Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to...
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Transcript of Anthesis-Caleb Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to...
Summary Report on HFC Emissions Studies
Prepared under contract to UNDP for CCAC REPORT OBJECTIVE TO SUMMARISE THE COMBINED EXPERIENCES ARISING FROM THE DEVELOPMENT AND REPORTING OF EMISSIONS FORECASTS FOR SIX COUNTRIES USING THEIR HFC INVENTORY REPORTS AND RELATED DOCUMENTS.
INTRODUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF REPORTS Anthesis-Caleb was commissioned by UNDP to review the CCAC-sponsored HFC Inventory Reports prepared for each of six countries1 with a view to using those reports, plus any relevant supporting information in the public domain, to derive emissions estimates using the assembled time series of consumption data. Emission factors would preferably be taken from local experience, but default values would be used from the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines2 where such information was either unavailable or deemed unreliable. Indeed, it was decided to model emissions using the 2006 IPCC Reporting Guidelines for each country in parallel with any local emission factor information available in order to provide country-to-country comparisons on a consistent basis. In December 2014, Chile was selected as an initial pilot country in order to determine whether such a transposition from historical consumption to emissions was feasible. That report was initially completed in early 2015 and became the subject of some discussion amongst stakeholders as the methodology was further refined. Anthesis-Caleb had taken the view that any time series of HFC use should also consider the historic demand for HCFCs, since all HFC use, especially that relating to refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC), had originated as a result of the switch from ozone depleting substances (ODS). Whilst this was strictly true, such presentation was seen by key stakeholders (most notably CCAC), as detracting from the main intended message of these emissions reports, which was the growth in consumption and emissions of HFCs. Nevertheless, Anthesis-Caleb considered that placing these key outputs in the context of historical HCFC demand was a key factor in both validating the HFC outputs and demonstrating the influence of HCFC Phase-out Management Plans (HPMPs) on the uptake of HFCs. As a compromise, it was decided that the key content of the report itself should be focused solely on HFC demand and emissions, while supporting information on HCFC demand and emissions should be included graphically in an Annex, so that it remained accessible to readers. This approach proved fully workable and the Chilean Report was appropriately adjusted to comply with this revised approach. As such, it became a template for all five further reports.
1 Bangladesh, Chile, Colombia, Ghana, Indonesia and Nigeria 2 Volume 3 Chapter 7
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OUTLINE OF THE BASIC METHODOLOGY
The HFC Inventory Reports were focused on the determination of historic demand and the projection of that demand through to 2020. It was viewed as not appropriate to extrapolate consumption growth beyond 2020 in the absence of more reliable information on the installed equipment bases and detailed information on phase-out strategies from the HPMPs of the individual countries. The experience of the Chilean pilot was used at a side event in November 2015 to illustrate the essential and desirable elements of an HFC Inventory for the transposition of consumption data to an emissions projection. Table 1 shows those elements and illustrates that the Chilean pilot met all essential elements and most of the desirable ones too.
Table 1 – Essential and Desirable Elements as determined by Chile pilot Essentially, the annual demand (consumption) in a given country arises from two specific sources:
1. Servicing demand to replace refrigerants and fire protection agents emitted during the year and
2. Demand created by the installation of new products or equipment within the year All demand for sectors such as foam will fall into the ‘new product’ category, since no servicing of foam products takes place once installed. However, the split between (1) and (2) for refrigerants and fire protection agents will depend on the balance between annual leakage rates by sector and the growth in the overall installed base of relevant equipment. A further factor relating to the import of pre-charged products/equipment might also be a source of further ‘consumption’, but this was generally found to be a relatively small factor in most countries. Since there was no ‘in-country’ manufacture of HFCs in any of the six countries studied, annual consumption could be tracked using import statistics provided that some consideration was taken of any stocks being carried over from one year to the next. This could be important if domestic or international regulation encouraged any incentive for stockpiling.
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For the purposes of this work, it was determined that the historic and projected consumption values for each HCFC and HFC (and blends thereof), as presented in the respective HFC Inventory Reports were reliable, based on the level of effort which had been invested in the data collection process. Where there were shortcomings and differences in the presentation of information from one Inventory Report to another, this was usually found to relate to lack of data availability at source. In many cases, it proved possible to find other sources of information to assist in filling gaps (see next section). In terms of forward consumption projections, different methods were sometimes used by authors and any limitations observed by Anthesis-Caleb were pointed out in the respective country-reports. From a consumption perspective, the methodology sets a clear value on the sum of (1) + (2). Hence, the identification of leakage rates in each sub-sector will have an immediate bearing on the projected growth of the installed base, since diversion of consumption into servicing will result in lower allocations to new equipment and vice versa. SOURCE MATERIALS
It has already been noted that supporting information from related reports was often helpful in building a full picture of the activities in sectors consuming (and eventually emitting) HFCs. The country-level HPMPs were of particular help in some areas where the RAC sectoral phase-out was covered in detail. Table 2 illustrates the various sources used by country:
Country HFC Inventory Report HPMP Other
Bangladesh Yes No 2015 UNDP Work Programme
Chile Yes Not needed Rio Flores Report
Colombia Yes Not needed MLF Project Proposals
Ghana Yes Yes (2010) HPMP Verification (2014)
Indonesia Yes Yes
(presentation) 2014 UNDP Work Programme
MLF Project Proposals
Nigeria Yes No 2014 UNDP Work Programme
Table 2 – Various source materials used for country-level assessments
There was a tendency in some HFC Inventory Reports to focus almost exclusively on the RAC sector which necessitated reference to other sources to conclude whether that approach was appropriate. Where other uses were identified, the UNDP Work Programmes and individual MLF Project Proposals provided the necessary perspectives on the other sectors. However, this experience highlights the value of having a standardized format for reporting consumption by sector, so that even those sectors which have no consumption are appropriately recorded. This then saves having to ‘prove the negative’ via other means. From the source materials used, it was possible to assemble the necessary information to derive the appropriate emission estimates and all countries were able to be processed accordingly. That said, Nigeria proved the most challenging, primarily because its lack of sub-sectoral analysis. The following table (Table 3) illustrates the findings for each country related to Essential and Desirable elements, building on the criteria established in the Chilean pilot.
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Table 3 – Essential and Desirable elements for the remaining five countries studied SUB-SECTORAL DEFINITION IN THE REFRIGERATION AND AIR CONDITIONING SECTOR
Partly because the Chilean Report was the pilot for the others that followed and partly because it provided adequate differentiation, Anthesis-Caleb adopted the sectoral/sub-sectoral definition that was used therein for its analysis of other countries. This sub-sectoral analysis is shown in Table 4 for the specific example of HFC-134a.
Table 4 – Consumption trends by sub-sector for Chile’s use of HFC-134a (2008-2020) This approach had some minor oddities in that ‘Industrial and Supermarkets’ were grouped together and separated from ‘Commercial’ Refrigeration. This was an unusual approach, but highlighted something that was going to emerge more significantly in later country reports – namely that differentiation between industrial and commercial refrigeration varies substantially between countries and that there is no ‘right’ way of approaching the subject. Since emission factors have wide ranges in these sectors and are seldom reported in sufficient de