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Applying risk assessment techniques to salmon management, with implications for factoring in climate effects Thomas Leschine Patrick Marchman February 22, 2005

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Risk Definitions Risk: The probability of harm coming to an individual or a population as a result of exposure to a substance or situation Risk Assessment: The use of research to determine the risk associated with a specific substance or situation [Characterized by Alvin Weinberg as "Trans-Science"] Risk Management: The public process of deciding what to do where risk has been determined to exist

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Human Health Risk Assessment (per U.S. EPA)

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Risk Perception & Communication Risk Perception: The intuitive judgments people make about risk, upon which they rely to guide their daily lives "People do not respond to risks 'as they should' ". [William Ruckleshaus, Administrator, U.S. EPA, mid-1980s.] Risk Communication: Narrowly, "any purposeful exchange of scientific information between interested parties regarding health or environmental risks." Broadly, "any public or private communication that informs individuals about the existence, nature, form, severity, or acceptability of risks. [S. Krimsky and A. Plough, "The Meanings of Risk Communication", Environmental Hazards (1988)]

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Risk Amplification at Work (Climate change arena may suffer effects of risk attenuation, also addressable via risk communication)

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Organizational & Institutional Perspectives on Risk "Programmatic Risk": The likelihood that unforeseen costs, technological, political, regulatory or other limitations or constraints will impede an organization's schedules or goals being met. ["Risk" viewed from inside the organization looking out.] "Institutional Risk/Performance Assessment": The likelihood that organizational and institutional proclivities (a.k.a. "government failure") will lead to erosion of organizational attention to (or ability to perform) task, to the point where commitments and responsibilities no longer being met. ["Risk" viewed from outside the organization looking in.]

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Conceptual Model of Vulnerability (including Institutional Risk) SOCIETY- ENVIRONMEN T REMEDY Vulnerability: How could the remedy fail due to threats from the social environmental system? HAZARD Risk: What might be the harm done to society and the environment given failure? HARM THREAT High reliability institutional management Doug Mercer, UW Dept. of Geography

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Ecological Risk Assessment Ecological risk assessment is a process used to systematically evaluate and organize data, information, assumptions, and uncertainties to help understand and predict the relationship between stressors and ecological effects in a way that is useful for environmental decision making (EPA, 1998) Stressors Biological, chemical, physical, or a combination of these Land-use change Weather or climatic forcing Snowmelt largely determines hydrology of Northwest rivers; effects extremely sensitive to both land cover and climate change (Marks et al, 1998).

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Risks to Salmon Survival Associated With Rain-on-Snow Events Cleared forest sites exposed to wind experience greatest snow loss (Marks et al. 1998) Sub-basins w/ large cleared areas in transient snow zone w/ north aspect, coupled w/ high stream gradient and other soil, geol., human disturbance conditions rated least favorable to salmon survival (Umpqua and Rogue Basins; late 90s studies by C. Berman and others at U.S. EPA, Region 10)

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Structure of an Ecological Risk Assessment (I) Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment, U.S. EPA, 1998

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Structure of a Ecological Risk Assessment (II) Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment, U.S. EPA, 1998

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Salmon extinction risk assessment Approach being developed at NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center Mix of qualitative and quantitative assessments, summarized in risk matrices Circumscribed by need to define species, or distinct population segments thereof, for determination of threatened or endangered status under ESA. Multiple factors considered, including abundance; trends, productivity and variability; genetic integrity. Changes in management, climate variation, ecological and genetic effects of hatcheries, changes in life history traits, selective effects of harvest, trends in freshwater habitat capacity also taken into account. Wainwright and Kope 1999

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Tools Visual tools that are spatial, and possibly interactive, aid in decision support and decision structuring Ideally, vary information format and content by audience (general public, scientists, policy analysts, elected officials), possibly query based

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The Lower Cedar River Watershed: Land Use Changes and Risk

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Wissmar et al, 1998

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Relative Risk Model 1990s saw several moves towards landscape-scale risk assessment. First proposed by Landis & Wiegers (1997); used in several studies on watersheds including Squalicum (Washington), Codorus (Ohio), and Willamette (Oregon). Attempts to broaden ecological risk assessments utility Traditional stressor-receptor-response model difficult to scale upwards (multiple kinds of risk hard to reconcile). Assigning ranks based on geographic areas averages out specific relationships to give a broader view.

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Impacts of Land Use Changes on Salmonid Habitat Quality in the Lower Cedar River Watershed: Regional Risk Assessment and Policy Choices Goal of thesis: Use regional risk model to characterize risks of specific land use changes to salmon habitat.

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Overall Approach Apply relative risk model (RRM) to a risk assessment on salmon survival given land use patterns in the lower Cedar River watershed. Main stressors having to do with urbanization (modified runoff caused by impervious surfaces and presence of roads). Includes sensitivity analysis. Deals with non-hatchery salmon survival only. Management and policy options restricted to those locally- implementable only. Tools restricted to more common software (GIS, Excel) Does not currently include climate impacts, but could.

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King County GIS (iMap), 2003 I II III IV V Landsburg Dam Cedar River VI

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Methods Obtained land cover data from King County publicly-available GIS sources (topography, road density, land use). Divided study area into 6 risk regions (by topography, similar land use types, and political boundaries). Chose ecological endpoints (habitat quality, etc). Identified stressors and stressor sources (road density). Relative risk model proper Assigned ranks to risk regions (stressor sources, habitat, endpoints) Filter design (relationships between risk components) Combined ranks and filters

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Translation into Vocabulary of Risk Literature suggests presence of a) dense road concentration and b) high percentage of impervious surfaces likely to be associated with degraded salmon habitattherefore a measure of relative risk. In areas of low road density but patchy vegetation, salmon habitat still vulnerable to degradation (Timm et al 2003). However, even token vegetation buffers and buffer connectivity with other areas of vegetation between densest impervious surface concentrations and streams may decrease probability of habitat becoming substantially degraded. Would be interesting to include population density as another stressor. Would areas of higher population density relative to road density (parts of Renton) be less likely to be near degraded salmon habitat than areas of lower population density, traditional suburban development? Empirical studies necessary for verification (Timm et al. 2003)

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Conclusions Concentrations of higher road density and impervious surfaces are a good predictor of runoff pattern changes that affect river hydrology. Salmon habitat in closest proximity to areas of greatest runoff disturbance is likely to be degraded. No surprises here, but what are the implications? Population growth over the next several decades will lead to growth in impervious surface area and road density, likely leading to intensified degrading of salmon habitat. Local governments can substantially reduce negative impacts by: Providing incentives for use of more permeable concrete and asphalt Encouraging (and removing zoning impediments to) denser patterns of suburban development. Vegetation connectivity (especially native) and stream buffers does much to normalize runoff from urbanized areas. RRM under development could be used to examine scenarios of climate forcing in addition to land-use change

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Where does climate change fit in? Specific effects of climate change can be incorporated into existing model. Examples: changes in river flow from changes in snowpack, projected changes in water availablity due to increased water consumption Effects of land use changes both amplify and are amplified by climate change. Increases in impermeable surfaces likely to have even greater impacts on salmon under scenarios of climate change.

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Toward Integrated Assessment of Risks and Vulnerabilities Associated with the Combined Effects of Land Use and Climate Change

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Effects to the Cedar River (Seattle Water Supply) for Middle-of-the-Road Climate Change Scenarios Source: Hamlet et al., CIG Workshop 2/05

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Define Problem Select Method Test Method/Sensitivity Select Scenarios Assess Biological Impacts Assess Socio-Economic Impacts Assess Autonomous Adjustments Evaluate Adaptation Strategies Parry & Carter Possible Cedar River Analogue Ex. Rise in sea levelMore fall precip., less winter snowpack, earlier spring runoff Ex. Model impact of climatic variation on coastal cities Model impacts of altered flows below Landsburg Dam Qualitative pilot study of flooding effects on buildings Study effects on downstream habitat wetting, flooding Projections about sea level +/- climate change Range of scenarios, rain v. snow, rain- on-snow incidence, snowmelt timing Quantitative measures of impact from flooding on ecology, society, economy Quantitative/qualitative measures of impact on habitat areas below Landsburg Automatic adujstments, such as deciding to wear rain boots instead of sandals during floods Responses that require deliberate policy decisions, such as restoring wetlands buffer between coast & settlements Existing and new development & habitat restoration respond to altered threats, opportunities Analytic-deliberative dialogue w/ regulators, stakeholders over alt. CAO packages, restoration strategies, flow mgt. Adapted from Parry and Carter, Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment, (1998)

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Analytic Deliberative Dialogue: Democratizing Risk Analysis National Research Council. (1996). Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. getting the right science getting the science right, getting the right participation getting the participation right developing an accurate, balanced and informative synthesis Drew, AAAS 2004

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Framing and Informing Research Community StakeholdersManagers INFORMING FRAMING INFORMING

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Grand Conclusions Combined effects of climate and land use change likely important determinants of future in-stream salmon habitat suitability Eco risk approaches (esp. RRM and NOAA extinction risk model) well suited to framing examination of these effects IPCC integrated assessment framework provides a complementary and useful umbrella framework Use of analytic-deliberative process of NRC for framing and informing likely makes assessments more useful to decision makers, and may increase chances vulnerabilities recognized and risks addressed.