April 18 Aryaduta Presentation

7/30/2019 April 18 Aryaduta Presentation

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South Sulawesi, Indonesia ProvincialOpinion Poll

January 12, 2012 - February 1, 2012

International Republican Institute

Lembaga Survei Indonesia

with funding from the

United States Agency for International Development

1


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IRI, Lembaga Survei IndonesiaSouth Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,

January 20122

Methodology This survey was designed, analyzed and fielded by Lembaga Survei Indonesia under the supervision of

Fallon Research and Communications on behalf of the International Republican Institute.

The provincial representative survey was carried out from January 12-February 1, 2012. A sample of720 South Sulawesi participants were interviewed face-to-face in their homes.

Multi-stage sampling was used to select villages from South Sulawesis 24 districts to be included

in the sample.

The Kish grid method was used to randomize the selection within households among eligiblerespondents. The households were selected using the random route method.

The sample was distributed at the district level, in rural and urban areas, in 24 districts of South

Sulawesi. The response rate was 76 percent.

The margin of error for the survey does not exceed +/- 3.7 percent with a confidence level of 95percent.

Fifty-two interviewers worked on the study, on average completing 10 interviews per PSU. The

interviews were administered using local dialects and conducted by interviewers who are native speakers. The survey questions were asked in a different order than the order in which they are presented here.

Due to rounding, charts may not add up to 100 percent.


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January 20123

Survey DemographicsMale 50% Female 50%

Urban 31% Rural 69%

Marital StatusMarried 87%Single 9%

Widow/Widower 4%

EducationLess than or equal to primary 50%Junior high or equivalent 18%Senior high or equivalent 24%

College/University 9%

Age

Younger than 24 7%24 to 34 24%

35 to 44 30%45 to 54 18%55+ 21%

Monthly Household Income

Up to 400,000 rupiah 38%400,000 to 999,999 rupiah 27%1,000,000+ rupiah 35%

Religion

Islam 90%Christian 9%Other 2%


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January 20124

District of Respondents


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SAMPLE VALIDATION

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January 20127

Demography of the Respondents


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SOCIAL INDICATORS INDEX

8


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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012

9

Generally speaking, would you say that things in this

province are headed in the right direction or the wrongdirection?

72

10

1

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Right direction Wrong direction No response Don't know


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10

Why do you think that things in your province are headingin the right direction? (Closed-ended)

Respondents who think things are headed in the right direction, N=516

5

4

11

23

26

33

0 10 20 30 40

No response/Don't know

Other

Economic conditions are good

The general environment is good or improving

There is peace and security

Government governs well/Assisting people


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11

Why do you think that things in your province are headingin the wrong direction?

Respondents who think things are headed in the wrong direction, N=70

2

13

4

11

12

16

17

25

0 5 10 15 20 25 30


Other

There is instability

Low standard of living

Limited job opportunities

Corruption

Economic conditions are not good

The government is not governing well


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12

Compared to a year ago, has your personal financial

situation improved, stayed the same or worsened?

35

44

20

1

Improved Stayed the same Worsened No response/Don'tknow

05

10

15

2025

30

35

40

45

50


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13

Thinking about next year, do you expect the economic

situation in your household is going to get better, stay thesame or get worse?

Better46%

Stay the same35%

Worse6%

No response/Don'tknow13%


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ELECTION INDEX

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15

Did you vote in the April 2009 provincial parliamentary

elections?

Yes90%

No9%

No response/Don't

know1%


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16

Which one of the following statements most determines forwhom you vote?

14

2

11

20

22

31

0 10 20 30 40

Don't know

No response

Other

I usually vote for the same candidate or his localpolitical group

I usually vote for the same political party

I usually don't vote for the same political party orpolitical group and my vote depends upon various

other factors

I usually don't vote for the same political partyor political group and my vote depends upon

various other factors

I usually vote for the same candidate or hislocal political group


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17

People give different reasons for why they vote for one partyrather than another. Which of the following describes your

reason for voting for a particular party instead of another party?

10

1

6

8

16

17

21

21

0 5 10 15 20 25

Don't know

No response

Other

The party had the best candidate in my constituency

The party has the best policies

The party provides assistance

The party's candidate has been working in myconstituency

The party has the best leader

The party's candidate has been working in my

constituency


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18

Which of the following criteria or characteristics are the

most important to you when selecting a legislative

candidate to vote for ? (First priority)Responses two percent and greater

4

2

2

3

4

5

5

12

12

46

0 10 20 30 40 50


Charisma

Proposed policies

Intelligence

Experience as a leader

The support he/she has from the public

Opposed to corruption

Religious

Close to people

Honesty


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19

I am going to ask for your level of agreement or disagreementwith the following statement. I would be more likely to vote for

a political party which includes more young people in theirpolitical party.

5 59 23 1 12

0 20 40 60 80 100

Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree No response/Don't know

64% Agree24% Disagree


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20

I am going to ask for your level of agreement or disagreement

with the following statement. I would be more likely to vote for apolitical party that nominates more women legislative candidates.

3 45 38 3 12

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree No response/Don't know

48% Agree 41% Disagree


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21

If there are two candidates campaigning for the same elected office

with exactly the same qualifications, but one is a man and the otheris a woman, which one would you be more likely to vote for?

9

49

39

4

Prefer to vote for awoman

Prefer to vote for aman

Gender makes nodifference to me

No response/Don'tknow

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


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22

If provincial parliamentary elections were held next week,

how likely is it that you will vote?

61

35

1 23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not vote at all No response/Don'tknow


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Undecided Voter Profile

35% out of 720 respondents

Analysis shows that voters who do not know which party theysupport to be:

Female

Even split in rural/urban residents

Less than or equal to primary education level From households with gross monthly income less than 400,000 rupiah

Even spilt among age groups

23


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ISSUES AND ATTITUDES INDEX

24


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25

Which one of the following issues is of greatest concernto you?

Only displaying responses of two percent and greater

8

2

2

2

2

4

6

7

8

8

11

14

26

0 5 10 15 20 25 30


Problems of water supply

Increase in level of crime

Low quality and high prices of health care

Solution to housing problems

Quality and accessibility of education

Corruption

Unemployment and threat of losing job

Not a sufficient level of support to small business

Low standard of living and low income

Insufficent support to farmers

Lack of infrastructure (electricity, roads, etc.)

Inflation and price increases


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26

On the issue most important to you, do you feel that the

provincial government is capable of solving the problemwithin the next two years ?

Yes45%

No24%



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27

If you could improve one service or policy in your area,what would it be? (Open-ended)Only displaying responses of two percent and greater

9

2

2

2

3

3

3

4

5

8

9

41

0 10 20 30 40 50


Economy

Flooding

Housing

Security

Decrease price of basic needs

Employment

Environment and sanitation

Availabilty of clean water

Agriculture (fertilizer, irrigation)

Water drainage

Infrastructure (roads, electricity, bridges)


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28

In your opinion, how prevalent is corruption within the

government in your province?

17 23 15 9 3 34

0 20 40 60 80 100

Very prevalent Somewhat prevalent Not very prevalent

Not prevalent at all No response Don't know


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IRI, Lembaga Survei Indonesia South Sulawesi Provincial Public Opinion Survey,January 2012 29

Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the provincial

governments efforts to fight corruption?

2 24 38 9 3 25

0 20 40 60 80 100

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat unsatisfied

Very unsatisfied No response Don't know

26% Satisfied 47% Unsatisfied


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In your opinion, what is the most corrupt institution in

the province? (Open-ended)Responses two percent and greater

70

2

2

2

4

7

7

0 20 40 60 80


Ministry of Public Works

Ministry of Education and Culture

Tax office

Legal institutions

Local government

Parliament/Local parliament


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Turning to a different topic, in the past year has any

legislator or political party member contacted you aboutany issue of importance to you?

Yes7%

No91%



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Has your representative in the DPRD ever tried to contactyou?

3 5 6

75 78

94

June-08 January-09 July-09

Yes No

In the future should a legislator or political party member


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In the future, should a legislator or political party member

need to contact you, what is the most convenient way for

you to be contacted?Responses two percent and greater

10

2

2

2

3

6

7

8

9

40

54

0 10 20 30 40 50 60


Radio program

Letter

SMS

Media (e.g. newspaper)

In person/Travel to my office

Through a political party event

Through a non-governmental organization

Telephone

Through a community/Public event

In person/Travel to my house


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Have you ever given money to a political party?

3

96

2

Yes No No response/Don't know0

20

40

60

80

100

120


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If no, why have you not given money to a political party?Respondents indicating that they have not given money to a political party, N=699

Responses two percent and greater

5

3

6

6

7

8

9

40

54

0 10 20 30 40 50 60


Political parties have too much money

It is not appropriate to give money to politicsalparties

The political party's funding is its business

Not a political party member

Not interested in politcs

Never been asked, but if asked I will contribute

Have other necessities

No funds available to give

It is not appropriate to give money to politicalparties


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In your opinion, are people in your province afraid to

openly express their political views or not?

9 17 37 18 20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid No response/Don't know

What is your opinion about the trend of religious


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What is your opinion about the trend of religious

extremism in your province compared to two years ago?

Has it increased, stayed more or less the same ordecreased?

14 32 24 30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Increased More or less the same Decreased No response/Don't know

Ho concerned if at all are o abo t the rise of


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How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise ofreligious extremism in your province these days?

Respondents having the opinion that the trend of religious extremism in the province hasincreased, N=99

27 34 27 5 7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned No response/Don't know


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INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS

39


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Now I am going to read various problems, and please rate

the provincial governments performance on each of theissues listed below.

23

31

32

35

41

5152

57

59

61

63

67

71

72

73

23

47

32

26

20

2316

21

15

14

15

15

11

15

15

29

25

27

30

17

1619

12

18

18

17

3

13

6

7

25

6

10

9

23

1013

9

8

7

6

15

4

7

5

0 20 40 60 80 100

Fighting corruption

Inflation control

Employment

Poverty reduction

Housing

Fighting crimeDevelopment of roads and highways

Preserving the environment

Water availability

Water quality

Construction of public facilities schools, bridges, etc.

Gender/Religious/Race/Ethnicity-based discrimination

Availability of electricity

Improving the educational system

Health care

Good Fair Poor No response/Don't know

I ld lik k b i i h f


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I would like to ask you about your impressions on the performanceof the following institutions. How would you rate the performance

of each of the following institutions: very good, good, fair, poor orvery poor?

25

29

34

37

40

42

43

55

58

60

67

81

18

47

22

24

19

22

25

22

20

17

16

11

2

13

10

8

3

6

9

13

7

3

3

1

54

29

34

31

39

31

22

10

15

20

13

8

0 20 40 60 80 100

International non-governmental organizations

Political parties

Courts

Provincial parliament

Domestic non-governmental organizations

Local election commission

Local parliament

Police

Civil service employees

Media

Governor

Religious leaders

Good Fair Poor No response/Don't know


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January 2012 42

Are you satisfied or unsatisfied with the quality of work

provided by the provincial legislature?

2 45 27 3 2 22

0 20 40 60 80 100




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January 2012 43


provided by the district head in your city/village?

7 62 24 11 6

0 20 40 60 80 100




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January 2012 44


provided by the governor of your province?

6 64 18 11 11

0 20 40 60 80 100




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MEDIA INDEX

45

What are the main sources of political information for


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January 2012 46

you?

Only displaying responses of one percent and greater

21

1

1

1

2

3

3

6

61

0 20 40 60 80


Internet

Religious leader

Radio

Village news board

Village head

Newspapers

Relatives, friends

TV

How do you rate the credibility of each of these


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January 2012 47

y y

information sources on a scale of one to five, where one

means very unreliable and five means very credible?Responses of three or higher only

8482

8176

7161

55

41

3331

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

O h f d h I ?


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January 2012 48

On average, how often do you use the Internet?

8

76

5

1

2

4

4

0 20 40 60 80


Never

Less often

Once a month

Once a week

A few times per week

Everyday

What do you use the Internet for mostly?


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January 2012 49

What do you use the Internet for mostly?Respondents indicating that they use the Internet at least once a month, N=117

1

1

2

2

2

4

6

11

12

14

21

24

30

0 10 20 30 40


Looking for work

Learning

Shopping

Watch videos

Blog

Research

Listen to music

Games

Facebook

Email

Work

Chat

Where do you most regularly access the Internet?


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January 2012 50

Where do you most regularly access the Internet?Respondents indicating that they use the Internet at least once a month, N=117

4

2

2

8

27

28

31

0 10 20 30 40


School

Relatives' or friends' home

Work

Cell phone or mobile connection

Home

Internet caf


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South Sulawesi, Indonesia ProvincialOpinion PollJanuary 12, 2012 - February 1, 2012

International Republican Institute

Lembaga Survei Indonesia

with funding from the

United States Agency for International Development

51

April 18 Aryaduta Presentation

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