APES Chapter 12 Human Populations. Key Points How is population size affected by birth, death,...
-
Upload
denis-walton -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of APES Chapter 12 Human Populations. Key Points How is population size affected by birth, death,...
APES Chapter 12
Human Populations
Key Points• How is population size affected by birth,
death, fertility, and migration rates?• How is population size affected by the
percentage of males and females at each age level?
• How can population growth be slowed?• What successes have India and China had
in slowing population growth? • How can global population growth be
reduced?
Factors Affecting Human Population Size
• Three factors influence population growth– Births, deaths, and migration.
• Population change calculated by population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
• Instead of using total numbers they use crude birth rate (number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year) and crude death rate (number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year.
Average Crude Birth And Crude Death Rates
Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3Slide 3
Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate
World
All developedcountries
All developingcountries
Developingcountries
(w/o China)
21
9
11
10
24
8
29
9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Figure 12-3 (1)Page 255
Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4Slide 4
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
Oceania
UnitedStates
NorthAmerica
Europe
38
14
23
6
20
7
18
7
15
9
14
9
10
11
Figure 12-3 (2)Page 255
© 20
04 B
rook
s/Cole
–
Thom
son L
earn
ing
World’s Annual Population Change• Birth rates and death rates are coming
down worldwide but death rates are falling faster than birth rates and therefore we are increasing in size. (approximately 216,000 new people each day, most in LDC’s)
• Rate of world’s annual population change (excluding migration) is expressed as:
Annual rate of natural population change (%) = Birth rate - death rate X 100
1000
= Birth rate – death rate
10
Average Annual Rate of Population Change 2002
Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5Slide 5
<1%
1-1.9%2-2.9%
3+%Data notavailable
Annual worldpopulation growth
Figure 12-4Page 256
Exponential Growth
• Exponential growth has not disappeared but it has slowed down.
• It dropped 42% from 1963 at 2.2% to 2002 at 1.28%. This is good!
• However the population base increased 94%. This is bad!
• This 1.28% increase may seem small but, it adds 79 million people to the world each year.
• And with the large base it means 79 million people each year in 2002 whereas in 1963 it was only 69 million!!
Average Annual Increase in World’s Population1950-2002 and
Projections to 2005
Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6Slide 6
Figure 12-5Page 256
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
Gro
wth
ra
te (
pe
rce
nt)
Po
pu
latio
n in
billio
ns
Year
Less developed countries
More developed countries
World Rates of Population Growth
• China (1.28 billion) and India (1 billion) have the largest numbers of people and the largest bases accounting for 37% of the world’s population. (USA is third with 288 million people)
Most Populous Countries 2002
Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7Slide 7
© 2
00
4 B
roo
ks/C
ole
–
Th
om
so
n L
earn
ing China
India
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Russia
Bangladesh
Japan
Nigeria
2002 2025
1.28 billion1.5 billion
1 billion1.4 billion
288 million
346 million
217 million282 million
174 million
219 million
144 million
242 million
144 million129 million
134 million
178 million
127 million
121 million
130 million205 million Figure 12-6
Page 257
Changes in Global Fertility Rates
• Two types of fertility:• Replacement level fertility: the number of
children a couple must bear to replace themselves.
• It is slightly higher than 2 children per couple (2.1 in developed countries and 2.5 in developing countries), mostly because some female children die before reaching their reproductive years.
Replacement Level Fertility
• Does reaching replacement level fertility mean an immediate halt to population growth?
• No!! Because so many future parents are alive. • IF each of today’s couples had an average of 2.1
children and their children also had 2.1 children, then the world’s population would continue to grow for 50 years or more (assuming death rates do not rise)
Total Fertility Rate• An estimate of the average number of children a
woman will have during her childbearing years if between ages 15 and 49 she bears children at the same rate women did this year.
• The TFR has dropped since 1950• 2002 the global TFR was 2.8 children per
woman. LDC’s is 3.1 and MDC’s is 1.6• In 1950 it was 6.5 in LDC’s and 2.5 in MDC’s • This is good progress yet, it is still above the
Replacement level fertility
Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11Slide 11
World
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia
Oceania
NorthAmerica
Europe
5 children per women2.8
2.5
1.6
6.53.1
6.65.2
5.92.7
5.92.6
3.82.5
3.52.1
2.61.4
1950 2002
Figure 12-9Page 258
© 2
004
Bro
oks
/Co
le –
Th
om
son
Lea
rnin
g
Total Fertility Rate 1950-2002
Total Fertility Rates in 2002
Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12Slide 12
Births per woman
< 2
2-2.9
3-3.9
4-4.9
5+
Data notavailable
Figure 12-10Page 258
Case Study: How Have Fertility Rates Changed in the United States
• U.S. population has grown from 76 million in 1900 to 288 million in 2002 even though the country’s TFR has fluctuated wildly.
• Our growth is still faster than any other developed country when include migration
• In 2002 we increased 2.9 million: 1.7 million more births than deaths; 900,000 legal immigrants and refugees; and an estimated 300,000 illegal immigrants
Total Fertility Rates U.S. 1917-2002
Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14Slide 14
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.02.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
01920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Bir
ths
pe
r w
om
an
Baby boom(1946-64)
Figure 12-12Page 259
Birth Rates in the U.S. From 1910 -2002
Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15Slide 15
Figure 12-13Page 259
32
30
2826242220181614
0Bir
ths
pe
r th
ou
sa
nd
po
pu
lati
on
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Demographictransition
Depression
End of World War II
Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom
Factors that Affect Birth Rates and Fertility Rates
• Importance of Children as a part of the labor force• Urbanization• Cost of raising and educating children• Educational and employment opportunities for
women• Infant mortality rate• Average age at marriage• Availability of private and public pension systems• Availability of legal abortions• Availability of reliable birth control methods• Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms
Comparison of Basic Demographic Data for U.S., Canada and Mexico
Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18Slide 18
Figure 12-15Page 260
United States Mexico Canada
Population(2002)
Projected population(2025)
346 million
Infant mortality rate
Lifeexpectancy
Total fertilityrate (TFR)
% populationunder age 15
% populationover age 65
Per capitaGNI PPP
288 million102 million
31 million
132 million36 million
6.625
5.3
2.12.9
1.5
21%33%
19%
13%
13%5%
$8,790
77 years75 years
79 years
$34,110
$27,170
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19Slide 19
Figure 12-16 (1)Page 261
Extremely Effective
Highly Effective
Total abstinence
Sterilization
Vaginal ring
Hormonal implant(Norplant)
IUD with slow-releasehormones
IUD plus spermicide
Vaginal pouch(“female condom”)
IUD
Condom (good brand)plus spermicide
Oral contraceptive
100%
99.6%
98-99%
96%
98%
98%
97%
95%
95%
93%
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20Slide 20
Figure 12-16 (2)Page 261
Effective
Cervical cap
Condom (good brand)
Diaphragm plusspermicide
Rhythm method (Billings,Sympto-Thermal)
Vaginal sponge impreg-nated with spermicide
Spermicide (foam)
89%
86%
84%
84%
83%
82%
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21Slide 21
Figure 12-16 (3)Page 261
Moderately Effective
Unreliable
Spermicide (creams,jellies, suppositories)
Withdrawal
Rhythm method (dailytemperature readings)
Condom (cheap brand)
Douche
Chance (no method)
75%
74%
74%
70%
40%
10%
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Factors Affecting Death Rates
• Large increase in the world’s population growth over the past 100 years is not the result of increase in crude birth rate but a decrease in crude death rates.
• More people started living longer and few infants died as – Increased food supply and distribution– Better nutrition– Improvements in medical and public health
technology– Improved sanitation and personal hygiene– Safer water supplies
Indicators of overall health of a people in a country or region
• Two factors are good useful indicators of overall health
• Life Expectancy: the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live
• Infant Mortality Rate: the number of babies out of every 1000 born who die before their 1st birthday.
Good News/ Bad News About Life Expectancy
• Good news: Life expectancy at birth has increased globally from 48-67 years (MDC’s to 76 years and LDC’s to 65 years)
• Bad news: in the world’s 49 poorest countries, mostly in Africa, the life expectancy is 55 or less. And declining due to AIDS.
Why Infant Mortality is the Single Most Important Measure of a Societies
Quality of Life
• High Infant Mortality Rate usually indicates insufficient food; poor nutrition, and high incidence of infectious disease.
• Infant mortality rates have declined since 1965 from 20 per 1000 live births to 7 in MDC’s and from 118 to 60 in LDC’s.
Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24Slide 24
Figure 12-18Page 262
<1010-3536-70
100+Data notavailable
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births
71-100
Infant Mortality and the U.S.
• Between 1900 and 2002 the U.S. infant mortality dropped from 165 to 6.8. This led directly to the increase in life expectancy.
• However even though it is so low the U.S. has 37 other countries with lower Infant Mortality rates
• Why is the U.S. rate so high in comparison?– Inadequate health care (mainly for poor women)– Drug addictions among pregnant women– High teenage birth rates
Good News/ Bad News About Infant Mortality in the U.S.
• Good News: the U.S. birth rate among girls ages 15 – 19 has declined and was at it’s lowest since 1940.
• Bad News: The U.S. has the highest teenage pregnancy rate of any industrialized nation; many of them end in abortion and those that actually go full term produce babies with low birth weight.
Population Age Structure
• The proportion of the population of each sex at each age level.
• Three age levels: – Pre-reproductive: 0-14– Reproductive: 15-44– Post-reproductive: 45-85+
Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26Slide 26
Zero GrowthSpain
AustriaGreece
Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden
Male Female Male Female
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+
Figure 12-19 (2)Page 263
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25Slide 25
Male Female
Rapid GrowthGuatemala
NigeriaSaudi Arabia
Slow GrowthUnited States
AustraliaCanada
Male Female
Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+
Figure 12-19 (1)Page 263
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth?
• When you have a wide base to an age structure (high pre-reproductive 0-14) you have a built in momentum for population growth. (as long as death rates do not rise)
• This will continue to support population growth even if the population reaches Replacement Level Fertility.
• In 2002, 30% of the population of the World was pre-reproductive.
Worldwide Population Age Structure Comparisons
• Populations have stabilized in Japan and the European countries yet, population size is expected to double or triple before stabilizing in LDC’s is reached.
• We live in a demographically divided world of the haves and have nots.
• We can use these age structure diagrams to make economic as well as population projections for the future. As seen through the U.S. age structure and the baby boom over time.
Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30Slide 30
Population(2002)
Populationprojected
(2025)
Infantmortality
rate
Lifeexpectancy
Fertilityrate (TFR)
%Populationunder
age 15
% Populationover
age 65
Per capitaGNI PPP
(2000)
288 million174 million
130 million
346 million219 million
205 million
6.833
75
77 years
69 years52 years
2.12.2
5.8
21%33%
44%
13%5%
3%
$34,100$7,300
$800
United States (highly developed)
Brazil (moderately developed)
Nigeria (less developed)
Figure 12-21Page 264
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31Slide 31
Age Age
Females Males
1955
201612
84
48
1216
20
2420
1612
84
48
1216 20
24
Females Males
1985
Millions MillionsFigure 12-22 (1)
Page 265
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32Slide 32
Age
2420
1612
84
48
1216 20
20
Females Males
Age
Females Males
1955
2420
1612
84
48
1216 20
20
2035
MillionsMillionsFigure 12-22 (2)
Page 265
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Economic Effects of Baby Boomers and Future Generations
• With about half the population of the U.S. baby boomers influence:
• The goods and services market.• Who is elected and what laws are passed.• Creating a 50 something and 60 something
market.• Influence the baby-bust generation (Gen. X) to
pay higher taxes (Social Security, health-care, and income) to support baby boomers.
Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34Slide 34
194541.9 workers
40
30
20
10
0
195016.5
20751.9
1945 2000 2050 2075
Nu
mb
er
of
wo
rke
rs s
up
po
rtin
ge
ac
h S
oc
ial
Se
cu
rity
be
ne
fic
iary
YearFigure 12-23
Page 265
Baby Bust and Echo Boom• Baby bust should have things easier in some
respects than baby boom such as; opportunities for education, jobs, services, and labor shortages may drive up wages because less people competing.
• However; difficult to get job promotions as the baby boomers mature and hold many higher level positions later in life due to advanced health care, later age for Social Security, and need to accumulate retirement funds.
• Echo Boom is the largest generation ever and will soon have more economic power than baby boom parents.
Some Effects of Population Decline From Reduced Fertility
• Increase in the percentage of people over the age of 60.
• Increase in social services and health care requirements.
• Decrease in the needed worker base to sustain such programs.
• By 2050, 39 countries including Japan, Germany, Italy, Hungary and Ukraine will be smaller than today.
Effects of Population Decline From Rise in Death Rates
• HIV/AIDS kills more young adults while hunger and malnutrition kill the infants and children.
• AS the young adults age structure shifts due to the deaths caused by AIDS reslut are:– Drop inaveragelife expectancy– Loss of young adult workers and trained
personnel– Ris in the number of orphans– Drop in food production
Solutions: Influencing Population Size
• Migration is limited in most countries, only Australia, Canada, and U.S. allow large increases each year.
Solutions: Influencing Population Size
Birth rates:Many believe that the earth has already exceeded it’s carrying capacity.Others believe we may be able to go to 20 billion people. Take the increasing life expectancy as a reason.How do we sustain the growth of the population without endangering the environment more.
We fail to provide the basic necessities today for one of every six people. How are we going to support 3.9 billion more people by 2050.
How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth Rates
• Demographic Transition
Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37Slide 37
Low
High
Rela
tive p
op
ula
tio
n s
ize
Bir
th r
ate
an
d d
eath
rate
(nu
mb
er
per
1,0
00 p
er
year)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Stage 1Preindustrial
Stage 2Transitional
Stage 3Industrial
Stage 4Postindustrial
Lowgrowth rate
Increasing growth rate
Very highgrowth rate
Decreasinggrowth rate
Lowgrowth rate
Zerogrowth rate
Negativegrowth rate
Birth rate
Total population
Death rate
Time
Figure 12-25Page 269
Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates
• Advantages of Family Planning:• Increase the proportion of married women in developing
countries who use birth control• 50% drop in TFR since 1950• Reducing the number of legal and illegal abortions• Decreasing the risk of death form pregnancyUnfortunately,42% of all pregnancies in LDC’s are unplanned and 26%
end in abortion.Many women, 250-350 million, want to limit the number and
determine the spacing of their children, but they lack access to services.
Family Planning Reduces Birth Rates and Abortion Rates
• Future Goals: • Expanding family planning to include teenagers and
sexually active unmarried women who are often excluded.
• Pro-choice and por-life groups to join forces in greatly reducing unplanned births and abortions, especially among teenagers
• Programs to educate men about having fewer children and taking more responsibility for raising them
• Increased research on developing new, more effective, and more acceptable birth control methods for men
Empowering Women to Reduce Birth Rates
• Women tend to have fewer children when they have access to education and jobs outside the home and live in societies in which their rights are not suppressed.
• Most analysts believe that women everywhere should have full legal rights and opportunity to become educated and earn income outside the home.
• Not possible without a great deal of social changes in many of the male-dominated societies of today.
Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth Rates• Many couples in developing countries
want 3-4 children, well above RLF.• Analysts suggest that one way to get them
to downsize is offer economic rewards or penalties to help slow growth.
• About 20 countries offer small payments to people who agree to use contraceptives or to be sterilized, yet many who do this have already had all the kids they want.
Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth Rates• Some countries penalize couples for
having too many kids, like China.• Penalties range from raising taxes,
charging fees, or eliminating tax deductions for a couple’s third child (Singapore, Hong Kong, Ghana)
• Penalties may also include loss of health care benefits, food allotments, and job opportunities.
Economic Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Birth Rates• These work best if
– They encourage (rather than coerce) people to have fewer children
– Reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families
– Do not penalize people who produce large families before the programs were established
– Increase a poor family’s economic status.
Case Study: India• India: First family planning program in 1952.• Since then population has still increased.• And they continue to face serious malnutrition,
poverty, and environmental damage. ( see list on pages 272-273)
• Many of it’s proponents are disappointed even though without the program the conditions would be worse. Many problems arose from the family planning program: poor planning, bureaucratic inefficiency, the low status of women( even though guaranteed equality), extreme poverty and lack of administrative support and financial support.
Case Study: China• China:Sharp drop in crude birth rate and TFR
since 1972 from 5.7 –1.8 children per woman.
• However to achieve these goals the dictatorship had to chose between mass starvation, if no control measures were put into place, and coercive measures to limit population growth. They chose very strict and coercive measures!!
Case Study: China• These population control measures included:
– Couples urged to postpone age of marriage and to pledge to have only one child.
– Free access to sterilization, contraceptives, and abortion.
– Received extra food, larger pensions, better housing, free medical care, salary bonuses, free school tuition and preferential treatment in the employment.
Case Study: China• The success of the program has led China to
consider allowing the rural families to have a second child to support the growing elderly population in the future.
• However the successes are still limited by the environmental impact of over 1 billion people and may reduce the ability to produce enough food and health care for its still growing population.
Cutting World Population Growth• In 1994 the third UN Conference on Population and
Development was held in Cairo, Egypt.• Goals set forth to be met by 2015 included:
– provide universal access to family planning and reproductive health care
– Improve health care of infants children and pregnant women
– Encourage development and implementation of national population policies as part of social and economic policy
– Equality among men and women– Increase access to education for women and girls– Increase involvement of men in childrearing – Take steps to eradicate poverty– Reduce and eliminate unsustainable over consumption
Cutting World Population Growth• The goals of Cairo Conference included
financial promises to be met by both developing and developed countries
• Developing countries were to contribute 17 billion dollars with the developed countries supplying the rest.
• However by 2002, the goals were only partially met; 70% by the developing countries and only 40% by the developed countries.
Cutting World Population Growth• However, there was a realization that
population control can work (Japan, China, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, and Iran).
• Within a 15-30 year time frame you can see achieve RLF.
• From these countries and others efforts some of the best ways to control population growth have been discovered:– Investing in family planning– Reducing poverty– elevating the status of women