TYPES OF SHOTS USED IN TELEVISION NEWS The Visual Grammar of Television.
“Why Did MH17 Crash?” Blame Attribution, Television News and … · 2018-12-20 · downing of...
Transcript of “Why Did MH17 Crash?” Blame Attribution, Television News and … · 2018-12-20 · downing of...
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“WhyDidMH17Crash?”BlameAttribution,TelevisionNewsandPublicOpinioninSoutheasternUkraine,CrimeaandtheDeFactoStatesofAbkhazia,SouthOssetia,and
Transnistria
published in GEOPOLITICS Vol 23, no. 4, 2018: 882-896
GerardToal
SchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairs
VirginiaTech,NationalCapitalRegion
Alexandria,VA22314
&
JohnO’Loughlin
InstituteofBehavioralScience
UniversityofColorado-Boulder
Boulder,CO80309
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ABSTRACT
Shockeventsareoftenpivotalmomentingeopolitics,andobjectsofintensedisagreement
amongconflictingparties.ThispaperexaminesthedowningofaMalaysianAirlines
passengerjetovereasternUkraineinJuly2014andthedivergentblamestorylines
producedonRussianandUkrainiantelevisionabouttheevent.Itthenexaminesresultsofa
questionaskingwhydidMH17crashinasimultaneoussurveyconductedinDecember
2014insixoblastsinSoutheasternUkraine,Crimea,andthedefactostatesofAbkhazia,
SouthOssetia,andTransnistria.Analysisofthesurveysshowsthatblameattributionwas
drivenmorebytelevisionviewinghabitsthananyotherfactor.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ThisresearchwassupportedbyaRAPID[grant14-1442646]fromtheUSNationalScience
Foundationfortheproject“AttitudesandBeliefsintheRussian-Supported‘defacto’States
andinSouth-eastUkraineintheWakeoftheCrimeanAnnexation.”Theauthorswishto
thankNataliaKharchenkoandVolodymyrPaniottooftheKyivInternationalInstituteof
Sociology(KIIS),andAlexeiGrazdankinoftheLevadaCenter,fortheircooperationinthe
refinementofthesurveyquestionaireandtheirsubsequentsupervisionandprofessional
administrationofthesurveyinmultiplelocationsinlate2014.ThanksalsotoGela
Merabishviliforresearchandtranslationworkonthetelevisionnewsreports.Finally,the
commentsoftwoanonymousreviewersforGeopoliticshelpedrefineandsharpenour
argument.
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On17July2014MalaysianAirlines(MH)Flight17wasenroutefromAmsterdamtoKuala
LumpurwhenitwasshotfromtheskiesovereasternUkraine.Twohundredandeighty
threepassengersandacrewoffifteenwerekilled.Travelersfromtencountriesdied,
includingonehundredandninety-threefromtheNetherlands.Belowtheplane’sflightpath
awarbetweenRussian-backedseparatistrebelsandUkrainiangovernmentforceswasin
itsfourthmonth.RebelforceschallengingKyiv’scontroloveritsterritory,includingits
skies,werelosingground.DaysearliertheirmilitaryformationshadshotdownaUkrainian
AirForceAn-26(14July)andaUkrainianSu-25M1(16July).Inacomprehensivefinal
reportonthecauseofthedowningofMH17inOctober2015,theDutchSafetyBoard,the
groupleadingatechnicalinvestigationofthecrash,foundthattheplanehadbeendowned
bya9N314Mwarheadona9M38missilelaunchedbyaBuksurface-to-airsystem.1
DeterminingwholaunchedtheBukmissilewasnotwithintheremitoftheDutchSafety
BoardbutwaswithinthatofaDutchledJointInvestigatingCommittee(JIC).Inlate
September2016theyreleasedapreliminaryreportbasedonextensiveforensicanalysis,
audiointersectionsandoverahundredinterviewswitheyewitnessesandotherinformants.
ThisconcludedthatflightMH17wasshotdownbya9M38missile,launchedbyaBukfrom
farmlandinthevicinityofPervomaiskiy.2Atthattime,theareawascontrolledbypro-
Russianseparatistfighters.TheJICinvestigationdemonstratedthattheBukhadbeen
transportedfromtheRussianFederationandsubsequently,havingdestroyedMH17,was
takenbacktotheRussianFederation.3TheRussiangovernmentmaintainsthatnoBukever
crossedintoUkrainefromRussia.RussianForeignMinistryspokeswomanMaria
ZakharovadescribedtheJICfindingsas“biasedandpoliticallymotivated.”4
BeforeknowledgethatacivilianpassengerjetandnotaUkrainianmilitaryaircraft
hadbeendestroyed,asocialmediaaccountassociatedwiththeRussianmilitary
adventurerIgorGirkin(nomdeguerreStrelkov,or‘shooter’)proclaimedthatrebelshad
shotdownaUkrainianAn-26nearTorez,alongwiththedeclaration:“Wewarnedthem-
don’tfly‘inoursky.’”5Assoonasitbecameevidentthatacommercialpassengeraircraft
wasdestroyed,MH17becametheobjectofanintensestruggleoverblameattribution–the
projectionofblameontocertainactorsandnotothers-betweenthewarringpartiesin
Ukraine,theirregionalallies,andtheinternationalcommunity.(Strelkov’spostwassoon
deleted).Theviolentdeathofsomanyciviliansfromdifferentcountriesoverawarzone
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renderedwhatwassupposedtobealocalkineticeventinamilitarystruggleintoa
worldwidemediaspectacle.Picturesandstoriesofthetragedyfillednewsprogramsand
newspapersforthefollowingweek,andperiodicallythereafterasvictimremainswere
recoveredandtheDutchinvestigationsgotunderway.Western-basedfree-lancesocial
mediainvestigatorslikeBellingcatdrovemuchoftheinitialforensicinvestigationofthe
event.6Onmultiplemediafronts,theconflictingpartiesviedtoorganize,controland
channeltheaffectgeneratedbythehorrificincident.Centraltothiseffortwasthe
organizationandframingofMH17withinready-madeblameattributionandvictimization
narratives,narrativesthatdefinedandgavemeaningtothebroaderstrugglesover
Ukraine.7
Narrativeisthesocialpracticeofproducingrelativelycoherentaccountsofevents,
actorsandmotivations.Framingistheculturallyshapedcognitivepracticeofclassifying
andparticularizingthatisvitaltothecreationofnarratives.8Thispaperexaminesthe
contrastingblameattributionstorylinesthatquicklycongealedonRussianandUkrainian
televisioninthewakeoftheMH17tragedy,andwhatsurveyrespondentsinRussia,
contestedregionsofUkraine(Crimeaandsixofeightcontestedoblastsinsoutheast
Ukraine,hereafterSE6),andRussian-supporteddefactostatesinitsnearabroad
subsequentlybelievedaboutwhyMH17crashed.Theemergenceofclearlydivergentblame
attributionstorylines,andtheirpersistence,allowsustoexaminethedegreetowhich
televisionviewinghabits,interactingwithothersocio-demographic,locationalandpolitical
factors,accountsforvariationsinpeople’sbeliefsaboutMH17.Shockingandhorrific
eventsoccurregularlyinthecourseofviolentconflicts.Likethegenocidalkillingsaround
SrebrenicainJuly1995,theMH17tragedyisaninstanceofhowconflictingpartiesand
theirstatesponsors,withthetelevisionmediaundertheircontrol,produceself-protective
bubblesofbeliefaboutshockeventsthatreproducesgeopoliticalantagonism,regardlessof
forensicfacts.9Intheeraofdigitalmediaascendancy,wheregeo-locationaldataaremore
abundantthanever,truthisstillacasualtyofwarbutitsdeathincontrolledinfo-spheresis
nowmorecloselyobserved.10
Thispaperiscomposedofthreeparts.Partonebrieflydiscussesshockeventsin
internationalaffairsandtheresearchquestionstheypresent.Parttwoisanexaminationof
theemergenceofblameattributionstorylinesintheweekthatfollowednewsofthe
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downingofMH17.AnalyzingnewscoverageofMH17bythemostwatchedtelevision
stationsinRussiaandUkraine,thepaperdocumentshowthedowningofMH17was
initiallypresentedtothepublicinbothcountriesandtoalliedterritoriesabroad.Partthree
ofthepaperthenexaminesthedegreetowhichthesecontrastingstorylinesofblame
resonatedwithvaryingpublics.DrawinguponresultsfromsimultaneoussurveysinSE6,
Crimea,Abkhazia,TransnistriaandSouthOssetiainDecember2014organizedbythe
authors,thepaperexaminestherelativesupportthatdifferentblameoptionsreceived
fromrespondents.
I.MAKINGSENSEOFSHOCKEVENTS
Worldpoliticshasalwaysbeenmarkedbyshockeventsthathavedistinctive
geographiesandmaterialities.Themeaningoftheseeventsisnevermanifestlyclearand
oftenfiercelycontested.Nevertheless,shockingeventshavehistoricallycreatedwindows
ofopportunityfortransformationalpoliticalactionandchange.Withtheadventof
televisionasthepredominantsourceofinternationalnewsformostpublics,thiscontestis
amulti-mediastruggleofconjoinedsounds,imagesandnarratives.11Shockeventshave
manydifferentforms.Theycanbesingularinstancesofkillingthatslowlycometolight(e.g.
Srebrenica),violentrevolutions(thedenouementofEuromaidan),orsurprisingstate
powerplays(theannexationofCrimea).Terroristattacksareadistinctivegenreofshock
events,distinctfromcatastrophicnaturaleventsandaccidents,inthattheyareplanned
andpurposeful.ShockingeventsliketheOklahomaCitybombingin1995,theMoscow
apartmentbombingsofAugust1999,theSeptember2011attacks,theBeslanschoolsiege
of2004,andtheMumbaiterroristassaultsofNovember2008areexamplesofhow
catastrophicformsofterrorismbecomeglobalmediaevents,spectaclesofviolencewith
capacitiestotriggeraffectivestormsofshock,angerandsympathy.12Theyalsocreatewell
knownopportunitiesfortheconsolidationofpowerbythoseinpositionsofauthority.13
Horrorhasitsuses.14
Airplanecrashesareagenrethatdefyeasycharacterizationfortheycanbe
accidentsorpurposefulcasesofterrorism(aswith9/11orthedowningofPanAmflight
103inNovember1988bytheLibyangovernment).ThecrashofTWAflight800,a
passengeraircraftthatexplodedon17July1996aftertakeofffromNewYork,wasinitially
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consideredaterroristattackuntilaninvestigationdeterminedthatafueltankshortcircuit
wasmostlikelytoblame.Insomecases,thedestructionofpassengerairlinescanbe
consideredpurposefulmilitaryactionsbuttherearealsotragiccasesofmistakenidentity
(e.g.thedowningofKoreanAirlines007byaSovietSu-15in1September1983orthe
destructionofIranAirFlight655bytheUSSVincenneson3July1988).15
Inconsideringdisputesoverthemeaningofshockeventsweneedtoconsiderat
leastsixsalientfeaturesofsuchincidents.Here,duetospacelimitations,wecanmerely
noteeachbriefly.WeseeevidenceofallsixintelevisioncoverageofMH17.
1.AffectiveImages
Shockeventsare,bydefinition,affectivespectacleswhereimagesplayakeyrolein
triggeringandinducingaffectivecontagion.16Affectivecontagionhasthecapacitytowiden
existingpoliticalcleavages,deepenpoliticalpolarizationandacceleratetheeclipseof
politicsbywar.Televisionnewsprogramsfacechoicesaboutwhattoshowandwhatnotto
showoftheevent.Protocolsandeditorialdecisions,forexample,aboutwhethertoshow
thebodiesofhumanvictimsoftheeventvary.Shockingimagescansoradicalizeviewers
thatevidence-baseddiscussionofeventsnexttoimpossible.Contextandnon-proximate
causalityareeasilyforgotten.Asvisualstorytelling,televisionvideoproductioncanlink
differenteventsacrosstimeandspacethroughmontageediting.Itcanalsoproduce
animatedandvirtualrealityvisualreconstructionsofevents,thuspowerfullyshaping
interpretationandblameattribution.
2.Availability,AnalogyandAssimilation
Shockeventsarerupturesintheeverydayroutinereproductionof‘commonsense’
abouttheworld,dislocationsintheseeminglynaturaldiscursiveorder.Theycaninduce
dissonanceandopeningsingeopoliticalculturesthatwerepreviouslyclosedofffor
discussionanddebate.17Howtheseeventsareanalogizedtoothereventsinthepastand
howhegemonicnarrativesadjusttoaccommodateandrepresentshockeventsare
importantquestionsinanyresearchprojectontheiroperationandimpact.Akey
mechanismhereiswhatsomepsychologiststerm‘availabilitybias,’thepresenceand
supplyofsimilarinstancesfromthepastandtheoperationoffamiliarmodesof
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representationandnarration.18Theseallowpotentiallyrupturingeventstobeassimilated
backintoprevailingregimesof‘commonsense’ornot.19
3.AuthorityandExpertise
Theroleoffiguresrepresentedasauthoritiesindeterminingthemeaningofshock
eventsisconsiderable.Administrativeandexpertstatus,projectinglegitimacy,iscrucial.In
authoritariansocieties,theleaderofacountryisthechiefstorylinesetter.State-funded
mediatendtofollowtheleadofthecountry’spowercenter.Ifpowercentersarepluraland
themedialessbeholdentothestateorprivateactors,thereislikelytobegreaterscopefor
divergencebetweentheofficialgovernmentnarrativeonshockeventsandmedia
representations.Expertshaveadifferenttypeofauthority,onegroundedintechnical
knowledge,subject-mattermastery,culturalcapitalandapresumptionofobjectivity.
Comportment,dress,titlesandbackgroundimageryconveythistotelevisionviewers.
Whomaredeemedexpertandwhomareenabledtospeakauthoritativelyinthatrolein
public,especiallyontelevision,isaprocessthatisconditionednotonlybyculturaland
socialfactorsbutalsobyeditorialdecision-making.Whoisentrustedtodecideanddirect
whatthepublicseesisshapedbypowerstructureandculturalhabitus.20Whatis
presentedasauthoritativeandobjective,however,maybeviewedbysuspicionbycertain
socio-demographicgroupsforwhom‘mainstreammedia’arepartofaconspiracytohide
‘thetruth.’
4.BlameAttributionandAgnotology
Blameattributioncantakemanyforms.Itcanbeadirectandconcentrated
attributionofaneventtoasingularactor.Butitcanalsobeamuchmoreindirectprocess
whereattributionisnotconcentratedonasingulartargetbutdiffusedamongaseriesof
alternatives.Thefirstformgeneratesaclearstory,orcounter-story(analternative
account),abouttheevent.Inthesecondprocess,however,theeffectistogeneratea
counter-storythatmuddiesattribution.Insteadofclarity,thereisconfusionand
uncertainty.ManydifferentactorsandmeanscouldhavedownedMH17.Thepictureis
unclearandwemayneverknowwhoisresponsibleforwhat.CriticsofRussian
communicationstrategiesarguethatRussia’sgoalisnottocreateself-servingalternative
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narrativesbuttocreatesufficientconfusionanduncertaintyaboutnarrativesthatblame
Russia.21Thisformofattributiondriftstowardsagnotology,namelythesocialandpolitical
productionofignorance.Usedtodescribecorporatecampaignstodenycausalityand
createconfusion(e.g.ontobaccoandglobalwarming),thisconcepthassimilaritiestowhat
isknownasdisinformation(dezinformatsiia)in(counter)intelligencework.22
5.ConspiracyTheories
Aconspiracytheoryisastyleofinterpretativeheuristicstheexplaineventsand
practicesbyreferencetothemachinationsofpowerfulactorswhoconcealtheirroleto
duperegularpeople.23Thisstyleofreasoningisostensiblypopulistbutiseasily
appropriatedbypowerfulactors.Insocietiescharacterizedbyhighlevelsofdistrustofor
contemptforofficialinstitutions,conspiracytheoriescanbevehiclesforthatdistrustand
discontent.Thedisruptiveimpactoftheinternetontraditionalmedia,andtheriseof
personalizedexpressivesocialmediahascreatedanunregulatedandopen
communicationsecosystemforconspiracytheoriestospreadandflourish.Indeed,
considerableresearchinpsychologysuggeststhathumancognitionprocessesare‘biased’
towardscognitivelymiserlythinking;conspiracytheoriesarethusattractiveandappealing,
especiallyintimesofturmoilandcrisis.
Conspiracytheoriesflourishwhenprofessionalstandardsofjournalismare
compromised,andtrustintraditionalauthorityislow.Politiciansaswellasstateand
oligarchcontrolledmediacanbeconspiracytheorypropagatorsifitservesidentified
interests.24Asawidely-recognizedmodeandstyleofreasoning,conspiracytheoryneedsto
betreatedasacategoryofpracticeratherthanascholarlyconcept.Theframeitselfispart
ofthediscursivestruggleofblameattributionandavoidance.
6.MaterialitiesofShockEvents
Shockevents,asnoted,havetheirownmaterialitiesandcontingenciesasevents.
Catastrophiceventshavestructural,proximateandphysicalcauses,aswellas
multidimensionalmaterialimpactsandruins.Weaponsystemshavephysical
characteristics,materialcapabilitiesandvisualsignatures.Theseposedistinctive
technoscientificchallengestoinvestigatorsandthoseseekingtocontrolthemeaningof
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theseevents.Inthecourseofinvestigations,certainmaterialobjectsandtracesmaytake
oniconicstatus,andmayactinwaysthatdefythemeaningsbeingimposeduponthemby
thecontestingparties.Bow-tie-shapedfragmentsuniquetotheBuk-M1’s9N314M
warheadmadeitsidentificationpossible:hundredsoffragmentswerelodgedinthebodies
oftheaircraft’spilotandfirstofficer.Asideskirtmarkalongwithapoorlyobscuredunit
designationnumber(32)helpedBellingcatresearchersprovided‘fingerprint’identification
ofthepreciseBukvehiclethatshotdownMH17.Researchneedstobesensitivetothe
challengesofthetechnoscientificprocessofidentifyingandmeasuringthematerialitiesof
shockevents,fromtheforensicsofcrashinvestigationtotherecoveryandpainstaking
identificationofhumanremains.25
II.TELEVISIONNEWSFRAMES&BLAMEATTRIBUTION
MH17wasaglobalmediaeventthatwasfrontpagenewsworldwideintheweek
thatfollowed.Weprovideanillustrationofthenarrativeframingthatdevelopedinthefirst
weekoftheeventbycontrastingtheMH17coveragebythetwomostpopularchannelsin
RussiaandUkraine.Accordingtotelevisionratingsfor2014,PerviyKanal(FirstChannel)
inRussiaandInterinUkrainewerethemostwatchedchannelsineachcountry.26Neither
channelisfreeofcontroversyoraccusationsofbias.TheRussiangovernmentcontrolsthe
boardofdirectorsofPerviyKanalandthestationiswidelyseenasavehicleforthe
communicationsagendaoftheKremlin.PerviyKanalisthesuccessortoRussianPublic
Television,andmorebroadlytowell-knownSoviettelevisionprograms,mostnotably
CentralTelevision’sauthoritativeeveningnewsprogramVremya(Time),firstbroadcastin
1968.27
ThecontroversialUkrainianoligarchDmytroFirtashhasacontrollingstakeinInter
television.28WhileitpresentsaUkrainianperspective,Ukrainianlanguageactivists
consideritinsufficientlyUkrainianbecauseofitsrelianceonRussianlanguage
programming(itsnewsprogramsarealsoinRussian).InSeptember2016theofficesofthe
stationwerefirebombedandsubsequentblockadedbyUkrainianmilitiaactivists.They
accuseditofpursuinga“pro-Russia”agenda.29
Weconcentratedontheeveningnewsbroadcastsofeachchannel,availableinan
archiveofbroadcastsoneachchannel’swebsite.Wehavedividedtheweekofbroadcasts
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intotwocategories,thefirst100hoursoftheevent(fourdays)whicharedominatedbythe
materialityofthecrashanditsvictims,andthesecondhalfoftheweekwhichfeaturedthe
presentationofanofficialRussiancounter-storyataMoscowpressconferenceon21July.
AweekafterthecrashtworivalstorylinesonMH17werewellestablishedwithinRussian
andUkrainiangeopoliticalcultures.MH17isacentrallycontestedeventwithintheUkraine
crisis,anobjectofintensiveinformationwaronmultiplemediaplatforms.30Thispaperis
nomorethananintroductiontotheopeningroundsofthatwaranditeffectsinvarious
locations.
TheFirst100Hours:PerviyKanal’sVremya.
MH17’slastcontactwithairtrafficcontrol13:19:56UTC.31Radarimagesshowthe
aircraftrapidlylosingaltitudeat16:20localtimeinUkraine(17:20Moscowtime).Newsof
thecrashwasfirstreportedintwobriefsegmentsonPerviyKanal’s19:00hourprogram
VechernieNovosti(EveningNews).32The21:00televisionnewsprogramVremyaonPerviy
KanalwasthefirstwithsustainedcoverageofMH17.Thebroadcastbeganwithdistant
localamateurvideoandphotographsofthewreckage.33CorrespondentAlexandr
Evstigneev,reportingbyphone,presentedanon-the-groundaccountofwhathappened
accordingtolocalseparatists.TheyclaimedthataUkrainianSu-25fighterjetshotdown
thepassengeraircraftandthattheysubsequentlyshottheSU-25down.34Anewsanalysis
segmentimmediatelyafterbyMaximSeminpresentedaseriesof“facts”forinterpreting
theevent.35Inahomeofficeinterview,OlegSmirnov,headofcivilaviationcommissionat
theRussianFederalServiceforSupervisionintheSphereofTransport(Rostransnadzor)in
theMinistryofTransport,declaredthattherebelsineasternUkraineonlyhavemobile
shoulder-heldground-to-airmissiles(so-calledMANPADSwhichareeffectiveupto5,000
meters).Heclaimedtheydonothaveweaponsystemscapableofdestroyingapassenger
jetathigheraltitudes.SeminthencitedanITAR-TASSreportthattheUkrainianmilitary
movedSovietproduced“Buk”anti-aircraftmissilesystemsintotheDonetskregionpriorto
thedowning.Further,Russia’sMinistryofDefenseindicatedthatnoRussianwarplanes
wereflyingneartheborderofUkraine.Semin’sreportremindedviewersthatthe
UkrainianmilitaryshotdownaRussianTu-154airlinerinOctober2001,withthelossofall
78livesonboard.Ukraineinitiallydenieditsmilitarywasresponsible.Footageofformer
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PresidentKuchmafrom2001reactingtotheaccidentaswellasvideoofthewreckageand
subsequentinvestigationaccompaniedSemin'scommentary.Despiteinitialdenials,Semin
explained,theUkrainianauthoritieswerelaterforcedtoadmitthattheirmissilehad
indeeddestroyedtheplane,andthattheywereatfault.Thefirstclose-upvideofootageofa
wreckagesite,featuringstillsmolderingfires,wreckage,humanbodypartsandscattered
personaleffects,wasshownthereafter.
TheinformationindirectlyinferringthatUkrainewasresponsibleforthedowning
ofMH17wasrepeatedbyothercorrespondentsandexpertsoverthesubsequenthours
anddays.FurtherclaimsaboutthepoortrainingandexpertiseofUkrainianmilitarywere
made.36Tothisindictmentusingselectiveandmisleadingfactswasaddedaspeculative
conspiracytheory.37Overfootageofthesmolderingremainsoftheaircraft,thepresenter
announcedthatthepresidentialairplaneoftheRussianpresidentVladimirPutin,not
MH17,mayhavebeenthe“realtarget”.CitinganInterfaxsourceintheRussianFederal
TransportationAgency,thebroadcastdeclaredthatbothplanescrossedflightpathsnear
Warsaw,hadsimilarcontoursandcoloring,and,fromaremotedistance,werevirtually
identical,accordingtoInterfax.
Thefollowingnight’sbroadcastfeaturedsomeon-the-groundeyewitnessstoriesas
wellasinterviewswithlocalseparatistswhoclaimedthataUkrainejethaddownedthe
aircraft.38ItalsoreportedonthestatementbyRussianPresidentPutinwhich,after
expressinghiscondolencestothevictims,notedthat“thistragedywouldnothave
occurrediftherewerepeaceinthatcountry[Ukraine],orinanycase,ifhostilitieshadnot
resumedinsoutheastUkraine.”PutinthendirectlyallocatedblametoUkrainebyvirtueof
thelocationoftheaccident:“Andcertainly,thegovernmentoverwhoseterritoryit
occurredisresponsibleforthisterribletragedy.”39Arangeofexpertsappearedonthe
eveningnewsshowanddetailedthreateningstatements,militarydeploymentsand
possibleexplanations(poortraining,confusion,agingmissilestocks)forwhyUkraineshot
downMH17.40ThebroadcastalsoamplifiedtheblameattributionmadebyRussia’s
AmbassadorVitalyChurkinbeforetheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil.41Asectionof
Churkin’sspeechfeaturedhimrhetoricallyaskingwhyUkrainianairtrafficcontrollers
directedtheaircraftintoawarzone.Hedeclaredthat“ensuringthesecurityofcivilian
aviationinaState’sairspaceisthatState’sresponsibility.TheStateoverwhoseterritorya
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flightisplannedmustprovidetheinformationnecessarytoensurethesafetyofaviation.”
Inasectionnotshownhealsocomplainedaboutartilleryandmortarshellingbythe
UkrainianmilitaryintoRussia:“Weconsiderthoseprovocationsactsofaggressiononthe
partofUkraineagainstRussiancitizensandagainstitssovereignterritory.Weplaceall
blameontheKyivauthoritiesandcallfortheUkrainiansidetotakedecisivemeasuresto
preventsuchincidentsinfuture.”42
ThebroadcastofsectionsofstatementsmadebyRussiangovernmentofficialswas
featuredalongsideaseriesofbackgroundreportsthatsoughttocontextualizetheevent.In
aneight-minutevideosegmentcorrespondentPavelPchelkinaskedwhobenefitsfromthe
crashofMH17.43Thesegmentisamontageofconspiracytheorizingthatbeginsfromthe
premisethatthereisanefariouspurposebehindthedowningoftheaircraft:“Whilethe
perpetratorsofthetragedyarenotyetknown,andtheinvestigationhasnotyetbegun,
seeminglyunrelatedeventsindifferentpartsoftheworldinthepastandthepresentare
liningupinapicturethatcanexplainmuch.”44Thedowning“happenedjustastheEU
summitbeganinBrusselstodecidethefateofsanctionsagainstRussia.Andsuddenlya
planeofMalaysianairlinescrashesnearDonetsk.Thesmokecomingoutofthecrashed
airplanehadnotyetdieddownwhenPresidentPoroshenkoconfidentlystated:thisisa
terroristact.”ThesegmentfeaturesexcerptsfromaninterviewwithMikhailDelyagin,
directoroftheInstitutefortheProblemsofGlobalization.Hedeclared:
It'sclearthatthisisagreatwaytoblameeverythingontherebelmilitia.Theyshot
downpassengerairplaneatanaltitudeof6.5kilometers.That'sgreat.Itmeansyou
[therebels]havethistechnology[Buk],andnowwe'llblameallonyou,andatthe
sametime,onRussia.Therefore,Ithink,itisapureprovocationbytheUkrainian
Nazijunta.ButtherealmastermindsareAmericans,because,I’msorry,but
Poroshenko,orKolomoiskyaren’tcleverenoughforthis.45
BeforetheEUsummit,itisalleged,themajorityofEUstateswereagainsttougheconomic
sanctions,especiallyintheenergysector,sincethesewerepainfulforEurope.TheUnited
States,however,soughttobreakapartEuropefromRussianenergysupplies.Mere
symbolicsanctionsagainstRussiadidnotserve“theplansoftheAmericanstrategists,who
arebehindalltheactionsofKievaftertheFebruarycoup.”Thus,asanotherfeaturedexpert
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(KonstantinSimonovDirectorGeneraloftheNationalEnergySecurityFoundation)
explained:
Itiscertainthat,whathappenedinUkraineisanattempttoseparateRussiafrom
Europe.Infact,theU.S.planistopreventaunionbetweenEuropeandRussia,and
instead,makeEuropedependexclusivelyontheUnitedStates.Theenergysectoris
themostimportantpartofourrelationswithEurope.Ifthislinkiscut,thenof
course,wewillhavedifficultiesinotherdirectionsaswell.46
Thisrupturehadnothappened,however,whilerebelforceswereprovingdifficultforKiev
toeliminate.StrategistsinKievandWashington,thus,“urgentlyneededapropaganda
breakthroughthatcouldradicallychangethesituation.”ThedowningofMH17,however
accordingtoSimonov,allowedtheAmericanstosaytotheEuropeansthatRussiawasa
terriblecountryandthattheDonetskRepublicwaslikeabranchoftheevilempire.The
narratorPchelkinexplained:“Thefurtherthestorydevelops,themoretheexpertssuspect
thatthespecialservicesarebehindthetragedy,andclearlynottheUkrainianspecial
services.Thisisthesignatureofaslightlydifferentcountry.It'sanAmericansignature.”
ThisclaimwasthenconsolidatedbyavideomontageofCubanmissilecrisisimagesand
documentquotationwhichsuggestedthattheUSsoughttocreateaverysimilar
catastropheasapretexttoinvadeCuba.ThatPutinwasreturningfromaBRICSsummit
thatverydaywasseenassignificant.AccordingtoPchelkin,theirrefusaltousethedollar
asareservecurrencywasacatastropheforthatcurrency.Washington,Pchelkinconcluded,
cannotacceptRussia’sgrowingroleintheworld,itsenergydealswithIraqiKurdistanand
Argentina.Russiawasnowaseriousglobalplayerand“alltheevidencesuggeststhat
WashingtonisreadyforthemostradicalmeasurestodiscreditRussia.”
ThisconspiratorialmodeofreasoningwasafeatureofsimilarreportsonPerviy
Kanalinthedaysfollowingthedisaster.TheUkrainiangovernmentwascondemnedforits
desiretoimmediatelypronounceseparatistrebelsguiltyofthedowning.DeputyDefense
MinisterAnatolyAntonovstressedthat“politicalattemptstoplayonthetragedy,to
immediatelyidentifytheperpetrators”wereincorrect.47Helistedtenquestionsthatthe
Ukrainianmilitaryhadtoanswer,questionsthatinsinuatedthatthegovernmentinKiev
washidinginformationtoserveitsinterests.Alongvideoreport(12:43)on20Julyasked
viewersthe‘whobenefits?’questionagain(implicitlycueingconspiratorialreasoning),
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witheyewitnesstestimonyandvideoframedbytheassertionthatexpertsweresureitwas
apremeditatedprovocationbecauseUkraineneededtodiscredittherebels.48Itwas“no
coincidence”thatPoroshenkosubsequentlycalledontheworldtoconsidertheDonetsk
andLuhanskrepublicsasterroristorganizations.Thereportreviewedclaimsmadeby
Ukraineabouttheincidentandpresentedargumentsthat(supposedly)refutedthese
claims:releasedrebelrecordingsclaimingMH17weredoctoredvoicefiles;formerminers
andnowrebelswereincapableofoperatingsuchadvancedweaponsastheBuk;neithera
BuksystemnoranyotherRussianmilitaryequipmentcrossedthestateborderinto
Ukraine,accordingtoastatementbytheRussianDefenseMinistry.Thisreportfeatureda
cut-outstyleanimationofajetbeingtracked(vectorwavegraphics)andthenattacked(red
dotvectorgraphics)bytwoUkrainianBukweaponsystems.Vremyaviewers,inother
words,wereshownUkrainianmissilesdestroyingMH17.49
Inanotherlongvideosegment(8:22)thatsamenightentitled“ConspiracyTheory–
whotriestousethepainofothersfortheirownpurposes”correspondentPavelKrasnov
arguedKiev’squickjudgementontheMH17disasterand“confidenttoneleadsto
suspicion.”50"Thisindicatesthattheyshotitdownandastheyrealizedthattheyshotit
down,nowtheyaretryingtogetoutofthissituationquickly,"explainedatestpilot(Ruben
Yesayan)interviewedforthesegment.Re-usingvideoclipsofinterviewswithSimonovand
Delyagin,Krasnovexplainedthat“thescriptofthisgamewaswrittenalongtimeago,and
accordingtoit,RussiawasobligedtogetinvolvedintheUkrainianconflict,givingtheWest
anexcusetoshowheraredcard.”InUSpolitics“theyknowalltoowellhowtoorganize
provocationswiththebenefitforthemselves.”ColinPowell’s“whitepowdertube”forgery
attheUnitedNations(justifyingUSinterventioninIraq),theGulfofTonkinincident,the
efforttoblameCubaforattackingapassengerairline,eventhelatenineteenthcentury
blamingofanexplosionontheUSshipMaineontheSpanish:allareexamplesofUS
provocationstolaunchwars."116yearsago,theAmericansbegantheirexpansionintothe
worldwithprovocation,killed250oftheircitizensandfoughtunderthecallof“Remember
theMaine,"explainedDelyagin.TheWestrememberstheshootingdownoftheSouth
KoreanBoeingin1983butnottheUkrainiansshootingdowntheSiberiaAirjetin2001.
Now“thecatastrophehasrepeated,andUkraine,apparently,willagaindenyits
involvement,evenifthereisundeniableevidence.”
15
Inthesereportsweseeexamplesofthesixthemesidentifiedabove.Theshockof
MH17isquicklyassimilatedintopre-existingblamenarrativesthroughaseriesof
strategies.CapacityandintentareprojectedontoUkraine.The2001analogypointsto
Ukrainianculpability.Aseriesof“experts”present“facts”thatsteerblameawayfrom
RussiaandtheDonbasseparatists.Ananti-Americanbias,longstandingfromSoviettimes,
ismobilizedasavailableheuristictolocateMH17withinarichhistoryofUSforeignpolicy
provocationandperfidy.ThesestrategiesreinforcethegeneralRussiangovernmentlineon
theUkrainianconflict:itisallthefaultofUkrainiannationalistsandtheirAmericanbackers.
TheFirst100Hours:Inter’sPodrobnosti
Interhasanhour-longeveningnewsprogramcalledPodrobnosti(Details)at20:00.
Itsbroadcastof17Julybeganwithphonereportsfromcorrespondents.51Theinitialvisual
signatureofthedowningwasanamateureyewitnessvideoofaplumeofblacksmokein
thedistance.ThebroadcastnotedGirkin’ssocialmediaboastofdowninganAn-26andalso
citedsocialmediapostsbyresidentsoftheTorezareanotingthemovementofmilitary
vehicles,includingaBukmissilesystem,throughthearea.52Anaviationexpert(Sergey
Plotnitsky)intervieweddeclaredthataBuksystemcouldhavebroughtdowntheaircraft
ascouldhaveanair-to-airmissile.LaterinthebroadcasttheprogramreportedPresident
Poroshenko’sstatementataUkrainianNationalSecurityCouncilmeeting:"Thisisnotan
accident,notacatastrophe,butanactofterrorism."Attheendofthebroadcast,the
programdisplayedasocialmediaphotographofaBukmovingthroughwhatitidentifiedas
thetownofSnezhnoe.Theanchordeclaredthat,accordingtotheUStelevisionstationCNN,
WashingtonhadirrefutableevidencethatthemissilethatshotdowntheBoeingwasfired
fromtheterritoryofRussianFederation.
Thefollowingnight’sbroadcastfeaturedconsiderablevisualfootageofthe
wreckageoftheairplane,andofgrievingrelativesintheNetherlandsandelsewhere.53
Humanbodypartswereblurredinthefootagebutthisblurringandthescatteredpersonal
effectsofthevictimswerevisualsignaturesofthelossoflifeinvolved.Someofthefootage
wasshowninsilence.ThebroadcastfocusedonaudiorecordingreleasedbytheUkrainian
SecretService(SBU)ofrebelleaders,describedas“terrorists”inallbroadcasts,discussing
thetransferoftheBuk.Itfeaturedashortsegmenton“absurdRussianpropaganda,”the
16
attempttofakeasocialmediaentrybyoneofthepassengersconfirmingthatUkrainian
fightersarenexttotheBoeing.54Reportsfromvariousworldcapitalshighlightedthe
internationalreactionamongstpoliticianstothetragedy.Inter’scorrespondentin
AmsterdamnotedtheresignationofaUSjournalistSarahFirthfromRT(theKremlin’s
Englishlanguagebroadcaster)inprotestagainsteditorialdirectionsonhowtocoverMH17
(“thetruthismoreimportant”).InareportonGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,the
correspondentwasopenlycriticalofherconciliatorypolicytowardsRussia.55Areport
fromWashingtonhighlightedthecondemnationoftherebelgroupsbyUNSCambassadors
fromFranceandtheUnitedStates.56AreportfromMoscowbeganwiththeanchorasking
Inter’sMoscowcorrespondentDmitryElovskyif“allRussiansbelievetheofficial
propaganda?”ThereportfilmedMoscovitesplacingflowersattheDutchEmbassyto
expresstheirhorrorattheeventandsympathiesforthedead.AmongthemwasPutin-
criticandhistorianAndreiZubovwhoexpressedgreatembarrassmentatwhatwas
happeninginUkraine.AnotherfigureinterviewedwastheRussianwriterViktor
ShenderovichwhocommentedonhowtheMH17tragedyhad“spawnedmonstrousand
senselesslies.Russiacontinuestobeinatailspin,indenialofreality.”57
Subsequenteveningbroadcastschronicledtheconsiderableinternational
condemnationofVladimirPutinintheEuropeanandUSpress.TheLondoncorrespondent
showedthebluntheadlinesintheBritishtabloidpressaboutthetragedy,suchastheDaily
Mail’sheadline“PutinKilledMySon.”AreporthighlightedtheRussianpropagandaeffort
todivertblameforthetragedyontoUkraineeventotheextentofchangingtheresponsible
partyfromself-proclaimedDonetskPeople’sRepublic“terrorist”tothe“Ukrainianmilitary”
ontheevent’sWikipediawebpage.Correspondentsnotedthestrongstatementsof
condemnationfromvariousprominentpoliticians(newBritishDefenseMinisterMichael
Fallon,USSenatorJohnMcCain).Reportschronicledtheallegedeffortofrebelleadersto
collecttheplane’sblackboxestogivethemtoMoscownottheOSCE.Accusationsthat
rebelswererestrictingaccesstothecrashsiteandmanipulatingevidencewerealso
broadcast.
Russia’sPublicRelationsOffensiveonMH17
17
On21JulytheRussianMinistryofDefenseheldapressconferenceonMH17forthe
internationalmediainitsnewoperationstheater.Thereweretwopresentationsatthe
pressconference.ThefirstwasbytheheadoftheMainOperationsDirectorateofthe
RussianArmedForcesGeneralStaffAndreiKartapolov.58Hispresentationwasan
elaborationonthealreadyexistinginformationstrategyoftheRussianmilitaryonMH17,
namelytopresentso-calledobjectivedataandtoposeinterrogatingquestionsofthe
Ukrainianmilitary,inferringitsguiltintheprocess.Ukraine,heasserted,hadthreeorfour
airdefensebattalions,equippedwithBuksurface-to-airmissilesystems,intheareaonthe
dayofthecrash.“Whatwasthepurposeofdeployingsuchalargesetofairdefense
systemsnearDonetsk?”KartapolovpresentedaseriesofimagesthatinferredthatUkraine
wastheresponsiblefordowningMH17.OnewasanimageofMH17withintherangeofthe
nearbyUkrainianBuksystems.Anotherwasacollectionofblackandwhitesatellitephotos
showingUkrainianairdefensesystemsandabatteryofBukmissilesinthevicinity.The
finaltwoimagesshowthesamelocationwiththeBukmissilesdeployedonthedayofthe
crash,andthenanemptyfieldsomedayslater.AchartofUkrainianradaractivitydesigned
toshowitsintensityon17Julywasalsopresented.Allofthis‘circumstantialevidence’was
designedtobolstertheclaim,whichKartapolovdoesnotstatedirectly,thataUkrainian
Buksurface-to-airmissileshotdownMH17.
KartapolovthenbuiltasimilarcircumstantialcaseforasecondtheoryofUkrainian
guilt,namelythatMH17wasdownedbyaUkrainianSu-25jet.HestatedRussia’s
monitoringsystemregisteredthepresenceofaUkrainianjet,“probablyaSu-25,climbing
andapproachingtheMalaysianpassengeraircraft.”Kartapolovaskedrhetorically:“What
wasamilitaryaircraftdoingonarouteintendedforcivilianplanes?”Tocorroboratethis
inferenceofUkrainianguiltKartapolovturnedthepresentationovertotheheadofthe
MainStaffoftheRussianAirForceLt.Gen.IgorMakushevwhopresentedafour-minute
flightmonitoringvideotakenbytheRussianairtrafficcontrolcenterinRostov.Thevideo
showedMH17descentbutalsoanew“airborneobject”thatappearsatthespotofthe
aircraft’sdestruction(thisishighlightedwithacursorintheunfoldingvideoimages).Air
trafficcontrolrequestedinformationontheobjectbutwasunabletogetanyreadingonits
parameters,“mostlikelyduetothefactthattheaircraftwasnotequippedwithasecondary
radartransponderwhichistypicalofmilitaryaircraft.”Makushevthenexplainedthatthis
18
aircraftsubsequentlyhoveredovertheMH17crashsite(this,inactuality,wasawidely-
scatteredseriesofsites).Ukraineclaimednoneofitsmilitaryaircraftwereinthatareaat
thetimeofthecrash.“Asyoucansee,”Makushevconcluded,“thatisnottrue.”
KartapolovendedthepressconferencebychallengingtheUStoreleasethedatait
claimedprovesthattherebelsshotdownMH17.“Theinformationwehavepresentedhere
isbasedonreliableandobjectivedatafromvarioustechnicalsystems.Thesamecannotbe
saidfortheunsubstantiatedaccusationsagainstRussia.”Russia,hestateddefinitively,“has
neverprovidedthemilitiawithBuksurface-to-airmissiles.”
ThepressconferencewascoveredextensivelyonVremyathatnightandsubsequent
nights.AninitialvideosegmentweavedtogetherthetechnospeakoftheMinistryof
Defenseofficialswithagroundlevelwitness(Tatyana)whoassertedshesawtwoplanes
thatday.“Therewerethreeexplosions,threeclaps.Wethoughttheyarebombingus.Then
oneplanefell,burned,andthesecondwenttotheside,toDnepropetrovsk."59One
interviewedexpert,SergeyGrinyaev,GeneralDirectoroftheCenterofStrategicStudiesand
Forecasts,speculativelyblendedthetwotheoriesinferringUkraine’sguiltintoone.The
MalaysianplanewasshadowedbyfighterjetsandaftertheBuksystemhadunsuccessfully
firedatit,“thefighterjetsdestroyedthealreadydamagedplanesothatthescriptwouldgo
accordingtotheoriginalplan.”Inafollow-upsegmentthenextevening,thepress
conferencewasdescribedasproviding“clear”and“irrefutableevidence”linkingUkraineto
theMH17tragedy.60VariousexpertsexplainedthatUkraine’snon-closureoftheairspace
indicatedtheyknewtheseparatistsdidnothaveanyBuksystems,thatitispossibleto
disguisealaunchsite(Ukrainecouldthenblametherebelsforthemissiletheylaunched),
andthateitherofthetwoRussiantheoriesofthedowningwerestrongpossibilities.A
sevenminuteplusvideosegmentbycorrespondentMikhailAkinchenkoconcluded:
“Summarizingallthefacts,someexpertsbelievethattheMalaysianplanewassentenced.
Militaryaircraftintheairand"Buk"onthegroundonlyduplicatedeachother.”Yet
juxtaposedtothisblameallocationbyexpertswasadeclarationofnon-judgement:“Sofar,
onecanonlyspeculateaboutthedetailsofthetragedy,soit'stooearlytodraw
unambiguousconclusions.”61
TheRussianMinistryofDefensepressconferencewasignoredonInter’s
Podrobnostion21July.Yet,strangely,manysalientimagesfromthepressconference
19
appearedfor42secondsasbackgroundtoastandupreportbytheMoscowcorrespondent
(DmitryElovsky)onPutin’smidnightaddressthenightbefore.62Thebroadcastwas
dominatedbyinternationalreactiontotheMH17tragedy.TheBerlincorrespondent’s
reportwasonGermannewspaperreportingonthepossibilityofsanctions.63International
correspondentsreportedstatementsbyPresidentObamawhodeclaredthatitwastimefor
RussiatotakeresponsibilityforthetragedyandbyBritishPrimeMinisterCameronthat
“thewholeworldiswatchingPutin.”64
Thefollowingevening(22July)ashortsegment(1:34)onPodrobnostibriefly
addressedoneRussiantheoryaboutMH17.65Inittheprogramanchordeclaredthateven
RussianexpertsrejectedtheKremlin’sversionoftheaircraft’sdestruction.Theevidence
wasaninterviewcliptakenfromRBCTV(Russia’sonly24hourbusinesschannel)inwhich
anaviationexpert(VadimLukashevich)pronouncedtheclaimthataSu-25couldshoot
downaplaneatanaltitudeof11,000metersasnotserious.66Likethe“generalswithmany
stars”duringtheSovietUnionjustifyingthedowningofKoreanAir007in1983,
Lukashevichdeclaredthat“theyhavetheirexplanationsbutthetruthwilleventuallycome
out.”TheanchorthenreportedthatRussianpilot-heroSergeyNefedov(picturedwitha
medal)termedtheDefenseMinistry’sversioncompletenonsensedesignedforinternal
Russianconsumptiononly.67Inthisway,Russian“experts”wereusedtorefuteRussia’s
MH17storyline.
SubsequentPodrobnostireportsonthefollowingeveningschronicledthematerial
efforttoremovehumanremainsfromthecrashsiteaswellasinternationaldiplomacyat
theUnitedNationsandelsewhere.68AnaudiorecordinginwhichVostokbattalionleader
AlexanderKhodakovskyadmitedthatseparatistsreceivedandreturnedaBukmissile
systemwasthesubjectofabriefvideosegmentaweekafterthecrash.69Nofeature
segment,however,directlydeconstructedthetwoRussiantheoriesonMH17.Thesewere
ignoredordismissedaspropagandaandlies.InsteadthestatementsofWesternleaders,
andtheWesternpress,wereusedtoaffirmandamplifytheUkrainiangovernment’s
position.70
Table1summarizesthedifferentblameallocationnarrativespresentedbyPerviy
KanalandInterintheweekfollowingtheMH17tragedy.Inthesenewsreportswecan
tracehowtheeventanditsimagescometobeenvelopedbyanalogiesandstorylinesthat
20
PerviyKanal Inter
WhoseistoBlame? Ukrainianmilitaryforces RussiangovernmentPro-Russianseparatists
InitialSalientFacts RebelsonlyhaveMANPADS.UkrainemovedBUKtoarea.Russianjetsnotflyinginarea.
Girkin’ssocialmediaposting,subsequentlydeleted.
InitialPrivilegedSourceontheEvent
RebelsourcesindicatingUkrainianSu-25shotitdown.
CNNreportingphotographofBUKinrebelarea.
InitialConspiracyTheory
RealtargetPutin’splane
AnalogousEvent AccidentaldowningofaTu-154inOctober2001
SovietAirForcedowningofKoreanAirin1983
RussianMoDTheory EitherSU-25shotitdownorUkrainiancontrolledBUK.
‘Russianpropaganda’
ControllingForce UnitedStates Putin;theKremlin
GeopoliticalMeaning USwantstoblockRussia’sgrowthandpowerininternationalaffairs.
RussiawantstoruinUkraine
Table1;ContrastsinblameallocationaccordingtoPerviyKanalandInter
assimilateditintopre-existingcommonsense.OnRussiantelevisionMH17isanother
exampleofUkrainetryingtoshirkitsinternationalresponsibility(likewithSiberiaAirlines
inOctober2001).Politicalauthorityfiguresandchosentelevision“experts”suggestthat
theUnitedStateswasbehindevents,usingprovocationstofurtheritsgeopoliticalinterests.
ConspiracyandagnotologygotogetherintheMinistryofDefensepressconference.To
IntertheMH17downingwasanotherexampleofitsvictimizationatthehandsofRussia
anditsterroristproxiesintheDonbas.BothWesternandRussianauthorityfiguresand
“experts”attesttotheirculpability.ThematerialityoftheMH17downing–videofootage,
socialmediaimages,blackboxes,destroyedfuselage,deadbodies,secretrecordingsand
variousinvestigations–hasextendeditslifeasaneventintothepresentday.Itremainsan
ongoingsubjectofcontestationbetweenRussia,Ukraineandtheinternationalcommunity.
III.PUBLICOPINIONATTITUDESONWHATHAPPENEDTOMH17
GiventhefactthatUkrainianandRussiantelevisionconsistentlybroadcast
powerfullydivergentstorylinesonwhatcausedthedowningofMH17throughout2014,it
21
isworthexaminingwhatimpactthis‘informationwar’hadontheattitudesofordinary
residentsinpartsofUkraine,Crimeaanddefactostateterritoriesdirectlysupportedbythe
Russianstate.Howimportantweretelevisionviewinghabitsinshapinghowpeople
explainedwhyMH17crashed?Whatroledidsocio-demographicfactors,likenationality,
education,genderandincome,orotherfactorslikepoliticalorientation,politicaltrustand
locationhaveinshapepeople’sunderstandingofMH17?
InthelastweeksofJuly2014,theindependentRussianpollingagencyLevada
CenteraskedrespondentsinthesixlargestRussiancitiesaboutMH17.Thepollingfirm
methodologyfollowedtheirusualrandomsamplingstrategybutmorethanoneresponse
couldbegiventothequestion(thoughonlyasmallnumberofintervieweeschosethis
option).Levadaasked:"HaveyouheardabouttheJuly17crashoftheMalaysianplanein
theskyoverUkraineand,ifso,why,inyouropinion,didthisplanecrashoccur?”71Note
thatthewordphrasingisnotadirectquestionaboutwhoistoblame.Insteaditposeda
questionaboutcausalitythatmayormaynotinvolvetheallocationofblametoparticular
actors.Thatmostresponsestranslateintoblamingparticularactorsisitselfanimportant
finding.Morethan4in5respondentsexplainedthecrashbyblamingtheUkrainian
military(46%toananti-aircraftmissileoftheUkrainianarmyand36%toaUkrainianair
forceplane).OnlysmallnumbersattributedittotheDonbasmilitia(3%),aterroristattack
(2%),anaccidentonboard(1%),piloterror(1%),andtheRussianmilitary(1%).Other
diverseexplanationswereprovidedby6%ofthesamplewhile16%indicatedthatthey
couldnotgiveareasonforthelossoftheplane.72DenisVolkovofLevadaCenternotedthat
94%ofRussiansgettheirnewsfromtelevisionandthatthishascreatedadifferentreality
where"therearedifferenttheories,differenthistory,differentimages,whichequatethe
Ukrainianforceswithfascists."73TheseLevadaratiosaredisplayedinFigure1for
comparisontoourresultsfortheother5sites.74
22
Figure 1: Proportional responses to questions about the shooting down of MH-17 in the sample sites (December 2014) and in major Russian cities (July 2014) by major nationalities. The question was framed as a closed one in December while the July survey by Levada center (Moscow) in Russia offered respondents an open option. The December survey used the answers from the July survey as prompts.
FivemonthsaftertheLevadapoll,weaskedthesamequestiononMH17infiveother
regions-insixoblastsofSoutheasternUkraine(hereafterSE6),inCrimeaandinthethree
Russian-backed'defacto'statesofAbkhazia,SouthOssetiaandTransnistria.Thequestion
wasoneofabout125questionsaskedinawide-rangingstudyoftheimpactoftheMaidan
protests,theCrimeanannexationandtheDonbaswar.Asuiteofsocio-demographicand
ideologicalquestionsenablescrosstabulationoftheanswers.75TheMH17explanation
questionallowsustoprobetherelativeimpactoftelevisionhabitsoncausalattribution
whileatthesametimeconsideringtheeffectsofsocio-demographicandideological
predictivefactors.Mostimportantly,thesimultaneousadministrationofthesamesurvey
questionnairesinthefivesitesinlateDecember2014allowsustoestimatethedifferential
effectsoftelevisionstationaccess,post-Sovietexperiencesandlocalcontextualpolitics.
TheMH17catastrophewasacatalyzingeventinwideningthedivergencesbetweenthe
23
post-MaidanUkrainiangovernmentanditsWesternsupporters,ononeside,andthePutin
governmentanditsattendantregimesinCrimeaandthedefactorepublics,ontheother.
TheEurasiandefactostatesaretheproductsofseparatistwarsoftheearly1990s
entangledwiththecollapseofSovietpower.Inthepost-Sovietindependentstatesof
GeorgiaandMoldova,anti-governmentforcesinthesmallautonomousregionsofAbkhazia,
SouthOssetiaandTransnistriaeventuallyprevailedwiththebackingofRussia.(Wedonot
considerNagornyKarabakhhere).RussiahasrecognizedAbkhaziaandSouthOssetiaas
independentstateswhilepublicopinioninTransnistriaisfavorabletowardsannexationto
Russia.Inallthreedefactostates,thevastmajorityofresidentswantRussiantroop
currentlystationedtheretoremainpermanentlyoruntilthesituation'stabilizes.'76All
threearestronglydependentonRussiaforeconomicaidanddirectsubsidiesoftheirstate
functions.
SurveyDesignandPredictors
WesurveycontestedregionsthatincludeRussian-supporteddefactostates,the
annexedCrimeanrepublicandtheUkrainianterritoryadjacenttotheactivewarzone
oblastsintheDonbas.Thetimingofthesurveywascrucialaseventsonthegroundwere
shiftingquicklyanddiplomaticnegotiationswereunderwayregardingaceasefireforthe
warintheDonbas.Thistimingrequirementmeantthatthesurveybeconductedatthe
sametimeinallsitesaspotentiallynewshockeventscouldleadtodifferentresponsesif
thesurveywasdelayedinoneormoreregions.Thesimultaneoussurveywasmanagedby
KIIS(KyivInternationalInstituteofSociology)forSE6UkraineandbytheLevadaCenter
(Moscow)forCrimea,Abkhazia,SouthOssetiaandTransnistria.Coordinationbetweenthe
twopollingcompaniesandsharingofthequestionnairewhilefollowingthewell-designed
samplingproceduresallowedthecompletionofthesurveysinthelasttwoweeksof
December2014.RespondentsinSE6UkrainewereofferedachoiceofeitherUkrainianor
RussianandelsewherewereinRussian.Allinterviewswerein-person,door-stepformat
bylocalinterviewers,andfollowedstandardinterviewethicalprotocols(explanationofthe
research,anonymizedresponses,rightofrefusal,etc).Thetotalnumberofrespondents
was4833(SE6Ukraine2033,Abkhazia800,TranistriaandCrimea750each,andSouth
Ossetia500)withtheresponseratevaryingfrom41%inSE6Ukrainetojustover75%in
24
Crimea.Withanaveragetimeofcompletionof52minutes,thesurveycontained127
individualquestionsorganizedintothreesections:demography(29questions),a
geo/politicssection(80questions),andregionspecificsection(about8questions).The
marginsoferrorintherespectivesamplesrangefrom2.5%to4.5%.
Ourselectionofpredictorswasbasedonfourexpectationsofhowrespondents
wouldanswerthequestionabouttheMH17crash.Ourgeneralapproachasindicatedby
theemphasisontherespectiveTVbroadcastsistounderstandhowtelevisionhabits
influenceblameattributionbyrespondents.Tohighlightthisfactor,weneedtocontrolfor
otherpossibleexplanations,whichareincludedaspredictorsinthemodelthoughwedo
notgivethemsubstantiveattention.First,weconsideredsocio-demographicbackgrounds
andincluded8predictorsinthemodelfromthiscategory.Self-definednationalityas
RussianandUkrainianwerebothincludedsincethesetwogroupsaremostdirectly
involvedintheprivateandpublicdiscussionaboutthefateofMH17.Weexpect
educationalstatustoberelatedtointerestinandinformationabouttheeventsowe
includedbothloweducationalstatus(lessthanhighschool)andhigheducationalstatus
(universitydegreeorhigher)inthemodel.Wealsoconsideredagetobeakeyelement-
age35andunderisthepost-Sovietgenerationwhileage65andoveraretypically
pensionerswhospentmostoftheirlivesinSoviettimesandformanyofwhomthepost-
Sovietperiodhasbeenatimeofeconomicdifficulty.Weincludedgenderasacontrol
variablesinceotherworkhasshownmentakestrongerstandsonpositionsregarding
conflictandperceivedexternalaggression.77Weincludeanincomeeffectusingthe
category"wecanonlyaffordfood"andworseasthemeasureoflowincome.Typically,
individualsinthislattercategoryaregenerallylessinterestedingeopoliticalandpublic
affairsandmoreconcernedaboutdailymaterialneeds.
Asecondsetofpredictorsmeasurespoliticalandideologicalorientations.Two
variablesdirectlyconcerninterestininternationalpolitics(weuse"notinterested"asour
measure)andself-placementona10-pointideologicalscalefromfar-lefttofar-right(we
use"leftofcenter"withascoreof1-4asourmeasure).InrelatedworkontheCaucasus
anddefactostates,wehaveseenthatattachmenttotheself-identifiedethnicgroupisan
importantindicatorofarangeofopinionsaboutothergroupsandaccordinglyweincludeit
here("Veryproud"isourmeasureona"veryproud"to"notatallproud"scaleasall
25
groupsshowhighlevelofethnicpride).SinceVladimirPutinisthefaceofRussianforeign
policy,weaddanindicatorofsupportforhispoliciesasakeypredictor("Yes"tothe
questionthataskediftherespondenttrustedthePresidentofRussia,VladimirPutin).
Weconsiderattitudesabouttheongoingconflictoverbordersandsovereigntyin
Ukraineandearlierconflictsinthedefactostatesasimportantelementsinformingaview
aboutthefateofMH17.InanApril2014surveyin8oblastsinSoutheasternUkraine,
includingthewarzonesofLuhanskandDonetskoblasts,KyivInternationalInstituteof
Sociologyhadaskedrespondentsiftheywerewillingtoresistinvaders.Intheirsample,
21%were"willingtoputarmedresistance"toanyRussiantroopsenteringUkraine.78We
repeatedthisquestionandusea"yes"answerasanindicationofstrongpatrioticbeliefs.
Whilethesurveysettingsareinmultiplecountries,allofthemarepotentiallyfuturewar
zonesduestounsettledborders,andterritorialpreferencesandclaims.Weaddan
interactivetermofUkrainiansand"willingnesstofight"toaccountfortheparticularwar
circumstancesinUkraineatthetimeofthesurvey.
Athirdsetofpredictorsrevolvedaroundpost-Sovietmaterialcircumstances.Has
theendoftheSovietUnionhelpedorhurtrespondentsandwhatisthebalancebetween
materialandpoliticalpreferences?Asinmanyofourpreviousstudies,thewell-used
questionabouttheSovietlegacy("wastheendoftheSovietUnionarightorawrong
step?")underliesmanyotherbeliefsaboutthepasttwenty-fiveyearsofeconomicand
politicaldislocations.79WeexpectthosewhobelievethattheendoftheSovietUnionwas
correcttobemorefavorablydisposedtocurrentterritorialarrangementsandwealsoadd
avariablespecificallyaskingaboutfutureeconomicprospects("Willyoulivebetterintwo
yearstime?")tomeasureeconomicoptimism.Athirdmeasureinthiscategoryof
explanationsasksrespondentstoevaluatematerialinterestsagainstterritorial
arrangements.Itaskedrespondentstoagreeordisagreewiththestatementthat"Itdoes
notmatterinwhichcountryIliveaslongasIhaveagoodsalaryandpension".Our
variable"goodsalary"indicatesthosewhoagreeorstronglyagreewiththissentiment.
Ourfourthcategoryofpredictorsismostcloselyconnectedtothemainargumentof
thepaperaboutthedivergentconspiratorialnatureoftheexplanationsforthecrashof
MH17.Itcomprisesfivemeasuresoftelevisionwatchinghabits.Weidentifyrespondents
whowatchmorethan20hoursoftelevisionperweek,thosewhotrusttelevisionnewsand
26
thoseforwhomtelevisionistheirmaininformationsource.Wealsoidentifythosewho
watchtelevisionfromRussiabroadcasters.Finally,weaddedaninteractivetermof
Ukrainiansand"trusttelevisionnews"toidentifythoseUkrainianswhowouldbemost
likelytoaccepttheexplanationcomingfromthePoroshenkogovernment.Lastly,weadda
dummyvariable-residenceinSE6Ukraine-tocharacterizerespondentswhodonotlivein
theRussianinformationspace,thatis,Russiancontrolled(Crimea)orRussiandominated
(defactostates)sites.
SummaryStatistics
OurquestionrepeatedLevadaCenter’sJuly2014questionsoanswersaredirectly
comparableacrosstheregionsofinterest.Thecomparativepercentagesaredisplayedin
Figure1.ThemaincomparisonisblameattributedtoUkrainianforcesversusthosetothe
DonbasmilitantsanditsRussiansupportersandthemultiplecategoriesarecollapsedinto
7majoroptionsfordisplay.Becausetherearebigdifferencesbetweenthenationalities,
theratiosaredisplayedforthemaingroupsineachlocation.Onthegraphs,theSE6
Ukrainesample(bothRussiansandUkrainians),GeorgiansinAbkhaziaandTatarsin
Crimeaaretheexceptionssinceelsewhereaplurality(ArmeniansinAbkhazia)or
majoritiesoftherespectivenationalitiesplacetheblameonUkrainianforcesforthe
aircraftdowning.Valuesmostsimilartotheover-whelmingblameattributedtoUkrainian
forcesbyurbanRussiansinLevada’sJuly2014surveyareseeninTransnistria(allthree
groups),RussiansinAbkhazia,OssetiansandamongRussiansinCrimea.Exceptionally,
GeorgiansinAbkhazia(20%)andUkrainiansintheSE6partofthecountry(justover30%)
attributesignificantblametoRussianforces.OnlyinSE6Ukraine(bothnationalities)and
'others'inTransnistria(amixedgroup)showmorethan10%totheDonbasmilitias.
Itcouldbearguedthatasking“whywasMH17destroyed”isapotentiallysensitive
politicalquestion,onewithamanifest‘politicallycorrect’answer.Whetherthiswasthe
caseornotisdifficulttodetermine.Whatwecansayisthat,inkeepingwithourfindings
onotherpotentiallysensitivequestionsintheseBlackSea-Caucasuslocations,groupswho
feelmarginalizedoralienatedintheirregionalsettingsshowhighratiosof'don'tknow'
answersoutofanabundanceofcaution.Theextremeratios-overone-fifthofGeorgian
respondentsinAbkhazia,RussiansinSE6Ukraine(over40%),UkrainiansinSE6Ukraine
27
(30%),andone-thirdofTatarsinCrimea-arehigherthantheone-fifthratioinRussia.Itis
alsopossiblethatmanyoftherespondentsofRussiannationalitythatgenerallysupport
theKremlinpositionbelievedthatitwasRussianforcesorDonbasmilitantswhoshot
downtheplanebutdecidedagainstrevealingtheiropiniontointerviewersbecauseitdid
notaffirmtheirusualgeopoliticalpreferences.80
Bypoolingthe5samples,wecangaininsightsintothefactorsthatledpeopleto
cometotheirdecisionaboutwhowastoblameforthedowningofMH17.Byincludinga
predictorinthemodelthatdefinedtheresidenceofrespondentsaseitherinSE6Ukraine
ornot,wecanseetheimportanceofthecontextualfactorthathasbeenarguedby
geographersasanelementthatcaninfluencerespondents'attitudes.81Wedrop
respondentswhorefusedtoanswerthequestionaboutMH17;wealsodroprespondents
whosepersonalcharacteristicsarenotavailablesincetheyeitherrefusedtoanswera
specificquestionorprovideda'don'tknow'response.These‘missingcases’resultin3339
respondentsinthestatisticalmodels.
ModelofBlameAttributionfortheCrashofMH17:TheRoleofTelevision
Wehavesummarizedthedramaticallycontrastingblameattributionsputoutby
RussianandUkrainianbroadcastersintheaftermathoftheshootingdownofMH17.Inthe
statisticalmodeling,wekeepthefocusontheroleoftelevisionbyhighlightingits
contributiontothereasonsrespondentsgaveforthedestructionoftheplane.Wechose
multinomiallogitasourpreferredmodelingapproachsinceitallowsexaminationof
circumstanceswithmorethantwodiscreteoutcomes.Inthesecases,thechoiceofa
comparatorisimportantforinterpretationofthecoefficients.Wecollapsethenumberof
blameoptionstofivebycreatingthecomparatorfromcombiningthetwomoreneutral
options-"itwasanaccident"and"itwastheresultofaterroristact."Respondentswho
chosetheseoptionsarenotspecificallyoptingforRussian,UkrainianorDonbasmilitant
forcesbutneitherdotheyavoidtheascriptionofblamebychoosingthe'don'tknow’
option.Inthemultinomiallogitmodeling,wepresentthefourcomparisons-Ukrainian
forces(airforce,armyorvolunteergroups),Russianforces,Donbasmilitantsandthe
"don'tknows"totheaccident/terroristactcomparator.
28
WepresentagraphicaldisplayoftheresultsinFigures2-5ratherthanthe
coefficientsforthe26variables.Weconvertthevaluesfromthemultinominallogistic
regressionintoaveragemarginaleffectsforclarityofdisplayandidentificationofthe
significantfactorsinpredictingthechoiceofblameattribution.Marginaleffectsare
calculatedfrompredictionsofthemodelthatwasfitforeachofthe26predictorsby
averagingtheirvaluesandintegratingovertheremainingvariables.Averagemarginal
effectscanbeinterpretedastheprobabilityforaunitchangeinthevariableofinterest
holdingtheothervariablesconstant.Standarderrorsarerepresentedbytheverticallines
andwhenthe95%errorestimatescrossthezeroline,thepredictorinthatmodelisnot
significant.Allofthemodelingwascompletedbythe'mlogit'commandinSTATA14.
Theinterpretationoftheaveragemarginaleffectsisstraightforward.Forexample,
inFigure2,theaveragemarginaleffectforthe"trustPutin"predictoris.196withasmall
standarderrorestimate.ItishighlysignificantandindicatesthatthosewhotrustPutinare
19.6%morelikelytoblameUkrainianforcesforshootingdownMH17comparedtothose
whodonottrustPutin,holdingothervariablesconstant.
Figure 2: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for blame to Ukrainian forces for theshooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges of the estimates
29
Weconsiderthedemographicvariablesascontrolsinthisanalysisanddonotdevotemuch
attentiontotheircoefficients.Fewofthesevariablesshowanysignificantrelationshipwith
anyofthefourblameattributions.Itshouldbenotedthattherearesignificantnumbersof
RussiansandUkrainiansinTransnistriaandCrimea,aswellasinSE6Ukraine.Russians
mightbeexpectedtohavedifferentinterpretationsaboutthecauseoftheMH17crash
becauseofdifferentialexposuretolocaltelevisionstations,aswellasbroadcasts
emanatingfromMoscow.Butthereisinsignificantvariationamongthesesub-populations
bystudysite.Onthefourgraphsoftheaveragemarginaleffects,therelativepositionsof
theestimatesforbothRussiansandUkrainiansareverysimilar.
ForblameattributiontoUkrainianforces,twopredictorswithoppositeeffects
standoutonFigure2.Significantmoreblame(19.6%)isattachedtoUkrainianforcesby
thosewhotrustVladimirPutinwhilesignificantlessblame(23.3%)isdirectedtothese
forcesbyresidentsinSE6Ukraine(comparedtothosewholiveinothersurveysites).
GiventhedebateaboutthecausesoftheMH17planecrashandthekeyrolethatPutin
playedinitsimmediateaftermath,thesevaluesareexpected.Inallbutthelastmodel,that
forthe'don'tknow'blamecategory,residencyinSE6Ukraineishighlysignificant(i.e.
livingwithinaUkrainianstateinformationsphere).Thatsurveysiteisgenerallyclosestto
thelocationoftheMH17disasterinDonetskoblast,certainlyinperceptualspaceaspartof
Ukraineonwhoseterritorytheplanecamedown;thetelevisionandothermediain
UkrainegaveagreatdealofattentiontothiseventandtheongoingwarintheDonbason
theborderofourSE6surveysiteoblasts(Kharkiv,Odesa,Mykolaiv,Zaporizhzhia,Kherson
andDnipro).Theeffectofthislocationalfactorisvisibleinalloftheblameattributions
(Ukrainian,DonbasorRussianforces),aftercontrollingfortheindividualpersonal
characteristicsoftherespondents.Twosmallbutsignificantnegativeeffects(forthosewho
watchmorethan20hoursoftelevisionperweekat1.7%andforUkrainianswhotrustTV
newsat4%)showlessascriptiontoUkrainianforcesandtwosmallsignificantpositive
effects(forthosewhowouldforciblyopposeaninvaderbyforceat3.9%andforthosewho
trustTVnewsat5.2%)arealsovisibleinFigure2.
AtthetimeofthesurveysinDecember2014,neithertheDutchSafetyBoardnorthe
JointInvestigativeCommitteehadreleasedreportsontheirfindings.Yetcircumstantial
30
evidencewasgrowingthatsuggestedthataBuksurface-to-airmissilesystemtransported
fromRussiatoterritorycontrolledbytheDonbasseparatistswastheculpritindowning
MH17.82TheDonbasmilitantsdidnotreceivemuchattentioninoursurveys,except
amongsttherespondentsinSE6Ukraine(Figure1).Themultinomiallogitmodelforthis
blameattributionindicatesfivesignificantpredictorsbuttheeffectsaresmallasseenin
Figure3.ResidentsinSE6Ukraineshowa6.5%greaterpositiveblamefortheDonbas
militantsandthosewhobelievethattheendoftheSovietUnionwasarightstep(agroup
concentratedintheSE6Ukrainiansample)showapositiveeffectof3%.Incontrast,those
whotrustTVnews(minus3.1%),thosewhowatchRussiantelevisionstations(minus
4.7%)andthosewhoare'veryproud'oftheirnationalityatminus3.5%alsoshow
significanteffects.Therelativelackofsignificanteffectsforthismodelisnotsurprising
sincethepublicdebateovertheplightofMH17hadfocusedoneitherRussianorUkrainian
guiltanddivisivelinesdidnotdevelopasreadilyamongthepopulationsofoursurveysites
abouttheDonbasmilitants.
Figure 3: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for blame to Donbas militant forces for the shooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges of the estimates
31
BlameonRussianforcesachievedahighrateat31%amongthosewhoself-identifytheir
nationalityasUkrainianinSE6Ukraine.Elsewhere,theratiowasonlysizableat22%
amongGeorgiansinAbkhazia.TheresultsofthefirstmodelforUkrainianforcesare
mirroredinFigure4withthevalues(minus15.1%)oftherespondentswhotrustPutinand
thosewholiveinSE6Ukraine(atplus16.5%)thereverseofthemodelofUkrainianblame
inFigure2.OthernegativevaluesareseenforthosewhosetrustTVnews(minus7.8%),
thosewhowatchRussianTVstations(minus3.7%)andthosewhosaythattheyarenot
interestedinpolitics(minus4.5%).UkrainianswhotrustTVnewsare5.2%morelikelyto
blameRussianforcesandsimilarpositivevaluesareseenforoptimists(thosewhoexpect
tolivebetterin2years)at2.7%andforthosewhothinkthattheendoftheSovietUnion
wasarightstepat8.5%.Onthisblameoption,thedividesamongthesurveysampleisas
clearasitwasfortheUkrainianforces,thoughnowthevaluesarereversed.
Figure 4: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for blame to Russian forces for the shooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges of the estimates
32
Thefinalmodelwasnotexpectedtoyieldmuchclarityonpolitical,nationality,TV
watchingandideologicaldividessincea'don'tknow'answercouldhavemanydifferent
provenances.IntheresultsdisplayedonFigure5,thoseofbothRussianandUkrainian
nationalityshowagreaterlikelihoodofpickinga'don'tknow'answerthanothergroups,a
functionoftheirprobablereluctancetoattributeblameintheirrespectivelocalesof
tension(forRussiansinSE6UkraineandforUkrainiansinTransnistriaandCrimea).Those
whowatchRussiantelevisionstationsaremorelikelytogivea'don'tknow'answerat6%,
perhapsasaresponsetotheaccumulatinginformationaboutthecausesofthecrashatthe
timeofthesurveywhichwasincreasinglypointingthefingerofblameonRussian-backed
forces.Thiscumulatingevidencecontradictstheirgenerallypro-Kremlinpositionsanda
'don'tknow'answerisonewaytoresolvethisasymmetry.Lesslikelytogivea'don't
know'answerwerethosewhothoughttheendoftheSovietUnionwasarightstep(minus
8.7%)andthosewhowerewillingtofightinvadersatminus6.1%.
Figure 5: Average marginal effects of individual predictors for “don’t know” answers for the shooting down of MH-17, compared to the respondents who gave “terrorism” or “an accident” as an explanation. Red circles indicate significant differences from the comparator and the vertical lines indicate the error ranges
33
Ouranalysisofthesurveysshowsthatblameattributionwasdrivenmorebytelevision
habitsthananyotherfactor.Ofcourse,habitsareingrainedandnowdictatedincreasingly
byaccesstobroadcastsfromacrosstheborderasUkraineandRussiatrytoconstrain
informationtocertainreliablesourcesthatsticktothegovernmentline.Residentsinthe
region(theBlackSeaareamorebroadly)areincreasinglylivingin'differentworlds'
despitethesharedprovenancesoftheirterritoriesintheformerSovietUnionandtheir
traditionalinter-nationality,languageandeconomicties.
CONCLUSION
ThedowningofMH17wasapivotaleventintheUkrainecrisisof2014,amoment
whereitsviolencebecomeworldwidenews.AwaveofrevulsionintheWestprovided
popularimpetusfortheimpositionofnewsanctionsonRussianindividualsandentitiesby
theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesinJuly2014.MH17isaneventthatcontinuesto
hauntRussia’sforeignpolicyandtheseparatistsitsupportsinUkraine.InJanuary2017,
theUkrainiangovernmentfiledacaseagainsttheRussiangovernmentintheInternational
CourtofJusticefortheillegalannexationofCrimeaandforitsfinancingofactsofterrorism
ontheterritoryofUkraine.AmongtheactsenumeratedisthedowningofMH17.
PreliminaryhearingsonthecasebeganinMarch2017anditisnotlikelytobedecidedfor
years.83InJuly2017,justbeforethethirdanniversaryoftheMH17downing,theDutch
ForeignMinistrydeclaredthatsuspectsinthatdowningwillbetriedinaDutchcourt.The
evidencegatheredbytheJIConthedowningofMH17canbeusedtoprosecutethose
responsiblebutitmuststandupincourt.84
MH17isoneamongaseriesofshockevents–Euromaidan,theannexationof
Crimea,theOdesatragedy--thatareatthefulcrumofamultimedia‘informationwar’
betweenRussiaanditsallies,ononeside,andUkraine,theEuropeanUnionandtheUS,on
theother.85Thatdiscursivestruggleischaracterizedbymanyofthemechanismswehave
examinedhere–affectiveimagery,thepromotionof‘partisantruths,’thepoliticizationof
authorityandexpertise,agnotologyanddisinformation,otheringthroughconspiracy
theorymongering–andithasproducedaself-affirmingbubbleofunderstandingthatis
insulatedfrominconvenientmaterialfacts.Inthispaper,wehaveshownhowordinary
34
residentsinasetofstudysitesacrosstheBlackSearegionappeartobeguidedintheir
understandingofmajorgeopoliticalevents,likethedestructionofMH17,bythetelevisual
info-spherewithinwhichtheylive.Dataanalysisalsosuggeststhatpeopletendtofollow
thenarrativesofthepoliticalleadershipstheytrust.Thehigh'don'tknow'ratiosseenin
somelocationsarelikelyacombinationofgenuineconfusionaboutthereasonsforthe
plane'sdestruction(itselfacreatedcondition),tacticalavoidanceofapoliticizedtopic,and
decisionsbysometonotaffirmblamenarrativescontrarytotherespondentsgeneral
(geo)politicalorientation.
Giventheirsignificanceininternationalaffairs,scholarsneedtopaymoreattention
toshockeventsinconflicts,thestorylinesdisseminatedbypoliticallycontrolledtelevision
networkstomanagethemeaningoftheseevents,andthereceptionthesestorylines
receivebydifferentaudiences.Thisisparticularlyimportantgiventhemanifest
fragmentationoftraditionalmediaandpoliticsinmanyWesternstates,whichsome
commentatorshavelinkedtotheinfluenceof‘filterbubbles’–informationflowsshapedby
algorithmsusingpastpreferences--anda‘post-truth’politicsdrivingtheBREXITand
Trumpcampaignsof2016.‘Post-truth’geopoliticsisnot,unfortunately,aRussian
monopoly.Itisaperniciousfeatureofourcontemporarygeopoliticalcondition.
NOTES1DutchSafetyBoard,CrashofMalaysianAirlinesflightMH17,Hrabove,Ukraine,17July2014,October2015,availableat:https://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/uploads/phase-docs/1006/debcd724fe7breport-mh17-crash.pdf2Seehttps://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/mh17-vliegramp/presentaties/presentation-joint/3ForavideolayingouttheDutchInvestigatingCommittee’sevidencesee:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf6gJ8NDhYA.4RolandOliphantandSenayBoztas,'MH17Investigation:Moscowdenounces'biased'investigationasprosecutorssaymissilecamefromRussia,’DailyTelegraph,26September2016,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/28/mh17-investigation-prosecutors-to-reveal-where-missile-that-down/5ForthefulltextoftheannouncementinRussianandEnglishsee:http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-150-ukrainian-troops-describe-grad-rocket-attack-from-russia/#33916Muchofthe‘digitallabor’usedbyunitslikeBellingcatisunpaid.SeeMattSienkiewicz,‘OpenBUK:DigitalLabor,MediaInvestigationandtheDowningofMH17,’CriticalStudiesinMediaCommunication,32(2015),pp.208-223.BellingcatlateralliedwiththeWashington
35
DCbasedadvocacyorganization,theAtlanticCouncil.ForavideorecountingtheirMH17investigativeworksee:https://www.facebook.com/DFRLab/videos/1747134938634385/7OnthecompetingnarrativesvyingtoframethemeaningoftheUkrainecrisisseeRichardSakwa,FrontlineUkraine:CrisisintheBorderlands,(London:I.B.Tauris,2015);GerardToal,NearAbroad:Putin,theWestandtheContestforUkraineandtheCaucasus(NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress,2017)andSamuelCharapandTimothyJ.Colton,EveryoneLoses:TheUkraineCrisisandtheRuinousContestforPost-SovietEurasia(London:Routledge,2017).OnthemediadimensionseeMikhailSuslovandMarkBassin(eds.)Eurasia2.0:RussianGeopoliticsintheAgeofNewMedia(Lanham,MD:LexingtonBooks,2016)andJulieFedor(ed.)RussianMediaandtheWarinUkraine(Stuttgart:IbidemPress,2015).8Ontheimportanceofnarrativetopolicymakingsee,interalia,MaartenA.Hajer,ThePoliticsofEnvironmentalDiscourse(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1995)andRonaldKrebsNarrativeandtheMakingofUSNationalSecurity(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2015).OnstorylinesandthecriticalstudyofgeopoliticsseeGearóidÓTuathail,‘Theorizingpracticalgeopoliticalreasoning:thecaseoftheUnitedStates’responsetothewarinBosnia,’PoliticalGeography,21(2001),pp.601-628andJohnO’Loughlin,GearóidÓTuathailandVladimirKolossov,‘Russiangeopoliticalstorylinesandpublicopinioninthewakeof9–11:acriticalgeopoliticalanalysisandnationalsurvey,’CommunistandPost-CommunistStudies,37(2007),pp.281-318.9SeeKemalKurspachic,PrimeTimeCrime:BalkanMediainWarandPeace(WashingtonDC:USInstituteofPeacePress,2003);LaraNettelfieldandSarahWagner,SrebrenicaintheAftermathofGenocide(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2014);EricGordy,Guilt,ResponsibilityandDenial(Philadelphia:UniversityofPennsylvaniaPress,2013).10OnobservingtheSrebrenicabysatelliteseeLisaParks,CulturesinOrbit:SatellitesandtheTelevisual(Durham:DukeUniversityPress,2005).11SeeMcKenzieWarkVirtualGeography:LivingwithGlobalMediaEvents(Bloomington,IN:IndianaUniversityPress,1994).12SeeMatthewSparke,‘OutsidesInsidePatriotism:TheOklahomaBombingandtheDisplacementofHeartlandGeopolitics’inRethinkingGeopolitics,eds.GearóidÓTuathail,SimonDalby(London:Routledge,1998),pp.198–223;GearóidÓTuathail,‘PlacingBlame:MakingSenseofBeslan,’PoliticalGeography,28(2009),pp.4-15;andReeceJones,BorderWalls(London:ZedPress,2012).13FortheRussiancaseseeDavidSatter,TheLessYouKnow,theBetterYouSleep:Russia’sRoadtoTerrorandDictatorshipunderYeltsinandPutin(NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress,2016).ForacritiqueseeJohnMueller,Overblown:HowPoliticiansandtheTerrorismIndustryInflateNationalSecurityThreats,andWhyWeBelieveThem(NewYork:FreePress,2006).14SeeFrancoisDebrix,GlobalPowersofHorror:Security,Politics,andtheBodyinPieces(London:Routledge,2016)andElizabethAnker,OrgiesofFeeling:MelodramaandthePoliticsofFreedom(Durham,NC:DukeUniversityPress,2014).15SeeJamesDerDerian,'The(S)paceofInternationalRelations:Simulation,Surveillance,andSpeed,'InternationalStudiesQuarterly,34(1990),pp.295-310.16OnaffectinthecreationofemotionseeLisaFeldmanBarrett,HowEmotionsareMade:TheSecretLifeoftheBrain(NewYork:HoughtonMifflinHarcourt,2017).OnthedebateoveraffectivetransmissionandcontagionseeMargaretWetherell,AffectandEmotion:A
36
NewSocialScienceUnderstanding(ThousandOaks,CA:Sage,2012).OnaffectandgeopoliticsseeJosephMasco,TheTheaterofOperations:NationalSecurityAffectfromtheColdWartotheWaronTerror(Durham,NC:DukeUniversityPress,2014).17ForErnestoLaclau,‘dislocations’areeventsthatcannotbesymbolizedbyanexistentdiscursiveorder.’ForadiscussionseeDavidHowarth,Discourse(Buckingham,UK:OpenUniversityPress,2000),pp.109-111.18Thistermiscontentiousandisassociatedwith‘prospecttheory’inpsychologyandeconomics.SeeDanielKahneman,Thinking,FastandSlow(NewYork:Farrar,StrausandGiroux,2011).19Onthepsychologicalpitfallsof‘commonsense’,seeDuncanJ.Watts,EverythingisObvious:HowCommonSenseFailsUs(NewYork:CrownBusiness,2011).20ArkadyOstrovsky,TheInventionofRussia(NewYork,Viking,2015).Onself-censorshipaslearnedadekvatnost(correctinstincts)withinRussiantelevisionproductionseeElisabethSchimpfosslandIlyaYablokov,‘CoercionorConformism?CensorshipandSelf-CensorshipamongRussianMediaPersonalitiesandReportersinthe2010s,’Demokratizatsiya,22(2014),pp.295-312.21See,forexample,PeterPomerantsevandMichaelWeiss,'TheMenaceofUnreality:HowtheKremlinWeaponizesInformation,CultureandMoney,'TheInterpreter,22November2014;http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/The_Menace_of_Unreality_Final.pdf.22NaomiOreskesandErikConway,MerchantsofDoubt(NewYork:Bloomsbury,2010)andAndrewWilson,VirtualPolitics(NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress,2005).23CassSunsteinandAdrianVermeule,‘ConspiracyTheories:CausesandCures.’JournalofPoliticalPhilosophy,17(2009),pp.202-227;LauraJones,‘TheCommonplaceGeopoliticsofConspiracy,’GeographyCompass,6(2012),pp.44-59.24IlyaYablokov,‘ConspiracyTheoriesasaRussianPublicDiplomacyTool:TheCaseofRussiaToday(RT),’Politics35(2015),pp.301–315.25AndrewBarry,MaterialPolitics:DisputesAlongthePipeline(Malden,MA:WileyBlackwell,2013)andSarahWagner,ToKnowWhereHeLies:DNATechnologyandtheSearchforSrebrenica’sMissing(Berkeley,CA:UniversityofCaliforniaPress,2008).26See:http://www.russiansearchtips.com/2015/01/top-10-russias-largest-media-2014/27OnRussianmediaandtheimportanceofVremya,seeArkadyOstrovsky,TheInventionofRussia(NewYork:Viking,2015).28TheownershiphistoryofInteranditsplaceintheUkrainianmedialandscapeiscomplex(ironicallyitispartlyownedbyPerviyKanal).ForanintroductionseeTarasKuzio,Ukraine:Democratization,Corruption,andtheNewRussianImperialism(SantaBarbara:PraegerSecurityInternational,2015),especiallyp.391.OnUkrainianmediaownershipseeDmytroKorol,YuriyVinnychukandDianaKostenko,‘Informatsiinazbroia–komunalezhat’ukraiinskiZMI,’Insider,9December2015,http://www.theinsider.ua/infographics/2014/2015_smi/vlasnyky.html29BBCNews,‘Ukrainiansiegeof'pro-Russian'InterTVstudiosends,’6September2014,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-3728863030ElizavetaGaufman,SecurityThreatsandPublicPerception:DigitalRussiaandtheUkraineCrisis(London:Palgrave,2017).ForoneofmanyMH17conspiracyvideoproducedbyRussianmediaseehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arNfVvUnKC8.Onthedebunking
37
ofRussiantelevisionclaimsbysocialmediaseeVitalyShevchenko,‘WebUsersDebunkRussianTV'sMH17Claim,’BBCMonitoring,15November2014,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-3006437431DutchSafetyBoard,CrashofMalaysianAirlinesMH17,p.26.32Fortheseinitialreports,thesecondofwhichquotesDNRrepresentativessayingtheydonothaveweaponsthatcouldhitaplaneatsuchheight,see:http://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37495-boing_777_malayziyskih_avialiniy_poterpel_krushenie_v_donetskoy_oblastiandhttp://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37496-boing_777_malaziyskih_avialiniy_ruhnul_na_territorii_ukrainy_nedaleko_ot_posyolka_snezhnoe33See:https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37497-295_chelovek_pogibli_segodnya_v_aviakatastrofe_v_donetskoy_oblasti34https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37498-postupaet_informatsiya_chto_uzhe_naydeny_oblomki_boinga_i_neskolko_desyatkov_tel_pogibshih35https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37499-v_aeroportu_amsterdama_soobschili_chto_reys_do_kuala_lumpura_byl_otpravlen_bez_zaderzhek36See,forexample:https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37503-redaktor_zhurnala_natsionalnaya_oborona_i_korotchenko_prokommentiroval_aviakatastrofu_boinga_77737https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-17/37525-interfaks_veroyatnoy_tselyu_ukrainskoy_rakety_mog_byt_samolet_prezidenta_rossii38https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37575-na_mesto_krusheniya_boinga_777_pribyli_nablyudateli_obse39http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/4624340https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37578-chto_proizoshlo_v_nebe_nad_donetskoy_oblastyu_raznye_versii_aviakatastrofy_boinga_77741https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37585-v_nyu_yorke_prohodit_ekstrennoe_zasedanie_soveta_bezopasnosti_oon42RemarksbyAmbassadorVitalyChurkin,UnitedNationsSecurityCouncil,S/PV.7219,18July2014.43https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37587-kak_politiki_mogut_ispolzovat_katastrofu_na_ukraine44Ibid.45Ibid.46Ibid.47 https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-19/37636-minoborony_rf_kommentiruet_stremlenie_kieva_naznachit_vinovnyh_v_katastrofe 48https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-20/37670-komu_vygodno_kiev_i_opolchentsy_obvinyayut_drug_druga_v_katastrofe_boinga_77749Theanimationsegmentis25secondslong,from6:48to7:13.50https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-18/37587-kak_politiki_mogut_ispolzovat_katastrofu_na_ukraine
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51http://podrobnosti.ua/news-release-list/2014/7/17/20/0/(fullbroadcast17July2014).52http://podrobnosti.ua/985209-terrorist-girkin-fakticheski-vzjal-otvetstvennost-za-sbityj-boing-777-na-sebja.html53http://podrobnosti.ua/news-release-list/2014/7/18/20/0/(fullbroadcast18July2014).54http://podrobnosti.ua/985378-stavka-na-lozh-rossija-pytaetsja-opravdatsja-za-sbityj-boing-fejkami-video.html55http://podrobnosti.ua/985381-merkel-prinjala-reshenie-o-rasshirenii-sanktsij-protiv-rossii.html56http://podrobnosti.ua/985384-v-hode-zasedanija-sovbeza-zvuchali-rezkie-zajavlenija-v-storonu-rossii.html57http://podrobnosti.ua/985385-moskvichi-vosprinjali-avariju-boinga-kak-lichnuju-tragediju-video.html58ForavideoofKartapolov’spresentationsee:https://www.rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-plane-russia-ukraine/.Thetranslationthatfollowsusesthatprovidedforthisvideo.59https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-21/37747-minoborony_rf_obnarodovalo_svoi_dannye_otnositelno_aviakatastrofy_malayziyskogo_boinga60https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-22/37828-eksperty_aktivno_kommentiruyut_dannye_ob_ektivnogo_kontrolya_obnarodovannye_nakanune_minoborony_rf61ForavideosegmentimmediatelyaftercriticizingtheUnitedStatesseeGrigoriYemelyanov:https://www.1tv.ru/news/2014-07-22/37829-zamyat_dlya_yasnosti_reaktsiya_kieva_i_vashingtona_na_ob_ektivnye_no_neudobnye_dlya_sebya_dannye62http://podrobnosti.ua/985716-videoobraschenie-putina-k-natsii-snimali-vpopyhah-video.html63http://podrobnosti.ua/985712-germanskie-smi-prizyvajut-ostanovit-putina.html64http://podrobnosti.ua/985710-kemeron-objasnil-putinu-chto-za-nim-sledit-ves-mir.html65Seehttp://podrobnosti.ua/985880-eksperty-obse-vernutsja-v-torez-za-telami-i-oblomkami-samoleta-video.html(22July)andhttp://podrobnosti.ua/985881-rossijskij-ekspert-nazval-glupostju-versiju-kremlja-o-gibeli-boinga-777-video.html(23July).66LukashevichdoesnotstateitinthisclipbutthemaximumceilingheightofaSu-25is5.6km.Becausetheplanesareold,mostwouldstruggletoevengainthisaltitude.67Seealso:http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/22/russian-hero-pilot-accused-the-russian-defense-ministry-of-lying-about-the-boeing-777/#arvlbdata68Forexample,see23Julyreport:http://podrobnosti.ua/986027-vse-tela-zhertv-katastrofy-boinga-777-otpravjat-v-gollandiju-do-pjatnitsy-video.html69http://podrobnosti.ua/986203-hodakovskij-v-intervju-reuters-priznal-chto-Buk-vernuli-v-rossiju.html(24July2014).
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70Foranexamplesee24JulyreportfromtheWashingtoncorrespondentDmitryAnopchenko:http://podrobnosti.ua/986186-ssha-nanosit-udar-po-rossijskomu-beznesu.html71TheRussiantextwas:СЛЫШАЛИЛИВЫОКРУШЕНИИ17ИЮЛЯМАЛАЗИЙСКОГОСАМОЛЕТАВНЕБЕНАДУКРАИНОЙ,ИЕСЛИДА,ПОЧЕМУ,НАВАШВЗГЛЯД,ПОГИБЭТОТСАМОЛЕТ?Wehaveusedaparaphraseoftheinterviewquestionforthisarticle’stitle.WearewellawarethatMH17waslessaplane“crash”(whichsuggestsaccidentallyhittingthegroundoranotherobject)thanashoot-down(purposefuldestructioninflight).72Fortheresultsandbriefanalysis,seehttp://www.levada.ru/2014/07/30/katastrofa-boinga-pod-donetskom73QuotedinAlecLuhn,‘MH17:VastMajorityofRussiansbelieveUkrainedownedplane,pollfinds,’TheGuardian30July2014.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/30/mh17-vast-majority-russians-believe-ukraine-downed-plane-poll74InJulyandAugust2014Levadaaskedamoredirectblameallocationquestion(whichwechosenottouse)innationalsurveyswithanoptionthatincludedtheUnitedStates.SeeLevadaCenter,‘WhodownedtheMalaysianBoeinginEasternUkraine?’3October2014,http://www.levada.ru/en/2014/10/03/who-downed-the-malaysian-boeing-in-eastern-ukraine/75FordiscussionofthesurveyseeJohnO’Loughlin,GerardToalandVladimirKolosov,‘TheRiseandFallof‘Novorossiya’:ExaminingSupportforaSeparatistGeopoliticalImaginaryinSoutheastUkraine,’Post-SovietAffairs33(2017),pp124-144.76GerardToal,JohnO’Loughlin,‘FrozenFragments,SimmeringSpaces:ThePost-SovietDeFactoStates,’inEdwardHollandandMatthewDerrick,eds,QuestioningPost-Soviet,(WashingtonDC:WilsonCenter,2016),pp.103-125,availableathttps://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/questioning_post-soviet.pdf.77Forasummaryofgenderdifferences,seeTomW.Smith,'ThePolls:GenderandAttitudestowardViolence,'PublicOpinionQuarterly48(1984),pp.384-396.78KyivInternationalInstituteofSociology(KIIS)'TheViewsandOpinionsofSouth-EasternRegionsResidentsofUkraine,April2014,'http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=news&id=258 79‘FrozenFragments,SimmeringSpaces’80Foraconsiderationofhowpoliticalpartisansgetpastawkwardfactsabouttheirleadersto‘convenienttruths’seeDrewWesten,ThePoliticalBrain(NewYork:PublicAffairs,2007).81AndrewLinkeandJohnO’Loughlin,‘Reconceptualizing,Measuring,andEvaluatingDistanceandContextintheStudyofConflicts:UsingSurveyDatafromtheNorthCaucasusofRussia.’InternationalStudiesReview17(2015),pp.107-125.82See,forexample,‘MH17:SourceoftheSeparatistBuk.ABellingcatInvestigation,’8November2014,https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Origin-of-the-Separatists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf.Thegrowingbodyofevidencewasconsistentlycontested,whenacknowledged,byRussiantelevision.83RolandOliphant,‘UkrainesuesRussiainInternationalCourtofJusticefor'financingterrorism,'DailyTelegraph,6March2017,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/06/ukraine-sues-russia-international-court-justiceforfinancing/
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84TheJIChaveidentifiedapproximatelyonehundredindividualsinvolvedinmovingtheBukweaponsystemintoUkraine.ThedegreetowhichUkraineisresponsiblefornotclosingairspaceovertheeasternconflictzoneisamatterofdebate.ForareviewoftheapplicableinternationallawseeMarkGibney,‘TheDowningofMH17:RussianResponsibility?'HumanRightsLawReview15(2015),pp.169-178.85HenryHale,OxanaShevel,OlgaOnuch,“BeliefFormationintheFogofWar:ACaseStudyofthe2014OdesaTragedy.”Manuscriptunderreview.