Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

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Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Crystal City, VA 2/21/2014 CPC Climate Outlooks For Spring & Summer 2014

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CPC Climate Outlooks For Spring & Summer 2014. Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Crystal City, VA 2/21/2014. “FLASH DROUGHT” OF 2013 Frozen soils (Upper Midwest) into April Very wet Spring - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

Page 1: Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

Anthony ArtusaClimate Prediction Center

College Park, MD

USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, Crystal City, VA 2/21/2014

CPC Climate OutlooksFor Spring & Summer 2014

Page 2: Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

“FLASH DROUGHT” OF 2013

Frozen soils (Upper Midwest) into April

Very wet Spring

Plants developed shallow root systems in response to wetness

When wetness abruptly stopped in early summer, roots unable to access deeper moisture.

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August 6 August 20

Sept 3 Sept 17

Drought rapidly expands & intensifies(U.S. Drought Monitor 2013)

Monsoon

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B

N

33%

43%

23%

“EC”

TERCILE ADJUSTMENTS

Category

B

N

A43%

23%

33%

A

MOSTLIKELY

CATEGORY:BELOW

NORMAL

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NINO 3.4 REGION

170W 120W

5N

5SEQUATOREQUATOR

DATE LINE

DATE LINE

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Spring & Summer 2014 Climate Outlooks

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ENSO-NEUTRAL FAVORED (SPRING) BORDERLINE NEUTRAL / EL NINO (SUMMER)

Season La Niña Neutral El NiñoJFM 2014 2% 96% 2%FMA 2014 3% 91% 6%MAM 2014 3% 79% 18%AMJ 2014 3% 66% 31%MJJ 2014 4% 56% 40%JJA 2014 6% 49% 45%JAS 2014 6% 47% 47%ASO 2014 6% 45% 49%SON 2014 6% 45% 49%

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18 Feb

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18 Feb

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Soil Moisture“Current” Conditions (NLDAS) (CAS) Outlooks

ANOMEnd ofMarch

End of May %-ile

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From 15%-30%of California’s

annual precipitation

comes in Mar-Apr-May

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From 35%-60%of Central U.S.’s

annual precipitation

comes in May-June-July.

(MCS’s/Fronts)

Page 17: Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

Low reservoirsLivestock sell-off

GroundwaterLow Snowpack

12”-20” deficits since start of WY

Author:David MiskusNOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC

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IRI* Multi-Model Forecast

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION

* International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Lamont Campus, Columbia University, Palisades, NY)

SPRING

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2014/feb2014/images/MAM14_World_temp.gif

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2014/feb2014/images/MAM14_World_pcp.gif

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IRI* Multi-Model Forecast

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION

* International Research Institute for Climate and Society (Lamont Campus, Columbia University, Palisades, NY)

SUMMER

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2014/feb2014/images/JJA14_World_temp.gif

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2014/feb2014/images/JJA14_World_pcp.gif

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International Temperature Outlooks for MAM 2014

Climate Forecast System

Nat’l Multi-Model Ensemble Int’l Multi-Model Ensemble

SPRINGSPRING

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International Temperature Outlooks for JJA 2014

Climate Forecast System

Nat’l Multi-Model Ensemble Int’l Multi-Model Ensemble

SUMMER SUMMER

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International Precipitation Outlooks for MAM 2014

Climate Forecast System

Nat’l Multi-Model Ensemble Int’l Multi-Model Ensemble

SPRINGSPRING

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International Precipitation Outlooks for JJA 2014

Climate Forecast System

Nat’l Multi-Model Ensemble Int’l Multi-Model Ensemble

SUMMERSUMMER

Page 25: Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

Beijing Climate Center(March-May 2014 Precipitation)

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2014/CS201403_201405GLRAINL6.GIF

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Beijing Climate Center(June-August 2014 Precipitation)

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2014/CS201406_201408GLRAINL6.GIF

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SUMMARY:ENSO-NEUTRAL (Spring) | NEUTRAL/WARM (Summer)

SPRING SUMMER

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Pictures:http://www.cameronhanover.com/wp-content/uploads/corn__wheat___soybeans1.jpg

http://nixahardware.com/images/alfalfa_hay_round_bales.jpghttp://www.cottonman.com/images/cotton%20pictures/cotton%20field.jpg

http://www.technikboerse.com/pictures/49007145/5983b7c4-2de5-41bc-9d78-fc2e0b42c8c8.jpg (axial flow combine)

THE END

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33 6750PERCENTILE

B N A33% B

N

A

0%

67%

100%

CLIMATOLOGICAL CATEGORIES/TERCILES(1981-2010 Temp / Prcp Historical Observations)

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Verification of several Climate Outlooks (2014)

Heidke Skill Score (HSS):

HSS = C – E ------- (100) T - E

C: number of stations Correctly forecastE: number of stations Expected Correct by random chance (=1/3)T: Total number of stations

-50 +1000(CLIMO)

Better than climoWorse than climo

Page 31: Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

“FLASH DROUGHT” OF 2012

Antecedent winter/spring soils insufficiently recharged

Very mild winter left little snowpack to help keep soils moist in spring

Record Heat in March coming out of a La Nina winter

Rapid Onset of Heat in early June 2012 (bad timing)

Page 32: Anthony Artusa Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD

May 29 June 5

June 12 June 19

Pre-existing Drought rapidly intensifies & expands(U.S. Drought Monitor 2012)


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