 25 percent stake in state-run drugmaker

Galenika, the biggest pharmaceutical company in Serbia.

Foreign Direct Investments Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic opened a factory of Turkish parts supplier Teklas Kaucuk in Vladicin Han. The investment

will be completed by 2018, with 400 jobs created in the first quarter of 2016 and 1,200 in total.

MK-Fintel Wind, a joint venture between Italy’s Fintel Energia Group and Serbian agribusiness-to-tourism company MK Group, has

started building a wind farm near Vrsac in Vojvodina under a EUR 10 million investment.

Mobile operator Telenor Serbia, part of Norway’s Telenor Group, will invest more than EUR 40 million in the development of its 4G

network in 2016.

A groundbreaking ceremony was held in the Vojvodina town of Indjija for a new production facility of IGB Automotive Comp,

the Serbian subsidiary of Germany-based automotive seat heater and sensor manufacturer I.G. Bauerhin.

Hong Kong-based motion subsystems and motion components producer Johnson Electric unveiled a new facility in Nis, in what

marked the start of a second phase of works on its plant in Nis, which is planned to cost EUR 50 million

Construction is under way on Belgrade Plaza, a 32,000-square meter gross leasable area shopping and entertainment center developed

by the Netherlands-based property developer Plaza Centers, under an investment of around EUR 80 million.

1 Repayments based on Frozen Foreign Currency Bonds are not included in this amount

2 The difference between nominal value and discounted value is included in this amount

April 2016

Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia; National Bank of Serbia; Bloomberg; Ministry of Finance and Economy * Estimated value; **According to

NBS methodology Foreign Debt consist of Public and Private sector debt; *** According to methodological concept of IMF and EU “BPM6” applicable from April

2014; Ɨ General Government;

Macroeconomic Data Real GDP growth %

Industrial

production

Mar16/ Mar15

in %

CPI Current acc.

Balance***

Government bonds on international

market YTM as of 31st March Currency units/USD

Currency

units/EUR

2013 2014 2015* Mar'16/

Feb’16

in %

Mar’16/

Mar’15

in %

Feb’16 last12

months

mlnEUR

% of

GDP

Serbia

2017

Serbia

2018

Serbia

2020

Serbia

2021

31 Mar

2016

31 Mar

2015

31 Mar

2016

31 Mar

2015

2.6 -1.8 0.7 8.8 -0.1 0.6 -1,424.7 -4.2 3.176% 3.981% 4.391% 4.726% 108.6001 111.4240 122.9245 120.2153

* Estimated value

• According to data of the Serbian Statistical Office, consumer prices fell by 0.1% in March. The negative monthly

inflation rate is attributable to lower vegetable prices, as well as to the seasonal decline in prices of travel

packages. At the same time, petroleum product prices picked up and after quite a while provided a positive

contribution to inflation. Y-o-y inflation declined from the previous month, amounting to 0.6%. Under the NBS

projection, as of mid-2016 y-o-y inflation will begin to rise moder ately and return within the target tolerance band

late this or early next year. Uncertainties surrounding the projection relate primarily to future developments in the

global commodity and financial markets, the effects of the oncoming agricultural season, and inflation movements

in the international environment.

• The overall external trade in the Republic of Serbia for the period January - Marchy 2016 amounted to:

- USD 7811.9 million - which was an increase of 4.3% compared to the same period 2015;

- EUR 7061.0 million - which was an increase of 6.2% compared to the same period 2015.

The value of exports amounted to USD 3412.3 million, which was 9.2% increase when compared to the same period

last year, while the value of imports amounted to USD 4399.6 million, which was 0.7% increase relative to the

same period last year. Expressed in Euros, the value of exports amounted to EUR 3084.4 million, which was the

increase of 11.2%, compared to the same period last year. The value of imports amounted to EUR 3976.6 million,

which was 2.6% increase when compared to the same period last year. The deficit amounted to USD 987.2 million,

which was a decrease of 20.4% in relation to the same period last year. The deficit expressed in Euros amounted to

892.2 million, which was a decrease of 18.9% compared to the same period last year. The export - import

ratio equaled 77.6% and was higher if compared to the same period last year when it was 71.6%. Expressed in

EUR, value of exports was EUR 1175.2 million, presenting the increase of 8.3% relative to the same month last

year.Imports amounted to EUR 1540.6 million, being identical to the same month last year.

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

0.7%

1.9%

-3.8%

17.9%

77.3%

Real GDP growth for 2015 (%)

Average inflation rate 2015 (%)

*Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate Q4 2015

**Foreign Debt as of December

2015 (% GDP)

2015

1.8%

0.6%

-4.0%

17.9%

77.3%

*Real GDP growth for 2016 (%)

YoY inflation rate March (%)

Ɨ Budget deficit (% GDP)

Unemployment rate Q4 2015

**Foreign Debt as of December

2015 (% GDP)

2016

2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

% Belgrade OverNight Index Average

250.0

450.0

650.0

850.0

1,050.0

1,250.0

1,450.0

1,650.0Belgrade Stock Exchange Indices

Belex 15 index Belex line index

April 2016

Currency, Interest Rates and FDI

Key Policy Rates of National Bank of Serbia Current value Last change Date of last meeting Next board meeting

Key policy rate - 2w repo 4.25%

0.00% 07.04.2016 17.05.2016 Deposit facility interest rate 2.50%

Lending facility interest rate 6.00%

Source: National bank of Serbia

Source: National bank of Serbia

• NBS FX reserves amounted to EUR 9,500.9 mln at end -March, covering 238% of money supply (M1) and six

months’ worth of imports of goods and services. Net FX reserves (total reserves less banks’ FX required reserves

and drawings under the arrangement with the IMF concluded in 2009) totalled EUR 7,882.0 mln. The March

decline in total NBS reserves (EUR 349.9 mln) reflects mainly the payment of obligations to foreign cred itors and

the redemption of maturing euro -denominated RS securities (EUR 286.6 mln). In addition, outflows worth EUR

194.7 mln were recorded on account of NBS interventions in the interbank FX market, withdrawal of banks’ FX

required reserves, servicing of liabilities under frozen FX savings, and other grounds. Significant inflows into

NBS FX reserves (EUR 187.1 mln) came from the sale of euro -denominated RS securities in the domestic financial

market, disbursement of loans and grants. A substantial amount also flowed in through successful FX reserves

management last month, as a result of the payment of deposits for participation in the sale of Železara Smederevo

and other inflows (EUR 77.7 mln). IFEM trading volumes reached EUR 623.3 mln in March, down by E UR 52.7

mln from the month before. In Q1 2016, interbank trading amounted to EUR 1,984.9 mln. In March, the dinar

appreciated against the euro by 0.5% in nominal terms. The NBS intervened in the IFEM by selling EUR 175 mln

in order to ease excessive daily volatility of the exchange rate.

• The industrial production in the Republic of Serbia in March 2016, when compared to March 2015, increased by

8.8%, and in relation to 2015 average, it increased by 9.5%. Industrial production in the period January - March

2016 increased by 10.5% relative to the same period 2015.

23456789

101112

% National Bank of Serbia Interest Rates

Key policy rate - 2w repo Deposit facility interest rate

Lending facility interest rate

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

In RSD Exchange Rates

EUR/RSD USD/RSD

April 2016 In EUR million

Source: National bank of Serbia; *FDI value has been presented in compliance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International

Investment Position Manual, International Monetary Fund, 2009 (BPM6) from the end of 2013. Public Debt Report

Public Debt Stock and Structure as of 31st March 2016:

EUR USD RSD GDP%

Direct Liabilities (A)

Internal Debt 9,068,381,105 10,264,504,481 1,114,726,213,104 26.7%

External Debt 13,081,348,675 14,806,784,204 1,608,018,245,248 38.6%

Direct Liabilities in Total 22,149,729,780 25,071,288,685 2,722,744,458,352 65.3%

Indirect Liabilities (B)

Internal Debt 553,754,361 626,794,800 68,069,977,936 1.6%

External Debt 1,737,652,030 1,966,849,082 213,600,006,961 5.1%

Indirect Liabilities in Total 2,291,406,391 2,593,643,882 281,669,984,897 6.8%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt (C)

Internal Debt 287,077,407 324,943,041 35,288,846,693 0.8%

External Debt 123,039,180 139,268,101 15,124,529,673 0.4%

Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt in Total 410,116,587 464,211,141 50,413,376,366 1.2%

Central Government Public Debt (A+B) 24,441,136,171 27,664,932,567 3,004,414,443,249 72.0%

General Government Public Debt (A+B+C) 24,851,252,758 28,129,143,708 3,054,827,819,615 73.3%

In EUR million

Date Internal Debt External Debt Monthly Change of

Public Debt Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities Direct Liabilities Indirect Liabilities

30/04/2015 -26.2 -9.0 -125.6 -1.9 -162.8

31/05/2015 -121.4 -0.5 169.0 13.4 60.5

30/06/2015 -173.4 23.2 -148.6 -16.3 -315.1

31/07/2015 50.7 -12.5 225.9 -12.6 251.4

31/08/2015 -26.9 -13.9 -139.6 -9.0 -189.4

30/09/2015 248.1 -15.5 -1.1 -5.6 225.9

31/10/2015 125.6 -12.9 192.2 -42.0 262.9

30/11/2015 125.6 -12.9 194.1 -42.0 264.8

31/12/2015 318.1 -30.1 -155.9 -16.7 115.5

31/01/2016 -6.6 -13.5 38.0 -6.6 11.2

29/02/2016 65.1 -14.1 -2.9 -12.9 35.3

31/03/2016 -41.0 -26.2 -315.6 -32.5 -415.4

2,486 2,068 1,133 3,320

753

1,298 1,236

1,804 228

7.4% 6.7%

3.8%

9.9%

2.4%

3.8% 3.7%

5.5%

0.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Jan-Feb

2016

Foreign Direct Investment in Serbia in period 2008 - February 2016

FDI (net), EUR million FDI (net), %GDP

DYNAMICS OF PUBLIC DEBT

April 2016 In EUR million

Source: Public Debt Administration

INTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS EXTERNAL DEBT ANALYSIS



23,000

23,200

23,400

23,600

23,800

24,000

24,200

24,400

24,600

24,800

25,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000In

EU

R m

illi

on

Public Debt Stock and Structure

Internal debt - direct liabilities Internal debt - indirect liabilitiesExternal debt - direct liabilities External debt - indirect liabilitiesCentral Government Public Debt (right axis)

39.4%

37.5%

38.0%

38.5%

39.0%

39.5%

Internal public debt/total public debt ratio

60.6%

59.0%

59.5%

60.0%

60.5%

61.0%

61.5%

62.0%

62.5%External public debt/total public debt ratio

9,068

554

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

9,200

In E

UR

mil

lio

n

Internal Public Debt Structure

Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities

13,081

1,738

1,700

1,725

1,750

1,775

1,800

1,825

1,850

1,875

1,900

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

In E

UR

mil

liio

n

External Public Debt Structure

Direct liabilities Indirect liabilities

April 2016


Government Securities DOMESTIC MARKET OVERVIEW


EUROBOND OVERVIEW

55.5%

42.9%

1.6%

Internal Debt Currency Structure

as of 31 March 2016

RSD EUR USD

39.7%

52.1%

1.0% 6.2% 0.9%

External public debt currency structure

as of 31 March, 2016

EUR USD CHF SDR Other

2.75%

3.25% 4.01%

4.95%

5.95%

6.50%

10.75%

12.99%

2.5%

4.5%

6.5%

8.5%

10.5%

12.5%

14.5%

3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y

Last Primary Auction Accepted Rate

2.78%

3.54% 4.94%

7.22%

9.13%

10.60% 12.03%

12.99%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y

Average Accepted Rates at Primary Auction

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Price/Yield

Date Closing

price

YTM Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/03/16 112.07 4.726 -0.5% 1.5%

29/02/16 112.61 4.654 0.2% -1.4%

31/01/16 112.41 4.722 -1.0% 3.8%

31/12/15 113.49 4.547 -0.9% 3.3%

30/11/15 114.48 4.402 -0.2% 0.0%

31/10/15 114.67 4.400 2.0% -9.0%

30/09/15 112.44 4.834 -0.5% 1.6%

31/08/15 113.00 4.758 0.1% -1.1%

31/07/15 112.84 4.811 0.4% -2.2%

30/06/15 112.38 4.919 -2.5% 10.3%

31/05/15 115.22 4.460 -0.2% 0.1%

30/04/15 115.41 4.455 -0.1% -0.3%

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2021 - Tap

Issuer: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia

Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch)

Maturity: 28.09.2021

Coupon: 7.25% semi-annual

*Size: USD 2.0bn

**Re-offer yield: 6.625%

Re-offer price: 104.179

Spread to US Treasury Benchmark: 497.0 bps

Announcement date: 27.09.2012

Listing: London Stock Exchange

*Primary auction USD 1,0bn 21.09.2011.; Tap Issuance 27.09.2012. USD 1,0bn. **Tap Issuance re-offer yield.

April 2016

Republic of Serbia Eurobond 2017





Size: USD 750.0mln

Re-offer yield: 5.450%





Source: Bloomberg

4.00

4.40

4.80

5.20

5.60

6.00

6.40

6.80

7.20

7.60

8.00

96 $

98 $

100 $

102 $

104 $

106 $

108 $

110 $

112 $

114 $

116 $

118 $

120 $

In %

Price/YTM Graph - Serbia Eurobond 2021

Closing price YTM

170 bps

200 bps

230 bps

260 bps

290 bps

320 bps

350 bps

380 bps

410 bps

440 bps

470 bps

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

In %

YTM US Dollar Interest Rate Swap - 5Y

Spread to benchmark Spread to US Dollar Interest swap rate


Date Closing price YTM Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/03/16 103.27 3.176 -0.5% 7.7%

29/02/16 103.83 2.949 0.1% -5.2%

31/01/16 103.72 3.110 -0.1% -1.7%

31/12/15 103.77 3.164 -0.4% 4.8%

30/11/15 104.23 3.019 -0.2% 1.5%

31/10/15 104.49 2.973 0.7% -12.8%

30/09/15 103.76 3.408 -0.2% 0.3%

31/08/15 103.92 3.397 0.1% -3.4%

31/07/15 103.79 3.515 0.1% -3.2%

30/06/15 103.66 3.631 -0.3% 2.0%

31/05/15 103.96 3.561 0.3% -5.1%

30/04/15 103.60 3.753 -0.4% 3.2%

April 2016

Source: Bloomberg


Date Closing price

YTM Monthly price change %

Monthly yield change %

31/03/16 101.71 4.391 -0.5% 2.9%

29/02/16 102.21 4.267 0.0% -0.3%

31/01/16 102.20 4.280 -0.4% 2.7%

31/12/15 102.65 4.169 -0.6% 3.6%

30/11/15 103.27 4.026 -0.2% 0.8%

31/10/15 103.46 3.993 2.0% -11.5%

30/09/15 101.42 4.513 0.0% -0.1%

31/08/15 101.43 4.518 0.1% -0.6%

31/07/15 101.34 4.545 0.0% -0.3%

30/06/15 101.30 4.560 -1.7% 9.8%

31/05/15 103.07 4.153 0.1% -1.0%

30/04/15 102.92 4.196 -0.1% 0.1%

2.60

2.90

3.20

3.50

3.80

4.10

4.40

4.70

5.00

5.30

5.60

5.90

6.20

95.0 $

96.0 $

97.0 $

98.0 $

99.0 $

100.0 $

101.0 $

102.0 $

103.0 $

104.0 $

105.0 $

106.0 $

107.0 $

108.0 $

In %


Closing price YTM

180 bps

200 bps

220 bps

240 bps

260 bps

280 bps

300 bps

320 bps

340 bps

360 bps

380 bps

400 bps

420 bps

440 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

In %








Size: USD 1.5bn






April 2016

Source: Bloomberg


Date Closing

price

YTM Monthly price

change %

Monthly yield

change %

31/03/16 104.74 3.981 -0.3% 1.8%

29/02/16 105.08 3.909 0.1% -2.1%

31/01/16 104.99 3.993 -0.4% 2.9%

31/12/15 105.44 3.879 -0.8% 6.0%

30/11/15 106.25 3.660 -0.1% -0.4%

31/10/15 106.35 3.675 1.2% -11.1%

30/09/15 105.11 4.135 -0.5% 3.1%

31/08/15 105.62 4.012 0.1% -2.1%

31/07/15 105.48 4.096 -0.1% -0.6%

30/06/15 105.54 4.120 -0.7% 4.7%

31/05/15 106.30 3.934 0.3% -3.2%

30/04/15 105.98 4.063 -0.2% 0.6%

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

89.0 $

91.0 $

93.0 $

95.0 $

97.0 $

99.0 $

101.0 $

103.0 $

105.0 $

107.0 $

In %


Closing price YTM

180 bps

200 bps

220 bps

240 bps

260 bps

280 bps

300 bps

320 bps

340 bps

360 bps

380 bps

400 bps

420 bps

440 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5In

%





Ratings: BB- (S&P); BB- (Fitch); B1(Moody’s)


Coupon: 5.875 % semi-annual

Size: USD 1.0bn






April 2016

Spread to Benchmark Spread to US Dollar Swap Interest rate

Source: Bloomberg

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

96.0 $

98.0 $

100.0 $

102.0 $

104.0 $

106.0 $

108.0 $

110.0 $

In %


Closing price YTM

180 bps

200 bps

220 bps

240 bps

260 bps

280 bps

300 bps

320 bps

340 bps

360 bps

380 bps

400 bps

420 bps

440 bps

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

In %


Amortizing bond - London Club 2024

Date Closing price YTM Monthly price change % Monthly yield change %

10/1/2004 11/1/2024 1,080,000,000 972,000,190 6.75%

Closing price and YTM

Date Closing price YTM Monthly price change % Monthly yield change %

31/03/16 103.41 6.230 -0.5% 1.1%

29/02/16 103.90 6.161 1.7% -4.0%

31/01/16 102.19 6.417 0.0% 0.0%

31/12/15 102.23 6.414 -0.2% 0.3%

30/11/15 102.39 6.394 0.2% -0.4%

31/10/15 102.21 6.422 0.1% -0.4%

30/09/15 102.06 6.446 0.3% -0.7%

31/08/15 101.75 6.492 0.0% 0.0%

31/07/15 101.78 6.489 -0.2% 0.5%

30/06/15 102.01 6.459 -0.2% 0.5%

31/05/15 102.22 6.430 0.1% -0.3%

30/04/15 102.12 6.448 -0.1% 0.3%

April 2016


Source: Bloomberg

6.00

6.10

6.20

6.30

6.40

6.50

6.60

6.70

6.80

6.90

7.00

7.10

7.20

94.0 $

95.0 $

96.0 $

97.0 $

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In %

Price/YTM Graph Amortizing Bond - Serbia London Club 2024

Closing price YTM

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In %


April 2016 Monthly Update update for investors...said in its latest European Economic Forecast...

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Transcript of April 2016 Monthly Update update for investors...said in its latest European Economic Forecast...