Anthony D. Phillips, David A. Call, and Jill S. M. Coleman Department of Geography
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Transcript of Anthony D. Phillips, David A. Call, and Jill S. M. Coleman Department of Geography
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Flash Flooding Across the Southern Appalachians: An Abbreviated Climatology with Forecasting Methods
and Techniques
Anthony D. Phillips, David A. Call, and Jill S. M. ColemanDepartment of Geography
Ball State University
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Analyze the spatial and temporal extent of flash floods across the southern Appalachian Mountains
Create a hydroclimatology using credible reports Examine the influences of regional topography and
environmental characteristics (soil type, land use, etc) on the spatial distribution of flash floods
Gather information on the synoptic and mesoscale environments conducive to flash flooding across the region
Research Focus
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Residents of the southern mountains are at greater risk due to:– Steep, complex terrain– Rapid accumulation of precipitation– Competition with mountain streams for roads, bridges,
housing, etc.– Mountaintop removal
The Flash Flood Threat
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Previous hydroclimatological research has been limited to individual NWS WFOs (Gaffin and Hotz, 2000; Stonefield and Jackson, 2009).
Thorough, regional analysis will provide a better understanding of the extent of flash floods
Southern Appalachian Mountains:– Mountainous areas south of Mason-Dixon Line (~39.7° N)– Locations within the USGS Appalachian Highlands
physiographic division; namely the Appalachian Plateau, Valley and Ridge, and Blue Ridge provinces
Study Area: Southern Appalachians
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Study Area: Southern Appalachians
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Data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center– Storm Data from 1950 to 2010
Focuses on events after the Modernization and Restructuring (MAR) of the NWS in the mid-1990’s– Storm reports and verification– Abbreviated climatology: January 1, 1996 to December 31,
2010 Storm Data reports listed as either “flash flood” or
“flash flooding” Multiple events with similar/exact dates and locations
were consolidated into a single event
Data and Analysis
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Results: Events per County
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Results: Flash Flood Density
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Results: Flash Flood Density
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Results: Event Frequency
July 2007
July 2003
Frequency of events per year Noticeable variations, especially
between drought (’99, ‘07) and non-drought years (‘03)
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Results: Event Frequency
Number of events that occurred during each month Frequency of events increases dramatically starting
in May– Substantial decrease in October
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Results: Event Frequency
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Results: Event Frequency
Events per time of day divided into 3-hr increments Number of events increases during afternoon/early
night hours
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Results: Flood Severity Index
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Results: Flash Floods per FSI
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Results: Significant Flash Floods (FS3-FS5)
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Results: Injuries and Fatalities
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Results: Fatalities and Explanations
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Future research will include examining the synoptic and mesoscale environments favorable for flash flood events across the southern Appalachians– Forecasting methods specific to the region
Additional spatial statistics such as average nearest neighbor and Geographically Weighted Regression– Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) will examine
the relationships between prior flash flood events and other environmental characteristics across the region
Expansion of the study area to include the eastern United States
Upcoming Research
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4,938 unique flash flood reports from 1996 to 2010 71 fatalities and 64 injuries As expected, greater number of events during warm season months
and during afternoon/overnight hours Higher fatality rates in regions with higher mean percent slope Future work will include:
– Additional statistical tests– Flash flood forecasting techniques
Results will assist meteorologists and hydrologists in forecasting flash flood events
For more information:Anthony Phillipshttp://[email protected]
Summary