Annual Report ME G4 15 Mar 2012

7/31/2019 Annual Report ME G4 15 Mar 2012

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Annual PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT

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CPWF Project Annual Report

Project Leader: Zahirul Haque Khan

Project Number: G4

Project Title: G4. Assessment of the impact of anticipated externaldrivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone

Reporting Period: May 25, 2011 to March 15, 2011

Report Serial Number:G4_CPWF_PPR-1_12_03_15

Starting Date: May 25, 2011

Completion Date: April 30, 2014

Date: 15/03/2012


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Contents

Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 2

Section 1: Research .............................................................................................................................. 3

1.1. What were your teams main activities over the last twelve months? .................................... 3

1.2. Adjustments to your research questions .................................................................................. 61.3. Describe how (research) best bets are evolving based on interaction with potential users

and on accumulated learning by your project. .................................................................................... 9

1.4. Surprise and success ............................................................................................................... 11

Section 2: Outputs and programmatic contributions ......................................................................... 12

2.1. Present your projects milestone plan .................................................................................... 12

2.2. Contributions to and from the BDC and its projects, joint work ............................................ 14

2.3. Partnerships ............................................................................................................................ 14

2.4. Gender and diversity integration ............................................................................................ 15

2.5. Contribution to and from Topic Working Groups (TWG) ....................................................... 15

2.6. Research publications and communication outputs .............................................................. 16

2.7. Capacity building of people engaged in the project .................................................................... 17

2.8. Outreach to actors or actor groups identified in the OLMs or others ........................................ 18

Section 3: Outcomes ........................................................................................................................... 20

3.1. Working towards developmental goals ....................................................................................... 20

3.2. Your projects theory of change .................................................................................................. 20

3.3. Challenges when working towards developmental goals ........................................................... 20

Section 4: Financial Management ...................................................................................................... 21

4.1. Summary financial report ....................................................................................................... 21

4.2. Project leaders commentary on the summary financial report ............................................ 21

Section 5: ................................................................................................ Implications for future action

22

5.1. Response to previous change requests .................................................................................. 22

5.2. Emerging opportunities and risks ........................................................................................... 23

5.3. Assistance needed .................................................................................................................. 23

5.4. Feedback for improving this reporting format ....................................................................... 23

5.5. Additional comments .............................................................................................................. 23

Annexes .............................................................................................................................................. 24

Annex 1: Updated Project Workbook ................................................................................................. 24

Annex 2: Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) ........................................................................................ 24


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Section 1: Research

1.1. What were your teams main activities over the last twelve months?

Selection of the study area: The study area was selected at the Launching Workshop of GBDC ina participatory approach considering salinity level, present agriculture and aquaculture practice

in the polder system and domain of the Ganges basin. The study area of G4 includes the coastal

zone of Ganges river in Bangladesh part for analysis of flooding, storm surge and salinity in

general but polder 3, 30 and 43/2f in particular. The detailed analysis on salinity, water

availability, storage capacity of drainage khals in the polders for irrigation, storm surge and

drainage congestion will be carried out for these specific polders (3, 30 & 43/2F).

Figure: Map showing the study location

Literature Review: Coastal zone of Bangladesh is the zone of numerous natural resources,

including freshwater, soil, forest, salt, wind, solar energy, wildlife as well as oil/gas, sand and

minerals. At the same time the area is densely populated with 52% of the population belowabsolute poverty line. The coastal zone is prone to multiple threats such as cyclones, storm

surges, floods and above all, climate change. Scarcity of drinking water, land erosion, the high

groundwater arsenic content, water logging, water and soil salinity and various forms of

pollution have also slowed down social and economic developments. The government has

identified the zone as an agro-ecologically disadvantaged region (GoB, 2005).

A number of completed and ongoing studies in the southwest and south-central coastal zones

of Bangladesh have been discussed in this review process. These include: Integrated

Environmental Management: A Case Study on Shrimp-paddy Land Use Strategies in the

Southwest of Bangladesh by EGIS in 2001, Khulna Jessore Drainage Rehabilitation Project

(KJDRP) by BWDB, Southwest Area Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management(SWIWRPMP) by BWDB and Integrated Planning for Sustainable Water Management (IPSWAM)

by BWDB and so on.


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In KJDRP, the drainage system in the south-west region of Bangladesh was assessed and

improvement of the system was suggested. It also suggested a detailed and integrated water

management study for the whole southwest region. SWIWRPMP recommended plan for

improving the productivity and sustainability of the existing Flood Control and Drainage and

Irrigation schemes while strengthening the institutions that are responsible for service delivery.The IPSWAM programme developed an integrated planning for sustainable water resources

management methodology.

Past and present land use practices in the study area have been discussed in this review

illustrating how land use have been changed from early twentieth century to 1950s, 60s, 70s,

80s and 90s. The drainage and salinity of the water resources in existing and climate change

conditions have been analyzed in details. With increase in sea surface level, salinity intrusion is

expected to aggravate in low lying coastal areas throughout the world (Bates et al., 2008). For

Bangladesh the salinity intrusion is likely to be more severe with decreasing fresh water flow

from Himalayan rivers predicted for dry season (dry season getting drier) and the gradual rise insea level (Cruz et al., 2007). A 2007 report by UNESCO, "Case Studies on Climate Change and

World Heritage" has stated that sea level rise combined with other forms of anthropogenic

stress on the Sundarbans, could lead to the destruction of 75% of the Sundarbans mangroves.

Water management in the southwest region will be a delicate issue for the future years in

context of the impacts of climate change. The studies covered impact of climate change on

drainage and salinity intrusion in the coastal Ganges. However, those studies used global

climate change projections from IPCC and other literature and did not downscale climate data

from GCM and RCMs for coastal area of the Ganges region. Moreover, the impacts of other

external drivers of change on water resources were not assessed and also future scenarios in

combination of drivers also were not developed. The most important issues to know theavailable surface water resources at present and in future in different scenarios for proper

planning of water use in enhancing agriculture production for food security.

Survey and data collection: We have made plans for detailed survey in the three selectedpolders. According to the plan, IWM survey team is measuring data at twelve water level

stations, six water flow stations and twenty three stations salinity stations in khals inside polder

3, 30 and 43/2F and peripheral rivers. Moreover, cross-sections of khals and embankments,

topography, land-use, water regulators and structures are also being surveyed. Water level and

salinity data are also being collected from various secondary sources such as BIWTA, BWDB,

SRDI and other institutes. Field data and information is needed to understand the prevailing

problems and characterize the study area.

Figure: Salnity survey and data collection


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Figure: Water level survey and data collection

Field visits to identify the existing issues and potential solutions: Several field visits were

carried out by G4 team for community consultation and stakeholder discussions to assess theimportant issues in water sector and identify the anticipated external drivers of change. These

issues will help assessing the existing problems in the study area and impacts of key external

drivers on water resources.

Figure: Focus group discussions in the selected polders

List of the key external drivers: Innovative strategies should be designed for sustainable food

and livelihood security and economic growth with an eye to future conditions, not just current

conditions. This involves meta-analysis of existing data and documents and scenario modeling

to understand the impacts of the external drivers on the existing/ future systems. Identificationof the external drivers of change and its prioritization are very important issues for G4. G4 has

carried out questionnaire survey, FGDs and a triangulation workshop to identify the list of the


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key external drivers.

Climate modelling: Climate change would have severe impacts on infrastructure, food and

livelihood security of the country. Low-lying coastal areas and costal polders in the Ganges

delta are at risks of tidal floods, water-logging and severe cyclone induced storm surges. Crops

and the livelihoods of the rural poor in low-lying coastal areas are also devastated by salinewater intrusion. All these climate related risks will be exacerbated if the future climate becomes

warmer and wetter and goes beyond historical variations. Selection of climate change models,

validation and downscaling of regional climate models, establishment of baseline conditions as

well as future projections are being carried out by G4. These results will help assessing the

impact of climate change in the study area.

Selection and calibration of the flow and salinity model: The flow and salinity models have

been selected. The south-west regional model (SWRM) developed by MIKE 11 modelling system

is being used for water flow modelling while combination of SWRM and the Bay of Bengal (BoB)

Model are being used for salinity modelling. G4 is now working on calibration and validation of

the flow and salinity models. These models will enable G4 to establish baseline condition of

water flow and salinity in the coastal region of the Ganges delta in Bangladesh and assess thelikely impacts of the external drivers on water flow and salinity.

1.2. Adjustments to your research questions

1. What are the key external drivers of change in the hydrology and performance of the system? How

various scenarios can be devised with combination of the key external drivers?

The hydrologic system in the coastal regions of Bangladesh is very vulnerable to impact of external

drivers. The performance of the system varies seasonally, annually and especially during the occurrenceof extreme events.

The project developed a comprehensive list of external drivers based on past researches and literature

review. The TWG on global drivers identified (1) Population, (2) Climate change, (3) Economics and

trade and (4) Politics and institutions as the major global drivers that will affect water resources and

food security. These broad categories of drivers have also been considered in the study. The list was

then put under a well designed priority and ranking criteria for identification of the key drivers and

circulated among experts, stakeholders and peers. The preliminary results of the questionnaire survey

show that population growth is the major external driver that will affect water resources in the region.

Climate change induced sea level rise, change in water management practices, water sharing practices

between riparian countries and water infrastructure development have been identified as other key

drivers. Identification of these key external drivers of change is very important for achieving the projectgoals since the main objective of G4 is to assess the effect of these drivers on water resources in the

coastal Ganges basin.

Stakeholder consultation and Focus group discussions were carried out in the selected polders to assess

the important issues in water resources management and to identify the anticipated external drivers of

change. Group discussions and interviews indicate that drainage congestion, khal leasing and

encroachment, loss of connectivity between river and floodplain, destruction of fish habitat,

sedimentation of river beds, salinity intrusion and population growth are the major issues in Polder-30.

The key issues in Polder-3 are salinity intrusion, reduction in freshwater flow due to upstream

interventions, conflict between gher owners and farmers, polder overtopping during spring tide,

drinking water availability, outbreak of shrimp virus and so on. In Polder 43/2F the main issues are

inadequate embankment height, scarcity of water during dry seasons, insufficient water controlstructures, permanent leasing of khals, loss of linkage of khals and water management problems. These


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findings along with those from the questionnaire survey will enable G4 to identify and prioritize external

drivers of change.

The summary of findings of the questionnaire survey and stakeholder consultations will be triangulated

and integrated through a workshop attended by the major professionals and stakeholders (including

the project leaders of G1, G2, G3 and G5). It is expected that the workshop will facilitate discussion

among representatives from different fields, and help arrive at a consensus on the external drivers andtheir priorities. The future scenarios simulated in this study will be devised considering combination of

various drivers.

2. What are the effects of external drivers and scenarios on flooding, submergence, sedimentation,

salinity intrusion and water availability in the different polders of the coastal zone?

The project will review and evaluate models available in-house, with the partner organizations and

globally. Based on the performance and suitability appropriate models will be selected for studying the

effects of the drivers of changes. For flood, submergence, sedimentation and salinity intrusion the study

will use the GBM basin model, regional models, the Bay of Bengal and RCM models based on MIKE

basin, MIKE 11, and MIKE 21FM. (Details are available in Annex-I). Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

and Water Evaluation And Planning Process (WEAP) models will be used for assessing the impacts ofland-use changes on flow. The effect of storm surges of varying intensities and frequencies on polder

overtopping and inundation will be assessed using the Bay of Bengal model based on MIKE 21. These

models will be utilized to simulate the baseline and projected conditions in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The

study will be conducted at the regional level for the coastal regions of Bangladesh as well as in three

selected polders (Polder No.3, 31 & 43/2F see Figure 1: Study area map of G4). The projection years and

the polders have been selected during the proposal development workshop through communication

among the projects. Water flow, salinity, sediment and storm surge model results will be calibrated

with respect to measured data and verified in consultation with the local communities. The preliminary

findings will be discussed with G1, G2 and G3 (through G5) to obtain their feedbacks which will be

incorporated in G4 research for further refinement of the model results.

3. What are the adaptation measures and strategies for different anticipated changes? What are the

implications of adaptation strategies for different anticipated changes?

It is now well recognised that the existing adaptation strategies are inadequate to cope up with the

enhanced magnitude and increased frequency of the impacts of the anticipated changes. The project

shall employ a resilience framework to study the future impacts and devise appropriate short, medium

and long-term adaptation strategies. In the beginning, the resilience of different agro-hydrological

system for the southwest region and indentified polders will be analyzed. Based on the resilience and

the anticipated impacts different adaptation strategies will be devised such as improvement of drainage

canals, operation of sluices, strengthening of embankments, dredging, and restoration of dry season

freshwater flow for flushing salinity as well as restoration of the ecosystem. Specific adaptation

strategies for choice and selection of the crops/aquaculture during different seasons and their salinityand submergence tolerance will be developed in consultation with G2. Collaboration shall be developed

with G3 and G5 projects for information on community/ institutional management of the resources and

the operation of the water infrastructure and its governance at the polder level. Implications of these

adaptation strategies will be determined using the models and stakeholder consultation. Polder-specific

impacts and economic implications will be also analyzed. These upscaling and downscaling will be

conducted through G5. Moreover, linkage with TWG on resilience will be established through G5 in

order to devise resilience strategies.

4. What are the implications of policy changes and its applications to cope with anticipated changes?

What strategies can be put in place to influence policy makers and stakeholders to adapt to

anticipated changes?The implications of major national policies including the national water policies, agricultural policy,

environment policy, disaster management policy, climate change adaptation strategy and action plan


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(BCCSAP), and water sharing agreements will be reviewed to identified their specific relevance to the

present context and to determine what changes may be effective in coping with the anticipated

changes. Specific development programs like IPSWAM, WAMIP, and CEIP, and those being conducted

by LGED, Department of Fisheries and other organizations will be also analyzed to identify possible

policy changes.

The project shall then endeavour to develop potential strategies for consideration of the policymakers

and major stakeholders involving G5. These strategies, both short and long term, shall be specific to the

identified polders, for the south west region as a whole and Bangladesh. The project shall conduct a

number of well-designed and targeted policy dialogues, round tables, one-to-one meetings with the key

change agents and polder level meetings with the key stakeholders for familiarising them with the

external drivers of change and their potential future impacts on water resources. These upscaling and

downscaling will be conducted through G5. The project shall also develop high quality policy and media

briefs, and electronic and published communication material for facilitating the informed decisions on

policy changes. Extensive field visits and interaction meetings of the water control agencies and

policymakers will be conducted to influence policymakers and stakeholders to adapt to anticipated

changes. National stakeholder workshops and local training sessions will be conducted to disseminatethe effects of anticipated changes on water resources and importance of changing the policies to cope

with anticipated changes.


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1.3. Describe how (research) best bets are evolving based on interactionwith potential users and on accumulated learning by your project.

The study area of the project includes the coastal zone of Ganges delta in Bangladesh. However, three

specific polders were selected in the area for detailed analysis. These polders are situated in the highsalinity zone (polder 3), medium salinity zone (polder 30) and low salinity zone (polder 43/2F). From

field visits, FGDs and data analysis it has been found that the problems in these polders are diversified.

In Polder 3, salinity is a major problem for agriculture as well as for drinking purpose. This polder is

surrounded by Ichhamoti River, Kansiali River and Habra Khal. There are agricultural land as well as

shrimp ghers in this polder. Salinity in these rivers rises above 20ppt in dry period. The salinity in the

Ichhamoti and Kansiali rivers starts dropping in mid-June and drops below 5 ppt in mid-July. However,

water in Habra khal remains saline because there is lack of freshwater flow from the upstream. In this

polder three agricultural crops are not possible due to salinity. But combination of shrimp and

Transplanted -aman rice is possible because of freshwater availability during Kharif-II season. Local

people have constructed a large number of informal cuts and pipes to flush saline water for shrimp

culture. Fishers flush the shrimps fields by river water in every spring tide i.e. during new and fullmoon. However, these cuts and pipes hamper safety of the polder and generate huge social problems

and conflicts between BWDB and fishers. The ground reality is that the present scenario is very much

different from the 1970s when BWDB constructed the polders and drainage system. Proper

management and improvement of drainage and flushing system can be ensured by revisiting the

problems and water infrastructure of the area. Building some planned flushing sluices, excavation of the

canals and planned agriculture-aquaculture system will ensure enhanced production of agriculture and

aquaculture.

Rotational cropping system: agriculture and

aquaculture at Debhata, Polder-3

Internal canals to carry saline water to the ghers

at Shannashir Chak Polder-3 on 9th June 2011

Shrimp ghers at Shannashir Chak, Polder-3

Internal canals to carry saline water to the ghers

at Shannashir Chak, Polder-3 on 16th Aug 2011


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In polder 30, water-logging is the major problem. This problem has arisen due to sedimentation of the

riverbeds and drainage khals. Khals have been leased to people who have blocked them by net-pata,

cross-dams etc. for fish-culture or filled them up for agriculture. The riverbeds have silted up because of

reduced upstream flow and polderization of the floodplains. Sediment carried by sea water during

flood tide cannot be flushed by upstream flow and deposit on the riverbed. Tidal river management

(TRM) can be a good solution for water logging problem in this polder. TRM solved the water-logging

problem in polder-24. Local people are also interested in TRM if proper crop compensation is ensured.

Drainage congestion at Gangarampur, Polder-30

Blockage of khal by cross-dam in Polder-30

Polder raised by local people beside Pussur river

Sedimentation at outfall of regulator in Polder-30

Inadequate water flow in irrigation khals inPolder 43/2F

Inactive structure at Angulkata, Polder 43/2F


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In polder 43/2F, freshwater is available in the surrounding rivers. However, due to sedimentation and

blockage of the khal system irrigation water is not available during Rabi period. Most of the khals have

been silted up due to lack of maintenance and leasing. The connectivity of the khal system is also

hampered by unplanned roads. Moreover, existing water control structures are insufficient for the

polder. Providing more flushing sluices, excavation of existing water control structures, increasing

functionality of WMAs are potential solutions of the water problem in the area. Local people also

suggested raising of the polder heights and building more cyclone shelters because there were huge

losses in SIDR in this polder.

1.4. Surprise and success

Freshwater is available in the peripheral rivers of Polder-43/2F during Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II

seasons. However, farmers cannot utilize the water to increase crop yield and crop intensity due to

inadequate water control structures and connectivity of the khal system. Freshwater can be made

available by improving irrigation and drainage system.

During community consultation, we were surprised to observe that local people have knowledge on

salinity level variation with time and they flush the water into the Khal system of the polder for

irrigation of T-aman in time without measuring the salinity level and they also know that at the

particular station water becomes saline at present in the early months of late monsoon compared to

past years. This phenomenon of salinity variation has been found in the analysis of collected data under

this project.

We are proud that we could adopt an innovative way of selecting external drivers through participation

of local community, stakeholders and experts of different disciplines. The G4 team developed a

comprehensive list of external drivers based on past researches, global literature review, interaction

with the major stakeholders and peers. This list was then put under a well designed priority and ranking

criteria for identification of the key external drivers and prioritization. Focus group discussions werecarried out in the selected polders to find the major issues prevailing there and find the external drivers

acting behind the issues. Finally the key external drivers are selected by a triangulation workshop.


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Section 2: Outputs and programmatic contributions

2.1. Present your projects milestone plan

Milestones = yourprogress markers Deadline ResponsibleInstitution ResponsibleProject StaffOutputsrequired by

other

projects?

Means ofverification,

(including links to

reports)

Status reporton delivery

of

milestones

Sites selected and

partners for

research and

planning

engagement

identified and

engaged

2011/08/30 IWM ZHK G1, G2, G3,

G5: Study

location

map

Map of selected

sites

MoU with

partners

Delivered

Project reports 2011/11/032012/03/18 IWM ZHK Workplan,data &

information

needed by

G1, G2, G3,

G5

Six/monthlyreports

Delivered

Identified external

drivers

2011/12/31 IWM ZHK G1, G2, G3,

G5: Review

and priority

ranking

List of selected

external drivers &

report

Will be

uploaded to

wiki soon1

Tour reports 2011/12/31

2012/03/29

IWM ZHK No Uploaded to

wikiMeeting minutes 2011/09/31

2011/12/31IWM ZHK No Delivered

Selected climate

change models

2011/11/30 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No List of selected

climate change

models

Model

selected, will

be included

in the report

on climate

change

model

Calibrated and

validated RCMs

2012/02/29 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No Report on model

development,calibration and

validation

Will be

included inthe report on

climate

change

model2

Baseline climate

condition

established

2012/03/31 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No Baseline data

(generated by

model)

Will be

included in

the report on

climate

change

model


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Establishment of

climate change

projections:

temperature,

precipitation, sea

level rise

2012/07/31 IWFM-BUET AKMSI No Temperature,

precipitation, sea

level rise data

(generated by

model) for

climate change

scenario in 2020,

2030 & 2050

Work in

progress, will

be included

in the report

on climate

change

model

Selected model for

flooding, drainage

congestion, water

flow, salinity and

storm surge

2011/12/31 IWM ZHK Report on

selected models

Was

presented in

the Inception

workshop of

GBDC

Final selection of

climate and

cross/boundary

flow data for

generating

boundary for flow

and salinity models

2012/03/31 IWM ZHK Data analysis

report

Selected

Developed

calibrated and

validated GBM

basin model,

SWRM and BoB

model

2012/02/29 IWM ZHK Report on model

development,

calibration and

validation

Work in

progress

1Carrying out FGDs for was not planned earlier. It was later included to select the list of the external

drivers in a more participatory way. This took more time and the whole process delayed than expected.

However, it is expected that the milestone will be achieved by March 2012.2 It took more time than anticipated to get approval from BUET authority and signing of the MoU. As a

result the climate change modelling works started later than expected. It will not affect overall progress

of the project.


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2.2. Contributions to and from the BDC and its projects, joint work

Contribution to other BDC projects Significance of your contribution to other BDC projects objectives

(i.e., outputs, outcomes)

1. The FGD results: problems and

potential solutions

Local peoples view on their problems and probable solutions will

help other Gs to have a better idea of the problems.2. Surface water salinity monitoring

inside the polders and in the

peripheral rivers

The salinity in the river and khal water varies over the year. G2

can plan their agriculture/aquaculture system in the polders on

the basis of these data. G3 can plan a good water governance

system using this information. Identification of the surface water

salinity condition will enable us to achieve the GBDC goal of

increasing the resilience of agricultural and aquaculture systems

in coastal Ganges.

Contribution from other BDC projects Significance of their contribution to your projects objectives (i.e.,

outputs, outcomes)

1.Bi/monthly meetings The bi/monthly meetings arranged by G5 have been immensely

helpful to review the progress and sharing information.Work carried out jointly Significance of the work carried out jointly to projects and BDC

objectives (i.e., outputs, outcomes)

1. Some surface water salinity

stations of G4 and soil salinity

stations of G2 have been established

ointly

The measurements of these stations will enable the researchers

to establish relationship between surface water and soil salinity.

This relationship will be beneficial to GBDC and other researches.

2. G4 and G3 members visited polder

3 and 30 jointly to carry out FGDs

with local farmers and fishers.

The FGDs were carried out to identify their problems and

potential solutions. The views of the local people have helped the

G3 and G4 team about the local conditions.

3. Selection of the study area The study polders have been selected with consultation with the

others Gs. This will help GBDC to have all the aspects(agriculture/aquaculture, water management, freshwater

availability) in the same polders.

Contribution to the BDC as a whole Significance of your contribution to the BDC as a whole

1. The FGD results: problems and

potential solutions

Local peoples view on their problems and probable solutions will

help the GBDC to have a better idea of the problems.

2. Climate change projections The climate change projections will help GBDC to have some idea

of the future climate scenario and plan accordingly.

2.3. Partnerships

It was an immense opportunity to work with the partners (IWMI, BWDB, IWFM/BUET). All the partnersshared their knowledge and experience in identifying the key external drivers. The questionnaire was

formatted in a meeting of IWM, BWDB and IWFM/BUET. IWMI researchers made necessary

modifications to the draft of the questionnaire. The G4 partners (along with some researchers of G3)

participated in the FGDs. BWDB field officials had extended enormous support for arranging the FGDs.

All the partners has important role in successful completion of the workshop for finalizing the external

drivers.

IWFM/BUET researchers are the pioneer in climate modelling in Bangladesh. IWM and IWFM/BUET

team jointly worked for downscaling of climate data and future climate projections. It helped in capacity

building of IWM junior staff in climate modelling.


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2.4. Gender and diversity integration

We carried out several FGDs in polders 3, 30 and 43/2F for identification of water issues in those

polders. Local farmers and fishers participated in the FGDs. We tried to ensure active participation of

female farmers and fishers. Sometimes, we had challenges to bring women participants in a large scale.

2.5. Contribution to and from Topic Working Groups (TWG)

Contribution to TWGs (specify) Significance of contribution to project and BDC objectives (i.e.,

outputs, outcomes)

1. Spatial Analysis and

Modelling/TWG

One of the objectives of the SAM/TWG is to develop and share

global data sets including climate reanalysis. Our freshwater

availability and salinity zoning maps in present and climate

change conditions may be useful in that context.

2.

3.

Contribution from any TWG (specify) Significance of contribution to project and BDC objectives (i.e.,

outputs, outcomes)1. Global Drivers /TWG The GD/TWG is expected to develop a new foresight

methodology to explore a range of possible future scenarios. G4

can use the methodology to generate future scenarios with

combinations of several external drivers for their modelling and

projection purpose.

2. Global Drivers /TWG We can use their projection of climate change and sea level rise.


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2.6. Research publications and communication outputs

Output Type

(see above)

Reference (Author, year, title/ output name, etc.) Target audience (as in OLM) How disseminated / promoted /

used

Any feedback on its

use, or how

monitored/ evaluated

Conference

and Seminar

Paper

Global Drivers that influences water productivity, food

security and livelihood of the local people in the coastal areas

of Ganges Basin, Khan et. al 2011

Other researchers IFWF3 paper presentation

Report Report on field visit and FGD in Polder 3 and 30 Researchers of G1, G2, G3

and other ongoing projects

GBDC Wiki

Report Report on field visit and FGD in Polder 43/2F Researchers of G1, G2, G3

and other ongoing projects

GBDC Wiki

Report Inception report of the project Researchers of G1, G2, G3

and other ongoing projects,

other basins of CPWF

Added to GBDC Inception Report


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2.7. Capacity building of people engaged in the project

FAMILY NAME, Given

Name

Gender Nationality Level (e.g., MSc, PhD), affiliated

University/ type of training

Research / thesis subject Output and/or OP*

Begum, Morsheda Female Bangladeshi M.Sc., BUET Impact of climate change on salinity intrusion in the

south/west region of Bangladesh (planned)

Training on salinity

modelling

Khan, Md. Nasim Al

Azad

Male Bangladeshi M.Sc., BUET Vulnerability assessment of the coastal polders for storm surge

flooding (planned)

Training on

storm/surge

modelling


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2.8. Outreach to actors or actor groups identified in the OLMs or others

Type of outreach activities (e.g. informal/

formal meeting, stakeholder consultation,

seminar, training, forum)

Actors/ Actor groups (taken from OLM or

any other newly identified target group).

How many participants (gender/ diversity

distribution)?

Dates, venue (location,

country)

Any feedback or how monitored/evaluated? Any

evidence that your outreach activities led to

some positive change?

Focus Group Discussion (Polder/30) Local farmers (3 women, 20 men) 18th September 2011,

Phultola, Batiaghata,Khulna, Bangladesh

To identify local problems of water resources and

probable solutions in a participatory way. Theparticipants became aware of our objective.

Focus Group Discussion (Polder/30) Local fishers (6 women, 9 men) 18th September 2011,

Kismat Phultala,

Batiaghata, Khulna,

Bangladesh


probable solutions in a participatory way. The

participants became aware of our objective.

Focus Group Discussion (Polder/3) Local farmers (2 women, 8 men) 19th September 2011,

Nalta, Satkhira,

Bangladesh




Focus Group Discussion (Polder/3) Local fishers (15 men) 19th September 2011,

Bhara/Simla, Kaliganj,

Satkhira, Bangladesh




Focus Group Discussion (Polder/43/2F) Local farmers (7 women, 15 men) 27th February, 2011,

Amtali, Barguna,

Bangladesh




Opinion surveyfor selecting key external drivers

Experts and researchers To prioritize the key external drivers. Theparticipants became aware of our objective.

Interaction Meeting Chief Engineer, Khulna, BWDB 18th September, 2012,

BWDB, Khulna,

Bangladesh

He has realized the need of adaptation measured

to meet the consequence of external drivers for

water management in the polder and requested

the potential measures from the research for

preparing developing project proforma for

implementation.


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19 | Page PPR

Interaction Meeting Dr. Nilufa Islam, Director (Technical),

Water Resources Planning Organization

(WARPO) and

Md. Saiful Hossain, Principal Scientific

Officer, Engineering Section, WARPO

23rd February, 2012,

IWM office, Dhaka,

Bangladesh

Understanding has been developed to assess the

likely changes of water resources in future. They

requested the research results to use in

preparing the regional plan at macro level.

Interaction Meeting Catherine, Deputy team leader, Delta

Plan 2100

7th March, 2012, IWM

office, Dhaka,

Bangladesh

Surface water resource assessment at present

condition and external rivers. She emphasized

the need of available water resources at present

and requested the results of this investigation for

their use in delta plan.


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Section 3: Outcomes

3.1. Working towards developmental goals

Awareness and understanding on the external drivers of change have already been developed among

farmers, BWDB, LGED, WARPO, Water Management Associations, local government institutions since

the project activities have been carried out through interaction meetings, field visits, focus group

discussions and workshops.

3.2.Your projects theory of change

Broader problems and their determinants have been ascertained in accordance with the problem tree.In the next step we established a set of outputs in relation to determinants.

Networking has been established with local farmers, ongoing projects, organizations, WMAs of polder

30 & 24, and local government institutions of polder 3 & 43/2F to exchange data, information,

knowledge and outputs.

The existing outcome Logic model (OLM) has been revisited and redesigned in accordance with the

Theory of Change.

3.3. Challenges when working towards developmental goals

CPWF can help in developing scenarios with the external drivers and building consensus with Gs and

stakeholders. Close interaction and cooperation with TWG-GD and Resilience is needed. CPWF can play

an effective and vital role to assist G4 in this perspective.


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Section 4: Financial Management

4.1. Summary financial reportTime

1 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 CompletionReport and Final

Audit for project

closureProgress

ReportProgress

Report 1Progress

Report 2Progress

Report1

Progress

Report 2Progress

Report 1Progress

Report 2(thousands of $US) US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$

1Value of tranche

payment received this

report period138,511

2Value of tranche

payments received to

date

138,511

3Value of expenditures

or report period123,088

4Cumulative value of

expenditures to date123,088

5Balance held against

cumulative tranche

payments15,423

6Value of committed

unds15,423*

* The first payment to IWFM/BUET (US$ 12,040) was made on Jan 17, 2012 and the first payment to IWMI (US$ 32,627) was

made on Jan 22, 2012.

I certify that the summary financial report is correct

Chief financial officer:

Date:

4.2. Project leaders commentary on the summary financial report

Please explain any significant commitments currently being held:

Commitment is held against payment to which partners or

providers?

Amount,

USDExpected date of

expenditure

The remuneration, travel and accommodation cost for the support staffs have exceeded the budget

because the surveying and data collection cost was high in the first year of the project.

The budgets for remuneration of consultant, stakeholder and reflection workshop were under/spent.

These items were spent for the remuneration, travel and accommodation of support staffs. These

expenditures were higher because we had to carry out extensive field survey and primary data collection

in the first year of the project.

1Adjust the dates to fit with our contract period


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Section 5: Implications for future action

5.1. Response to previous change requests

What were the requests made in the MT

evaluation of your Project Inception Report?

Describe and provide evidence of what you did to

address the issues

1. BL: Long-term water flow data in upper

Ganges basin (Indian part) is needed for

modelling of water resources in the Ganges

basin. IWMI is to take action to collect long

term water flow data preferably from

research stations, and other development

organizations by May 2012 if not possiblefrom Government sources.

The transboundary flow data in baseline condition

and for external drivers is needed for modelling of

water resources in the study area. IWMI is supposed

to provide the baseline data and data generated

from SWAT and WEAP model results.

2. MT: Regarding the OLM, suggest the farmers

or the respondents in the focus group

discussions and consultations should also be

included as actors. Focus group discussion is a

two way learning process- we get information

from them, and they learn from our analysis

of their responses. The change is they will

become more aware of the effects of externaldrivers to their sources of livelihoods.

OLM has been revised with farmers as actors. The

participation of farmers in the Focus group

discussions will enhance their perspective of

external drivers on their livelihood sources.

3. Update project workbook: write the status of

progress in the milestone plan

Updated

4. Prepare financial report and invoice for the 2nd

payment if not done so already

Done and sent with the invoice of the 2nd

payment.

5. Submit other documents that were not

included in the inception report: CVs of other

team members, signed LOA, 3rd party IP audit

The CVs were sent with the project proposal. Signed

MoUs with the partners have been submitted with

the Inception Report.

6. Tighten up the OTIP plan with implementation

in mind

We re-visited the OTIP and made it specific for

selected users .


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23 | Page PPR

5.2. Emerging opportunities and risks

Emerging opportunities Implications for future

action

Output/OP

1.Results of climate projection by TWG-GD Use of data on climate

projections, enrichment of

literature review

Data, information, reports

2. GD-TWG will develop a new foresight

methodology to explore a range of possible

future scenarios

Improved methodology for

developing future scenarios

to be simulated by models

Development of scenarios. It

will help assessing the impact

of external drivers on water

resources

Emerging risks Implications for future

action

Output/OP

1. Triangulation of the results of our FGDs

with local community with the findings of

G2 and G3 is important. However, there is a

risk of timely and fruitful triangulation.

The risk may be minimized

by interaction and help of

G5 communication

Use of the results by other Gs.

5.3. Assistance needed

Assistance needed with By whom (e.g. TWGs and/or the

CPWF Research Team, Coordination

Project and/ or CPWF KM team)

Why is it important?

Methodology for

developing scenarios

TWG-GD TWG-GD is preparing a new

foresight methodology to explore a

range of possible future scenarios.It will enrich the scenario

generation methodology of G4

Assistance with M&E G5 and/or CPWF KM team It is important for assessing the

baseline and measure progress

Communication with other

Gs and upscaling and

outscaling of research

results

G5 G5 is providing good support for

communicating with the other Gs.

The communication with different

actors will help for achieving the

outcomes.

5.4. Feedback for improving this reporting format

5.5. Additional comments


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Annual Report ME G4 15 Mar 2012

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