Applied Demography and Indigenous Population Health

John Taylor

Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research

The Australian National University

Age pyramids 2001 and 2009

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 plus

Thousands

2001

2009

Male Female

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 plus

Thousands

2001

2009

Male Female

Indigenous Non-Indigenous

Indigenous and non-Indigenous population distribution by remoteness region, 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Major cities Inner regional Outer regional Remote Very remote

Per

cen

t of p

opul

atio

n gr

oup

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Indi

geno

us %

of t

otal

Non-Indigenous Indigenous Indigenous share

Distribution of Indigenous Populations in Metropolitan Areas by Socioeconomic Status of Neighbourhood,

1991, 1996, and 2001

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Major urban CDs distributed by decile of SES

Per

cen

t in

deci

le g

roup

1991

1996

2001

Indigenous Unemployment Rates in the Highest Unemployment

Sydney Neighbourhoods: 2001

Indigenous Area Non-Indigenous unemployment rate

Indigenous unemployment rate

Campbelltown 35.0 47.9

Waterloo 23.0 41.8

Blacktown Bidwill 21.5 55.4

Blacktown Tregear 19.0 67.5

Blacktown Shalvey 18.9 40.0

Fairfield 16.2 28.7

Blacktown Letheridge Park

15.0 43.6

Macquarie Fields 13.5 32.7

Indigenous/Non-Indigenous population change in select regional centres

1996-2001

Non-Indigenous %

change

Indigenous % change

Broken Hill -5.9 50.5

Dubbo 4.0 29.7

Orange 5.1 39.2

Tamworth 1.5 39.5

Port Augusta -6.8 14.0

Kalgoorlie -1.5 12.0

Total 0.7 27.8

Indigenous/non-Indigenous net migration rates by age in select regional

centres1996-2001

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65+

Rat

e p

er '0

00

Indigenous Non-indigenous

Change in Indigenous share of population: inland towns 1996-

2006

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

20.0

1996 2001 2006

Census year

Indi

gnou

s %

of p

opul

atio

n

Broken Hill

Dubbo

Orange

Tamworth

Port Augusta

Kalgoorlie

Indigenous settlement distribution

Select services and infrastructure at discrete Indigenous communities by settlement size

category:

Northern Territory 2006 Population size

<100 100-499 500-999 >1,000 Total

No. of communities 560 63 12 6 691

Estimated usual population

9,681 13,890 8,530 9,310 41,681

Pre-primary school 5 (0.9) 24 (38) 8 (67) 4 (67) 41 (6)

Primary school 56 (10) 46 (73) 12 (100) 6 (100) 120 (17)

Secondary school to Year 12

0 (0) 6 (9) 4 (33) 3 (50) 13 (2)

Aged accommodation 2 (0.3) 10 (16) 0 (0) 4 (67) 16 (2)

Women’s refuge 0 (0) 7 (11) 5 (42) 3 (50) 15 (2)

Store 11 (2) 47 (75) 12 (100) 6 (100) 76 (11)

Child care centre 1 (0.2) 24 (38) 9 (75) 5 (83) 39 (6)

Youth centre 0 (0) 15 (24) 4 (33) 5 (83) 24 (3)

Swimming pool 0 (0) 3 (5) 4 (33) 2 (33) 9 (1)

Access to a doctor 106 (19) 44 (70) 11 (92) 6 (100) 167 (24)

Hospital 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0)

Primary health care centre

9 (2) 24 (38) 10 (83) 4 (67) 47 (7)

% of dwellings requiring major repairs/replacement

27.8 30.2 40.3 29.5 31.2

Occupancy rate per functional dwelling

6.6 8.6 12.3 14.2 9.4

Figures in parenthesis = percent of locations of each settlement size with select facility

Population growth and housing need: Wadeye 2003-2023

157 functional dwellings

Occupancy rate of 17 per dwelling

122 extra dwellings required by 2023 just to maintain this rate

465 extra dwellings need by 2023 to meet government standards

= $53 million in 2003

Indigenous settlement and mobility regions in remote

Australia

Indigenous per cent of total town populations pre- and post-

potential migration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ind

igen

ou

s %

of

tow

n p

op

ula

tio

n

2001 Post-migration

Select indicators of Indigenous disadvantage in the Pilbara region, 2006

Population aged 15+ 4,759

Has no post-school qualification 4,200

Has below Year 10 schooling 1,500

Not in the labour force 2,190

Hospitalised each year 2,800

Alcohol-related hospitalisations 10%

Has diabetes (25 yrs and over) 1,020

Has a disability 1,020

Arrested each year (Individuals) 1,050

In custody/supervision order at any one time 310

Achieved Yr 7 literacy (current school attendees) 60%

15 year olds surviving to age 65 <50%

Select social indicators across the life span: Ratios of Indigenous to non-

Indigenous levels

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Ind

ige

no

us

to

No

n-I

nd

ige

no

us

Ra

tio

Take home messages

Indigenous disadvantage is multi-layered producing a vicious cycle of outcomes that accumulate over the life span

Demographic ‘hotspots’ are emerging where this multi-layered disadvantage is becoming spatially concentrated

Policy should coalesce around these structural settings that transcend jurisdictional boundaries and require regionalised/localised response• Poor City Suburbs, Regional Towns, Town Camps,

Indigenous Towns, Outstations

Material sourced from: Taylor, J. 2006. Population and Diversity: Policy Implications of Emerging Indigenous Demographic

Trends, CAEPR Discussion Paper No. 283Available at:

http://www.anu.edu.au/caepr/Publications/DP/2006_DP283.pdf