Anticipatory Governance in Phoenix

Anticipatory Governance in PhoenixAnticipatory Governance in Phoenix

Sustainable Cities Network Conference, October 20th, 2010

Arnim Wiek, Braden Kay, Lauren WithycombeSchool of Sustainability, Arizona State University

Tricia Gomes City of Phoenix, Planning Department

Challenges and Opportunities for Cities in the 21st Century

• Budget constraints can catalyze creative partnerships

• Less resources for the government can encourage community-wide responsibility sharing

• Lack of development presents opportunity to examine practices and plan for the future

• Growing environmental concerns cause need to address the impact city has on future generations

2121stst Century Cities Seizing Opportunity Century Cities Seizing Opportunity

plaNYC: Goals for 2030

Land: Clean up all contaminated landEnergy: Cleaner sourcesTransportation: Improve travel timesAir: Cleanest air of any big city in USWater: Improve water networkClimate Change: Reduce emissions by more than 30%

Sustainability Transition Plan is:

Goal-orientedData-drivenCo-created with communityModel for 21st century cities

http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/html/plan/plan.shtml

Transitions Are HappeningTransitions Are Happening

New York, Detroit, Charlotte, ...

Innovations in Phoenix – Visionary and tangible

New partnerships across sectors and groups

Sustainable Anticipatory GovernanceSustainable Anticipatory Governance

Current State:City of PHX


Visions:Sustainable PHX






Future Scenarios:City of PHX




Future Scenarios:City of Phoenix


Sustainable Development Strategies




Sustainability Transition Strategies


Intervention Point

A Guiding Framework for ChangeA Guiding Framework for Change

1. Change needs reality Current State

2. Change needs direction Sustainability

Vision

3. Change needs anticipation Scenarios

4. Change needs strategies Transition

Strategies

Stakeholder Engagement in Stakeholder Engagement in Anticipatory GovernanceAnticipatory Governance

• From consultative/extractive to interactive public engagement

• Different types and intensities of public engagement

• Benefits include: Increased ownership of issues and challenges

Public acceptance of policies negotiated beforehand

• Barriers include: cost of engagement, time, training

City of Phoenix’ Transition PathwayCity of Phoenix’ Transition Pathway

Community Engagement

Sustainability Initiatives

Tackling future challenges

Anticipatory Governance in ActionAnticipatory Governance in Action





















Intervention Point

A Vision for a Sustainable PhoenixA Vision for a Sustainable Phoenix

• Structured visioning approachStructured visioning approach Conflicting values identified and resolvedConflicting values identified and resolved

Individual preferences negotiatedIndividual preferences negotiated

Environmental quality, social justice, and future generations consideredEnvironmental quality, social justice, and future generations considered

• Based on more than 1000 vision statementsBased on more than 1000 vision statements

• 3 hour event with 120 participants from across the City3 hour event with 120 participants from across the City

“When I get up in the morning I can check my blackberry to find out when the next train comes to take me to work. At work, I log into my zip car account to reserve my 3 pm meeting and return the car near my meeting. At 6 pm I take my car to the LRT to head downtown to meet my daughter and grandson for

dinner and play at civic park.”

The Current State of PhoenixThe Current State of Phoenix

• Complete picture of the City and how it functions as a systemComplete picture of the City and how it functions as a system Not a “laundry list” but a Not a “laundry list” but a systemsystem of indicators of indicators

Analysis of problems and their root causesAnalysis of problems and their root causes

• Data-drivenData-driven Having the right data for sustainable anticipatory governance!Having the right data for sustainable anticipatory governance!

Current State Indicator:

Walkability

Current State Data:

Phoenix scored 28th out of the 40 largest US cities in Walkscore’s rating of US cities for walkability.

Calculating walking scores based on the proximity of basic amenities, Phoenix neighbourhoods averaged a

score of 50 out of 100.

Alternative Scenarios of Phoenix Alternative Scenarios of Phoenix

• We cannot predict the future, so we anticipate possible futures

• Scenarios contrasting the visionScenarios contrasting the vision

• Scenarios that consider the consequences of Scenarios that consider the consequences of inactioninaction

• Test strategies against scenarios to make them more robustTest strategies against scenarios to make them more robust

Phoenix Behind the Times

Thriving Businesses,Struggling Workers

Federal GovernmentMandates Sustainability

Car-dependency,Persistent “Brown Cloud”

Unique, Vibrant Village Cores, Inter-village Tension

Business

Governance

Mobility

Urban Cores

Projections Indicators

Scenario

• Between now and 2050: what needs to be done? Between now and 2050: what needs to be done?

• Co-created: Developed with stakeholders, shared responsibility for achieving the vision

• Sets benchmarks: 2050 is a long way away, how Sets benchmarks: 2050 is a long way away, how do we know we are on the right track?do we know we are on the right track?

• Galvanize support: Phoenix has a plan to make Galvanize support: Phoenix has a plan to make the city the best it could possibly be…the city the best it could possibly be… Based on what citizens want Based on what citizens want

Considering future generations and the environmentConsidering future generations and the environment

Anticipating and avoiding undesirable futuresAnticipating and avoiding undesirable futures

Iterations for reflection and modificationIterations for reflection and modification

Transition Strategies for PhoenixTransition Strategies for Phoenix

Opportunities Offered by Opportunities Offered by Anticipatory GovernanceAnticipatory Governance

• A shared frameworkA shared framework For interdepartmental or intergovernmental cooperationFor interdepartmental or intergovernmental cooperation

That the public can understand and be a part ofThat the public can understand and be a part of

• Future-orientationFuture-orientation

Short-term planning explicitly linked to long-term goalsShort-term planning explicitly linked to long-term goals

• Addresses challengesAddresses challenges

Grounding “big picture” goals in current policies and practicesGrounding “big picture” goals in current policies and practices

Anticipatory Governance in Phoenix

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