Annual Update of the U.S. International Transactions...

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July 2019 Volume 99, Number 7 Annual Update of the U.S. International Transactions Accounts By Eric Bryda, C. Omar Kebbeh, and Ted Peck In June 2019, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released annual updates of the U.S. international transactions accounts (ITAs) and the U.S. international investment position (IIP) accounts. With this annual update, quarterly and annual statistics on U.S. international transactions were revised to incorporate newly available and revised source data and updated seasonal and trading day adjustments as follows: Goods exports and imports for 2016–2018 were updated to incorporate revised source data, mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau. Services exports and imports for 2016–2018 were updated to incorporate newly available and revised source data, mainly from BEA quarterly surveys of international trade in services. Primary income receipts and payments for 2016–2018 were updated to incorporate newly available and revised source data, mainly from BEA direct investment surveys and from the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) surveys. Financial asset and liability transactions for direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment, and financial derivatives for 2016–2018 were updated to incorporate newly available and revised source data, mainly from BEA direct investment surveys and from TIC surveys. Seasonal factors and trading day adjustments were updated for 2014–2018. Appendices A and B provide a numerical summary of the revisions; for a comparison of this year’s revisions with revisions from past annual updates, see “2019 Annual Update in Historical Context.” Updated statistics on the detailed components of the ITAs are presented in ”U.S. International Transactions Tables” in this issue of the Survey of Current Business. 1 2 – 1 –

Transcript of Annual Update of the U.S. International Transactions...

Page 1: Annual Update of the U.S. International Transactions Accountsapps.bea.gov/scb/2019/07-july/pdf/0719-annual-international-transactions.pdf2018. For 2016–2018, this annual update has

July2019 Volume99,Number7

AnnualUpdateoftheU.S.InternationalTransactionsAccountsByEricBryda,C.OmarKebbeh,andTedPeck

In June 2019, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released annual updates of the U.S.international transactions accounts (ITAs) and the U.S. international investment position (IIP)accounts. With this annual update, quarterly and annual statistics on U.S. internationaltransactionswere revised to incorporate newly available and revised source data and updatedseasonalandtradingdayadjustmentsasfollows:

Goodsexportsandimportsfor2016–2018wereupdatedtoincorporaterevisedsourcedata,mainlyfromtheU.S.CensusBureau.Servicesexportsandimportsfor2016–2018wereupdatedtoincorporatenewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedata,mainlyfromBEAquarterlysurveysofinternationaltradeinservices.Primaryincomereceiptsandpaymentsfor2016–2018wereupdatedtoincorporatenewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedata,mainlyfromBEAdirectinvestmentsurveysandfromtheU.S.DepartmentoftheTreasury’sTreasuryInternationalCapital(TIC)surveys.Financialassetandliabilitytransactionsfordirectinvestment,portfolioinvestment,otherinvestment,andfinancialderivativesfor2016–2018wereupdatedtoincorporatenewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedata,mainlyfromBEAdirectinvestmentsurveysandfromTICsurveys.Seasonalfactorsandtradingdayadjustmentswereupdatedfor2014–2018.

AppendicesAandBprovideanumericalsummaryoftherevisions;foracomparisonofthisyear’srevisionswithrevisionsfrompastannualupdates,see“2019AnnualUpdateinHistoricalContext.”Updated statistics on the detailed components of the ITAs are presented in ”U.S. InternationalTransactionsTables”inthisissueoftheSurveyofCurrentBusiness.

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MAR

2019AnnualUpdateinaHistoricalContext

The 2019 annual update represents the first annual update of statistics for 2018, the second annual update ofstatisticsfor2017,andthethirdannualupdateofstatisticsfor2016.Revisionstoboththeannualandquarterlystatisticsasapercentageof trendgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)aregenerallysmaller thantypical first,second,andthirdannualrevisionsthatwerereleasedeachJunein2000–2018(forstatisticsfor1999–2017).

AsshownintableI,meanabsoluterevisions(MARs)forthequarterlyandannualstatisticsforthecurrent-accountbalanceandnetlending/borrowingfromfinancial-accounttransactionsaresmallerthancomparableMARsfrompastyears.(Inthistable,a“ratio”valuelessthanoneindicatestheJune2019revisionsaresmallerthanaveragerevisionsinannualupdatesofpastyears.)ThesmallMARsfromthe2019annualupdatepartlyreflectthefactthatnomajormethodologicalchangeswereincludedinthisupdate.ThelargestMARsrelativetopastyearswerefornetlending/borrowingfromfinancial-accounttransactionsin2018,resultinginarevisionratioof0.98.

TableI.ComparisonofRevisionsFromthe2019AnnualUpdateWithRevisionsFromPreviousAnnualUpdates

MARfromthe2019annualupdate MARfrompreviousannualupdates RatioBalanceoncurrentaccount

Quarterlystatistics2016 0.032 0.114 0.282017 0.059 0.140 0.422018 0.118 0.151 0.78

Annualstatistics2016 0.024 0.095 0.252017 0.049 0.119 0.412018 0.012 0.136 0.09

Netlendingorborrowingfromfinancial-accounttransactionsQuarterlystatistics2016 0.044 0.442 0.102017 0.237 0.649 0.362018 0.570 0.652 0.87

Annualstatistics2016 0.016 0.338 0.052017 0.131 0.307 0.432018 0.364 0.370 0.98

Meanabsoluterevision

1. RatioisMARfromthe2019annualupdatedividedbyMARfrompreviousannualupdates.2. Revisionstostatisticsontransactionsfor2016arecomparedwithrevisionsinpreviousthirdannualupdatesin2002–2018.

3. Revisionstostatisticsontransactionsfor2017arecomparedwithrevisionsinprevioussecondannualupdatesin2001–2018.

4. Revisionstostatisticsontransactionsfor2018arecomparedwithrevisionsinpreviousfirstannualupdatesin2000–2018.

Note.Allrevisionsarecomputedasapercentageoftrendcurrent-dollargrossdomesticproduct.

GeometricmeansofMARsratiosareshownintableIIforsomeofthemainaggregatesandbalances.(Toillustrate,thevalueof0.45forthebalanceoncurrentaccountinthefirstcolumnisthegeometricmeanof0.28,0.42,and0.78fromthethirdcolumnoftableI).The2019revisionstoexportsofgoodsandservicesandincomereceiptsandtoimportsofgoodsandservicesandincomepaymentswerebothconsiderablysmallerthanhistoricalrevisions.The2019revisionstocomponentsofthesetwoaggregateswerealsosmall,relativetohistoricalaverages,aswererevisionstothetwomainfinancial-accountaggregatesandtothevariouscurrent-accountbalances.

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MARs

TableII.RatiosoftheRevisionsFromthe2019AnnualUpdatetoRevisionsFromPreviousAnnualUpdates[GeometricmeanofratiosofMARs]

Quarterlystatistics AnnualstatisticsExportsofgoodsandservicesandincomereceipts 0.43 0.41Goodsexports 0.50 0.15Servicesexports 0.36 0.11Primaryincomereceipts 0.49 0.53

Importsofgoodsandservicesandincomepayments 0.21 0.07Goodsimports 0.36 0.51Servicesimports 0.46 0.49Primaryincomepayments 0.15 0.13

NetU.Sacquisitionoffinancialassetsexcludingfinancialderivatives 0.34 0.13NetU.S.incurrenceofliabilitiesexcludingfinancialderivatives 0.15 0.15Balanceongoods 0.65 0.62Balanceonservices 0.53 0.20Balanceongoodsandservices 0.62 0.35Balanceonprimaryincome 0.27 0.29Balanceonsecondaryincome 0.43 0.24Balanceoncurrentaccount 0.45 0.21Netlending/borrowingfromfinancialaccount 0.32 0.27

Addenda:Exportsofgoodsandservicesandincomepaymentsexcludingeffectsofthe2014definitionalchanges 0.55 0.53Importsofgoodsandservicesandincomereceiptsexcludingeffectsofthe2014definitionalchanges 0.37 0.15

Meanabsoluterevisions

1. Geometricmeancomputedoverthreeratios:(1)ratioofMARofstatisticsfor2018toMARfromotherfirstannualupdates;(2)ratioofMARofstatisticsfor2017toMARfromothersecondannualupdates;(3)ratioofMARofstatisticsfor2016toMARfromotherthirdannualupdates.

2. Seethediscussioninthetext.

TableIIalsopresentstwoaddendaratiosthatexcludetheeffectsinthehistoricalaveragesofdefinitionalchangesimplemented in the2014comprehensiverestructuringof the ITAs. In2014, “exportsofgoodsandservicesandincomereceipts”and“importsofgoodsandservicesandincomepayments”wereredefinedtoincludesecondaryincomereceiptsandsecondaryincomepayments,respectively.Previously,secondaryincomestatisticswereonlypublished on a net basis in “balance on secondary income.” Inclusion of gross secondary income flows in thecurrent-accountaggregatesresultedinrevisionstotheseseriesfor2014thatweremuchlargerthantypicalyears.Toavoidthedistortionscreatedbytheseredefinitions,thevaluesintheaddendaarebasedoncalculationsof2014revisions that use a common definition for the revised and the previously published estimates that excludessecondaryincome.Therecalculated2014revisionsaremoresimilartotypicalrevisionsoftheaggregates,sothehistoricalaveragesusedincomputingtheratiosintheaddendaaremorereflectiveoftypicalrevisionsthanthoseusedforcomputingratiosshowninthemainbodyofthetable.Intheaddendum,revisionsonboththeexportandimportsidesarelargerthanthoseshowninthemainbodyofthetablebutremainsmallerthanhistoricalrevisions.

1. TrendGDPisderivedusingaHodrick-Prescottfiltertoseparatethequarter-to-quarterdeviationsfromthetimeseriestrend.ForadditionalinformationontrendGDPcalculation,seefootnote17ofRyanHowley,“AnAnalysisoftheReliabilityofBEA’sInternationalTransactionsAccounts,”SurveyofCurrentBusiness97(February2017)

2. Formoreinformationonthe2014comprehensiverestructuring,seeJeffreyR.Bogen,Mai-ChiHoang,KristyL. Howell,andErinM.Whitaker,“ComprehensiveRestructuringandAnnualRevisionoftheU.S.InternationalTransactionsAccounts,”Survey94(July2014).

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EffectsoftheRevisions

Current-accounthighlightsCurrent-account statisticswereupdated to incorporatenewlyavailableand revisedsourcedatafor2016–2018andupdatedseasonal factors,whichonlyaffectedquarterly statistics, for2014–2018.For2016–2018,thisannualupdatehasnotalteredtheoverallpictureofU.S.internationaltransactions.Revisionstothecurrent-accountdeficitfor2016–2018didnotalteritsdirectionofchange(increaseordecrease)foranyyear.Thecurrent-accountdeficitwasreviseddownfor2016and 2017 and revised up for 2018. The largest revisions to the current-account deficit weredownwardrevisionsof$9.5billionfor2017and$4.5billionfor2016(tableA,chart1).Despitetheserevisionsinlevels,thetrendinthecurrent-accountdeficitreflectedintherevisedstatisticsforallyearsisunchangedfromthetrendreflectedinthepreviouslypublishedstatistics.

Therevisionstothequarterlystatisticsdidnotaffectthedirection(increaseordecrease)ofthequarter-to-quarterchangesinthecurrent-accountdeficitfor2014–2018,withoneexception:forthefirstquarterof2015,a$0.1billiondollardecreaseinthedeficitwasrevisedtoanincreaseoflessthan$0.1billion(chart2).Formostquarters,therevisionsalsodidnotsignificantlyaffectthemagnitudeofthequarter-to-quarterchangesinthecurrent-accountdeficit.Thelargestrevisiontothequarter-to-quarterchangewasforthesecondquarterof2018;thepreviouslypublished$20.4billiondecreaseinthedeficitwasrevisedup$13.7billiontoa$6.7billiondecrease.

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Goodsandservices. Thedeficit ongoodsand serviceswas revisedup for2016and2018andreviseddownfor2017.Thelargestrevisionwasanupwardrevisionof$5.6billionfor2018.Therevisedstatisticsshowthesametrendasthepreviouslypublishedstatistics.

The deficit on goods was revised down for 2016–2018. The largest revision was a downwardrevisionof$4.0billionfor2018(tableB).TheupdatestoexportsandimportsofgoodsprimarilyreflectrevisedsourcedatafromtheCensusBureau.

Thesurplusonserviceswasreviseddownfor2016–2018.Thelargestrevisionwasadownwardrevisionof$9.6billionfor2018(tableB).Therevisionstoexportsandimportsofservicesreflectnewly available and revised source data, primarily fromBEAquarterly surveys of internationaltradeinservices.

Primary income. The surplus on primary incomewas revised up for 2016–2018. The largestrevisionwasanupwardrevisionof$9.7billionfor2018(tablesAandB).Therevisionstoprimaryincomereceiptsandpaymentsmainlyreflectnewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedata fromBEAdirectinvestmentsurveysandtheTICsurveys.

Revisions to direct investment income for 2016 and 2017 reflect revisions to current-costadjustmentsdue tonewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedata fromBEAannualdirect investmentsurveys and from the BEA national accounts (table B). The current-cost adjustment to directinvestmentincomesubstituteseconomicdepreciationchargesforthefinancial-accounting-baseddepreciation and depletion charges against equity income that are reported onBEA surveys ofdirect investment. These adjustments put depreciation on a replacement-cost basis and morecloselyalignparents’claimsonaffiliates’incomewithchargesagainstincomeinthesameperiod,asrequiredbyeconomicaccountingprinciples.

TableA.RevisionstoCurrent-AccountandCapital-AccountBalances,NetLendingorNetBorrowingFromFinancial-AccountTransactions,andtheStatisticalDiscrepancy,2016–2018

[Billionsofdollars]

2016 2017 2018Balanceoncurrentaccount(line101):Revised −428.3 −439.6 −491.0Previouslypublished −432.9 −449.1 −488.5Amountofrevision 4.5 9.5 −2.5Balanceongoodsandservices(line102):

Revised −503.0 −550.1 −627.7Previouslypublished −502.0 −552.3 −622.1Amountofrevision −1.0 2.2 −5.6

Balanceonprimaryincome(line105):Revised 198.7 225.8 254.0Previouslypublished 193.0 221.7 244.3Amountofrevision 5.6 4.1 9.7

Balanceonsecondaryincome(line106):Revised −124.0 −115.3 −117.3Previouslypublished −123.9 −118.6 −110.7Amountofrevision −0.1 3.3 −6.6

Balanceoncapitalaccount(line107):Revised −0.2 19.0 3.2Previouslypublished −0.1 24.7 9.4Amountofrevision −0.1 −5.8 −6.2

Netlending(+)ornetborrowing(−)fromfinancial-accounttransactions(line109):Revised −382.0 −357.6 −445.5Previouslypublished −385.1 −331.9 −519.6Amountofrevision 3.0 −25.7 74.1

Statisticaldiscrepancy(line100):Revised 46.5 63.1 42.3Previouslypublished 47.9 92.5 −40.5Amountofrevision −1.4 −29.4 82.8

Note.LinenumbersrefertoITAtable1.2onBEA’swebsite.

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The2018revisions todirect investment incomereflectnewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedatafromBEAquarterlydirectinvestmentsurveysaswellasrevisionstocurrent-costadjustmentstodirectinvestmentincome.Theincorporationofupdatedquarterlydirectinvestmentsurveydatafor2016and2017,whichwouldnormallyoccurwiththisannualupdate,wasdelayeduntil2020becauseoftheimpactofthepartialgovernmentshutdownthatstartedinlateDecember2018andendedinlateJanuary2019.

Secondaryincome.Thedeficitonsecondaryincome(currenttransfers)wasrevisedupfor2016and2018andreviseddownfor2017.Thelargestrevisionwasanupwardrevisionof$6.6billionfor 2018 (tablesA andB). The revisions to secondary incomeprimarily reflect newly availablesource data from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopment,andBEAservicessurveys.

TableB.RevisionstoSelectedCurrent-AccountTransactions,2016–2018[Billionsofdollars]

2016 2017 2018Exportsofgoodsandservicesandincomereceipts(line1):Revised 3,188.5 3,444.8 3,735.7Previouslypublished 3,183.8 3,433.2 3,701.7Amountofrevision 4.7 11.6 34.0Exportsofgoods(line3):

Revised 1,457.4 1,553.6 1,674.3Previouslypublished 1,457.0 1,553.4 1,672.3Amountofrevision 0.4 0.2 2.0

Exportsofservices(line13):Revised 758.4 799.0 827.0Previouslypublished 758.9 797.7 828.4Amountofrevision −0.4 1.3 −1.4

Primaryincomereceipts(line23):Revised 835.5 933.3 1,084.2Previouslypublished 830.2 928.1 1,060.4Amountofrevision 5.3 5.2 23.8Directinvestmentincomereceipts(line25):

Revised 461.8 509.8 574.5Previouslypublished 456.4 504.4 551.8Amountofrevision 5.3 5.4 22.6Dividendsandwithdrawals(partofline25):

Revised 139.3 155.1 776.5Previouslypublished 139.3 155.1 664.9Amountofrevision 0.0 0.0 111.6

Reinvestedearnings(partofline25):Revised 298.3 328.0 −229.7Previouslypublished 292.9 322.6 −141.6Amountofrevision 5.3 5.4 −88.0

Secondaryincomereceipts(line30):Revised 137.2 159.0 150.2Previouslypublished 137.8 154.0 140.6Amountofrevision −0.6 4.9 9.6

Importsofgoodsandservicesandincomepayments(line31):Revised 3,616.9 3,884.5 4,226.7Previouslypublished 3,616.7 3,882.4 4,190.2Amountofrevision 0.2 2.1 36.5Importsofgoods(line33):

Revised 2,207.2 2,358.8 2,561.7

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n.i.e.

2016 2017 2018Previouslypublished 2,208.0 2,360.9 2,563.7Amountofrevision −0.8 −2.1 −2.0

Importsofservices(line42):Revised 511.6 543.9 567.3Previouslypublished 509.8 542.5 559.2Amountofrevision 1.8 1.4 8.1Insuranceservices(line46):

Revised 50.1 50.6 42.5Previouslypublished 49.9 50.7 38.2Amountofrevision 0.2 −0.1 4.3

Chargesfortheuseofintellectualpropertyn.i.e.(line48):Revised 47.0 53.4 56.1Previouslypublished 46.6 51.3 53.8Amountofrevision 0.4 2.2 2.4

Primaryincomepayments(line52):Revised 636.9 707.5 830.2Previouslypublished 637.2 706.4 816.1Amountofrevision −0.3 1.1 14.1

Secondaryincomepayments(line58):Revised 261.2 274.3 267.5Previouslypublished 261.7 272.6 251.2Amountofrevision −0.5 1.6 16.2

Balanceoncurrentaccount(line101):Revised −428.3 −439.6 −491.0Previouslypublished −432.9 −449.1 −488.5Amountofrevision 4.5 9.5 −2.5Balanceongoodsandservices(line102):

Revised −503.0 −550.1 −627.7Previouslypublished −502.0 −552.3 −622.1Amountofrevision −1.0 2.2 −5.6Balanceongoods(line103):

Revised −749.8 −805.2 −887.3Previouslypublished −751.1 −807.5 −891.3Amountofrevision 1.3 2.3 4.0

Balanceonservices(line104):Revised 246.8 255.1 259.7Previouslypublished 249.1 255.2 269.2Amountofrevision −2.2 −0.1 −9.6

Balanceonprimaryincome(line105):Revised 198.7 225.8 254.0Previouslypublished 193.0 221.7 244.3Amountofrevision 5.6 4.1 9.7

Balanceonsecondaryincome(line106):Revised −124.0 −115.3 −117.3Previouslypublished −123.9 −118.6 −110.7Amountofrevision −0.1 3.3 −6.6

Notincludedelsewhere

Note.LinenumbersrefertoITAtable1.2onBEA’swebsite.

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Capital-accounthighlightsThebalanceonthecapitalaccountwasreviseddownfor2016–2018.Thelargestrevisionswereadownward revision of $6.2 billion for 2018 and a downward revision of $5.8 billion for 2017(tableA).Therevisionstocapitaltransferreceiptsreflectrevisedestimatesof insurance-relatedcapitaltransfersbasedonnewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedatafromBEAquarterlysurveysofinternational trade in services. The2017 transactions reflected receipts from foreign insurancecompanies for losses resulting fromhurricanesHarvey, Irma, andMaria.The2018 transactionsreflectedreceiptsfromforeigninsurancecompaniesforlossesresultingfromHurricaneFlorenceandthewildfiresinCalifornia.Formoreinformation,see“Whataretheeffectsofhurricanesandotherdisastersontheinternationaleconomicaccounts?”

Financial-accounthighlightsFinancial-account statistics for 2014–2018 were updated to incorporate newly available andrevisedsourcedata, includingBEAquarterlyandannualdirect investmentsurveys,TICsurveys,andupdatedseasonalfactors.Revisionstonetborrowingfromfinancial-accounttransactionsfor2016–2018 did not alter its direction of change for any year. The largest revisions to netborrowingfromfinancialaccounttransactionswereadownwardrevisionof$74.1billionfor2018andanupwardrevisionof$25.7billionfor2017(tablesAandC,chart3).

RevisionstonetborrowingreflectthecombinedrevisionstonetU.S.acquisitionoffinancialassetsexcludingfinancialderivatives,tonetU.S. incurrenceof liabilitiesexcludingfinancialderivatives,andtonettransactionsinfinancialderivatives.Therevisedannualfinancialtransactionsforeachofthesemajoraccountsaresimilar insizeanddirectionofchange(increaseordecrease)tothepreviouslypublishedfinancialtransactions.Therevisionstothequarterlystatisticsdidnotaffectthe direction of the quarter-to-quarter changes in net borrowing for 2014–2018, with oneexception: for the second quarter of 2018, a $7.1 billion dollar decrease in net borrowingwasrevisedtoanincreaseof$39.7billion(chart4).

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TableC.RevisionstoSelectedFinancial-AccountTransactions,2016–2018[Billionsofdollars]

2016 2017 2018NetU.S.acquisitionoffinancialassetsexcludingfinancialderivatives(netincreaseinassets/financialoutflow(+))(line61):Revised 353.0 1,167.4 310.8Previouslypublished 348.6 1,182.7 301.6Amountofrevision 4.4 −15.3 9.2Directinvestmentassets(line62):

Revised 318.3 384.6 −78.5Previouslypublished 313.0 379.2 −50.6Amountofrevision 5.3 5.4 −27.8

Portfolioinvestmentassets(line65):Revised 36.3 569.4 334.0Previouslypublished 36.3 586.7 210.3Amountofrevision 0.0 −17.3 123.7Equityandinvestmentfundshares(line66):

Revised 21.7 139.9 194.1Previouslypublished 21.7 166.8 97.2Amountofrevision 0.0 −26.9 96.9

Debtsecurities(line67)Revised 14.5 429.4 139.9Previouslypublished 14.5 419.9 113.2Amountofrevision 0.0 9.6 26.8

Otherinvestmentassets(line70):Revised −3.7 215.2 50.3Previouslypublished −2.7 218.5 136.9Amountofrevision −0.9 −3.3 −86.7Currencyanddeposits(line71):

Revised −91.3 169.2 71.8Previouslypublished −91.3 172.0 151.8Amountofrevision (*) −2.7 −80.0

Loans(line72):Revised 86.8 40.2 −22.4Previouslypublished 87.7 40.9 −15.7Amountofrevision −0.9 −0.6 −6.7

NetU.S.incurrenceofliabilitiesexcludingfinancialderivatives(netincreaseinliabilities/financialinflow(+))(line84):Revised 742.9 1,549.0 735.6Previouslypublished 741.5 1,537.7 800.9Amountofrevision 1.4 11.3 −65.3Directinvestmentliabilities(line85):

Revised 494.4 354.7 258.4Previouslypublished 494.5 354.8 267.1Amountofrevision (*) −0.2 −8.7

Portfolioinvestmentliabilities(line88):Revised 231.3 792.5 315.7Previouslypublished 231.3 799.2 320.0Amountofrevision 0.0 −6.7 −4.3Equityandinvestmentfundshares(line89):

Revised −139.7 149.6 142.4Previouslypublished −139.7 155.7 147.2Amountofrevision 0.0 −6.0 −4.8

Debtsecurities(line90)Revised 371.0 642.9 173.3Previouslypublished 371.0 643.5 172.8

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(*)

2016 2017 2018Amountofrevision 0.0 −0.6 0.5

Otherinvestmentliabilities(line93):Revised 17.1 401.9 161.5Previouslypublished 15.7 383.7 213.8Amountofrevision 1.4 18.2 −52.3Currencyanddeposits(line94):

Revised 18.7 217.8 32.3Previouslypublished 17.2 217.4 29.6Amountofrevision 1.5 0.3 2.7

Loans(line95):Revised −7.6 168.9 114.1Previouslypublished −7.6 150.8 169.7Amountofrevision (*) 18.0 −55.7

Financialderivativesotherthanreserves,nettransactions(line99):Revised 7.8 24.0 −20.7Previouslypublished 7.8 23.1 −20.3Amountofrevision 0.0 0.9 −0.5

Netlending(+)ornetborrowing(−)fromfinancial-accounttransactions(line109):Revised −382.0 −357.6 −445.5Previouslypublished −385.1 −331.9 −519.6Amountofrevision 3.0 −25.7 74.1

Anonzerovaluebetween−$50,000,000and$50,000,000.

Note.LinenumbersrefertoITAtable1.2onBEA’swebsite.

NetU.S.acquisitionoffinancialassetsexcludingfinancialderivativesNetU.S.acquisitionoffinancialassetsexcludingfinancialderivativeswasrevisedupfor2016and2018andreviseddownfor2017.Therevisionsreflect(1)anupwardrevisiontonetacquisitionofdirect investment assets for 2016, (2) downward revisions to net acquisition of portfolioinvestment assets and other investment assets for 2017, and (3) an upward revision to netacquisitionofportfolio investmentassets thatwas largelyoffsetbyadownwardrevision tonetacquisitionofotherinvestmentassetsfor2018.

Direct investmentassets.Net acquisitionof direct investment assetswas revisedup for2016and2017,andnetwithdrawalofdirectinvestmentassetswasrevisedupfor2018.TherevisionsreflectnewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedatafromBEAquarterlyandannualdirectinvestmentsurveys.Revisionsto2016and2017reflectrevisedcurrent-costadjustmentstodirectinvestmentincome,which enter into direct investment assets as a component of reinvestment of earnings.Newly available and revised source data from BEA quarterly direct investment surveys areincorporatedfor2018only(see“Primaryincome”).

Portfolio investment assets. Net acquisition of portfolio investment assets (equity and debtsecurities)wasunrevisedfor2016,reviseddownfor2017,andrevisedupfor2018.Thelargestrevisionwasa$123.7billionupwardrevisionfor2018.TherevisionsreflectnewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedatafromtheTICsurveysofU.S.holdingsofforeignsecurities.

Other investment assets. Net liquidation of other investment assets (currency and deposits,loans,insurancetechnicalreserves,andtradecreditandadvances)wasrevisedupfor2016.Netacquisitionofotherinvestmentassetswasreviseddownfor2017and2018.Thelargestrevisionwasa$86.7billiondownward revision innet acquisition for2018.The revisionsmainly reflect

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newlyavailableandrevisedsourcedatafromtheTICsurveysofU.S.claimsonforeignersandfromnewly available data from the Bank for International Settlements on deposits placed by U.S.nonfinancialcompaniesinforeignbanks.

NetU.S.incurrenceofliabilitiesexcludingfinancialderivativesNetU.S.incurrenceofliabilitiesexcludingfinancialderivativeswasrevisedupfor2016and2017andreviseddownfor2018.Therevisionsreflect(1)upwardrevisionstonetincurrenceofotherinvestment liabilities for2016and2017and(2)downwardrevisionstonet incurrenceofotherinvestmentliabilities,directinvestmentliabilities,andportfolioinvestmentliabilitiesfor2018.

Directinvestmentliabilities.Netincurrenceofdirectinvestmentliabilitieswasreviseddownfor2016–2018. The largest revisionwas a $8.7 billion downward revision for 2018. The revisionsmainly reflect newly available and revised source data from BEA’s quarterly and annual directinvestmentsurveys.Revisionsto2016and2017reflectrevisedcurrent-costadjustmentstodirectinvestmentincome,whichenterintodirectinvestmentliabilitiesasacomponentofreinvestmentof earnings. Newly available and revised source data from BEA’s quarterly direct investmentsurveysareincorporatedfor2018only(see“Primaryincome”).

Portfolioinvestmentliabilities.Netincurrenceofportfolioinvestmentliabilitieswasunrevisedfor 2016 and was revised down for 2017 and 2018. The largest revisions were a $6.7 billiondownwardrevisionfor2017anda$4.3billiondownwardrevisionfor2018.Therevisionsreflectnewly available and revised source data from the TIC surveys of foreign holdings of U.S.securities.

Other investment liabilities. Net incurrence of other investment liabilitieswas revised up for2016and2017anddownfor2018.Thelargestrevisionswerea$52.3billiondownwardrevisionfor2018anda$18.2billionupwardrevisionfor2017.TherevisionsreflectnewlyavailableandrevisedsourcedatafromtheTICsurveysofU.S.liabilitiestoforeigners.

StatisticaldiscrepancyThestatisticaldiscrepancyisthedifferencebetweennetacquisitionofassetsandnetincurrenceof liabilities inthefinancialaccount(includingfinancialderivatives) lessthedifferencebetweentotal credits and total debits recorded in the current and capital accounts. In principle, thecombineddeficit(orsurplus)onrecordedtransactionsinthecurrentandcapitalaccountsshouldequalnetborrowing(ornetlending)measuredbyrecordedtransactionsinthefinancialaccount.Inpractice,however,theydifferbecauseofincompletesourcedata,gapsincoverage,andtimingdifferences.

TableApresentsrevisionstothestatisticaldiscrepancyfor2016–2018.

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FutureEnhancementstoStandardTables

With the September 2019 release of the ITAs, BEA will introduce two new standard tables that present (1)geographicaldetailbytypeoftransactionand(2)annualtradeingoodsandserviceswithexpandedcountryandgeographicareadetail.

BEAalsoplanstomakeseveralimprovementstothestandardtablepresentationsoftheITAsaspartoftheannualupdate in 2020. Prototype tables reflecting the improved presentations will be published in September 2019alongsidethecurrentstandardtables.Bothsetsof tableswillbepublisheduntil June2020,whentheprototypetables will replace the current standard tables. For more information on these upcoming changes, see“EnhancementsComingAftertheJune2019AnnualUpdate”intheApril2019SurveyofCurrentBusiness.

Acknowledgments

PaulFarello,AssociateDirectorforInternationalEconomics,providedoverallsupervisionofthepreparationofthisyear’sannualupdateof the international transactionsaccounts.KristyHowell,Chiefof theBalanceofPaymentsDivision;ChristopherGohrband,Chiefof theFinancialAccountsBranch;andPatriciaAbaroa,Chiefof theDirectInvestment Division, directed major parts of the update. Raymond Mataloni Jr., Assistant Division Chief forResearchandAnalysis,providedgeneralguidance.

ThefollowingBEAstaffcontributedsignificantlytotheupdate:

Trade in goods: Benjamin Kavanaugh, Marc Bouchard, Danielle Clavon, Mai-Chi Hoang, Fritz Mayhew, MitchellShabani,andChristianThieme.

Tradeinservicesandsecondaryincome(currenttransfers):MollyGarber,AmiAdjoh-Baliki,ShariAllen,ElyeBliss,JeffreyBogen,LauraBrokenbaugh,EdwardDozierIII,C.OmarKebbeh,SeanLynch,MichelleMurillo,TedPeck,JohnSondheimer,DavidStein,RodolfoTelles,andErin(Yiran)Xin.

Internationalservicessurveys:ChristopherStein,PamelaAiken,SuhailAlly,DamonBattaglia,FaithBrannam,KieshaBrown, JamelaDesVignes,MichaelFlinch,AndreGarber,BrianGoddard,Nazre Jamil,Hope Jones,EddieLeeKey,StevenMuno,AlyssaReinland,MakiaRiley,andMarkSamuel.

Financial account and income: Christopher Gohrband, Barbara Berman, Eric Bryda, Dena Holland, NicholasMartinez,ElenaNguyen,JasonSutterley,DouglasWeinberg,andErinWhitaker.

Methodologyandspecialstudies:DanielYorgason,AlexisGrimm,andRyanHowley.

Research:JamesFetzer,ThomasAnderson,JessicaMcCloskey,andSarahStutzman.

Directinvestment: JessicaHanson,LeilaMorrison, IrisBranscome,MaryamFatima, JaredFelice,KennethHarvey,LouisLuu, JacobSimmons,DwayneTorney,RyanSmith,PeterFox,AkeeiaGriffin,SusanLaPorte, JesseMagolon,andGazalaMerchant.Computersystemsandoperations:BarbaraHubbard,PaulaBrown,AneeshKapoor,KarenMinor,ChristopherMorski,andKevinSmith.

Statisticalproductionanddatadissemination:BenjaminKavanaugh,GentianCala,DanielleN.Clavon,SteveHolliday,Walter Kampas, Paul Kilday, Anna Libkhen, Marina Melnik, Ying Ni, Kenneth Pond, Mitchell Shabani, DouglasWeinberg,andShirleyZhou.

Secretarialandprogramassistance:PamelaAiken,AyanaDudley,andSheilaJohnson.

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AppendixA.RevisionstoU.S.InternationalTransactions[Millionsofdollars]

2016 2017 2018Balanceongoodsandservices:Revised −502,982 −550,123 −627,679Previouslypublished −502,001 −552,277 −622,106Amountofrevision −981 2,154 −5,573

Balanceprimaryincome:Revised 198,654 225,799 253,985Previouslypublished 193,023 221,731 244,295Amountofrevision 5,631 4,068 9,690

Balanceonsecondaryincome:Revised −124,022 −115,322 −117,284Previouslypublished −123,895 −118,597 −110,661Amountofrevision −127 3,275 −6,623

Balanceoncurrentaccount:Revised −428,349 −439,646 −490,978Previouslypublished −432,873 −449,142 −488,472Amountofrevision 4,524 9,496 −2,506

Balanceoncapitalaccount:Revised −152 18,950 3,235Previouslypublished −59 24,746 9,409Amountofrevision −93 −5,796 −6,174

Netlending(+)ornetborrowing(−)fromfinancial-accounttransactions:Revised −382,042 −357,579 −445,477Previouslypublished −385,078 −331,860 −519,556Amountofrevision 3,036 −25,719 74,079

AppendixB.RevisionstoQuarterlyU.S.InternationalTransactionsStatistics[Millionsofdollars,quartersseasonallyadjusted]

2013 2014I II III IV I II III IV

Balanceongoodsandservices:Revised −119,068 −117,165 −117,425 −107,478 −120,547 −124,597 −120,226 −124,213Previouslypublished −119,068 −117,165 −117,425 −107,478 −121,862 −125,091 −119,583 −123,048Amountofrevision 0 0 0 0 1,315 494 −643 −1,165

Balanceprimaryincome:Revised 47,204 50,805 54,259 53,709 54,918 53,143 59,169 51,161Previouslypublished 47,204 50,805 54,259 53,709 55,300 53,418 59,143 50,530Amountofrevision 0 0 0 0 −382 −275 26 631

Balanceonsecondaryincome:Revised −22,441 −24,432 −24,950 −21,821 −22,944 −14,453 −27,536 −29,072Previouslypublished −22,441 −24,432 −24,950 −21,821 −22,970 −14,437 −27,368 −29,231Amountofrevision 0 0 0 0 26 −16 −168 159

Balanceoncurrentaccount:Revised −94,304 −90,791 −88,116 −75,590 −88,573 −85,907 −88,594 −102,125Previouslypublished −94,304 −90,791 −88,116 −75,590 −89,533 −86,110 −87,807 −101,749Amountofrevision 0 0 0 0 960 203 −787 −376

Balanceoncapitalaccount:Revised −40 −227 −146 (*) −43 −2 −1 (*)

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2013 2014I II III IV I II III IV

Previouslypublished −40 −227 −146 (*) −43 −2 −1 (*)Amountofrevision 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Netlending(+)ornetborrowing(−)fromfinancial-accounttransactions:Revised −47,980 −36,060 −141,943 −174,276 −113,490 −82,758 −58,651 −42,355Previouslypublished −47,980 −36,060 −141,943 −174,276 −113,676 −82,178 −58,459 −42,942Amountofrevision 0 0 0 0 186 −580 −192 587

2015 2016I II III IV I II III IV

Balanceongoodsandservices:Revised −125,743 −122,091 −127,450 −123,241 −125,634 −123,150 −122,090 −132,108Previouslypublished −125,708 −121,473 −127,531 −123,813 −125,261 −122,099 −121,770 −132,871Amountofrevision −35 −618 81 572 −373 −1,051 −320 763

Balanceprimaryincome:Revised 51,882 48,740 49,335 53,651 45,374 48,496 46,367 58,418Previouslypublished 52,378 49,152 49,016 53,062 45,447 47,543 43,909 56,124Amountofrevision −496 −412 319 589 −73 953 2,458 2,294

Balanceonsecondaryincome:Revised −28,280 −24,694 −31,073 −28,800 −32,175 −28,662 −31,069 −32,116Previouslypublished −28,270 −24,677 −31,035 −28,865 −32,087 −28,501 −31,465 −31,842Amountofrevision −10 −17 −38 65 −88 −161 396 −274

Balanceoncurrentaccount:Revised −102,141 −98,045 −109,188 −98,390 −112,435 −103,316 −106,792 −105,806Previouslypublished −101,600 −96,999 −109,550 −99,616 −111,901 −103,057 −109,327 −108,589Amountofrevision −541 −1,046 362 1,226 −534 −259 2,535 2,783

Balanceoncapitalaccount:Revised −22 −20 −1 0 −58 (*) −94 0Previouslypublished −22 −20 −1 0 −58 0 −1 0Amountofrevision 0 0 0 0 0 (*) −93 0

Netlending(+)ornetborrowing(−)fromfinancial-accounttransactions:Revised −121,328 −134,301 −36,347 −33,972 −104,226 −17,016 −197,610 −63,190Previouslypublished −121,288 −133,654 −36,535 −34,471 −101,609 −17,541 −199,854 −66,073Amountofrevision −40 −647 188 499 −2,617 525 2,244 2,883

2017 2018I II III IV I II III IV

Balanceongoodsandservices:Revised −134,050 −139,677 −131,422 −144,974 −153,108 −140,001 −163,424 −171,146Previouslypublished −134,959 −136,700 −132,791 −147,826 −156,256 −136,875 −162,011 −166,964Amountofrevision 909 −2,977 1,369 2,852 3,148 −3,126 −1,413 −4,182

Balanceprimaryincome:Revised 53,609 49,606 59,693 62,890 66,372 62,829 64,724 60,059Previouslypublished 52,604 48,535 58,222 62,371 61,189 62,332 60,339 60,435Amountofrevision 1,005 1,071 1,471 519 5,183 497 4,385 −376

Balanceonsecondaryincome:Revised −23,854 −32,804 −27,979 −30,686 −27,264 −30,139 −27,039 −32,841Previouslypublished −25,355 −33,672 −28,878 −30,692 −28,856 −29,026 −24,931 −27,849Amountofrevision 1,501 868 899 6 1,592 −1,113 −2,108 −4,992

Balanceoncurrentaccount:

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1. ForadiscussionoftheannualupdateoftheIIPaccounts,seeElenaL.NguyenandErinM.Whitaker,“U.S.NetInternationalInvestmentPosition:FirstQuarter2019,Year2018,andAnnualUpdate”inthisissueoftheSurveyofCurrentBusiness.

2. AspartofBEA’sgoaltomoreaccuratelyportraythechangingU.S.economy,withtheJune2018annualupdate,BEAextendedtheminimumperiodforincorporatingrevisedseasonalfactorsformostquarterlyITAstatisticsfrom3to5years.Withthe2019annualupdate,incooperationwiththeU.S.CensusBureau,BEAalsoappliedthisextendedrevisionperiodtoseasonallyadjustedtradeingoods.Withfutureannualupdates,BEAwillreviseseasonalfactorsforthemostrecent5yearsandforadditionalyears,dependingontheperiodofrevisionforunderlyingnotseasonallyadjusteddata.

3. Statisticsforportfolioinvestmentincomeandforotherinvestmentincomearebasedpartlyonresident-nonresidenttransactionsandpositionscollectedmonthlyandquarterlyontheTICsurveys,asexplainedinU.S.InternationalEconomicAccounts:ConceptsandMethods,chapter10,paragraphs10.169–10.189.

4. ReviseddatafromthefollowingTICsurveyswereincorporated:(1)AggregateHoldingsofLong-TermSecuritiesbyU.S.andForeignResidents(foreignsecurities),(2)ReportofU.S.OwnershipofForeignSecurities,IncludingSelectedMoneyMarketInstruments,and(3)ReportsbyFinancialInstitutionsofLiabilitiesto,andClaimson,ForeignResidentsbyU.S.Residents(claims)."

5. ReviseddatafromthefollowingTICsurveyswereincorporated:(1)ReportsbyFinancialInstitutionsofLiabilitiesto,andClaimson,ForeignResidentsbyU.S.Residents(claims)and(2)ReportsofLiabilitiesto,andClaimson,UnaffiliatedForeignResidentsbyU.S.ResidentNonfinancialInstitutions(claims).

6. ReviseddatafromthefollowingTICsurveyswereincorporated:(1)AggregateHoldingsofLong-TermSecuritiesbyU.S.andForeignResidents(U.S.securities),(2)Foreign-residents&squo;HoldingsofU.S.Securities,includingSelectedMoneyMarketInstruments,and(3)ReportsbyFinancialInstitutionsofLiabilitiesto,andClaimson,ForeignResidentsbyU.S.Residents(liabilities).

7. ReviseddatafromthefollowingTICsurveyswereincorporated:(1)ReportsbyFinancialInstitutionsofLiabilitiesto,andClaimson,ForeignResidentsbyU.S.Residents(liabilities)and(2)ReportsofLiabilitiesto,andClaimson,UnaffiliatedForeignResidentsbyU.S.ResidentNonfinancialInstitutions(liabilities).

(*)

2013 2014I II III IV I II III IV

Revised −104,295 −122,874 −99,708 −112,769 −114,001 −107,311 −125,739 −143,927Previouslypublished −107,709 −121,837 −103,447 −116,148 −123,923 −103,568 −126,604 −134,377Amountofrevision 3,414 −1,037 3,739 3,379 9,922 −3,743 865 −9,550

Balanceoncapitalaccount:Revised −58 −96 19,144 −40 −2 −5 521 2,721Previouslypublished −1 0 24,787 −40 −2 −5 559 8,856Amountofrevision −57 −96 −5,643 0 (*) 0 −38 −6,135

Netlending(+)ornetborrowing(−)fromfinancial-accounttransactions:Revised −67,234 −151,704 −116,317 −22,324 −93,376 −133,098 −57,381 −161,621Previouslypublished −68,606 −120,111 −111,891 −31,252 −160,739 −153,664 −36,843 −168,310Amountofrevision 1,372 −31,593 −4,426 8,928 67,363 20,566 −20,538 6,689

Anonzerovaluebetween−$500,000and$500,000.

SurveyofCurrentBusinesswww.bea.gov/scb

[email protected](301) 278-9004

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