Annual Planning Survey 2015 - London
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glhearn.com
Shaun Andrews, Head of London Strategy 13 October 2015
Annual Planning Survey 2015
#PlanningSurvey
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Be part of the conversation
• #PlanningSurvey
• @GL_Hearn
• @BritProp
• @CapitaProperty
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#planningsurvey
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APS Survey
Major Applications: Bristol area
2012 2013 2014
Major Applications: London
Major Applications: Greater Manchester
2011
* * * NPPF
2015
* Conservative-Lib
Dem coalition Conservative
majority
#PlanningSurvey
5,400+ applications reviewed and 800+ opinions canvassed over four years
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LPA and Applicant Survey
Structured online research
Conducted June/July 2015
271 Applicants
30 Local Planning Authorities (LPAs)
Major Applications Research
Greater London (33 LPAs*)
Greater Manchester (10 LPAs)
Bristol and surrounding area (4 LPAs)
FOI requests and desk research
*Relatively recently formed LLDC not included in research to allow for year-on-year comparisons. In 2014-15, LLDC determined 11 major planning applications
2015 Survey and Research – Scope
#PlanningSurvey
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1. ‘What’s happening on the ground?’ Major planning application determination volumes, approval rates and speed
2. ‘What’s the mood amongst those involved?’ Opinions on existing policies, future priorities and barriers to growth
#PlanningSurvey
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Volume of major applications determined*
Overall London Greater Manchester
Bristol & surrounding
area
-14%
-26%
+19%
1,495
1,289
1,075
775
1,021
758
389 294 351
180 180
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
*Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
#PlanningSurvey
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23 of 33 London boroughs have seen fall in major applications* determined compared to 2013/14
Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
*Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED #PlanningSurvey
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cha
nge
in m
ajor
app
licat
ion*
det
erm
inat
ion
vol
umes
from
201
3/14
to 2
014/
15
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Approval rates have been largely constant over four years
APPROVAL RATES Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Overall
London
Greater Manchester
Bristol & surrounding area
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
86%
84%
96%
86%
#PlanningSurvey
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London and Greater Manchester have both experienced an increase in average determination times
Overall London Greater Manchester
Bristol & surrounding
area
Average submission to determination time (weeks)
+4 weeks +6 weeks
+3 weeks -4 weeks
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
28
32
37
27 28
34
27 24
31 27
DETERMINATION TIMES Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research #PlanningSurvey
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Five LPAs perform strongly when volume linked to time
Note; Three LPAs excluded from graph due average determination times of greater than one year *Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED AND DETERMINATION TIMES Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Num
ber o
f maj
or a
pplic
atio
ns*
dete
rmin
ed (2
014/
15)
Average submission to determination time (weeks)
Westminster
Bristol City Bolton
Manchester City S. Gloucestershire
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London: Lower volumes and delays returning
NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS DETERMINED Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
*Full, new/primary applications only; s73 amendment applications have been excluded
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Volume*
Approval rate Time (weeks)
Submission to determination
1075
775
1021
758
85% 84% 86% 84%
37
27 28
34
NPPF
#PlanningSurvey
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#PlanningSurvey
1. ‘What’s happening on the ground?’ Major planning application determination volumes, approval rates and speed
2. ‘What’s the mood amongst those involved?’ Opinions on existing policies, future priorities and barriers to growth
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3 in 4 applicants are now dissatisfied with the time a typical planning application takes…
Base: All applicants (271) Q: Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the length of time a typical planning application takes to reach a decision?
28% 47% 18% 7%
Very dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied Very satisfied
75% dissatisfied or very dissatisfied
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
#PlanningSurvey
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…and dissatisfaction with determination times shows gradual deterioration
Base: All applicants (271) Q: Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the length of time a typical planning application takes to reach a decision?
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
19% 51% 18% 11%
Very dissatisfied Dissatisfied Neutral Satisfied Very satisfied
2015
2014
2013
14% 57% 20% 7%
28% 47% 18% 7%
#PlanningSurvey
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LPAs think the planning environment is worse now than it was 5 years ago
Base: All respondents from LPAs (28) and private applicants (263) answering the question Q: Overall, do you think that the planning environment now is better or worse than it was when the previous Government came to power in 2010?
About the same – 25% About the same – 42%
Applicants LPAs
Worse 39%
Better 25%
Much worse 11%
Worse 17%
Much better = 3%
Better 32%
Much worse = 7%
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
#PlanningSurvey
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NPPF is seen to have increased development activity
Base: All respondents from LPAs (24-29) and private applicants (203-248) answering the question Q: Specifically, how effective do you feel each of the following policies have been at increasing the level of development in the UK?
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
4% 4% 14% 36% 43%
4% 21% 51% 23%
Decreased activity a lot Decreased activity a little No impact Increased activity a little Increased activity a lot
LPAs
Applicants
#PlanningSurvey
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But both LPAs and applicants think Neighbourhood Plans and CIL have had a negative impact
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research Base: All respondents from LPAs (24-29) and applicants (203-248) answering the question Q: Specifically, how effective do you feel each of the following policies have been at increasing the level of development in the UK?
11%
32%
19%
56%
48%
8%
19%
4%
4%
CIL
NeighbourhoodPlans
10%
9%
45%
35%
35%
37%
7%
17%
3%
2%
CIL
NeighbourhoodPlans
Decreased a lot Decreased a little No impact Increased a little Increased a lot
LPAs
Applicants
#PlanningSurvey
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Around one in three applicants and LPAs would like to abandon CIL and Neighbourhood Plans
Neighbourhood Plans CIL NPPF
38%
2%
60%
14%
57%
29%
13%
53%
34%
Key: Keep the policy but make some changes
Keep the policy exactly the same
Abandon the policy completely
Base: All LPAs (22-29) and applicants (174-239) answering the question Q: What advice would you give the new Government in relation to each of the following existing policies?
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
#PlanningSurvey
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
LPAs
Applicants
Priorities for LPAs and applicants
Invest in infrastructure
Accelerate housing delivery
Regenerate brownfield
Increase affordable housing
Invest in commercial space
Densification
COMMON AIMS LPA AIMS
LOW PRIORITIES
Brownfield regeneration, accelerated housing delivery and investment in infrastructure are common aims
Base: All LPAs (30) and applicants (271) Q: Thinking about your organisation, which, if any, of the following are priorities for you?
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
#PlanningSurvey
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But not everyone has confidence in government to support housing delivery
Base: All LPAs (5-24) and applicants (85-161) answering the question Q: And how confident are you that the new Government will help enable each of the following?
Confidence in government to support priorities…
LPA AND APPLICANT SURVEYS Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
#PlanningSurvey
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Applicants see the planning system as the biggest barrier to accelerating housing delivery
18%
25%
26%
29%
43%
52%
9%
19%
38%
41%
44%
69%
Lack of demand from buyers
Securing funding for developments
CIL
High requirement for affordable housing
Shortage of land
The planning system
Major barriers to increasing the rate of housing delivery (Applicants only)
20152014
Base: All applicants quoting ‘accelerating housing delivery’ as a priority (160) Q: Which, if any, of the following do you see as major barriers to increasing the rate of housing delivery?
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
INC
RE
AS
ING
B
AR
RIE
RS
FA
LLIN
G
BA
RR
IER
S
Increasing determination times; falling satisfaction levels; policies reducing development activity
#PlanningSurvey
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London: Challenging times for major planning & housing
Major planning
Housing delivery
*Submission to determination; Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
Construction London 2nd most expensive city to build
#PlanningSurvey
2013/14
2014/15
2014/15
2013/14
Volume of determinations
-26%
Average time*
+21%
London First suggested annual target
London mayoral target
Actual completions (2014/15)
52,000
42,000
18,260
Average time*
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And nearly 9 in 10 LPAs are struggling with under-resourcing
28%
34%
36%
55%
48%
28%
46%
31%
Lack of funding for developments
Shortage of land
Aligning aims of LPAs and developers
Under-resourcing
Challenges to achieving LPA aims (LPAs only)
Significant challenge Challenge Small or no challenge
Base: All LPAs answering the question (28-29) Q: To what extent do you expect the following to be challenges to your organisation achieving its aims for the next 5 years?
LPA SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
#PlanningSurvey
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65% Would pay more in return for improved
service
25% Unhappy but
wouldn’t affect
development activity
11%
Negatively impact development activity
Around two-thirds of applicants would happily pay more fees in return for a better service
Base: All applicants answering the question (248) Q: If planning fees were to increase on the promise of a better service, what would be your reaction?
APPLICANT SURVEY Source: GL Hearn and Circle Research
#PlanningSurvey
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The planning system needs
investment
#PlanningSurvey
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‘Get Britain Planning’
Rethink: • CIL and Neighbourhood Plans
Streamline and simplify: • The major planning application process • Strengthen PPAs – ‘Service Delivery Agreements’
Invest in: • Local Planning Authorities – review planning application fees
#PlanningSurvey
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glhearn.com
Steve Morgan OBE, Chairman and Founder of Redrow plc 13 October 2015
The developer’s response
#PlanningSurvey
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glhearn.com
Ed Watson, Director of Culture and Environment, Camden Council 13 October 2015
Local authority’s response
#PlanningSurvey
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camden.gov.uk
13 October 2014
Ed Watson Director of Culture and Environment Camden
System in Crisis? A System in Crisis? Ed Watson Director – Culture and Environment
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camden.gov.uk
WELCOME TO CAMDEN
• Volume of majors • Success
redefined? • Resources – what
would make it easier?
• Getting Britain Planning
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camden.gov.uk
Success redefined?
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camden.gov.uk
Number of Majors
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camden.gov.uk
The ‘old’ system July to November 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
01/0
701
/07
02/0
703
/07
03/0
707
/07
08/0
709
/07
10/0
711
/07
14/0
715
/07
16/0
717
/07
18/0
721
/07
23/0
723
/07
24/0
725
/07
25/0
728
/07
29/0
730
/07
31/0
701
/08
04/0
805
/08
06/0
806
/08
07/0
808
/08
11/0
812
/08
13/0
813
/08
15/0
819
/08
20/0
821
/08
21/0
826
/08
27/0
801
/09
02/0
903
/09
03/0
905
/09
08/0
909
/09
10/0
911
/09
15/0
915
/09
16/0
917
/09
17/0
919
/09
22/0
923
/09
24/0
925
/09
29/0
930
/09
01/1
003
/10
03/1
007
/10
08/1
010
/10
13/1
013
/10
15/1
017
/10
20/1
021
/10
23/1
024
/10
27/1
029
/10
29/1
031
/10
04/1
105
/11
06/1
107
/11
10/1
112
/11
13/1
114
/11
17/1
118
/11
18/1
120
/11
21/1
124
/11
24/1
125
/11
25/1
1
E2E days Average = 106 days UCL = 298 days LCL = 1 day
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
08/0
7/14
11/0
7/14
15/0
7/14
18/0
7/14
24/0
7/14
30/0
7/14
08/0
8/14
11/0
8/14
14/0
8/14
22/0
8/14
02/0
9/14
10/0
9/14
15/0
9/14
19/0
9/14
29/0
9/14
09/1
0/14
09/1
0/14
13/1
0/14
15/1
0/14
17/1
0/14
19/1
0/14
23/1
0/14
27/1
0/14
31/1
0/14
03/1
1/14
06/1
1/14
13/1
1/14
14/1
1/14
14/1
1/14
20/1
1/14
21/1
1/14
24/1
1/14
25/1
1/14
27/1
1/14
01/1
2/14
01/1
2/14
03/1
2/14
03/1
2/14
04/1
2/14
08/1
2/14
09/1
2/14
09/1
2/14
10/1
2/14
12/1
2/14
16/1
2/14
19/1
2/14
23/1
2/14
23/1
2/14
24/1
2/14
06/0
1/15
07/0
1/15
08/0
1/15
12/0
1/15
13/0
1/15
14/0
1/15
16/0
1/15
19/0
1/15
21/0
1/15
23/0
1/15
27/0
1/15
27/0
1/15
29/0
1/15
03/0
2/15
05/0
2/15
06/0
2/15
11/0
2/15
12/0
2/15
16/0
2/15
20/0
2/15
23/0
2/15
24/0
2/15
25/0
2/15
27/0
2/15
02/0
3/15
03/0
3/15
04/0
3/15
06/0
3/15
09/0
3/15
10/0
3/15
10/0
3/15
12/0
3/15
13/0
3/15
16/0
3/15
17/0
3/15
17/0
3/15
18/0
3/15
20/0
3/15
20/0
3/15
25/0
3/15
26/0
3/15
26/0
3/15
27/0
3/15
30/0
3/15
31/0
3/15
E2E Average - 49.43 UCL - 109 LCL - 10.23
The ‘new’ system July 2014 to March 2015
Development Management: No. of days from each customer’s initial contact to the customer receiving decision
Timeliness
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camden.gov.uk
Better for customers - withdrawn
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camden.gov.uk
Better for Customers - refused
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camden.gov.uk
outcome
• “Genuinely surprised about how quickly it took to deal with the application”
• “I thought it was a good service. Friendly, relatively quick and clear”
• “The case officer who dealt with the application was very helpful and process went very well”
• “Outstanding the best service I've had. You've set the bar for the rest”
• “Very smooth and efficient planning process! Probably the best from all the LA's we
have to deal with. Also, I quite like the accessibility of the planning officers.” • “It's a terrific improvement. I'm going to fall off my chair with surprise at how quickly you
dealt with the application” • This new approach helps everyone in the development process. My client will be so
happy and can get the builders on site asap.
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camden.gov.uk
Resources
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camden.gov.uk
• Money helps • Appetite for fees in return for service • Puts out burning platform…?
But • like housing – supply is the problem
Resources
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camden.gov.uk
Resources
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camden.gov.uk
“Hampstead housing scheme opposed Actor Jim Carter is leading a campaign against plans for a housing regeneration scheme in West Hampstead. Camden Council plans to build 191 homes and shops in three six and seven-storey blocks in partnership with developer A2 Dominion. The council argues the project will raise funds for the town hall and provide social housing but homeowners fear the influx of new residents will add to congestion and put pressure on public services.” Evening Standard, Page: 35
Getting Britain Planning – less of this
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camden.gov.uk
Getting Britain Planning – less of this?
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camden.gov.uk
Getting Britain Planning – more of this?
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camden.gov.uk
Getting Britain Planning – more of this?
• Public sector land • Ability to borrow • Capacity in the development
industry • Understanding
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glhearn.com
Michael Bingham, Deputy Head, Development Plans & Performance, Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) 13 October 2015
DCLG Perspective
#PlanningSurvey
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glhearn.com
Melanie Leech, Chief Executive, BPF 13 October 2015
Debate, conclusions and next steps
#PlanningSurvey
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glhearn.com
Networking and refreshments in the foyer 13 October 2015
Thank you!
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