AOP7: Verification of landfall AOP7: Verification of landfall typhoon forecasttyphoon forecast

WMO WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration ProjectDemonstration Project

(WMO-TLFDP) (WMO-TLFDP)

Leading institutions: Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMALeading institutions: Shanghai Typhoon Institute/CMA East China RMC/CMA East China RMC/CMA

RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Centre

Progress Report to Typhoon Committee, 6-9 September 2010, Macao, China

Implementing duration: 2010-2012Implementing duration: 2010-2012

ObjectivesObjectives To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision-makers To strengthen the ability of forecasters and decision-makers

to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts;to analyze and determine the accuracy of typhoon forecasts; To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of To assess the WMO-LTFDP’s impacts on the enhancement of

the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and the ability in typhoon forecast as well as its social and economic benefits;economic benefits;

To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in To enhance the capability of forecasting landfall typhoon in the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the “Shanghai MHEWS” and to provide a better service for the Expo 2010;the Expo 2010;

To demonstrate the performance of the most To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting technique in the world;advanced forecasting technique in the world;

To promote the implementation of the most advanced To promote the implementation of the most advanced forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO forecasting technique for landfall typhoon in WMO members.members.

TasksTasks

Collection of real-time forecast dataCollection of real-time forecast data

Verification of forecastsVerification of forecasts

Dissemination of productsDissemination of products

Benefit AssessmentBenefit Assessment

Forecast integration techniquesForecast integration techniques

OrganizationOrganization International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC) International Scientific Steering Committee (ISSC)

• Steering and evaluating the project activities Steering and evaluating the project activities

• Nominated by WMONominated by WMO

Project Coordination Group (PCG)Project Coordination Group (PCG)

• To provide a key forum for the coordination of activities To provide a key forum for the coordination of activities

between the ISSC and the RSCbetween the ISSC and the RSC

East China Regional Steering Committee (RSC)East China Regional Steering Committee (RSC)

• In charge of the management and the implementation of In charge of the management and the implementation of

the project the project

• Director: Director of East China RMC/CMA.Director: Director of East China RMC/CMA.

• Members: nominated by East China RMC/CMA.Members: nominated by East China RMC/CMA.

The proposal was proposed by Shanghai The proposal was proposed by Shanghai Meteorology Bureau/CMA (Meteorology Bureau/CMA (East China RMC) East China RMC) during during the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009the IWTCLP-II in Shanghai, China, 19 – 23 Oct. 2009..

The proposal was adopted by the CAS-XV in The proposal was adopted by the CAS-XV in Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009.Incheon, ROK, 18 – 25 Nov. 2009.

The collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble The collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP was Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP was discussed in Geneva, Feb. 2010.discussed in Geneva, Feb. 2010.

The concept document was finalized in March 2010.The concept document was finalized in March 2010. The ISSC was offically set up in March 2010.The ISSC was offically set up in March 2010.

MilestonesMilestones

The members of ISSCThe members of ISSCProf. Lianshou CHEN (CMA/CAMS) (Lead scientist)Prof. Lianshou CHEN (CMA/CAMS) (Lead scientist)

Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/SMB) (Co-lead scientist)Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/SMB) (Co-lead scientist)

Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI)Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI)

Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI)Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI)

Mr. Chuanhai QIAN (CMA/NMC)Mr. Chuanhai QIAN (CMA/NMC)Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA) Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA) Dr K. KANG (KMA/National Typhoon Center) Dr K. KANG (KMA/National Typhoon Center)

Dr. Boon-Ying LEE (Hong Kong Observatory)Dr. Boon-Ying LEE (Hong Kong Observatory)

Prof. Johnny CL CHAN (Hong Kong City University)Prof. Johnny CL CHAN (Hong Kong City University)

Dr James FRANKLIN (NOAA)Dr James FRANKLIN (NOAA)

Dr Anna GHELLI (ECMWF)Dr Anna GHELLI (ECMWF)

Dr Julian HEMING (UK Meteorological Office)Dr Julian HEMING (UK Meteorological Office)

Dr Beth EBERT (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)Dr Beth EBERT (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)

Mr Ian SHEPHERD (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)Mr Ian SHEPHERD (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)

Dr Laurie WILSON (Meteorological Service of Canada)Dr Laurie WILSON (Meteorological Service of Canada)

Dr Brian MILLS (Meteorological Service of Canada)Dr Brian MILLS (Meteorological Service of Canada)

Dr Barbara BROWN (NCAR)Dr Barbara BROWN (NCAR)

Dr. Tetsuo NAKAZAWA (WWRP/THORPEX)Dr. Tetsuo NAKAZAWA (WWRP/THORPEX)

Dr. Hui YU (STI/CMA)Dr. Hui YU (STI/CMA)

The members of PCGThe members of PCG

Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/ECRMC)Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/ECRMC)

Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI)Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI)

Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA)Mr. Masashi Kunitsugu (RSMC/JMA)

Ms. Haleh KOOTVAL (WMO/PWSP)Ms. Haleh KOOTVAL (WMO/PWSP)

Mr. Koji KUROIWA (WMO/TCP)Mr. Koji KUROIWA (WMO/TCP)

Ms. Nanette LOMARDA (WMO/WWRP)Ms. Nanette LOMARDA (WMO/WWRP)

The members of RSCThe members of RSC

Dr. Xu TANG Dr. Xu TANG (CMA/ECRMC)(CMA/ECRMC)

Dr. Xiaotu LEI Dr. Xiaotu LEI (CMA/STI)(CMA/STI)

Dr. Hui YU Dr. Hui YU (CMA/STI)(CMA/STI)

Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI)Dr. Baode CHEN (CMA/STI)

Mr. Yinglong XU (CMA/NMC)Mr. Yinglong XU (CMA/NMC)

Mr. Zhiqiang CHEN Mr. Zhiqiang CHEN (CMA/ECRMC)(CMA/ECRMC)

Ms. Liying TAO Ms. Liying TAO (CMA/ECRMC)(CMA/ECRMC)

Collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Collaboration between NWP-TC Track Ensemble Forecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDPForecast RDP and Typhoon Landfall FDP

From TCTEFFrom TCTEFRDPRDP to TL to TLFDPFDP• TC EPS productsTC EPS products• Verification information on TC EPS productsVerification information on TC EPS products• Training (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)Training (to help forecasters prepared to use TC EPS products)

From TLFrom TLFDPFDP to TCTEF to TCTEFRDPRDP• Ideas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS productsIdeas or requirements on user-oriented TC EPS products• Feedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public serviceFeedbacks on how and to what extent TC EPS products benefit the operational forecast and public service• Training (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)Training (to popularize the experience of using TC EPS products to broader users)

Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, 24-28 May, ShanghaiForecast, 24-28 May, Shanghai

Real time collection system of the forecast products Real time collection system of the forecast products has been set up.has been set up.

Real time display system of the forecast products has Real time display system of the forecast products has been set up.been set up.

Real time verification system of the track and intensity Real time verification system of the track and intensity forecast products has been set up.forecast products has been set up.

All the real time information are being provided to the All the real time information are being provided to the EXPO weather forecasters through the operational EXPO weather forecasters through the operational website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.website of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Center.

ProgressesProgresses

11 lecturers from 9 institutionsTrainees: 20 forecasters from different meteorological bureaus of East China Region

List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection

Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet.Typhoon Forecast

Products ProviderTrack Intensity Wind Radii 2-D Gridded

Surface wind2-D Gridded Precipitation

3-D Gridded Model Output

Official forecast

NMC/CMA √ √ √（ Analyses）

RSMC Tokyo √ √ √（ Analyses）

HKO √ √NTC/KMA √ √JTWC √ √ √

Global model

NMC/CMA √ √ √ √ √RSMC Tokyo √ √ √ √ √ECMWF √ √ √

Regional model

NTC/KMA (unavailable yet)STI_GRAPES √ √ √ √ √GZ Regional model √ √ √ √STI_WARMS √ √ √

Ensemble prediction

Participants of TIGGE TC EPRDP

√ √

Concensus prediction

STI_CONS_OFFICIAL √STI_CONS_MODEL √

Statistical prediction

NHC_Wind Probability √STI_TCSP √STI_SIZE √STI_ANALOG √(stations)

Real time display system(Only Chinese version is currently available)

Official Forecast

Real time display system(Only Chinese version is currently available)

Objective Forecast

Real time display system(Only Chinese version is currently available)

TIGGE Ensemble Prediction

Real time display system(Only Chinese version is currently available)

Gridded model output

Real time verification systemReal time verification system(Track forecast verificaiton)(Track forecast verificaiton)

Real time verification systemReal time verification system(Intensity forecast verificaiton)(Intensity forecast verificaiton)

Plan for 2011Plan for 2011

To develop the project website To develop the project website (English version)(English version)

To develop the verification system for To develop the verification system for tropical cyclone wind and precipitation tropical cyclone wind and precipitation forecastforecast

To improve the verification system for To improve the verification system for tropical cyclone track and intensity tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast, especially ensemble forecast, especially ensemble prediction and landfall forecast prediction and landfall forecast

Thank you for your attention Thank you for your attention and all your supports.and all your supports.