APNIC Depletion of the IPv4 free address pool – IPv6 deployment The day after!!
description
Transcript of APNIC Depletion of the IPv4 free address pool – IPv6 deployment The day after!!
APNIC
Depletion of the IPv4 free address pool – IPv6 deployment
The day after!!
8 August 2008Queenstown, New Zealand
In conjunction with APAN
Cecil Goldstein, Training Manager
Acknowledgements
This presentation includes material and information from Geoff Huston (APNIC Chief Scientist)
IPv4 countdown
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
Let us imagine that today is the day after!!!
22 December 2011
And...you need IP address space
What happens??
What will the Internet look like ?
What will you do?
Well, that will depend on what happens between now and
22 Dec 2011
• So let us consider then where we are NOW and how we may move to THEN…….
IP Addresses – what makes the internetThe Internet
IPv4 \IPv6
Allocation
Allocation
Assignment
end user
* In some cases via an NIR such as KRNIC
*
The address infrastructure today
2004:
Number Resource Organization
What is APNIC?
• Regional Internet Registry (RIR) for the Asia Pacific region
• Responsible for distributing Internet resources throughout the AP region
• Industry self-regulatory body• Consensus-based, open, and transparent
decision-making and policy development• Meetings and mailing lists• Open to anyone
– http://www.apnic.net/meetings/23/index.html– http://www.apnic.net/community/lists/index.html
RIR policy development process
OPEN
TRANSPARENT‘BOTTOM UP’
Anyone can participate
All decisions and policies documented and freely available to anyone
Internet community proposes and approves policy
Need
DiscussEvaluate
Implement Consensus
Global policy coordination
NROAPNIC
ARIN
RIPE NCC
LACNIC
AfriNIC
ASO ICANN
The main function of ASO:
• ASO receives global policies and policy process details from the NRO• ASO forwards global policies and policy process details to ICANN board
APNIC address policy
[prop-050] IPv4 address transfers
[prop-055] Global policy for the allocation of the remaining IPv4 address space
[prop-062] Use of final /8
[prop-063] Reducing timeframe of IPv4 allocations from twelve to six months
[prop-066] Ensuring efficient use of historical IPv4 resources
Policy proposals for APNIC 26
The growth of the Internet and IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion
IPv4 Address Pool – June 2005
25%available
source: http://potaroo.net
Central Registry
RIPE NCC
AfriNICARINLACNIC
APNIC
Other
IPv4 IANA address pool – March 2008
16%available
source: http://potaroo.net
Central Registry
RIPE NCC
AfriNICARIN
LACNIC
APNIC
Other
18
Projected lifetime of remaining IPv4 addresses
Current free pool
41 x /8
IANA pool depletition:
1st Half of 2011
RIRs pool depletion:
2nd half of 2011
IPv4 address space issued - RIRs to customersFirst quarter (to March ) 2008
19
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
(First Quarter 2008)
/8s
IPv4 address consumption prediction
• Assumptions– Tomorrow is a lot like today– Trends visible in the recent past continue into
the future
• This model assumes that there will be:– no panic– no change in policies– no change in the underlying demand dynamics– no rationing– no withholding or hoarding!
• No really! Ref: IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by Geoff Huston, Sept 2007
So what will happen after the exhaustion?
• The Internet will not stop but its growth will be impacted
• Who will be impacted?– ISPs
• Sustaining their business models will become more difficult unless you have huge IPv4 address blocks
– End users• Cost of access to the Internet will increase
Some possible scenarios
• What will happen after the IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion?– Persist in IPv4 networks using more NATs– Address markets emerging for IPv4– Routing fragmentation– IPv6 deployment/ transition
Ref: IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by Geoff Huston, Sept 2007
Address market ?
IPv6 deployment
Issues and concerns
IPv6 current deployment status
• Not many cases of production networks– Not many business cases– Quite a few research and experimental
networks
• Some statistics to review
26
IPv4
IPv6ASN
IPv6
IPv4ASN
250,000 27,000
8501,000
IPv4 vs IPv6
APNIC IPv6 delegations by year
27 As of this date
Issues
• Obviously not many production networks deployed– Gap in understanding between front line
network engineers and decision makers• CEOs and CIOs do not seem interested or aware enough to make investments not making tangible profit
• Commercial value
Where are we heading?
• We should look to preserve the functionality and integrity of the Internet as a service platform– Functionality of applications– Viability of routing– Capability to sustain continued growth– Integrity of the network infrastructure
https://www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-55/presentations/huston-ipv4.pdf
But this is not all…..
• We are running into exhaustion of the 16-bit AS Number pool– Estimated exhaustion time: 1200 UTC 1
November 2010– See http://www.potaroo.net/tools/asns
RIRs and 32-bit AS Numbers
• From 1 January 2007 the RIRs are allocating 32-bit AS numbers (upon specific request)
• From 1 January 2009 the RIRs will be allocating 32-bit AS numbers by default (leaving some 16-bit AS numbers available upon specific request)
Conclusion
• Plan
• Compare
• Prepare
• Test
• Deploy
IPv6 is not a new product to sell…..it is a means to sustainability