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Israel's only two options

Caution: Storm Approaching

July 15, 2011, 6:57 AM

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It was seven months a o that Mohammed Bouazizi, a ve etable peddler in Tunisia

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financing needs o f the region's oil im porters is projected to exceed $160 billion

during 2011-13."

Goldm an no ted, "That's alm ost three years' worth of Egypt's total annual imports as

of 2010."

Since Mubarak was overthrown in February, Egypt's foreign currency reserves have

plummeted from $36 bn to $25- 28bn. Last mo nth Tantawi rejected an IMF loan o ffer

of $3bn. claiming he would not accept any conditions on the loans. Instead heaccepted $4bn in loans from Saudi Arabia and another $2.34bn from the Gulf States.

And still, Egypt's foreign currency reserves are being washed away. As Goldman

explained, the problem is capital flight. Due in no small part to the protesters in Tahrir

Square calling for the arrest of all those who did business with the former regime,

Egypt's wealthy and foreign investors are taking their money out of the country.

At the Arab Banking Summit in Rome last month, Jordan's Finance Minister

Mohamm ed Abu Hammo ur warned, "There is capital flight and $500 million a week

are leaving the Arab world."

According to Go ldman, "Although Ham mo ur did no t mention countries in his talk...

most of the capital flight is coming from Egypt, and at an annual rate roughly equal

to Egypt's remaining reserves."

What this m eans is that in a few sho rt months , Egypt will be unable to pay for its

imports. And consequently, it will be unable to feed its people.

EGYPT IS far from alone. Take Syria. There too , capital is fleeing the coun try as the

government rushes to quell the mass anti-regime protests.

Just as Egyptian and Tunisian protesters hoped that a new regime would bring them

mo re freedom, so the mass protests sweeping Syria owe in part to po litics. But like

the situation in Egypt and Tunisia, Syria's econo mic woes are dictating much o f

what is happening on the ground and will continue to do so for the foreseeable

future.

Last mo nth Syrian President Bashar Assad gave a speech warning of "weakness or

collapse of the Syrian economy." As a report last month by Reuters explained, the

i i i ' h i l li h n h l i n h

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n r

i i i i l li lu i

Syrian pound by eight percent.

For the past decade, Assad has been trying to liberalize the Syrian economy. He

enacted so me free market reforms, opened a stock exchange and attempted to draw

foreign inves tment to the country. While largely unsuccess ful in alleviating Syria's

mass ive poverty, these reforms did enable the country a modest gro wth rate o f

around 2.5% per year.

In response to the mas s protests threatening his regime, Assad has effectively

ended his experiment with the free market. He fired his government minister in

charge of the econom ic reforms and put all the projects o n ho ld. Instead, according

to a repo rt this week in Syria Today, the government has steeply increased public

sector wages and offered 100 ,000 temporary workers full-time contracts. The Syrian

government also announced a 25% cut in the price of diesel fuel at a cos t for the

government of $527 m illion per year.

Boasting foreign currency reserves of $18bn, the Syrian regime announced it would

be using these reserves to pay fo r the increased governmental outlays. But as

Reuters reported, the government has been forced to spend $70 -8 0 million a weekto buck up the local currency. So between pro tecting the Syrian pound and paying for

po litical loyalty, the Assad regim e is quickly drying up Syria's treasury.

In the event the regime is overthrown, a successor regime will face the sure

prospect of econo mic collapse much as the Egyptian regime do es. And in the event

that Assad remains in power, he will continue to reap the economic whirlwind of

what he has so wn in the form o f political instability and violence.

What this means is that we can expect continued political turmoil in both countries

as they are consumed by debt and tens of millions of people face the prospect of

starvation. This political turmoil can be expected to give rise to dangerous ifunknowable military developments.

POOR ARAB nations like Egypt and Syria are far from the on ly ones facing

economic disaster. The $3bn loan the IMF offered Egypt may be among the last

loans of that magnitude the IMF is able to offer because quite simply, European

loaners are themselves staring into the economic abyss.

Greece's debt crisis is no t a local problem . It now appears increasingly likely that

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u

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the EU is going to have to accept Greece defaulting on at least part of its debt. And

the ramifications o f Greek default on the European and US banking systems are

largely unknowable. This is the case because as Megan McArdle at The Atlantic

wrote this week, the amount of Greek debt held by European and US banks is

difficult to assess.

Worse s till, the banking crisis will only intensify in the wake of a Greek default. Debt

pressure on Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal which are all also on the brink of

defaulting on their debts will grow. Italy is Europe's fourth largest economy. Its debtis about the size of Germany's debt. If Italy goes into default, the implications for the

European and US banking systems - and their econo mies generally -- will be

devastating.

The current debt-ceiling negotiations between US President Barack Obama and the

Republican Congress ional leadership have m ade it apparent that Obama is

ideolo gically com mitted to increasing go vernment spending and taxes in the face of

a weak economy. If Obama is reelected next year, the dire implications of four more

years of his econom ic policies for the US and global econom ies cannot be

overstated.

DUE TO the econom ic policies im plemented by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu

since his first tenure as prime minister in 1996 , in the face of this econo mic disaster,

Israel is likely to find itself in the unlikely position of standing along China and India

as amo ng the only stable, growing econo mies in the world. Israel's banking sector

is largely unexposed to European debt. Israel's gro ss external debt is 44 percent of

GDP. This co mpares well no t only to European debt levels o f well over 100 percent

of GDP but to the US debt level which stands at 98 percent of GDP.

Assuming the government does no t bend to populist pressure and take

econom ically hazardous steps like reducing the work week to four days, Israel's

econom y is likely to remain one o f the country's mos t valuable strategic assets.

Just as econo mic prosperity allowed Israel to absorb the cost o f the Second

Lebanon War with barely a hiccup, so Israel's continued econom ic growth will play a

key role in protecting it from the economically induced political upheavals likely to

ensue throughout m uch of the Arab world and Europe.

Aside from remaining econom ically respons ible, as Israel approaches the coming

storms it is important for it to act with utmost caution politically. It must adopt

policies that provide it with the mos t maneuver roo m and the greatest deterrent

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force.

First and foremo st, this m eans that it is imperative that Israel no t comm it itself to

any agreem ents with any Arab regime. In 1977 the Cam p David Agreement with then

Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in which Israel su rrendered the strategically

invaluable Sinai fo r a peace treaty seem ed like a reaso nable gam ble. In 2011, a

sim ilar agreem ent with Assad or with the Palestinian Authority, (whose budget is

largely financed from internatio nal aid), would be the height of strategic insanity.

Beyond that, with the rising double specter of Egyptian economic collapse and the

rise o f the Muslim Bro therhoo d to po wer, Israel must prepare for the pros pect of

war with Egypt. Recently it was reported that IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen.

Benny Gantz has opted to s pread over several years Israel's military preparations

for a return to hostilities with Egypt. Gantz's decision reportedly owes to his desire

to avoid provoking Egypt with a rapid expansion of the IDF's order of battle.

Gantz's caution is understandable. But it is unacceptable. Given the escalating

threats emanating from Egypt - not the least of which is the expanding security

vacuum in the Sinai -- Israel mus t prepare for war no w.

So too , with the US's weak econo my, Obama's Muslim Brotherhoo d friendly foreign

policy, and Europe's history of responding to eco nom ic hardship with xenopho bia,

Israel's need to develop the means o f militarily defending itself from a cascade of

emerging threats becom es all the mo re apparent.

The econom ic storms may pass by Israel. But the po litical tempests they unleash

will reach us. To emerge safely from what is coming, Israel needs to hunker do wn

and prepare for the worst.

Originallypublishedin The Jerusalem Post.

Post ed on July 15, 2011 at 6:57 AM

Comments (12) |

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12 Comments

By Anonymous on July 15, 20 11 7:40 AM

I would never have known the story of Moham med Bouaz izi, and his confiscated

vegetable cart if you hadn't told me. Damn shame, Seems that things are the same the

world over. A guy wants to feed his fam ily, make a li fe, and a governm ent official takes

his pro perty, his dream, his m eans to that end, away. Because he m ust pay for

permissio n to live and pursue that thos e ends.

I pray that the official's end has found him but perhaps not so quickly.

By nao mir o n July 15, 2011 8:0 9 AM

Caroline, you have certainly presented mo st om inous news. All the signs have been

there for s om e time of the world slo wly imploding and all the violence and greed in the

Middle East only hastening the process. Israel is being challenged now bo th by her

pos ition as an "o asis o f peace" in the midst o f a storm and the fact that she will be one

of o nly a few countries s till able to feed her population amid massive s tarvation. It

stands to reason that we cannot sit back and wait for events to unfold, but must be in a

state of preparedness no w for the rough times ahead. We alone with Hashem's help

are responsible for o ur continued existence. Shabbat shalom and blessings.

By Marcel on July 15, 20 11 8:18 AM

Wrath is cruel, and anger is outrageous; but who is able to stand before envy?

Proverbs 27

As the global econo my o f ALL the nations who seek to carve up Israel continues to

meltdown and their misery and suffering grows deeper they will see Israel sitting

prosperous and blessed.

It's amazing to see the o nce great empire America collapse and decay the more

Washington attempts to carve up Israel and divide Jerusalem for a totally unnecessary

23rd Arab despo t state.

Who in their right mind can be an a thiest in this day ?

The enemies o f Israel will for the mo st part be blind and unable to co nnect that what

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i l ill li l

they have intended for Israel to their own down fall,but their ability to envy and be

jealous against prosperous and blessed Israel will only grow into uncontrolled

rage,blame and revenge.

Israel's close neighbors are experts in this field.

The curse they brought upon themselves by their hatred, violence and evil

desires,jealousy and the lying, blame game will o nly grow and we kno w where this all

leads.

It's evident that Israel's God has intensified the Genesis 12:3 curse level on Israel'sclose and distant neighbors and is em ptying their busy calendars,bank accounts and

dinner plates in order to gather them for their final appointment to cure their hate and

bloo dlust against Israel and the Jewish people for goo d.

'I will also gather all nations, and will bring them do wn into the valley of Jehos haphat,

and will plead with them there for my people and for my heritage Israel, whom they

have scattered among the nations, and parted my land.'

Joel 3

There is a bright future after the storms have pass ed as the threat against Israel will

end and there will be real peace when allah's armies and allah are no m ore.

Only then will Arab and Jew live in true peace.

No allah,no problem

In that day all the nations will have learned what Egypts Pharoah learned ,you can' t fight

Israel and win.

ByAnonymous on Jul y 15, 2011 10:14 AM

Throughout history, Islam has bo th survived and spread through war (read the

destruction and plunder of Israel) with the end objective of looting and booty. The

excuse (and end result) has always been to "spread Islam", but that was just the

excuse for war with the objective of plunder. This is the do cumented and practiced habit

of Islam itself as well documented in the Qur'an (especially sura 8 ), The Sunnah (the"Way" of the Prophet Muhammad) and the Hadiths (reports o f the actions o f

Muhammad).

A typical spokesman for Islam can be found on YouTube by searching that site for "

al-Huwayni gives so lution to Muslims financial problems"

It is also instructional to Goo gle the follo wing: islam bo oty

Even sites such as Wikipedia.org give an interesting history regarding Islamic slavery.

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On the site JihadWatch.org, read the paper linked in the uppe r left corner titled Islam

101.

Get a co py of the bo ok "The Legacy o f Islamic Antisemitism" from the author Andrew

Bostom at the site andrewbostom.org. At the site, read the notes on the front cover

painting.

AS A MATTER OF RAW SURVIVAL, in lieu o f outside financial as sis tance or m oney

from o il or natural gas revenues, Islam will make war and plunder in o rder to survive.

Islam will today find som e provo cation to attack.

The nature o f the plunder will not o nly be material goo ds and currency but also women

and children (historically within Islamic countries by a ratio of two thirds as sex

slaves)left over after mo st of the men have been killed off, along with so me m en and

wom en retained for labo r in o rder to maintain their Islam masters material needs.

Between the delights and necessity of plunder required by the Islamic world, and the

desire to des troy Israel and her peo ple, the mo tivation is abs olute.

A goo d gateway site to these is sues and the habits and doctrines of Islam itself to the

mo dern day can be found at the site media-quest.com

Don't hunker down, rather get in gear and prepare. Like Congressman Allen West

says, If so meo ne says they are going to kick your ass , you don't wait for them to raise

their foot.

Now, all this discussion of Islam itself may seem out of place, but in fact it is what we

are dealing with and it is what to expect.

For the general good and survival of the country, become pro-active and get the word

out to your fellow citizens. Tell your fellow citizens about the alternative news sources

to the mainstream media where one can learn abo ut what we are facing and not just

from the nature of Islamic society itself.

Again, a goo d gateway site is media-quest.com

GET THE WORD OUT to your fellow citizens .

By pkskymt on July 15, 2011 12:00 PM

A sho pping cart vender with eight kids sets hims elf on fire on the s teps o f the city hall

as a protest? It's hard to be sympathetic and it's no t hard to see why the Muslim

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countries suffer econom ic hardships in the face of this kind of pathological child

bearing rates. Israel sees similar child bearing rates, but it's not nearly as universal and

Israeli society is more rationally grounded. Still there are consequences, witness the

mas sacre o f the Vogel family. It is hard for one set o f parents to pro tect a family so

large.

But since when does Europe have a history o f confronting econo mic hardship with

xenophobia? Is this to be confused with Islamaphobia? The econom ic collapse of

Germ any after WWI helped to weaken it to the Naz is, but the Nazis were no t

xenophobic, they were antisemitic and antisemitism is not xenopho bia. This com ment

really deserved som e qualfication.

By Anonymous on July 15, 2011 5:47 PM

Great article Caroline !

Germany has o pted for closure o f its nuclear reactors under the pressure of das

Grne Totalitarismus (this younger generation wants to proo f the world som ething

good fo r what their parents did in WOII to the jews) in exchange fo r RWE (Rheinisch-

Westflisches Elektrizittswerk) to make a deal with Gazprom (Russia)

Russia is delivering Irans nuclear capability so Russia is preventing any suppo rt to

bomb Iran's atom bomb program.

The USA is financially strangled by the Chines e triad were they provoke a stagna tion o f

the world's eco nom y by a high energy price by a artificial high demand for (islam) o il.

China thus prevents the US to bom b Iran's nuclear underground facility as well.

The western world m ust opt for a mass ive nuclear power & a worldwide Electric

Autom obile Industry because o f this geo -po litical stalemate due to this Chinese

artificial Peak Oil !

Frank Gaffney's plea for Energy Freedom lacks the vision of bo th massive as well as

much cheaper energy

Israel is now on the brink to defend the western values as well as the US & Europe for

they cannot defend themselves anymo re !

If Israel were to bo mb Iran's evil works then Israel saves m y freedom ..If Egypt were to attack Israel then Israel is left no other o ption than to perm anently

occupy Sinai. The sam e with liberating the Christians in Libanon from Hezbo llah ..

As far as Syria is concerned indeed it woul d be best that the Syrian Kurds were

acknowledged in their right of self determination !

I thank mis s Glick to exam ine the financial status within the Arab Uprise o f countries

like Jordan & Syria.

Most unfortunately Israel is one of two fronts.

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The second is the rise of the Pakistani Neo Taliban and its jihadis infiltrating the atom

bom b complex and secondly the construction of mo re atom ic bombs thus provo king

an arms race in that region.

So, here we have the two levers:

1. Russia o ver Germany and

2. China over the US to stay neutral in the islam ic attack on the western wo rld by

attacking Israel .. and seco ndly the Pakistan front.

What the kenyan did on the 4th of June in 20 09 in Cairo did Michelle LaVaughn

Robinso n in Suid Afrika were already 69 .000 White Afrikaners have been murdered by

blacks.

This is all not a fun game anymo re.

It is abou t the future of free mankind

Not o nly islam m ust be o ut rooted form the face o f the Earth but US liberalism as well !

By philososky on July 16, 20 11 10:48 AM

Afrikaner: You are ess entially 100% correct. Although the electric car and nuclear plants

are unquestionably the practical short term solution, the electric car itself is not

conducive to long term sustainablity. The electric car type transportation should utilized

as an interim so lution while this industrial age and land use [non]planning based onunlimited petrofuel transportation is reined in and transitioned to a high-tech and

militarily powerful so ciety roo ted in sustainable agriculture and foo d production. That is,

our land use and construction of cities at present is likely completely wrong. Included

sho uld be a focus on telecommunications and work from ho me. On the nuclear topic,

so lar photovoltaic and solar thermal (in use by 80 % now in Israel for ho t water)

sho uld come into primary use while retaining existing nuclear and power grid systems.

The fuel being saved should be diverted to military use. Military manufacturing and

support sho uld be a primary focus until Islam is either contained or mo re ideally

essentially eradicated. In working terms, your use of "rooted from the face of the Earth"

may turn out to be apro pros.

By Sean on July 16 , 2011 12:44 PM

I remember you speaking a couple m onths ago , a question was raised regarding the

Middle East. Isn't the elephant in the room Islam, you responded you did no t know

much abo ut Islam. Well you sho uld start learning about it.

http://www.andrewbostom.org/blog/2011/07/15/mere-73-of-palestinians-want-jews-

annihilated-as-per-islams-canonical-hadith/

B Charles Sm th on Jul 18, 2011 7:39 AM

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l l

The storm that is approaching will be concentrated on the North African and Arab states

which, now relieved of their autocracies, will be deemed sufficiently safe as an

environment within which the antagonists will be contained, as if in a crucible, so that

they are obliged to determine their own brand of democracy, since they will not be

permitted to flee to Europe or the US. And to limit the degree o f the likely atrocities, the

Muslim Brotherho od, et al, will be under the threat of the ICC and a severe restriction

on any economic aid, which cannot, by any realistic measure, be countered by funding

out o f Iran, Saudi Arabia, or even China whose own eco nom y must be mo re inclined

towards developing domestic consumption.

Israel will have problems if the defense policy is to fight foreign aggression in the way

that the foreign aggressors expect Israel to conduct a counter offensive.

By pro american on July 18 , 2011 7:49 AM

"Obama's Muslim Brotherhood friendly foreign po licy"

You are insane.

By m axj acobs 67 on July 18, 2011 12:21 PM

I think Gantz is wro ng for go ing slo w for ano ther reason. The Egyptian Army has been

upgraded with advanced American weapo nry, including o ver 1,100 M1A1 tanks. It will be

in the interest of any anti-Israel gro up that takes control in Egypt to start a war with

Israel as soon as possible, while they still have fresh spare parts handy. If they wait,

Congress will likely cut off spare parts access and their stocks will slowly dwindle into

nothing. Eventually their armed forces will be incapable of mounting offensive

operations as fewer and fewer of their units will be at full strength due to breakdowns.

Countries like China and Russia m ight help a little but not as much as Egypt would

need. That's why I think that if any group that take con trol in Egypt wants to destroy

Israel, they will need to start the war within a couple o f mon ths of taking power.

By geo rge o n July 26, 20 11 1:54 AM

it really do es no t matter what anyone thinks!!!!!!!! " THE CREATOR OF IT ALL'' has it

under control and "all prophesy will come true 100%, this cesspoo l that "all human's

have created is abo ut to be flushed" , humbl ing is n"t it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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2011 Caroline Glick

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