Annual General Meeting 21 May 2014 - Oracle Power PLC · PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK – PROJECTED...
Transcript of Annual General Meeting 21 May 2014 - Oracle Power PLC · PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK – PROJECTED...
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DISCLAIMER
SUMMARY
Oracle advancing its US$1.5bn integrated thermal coal and power plant project in Pakistan, the Thar Coalfield, Province of Sindh, Pakistan;
Oracle is in the process of securing funding from large Chinese groups and power off-take with K-Electric (formerly Karachi Electric Supply Company);
Block VI project is based on 5m tpa coal supplying 600 MW mine-mouth power plant;
Allowable Mine and Power Plant Project IRR of 20.5% in US dollar terms for life of project for projects that reach financial close before the end of 2014 and IRR of 20% in US dollar terms thereafter;
Strong federal and provincial government support.
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RISING ENERGY & COAL DEMAND
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• Pakistan has a population of 180m people, sixth largest in the world;
• GDP growth has averaged 4.8%;
• Pakistan relies on imports for more than 20% of its energy needs;
• Critical power shortage in Pakistan; regular power cuts and blackouts;
• Demand for electricity in Pakistan projected to outstrip supply over next 20 years;
• Domestic coal expected to become important as an energy resource;
• Coal burnt for power generation is expected to rise to 25% by 2025;
• Demand for domestic coal supported by steady rise in international energy prices;
• Over reliance on imports of energy; accounts for over 40% of energy use.
Coal accounts for less than 1% of Pakistan’s power sector ... The government projects a rise to 25% of the energy mix by 2025 as part of its energy plan
PAKISTAN’S POWER DEMAND SUPPLY
FORECAST & KEY INTITIATIVES
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Daimer – Basha Dam (4500 MW)
Average 2% Growth rate assumed
Thar Coal (1200 MW)
Peak Demand
Supply
Average 3% Growth rate based on GDP & Population
Growth
Only plants that have achieved or are likely to achieve financial close included in the supply forecast
Source : Thar Coal Energy Board, Government of Sindh
PAKISTAN ENERGY SECTOR – INSTALLED ELECTRICAL GENERATION CAPACITY
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Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2012
PAKISTAN ENERGY YEARBOOK – PROJECTED SUPPLY DEFICIT
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• Demand for electricity in Pakistan is projected to outstrip supply for next 20 years
• A critical power shortage that is worsening, with regular power cuts and blackouts in Karachi
-628 -470 -1,164
-1,910
-2,753
-8,298 -7,683
-10,821
-14,208
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Projected deficit
Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2012
THAR COALFIELD PROJECT
Located in Sindh Province, South Eastern Pakistan 380km east of Karachi sea port;
175 billion tonnes potential in the Thar coalfield of lignite coal, or 50 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (i.e. greater than the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia and Iran);
Supported by the Thar Coal & Energy Board which enables fast- tracking for Thar projects;
Located in a Special Economic Zone; provides tax incentives;
Cost-Plus Pricing Mechanism; immune to international seaborne coal prices;
Government is supportive and is promoting the use of domestic coal as alternative to imported oil & gas;
Sindh government – keen to progress development; Energy Department;
Sindh government undertaking a series of infrastructure development initiatives including the building of new roads to the coalfield and an airport to service the coalfield.
Sindh Province
Karachi Oracle Project
Area
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KEY DELIVERABLES 2012-2013
6 Feb ‘12
► Technical
Feasibility Study,
compiled by SRK
►JORC Code
compliant resource
►529Mwt in a 20km²
area of the license
►113 Mwt tonnes
JORC proven coal
reserves in Phase 1
12 Apr ’12
26 June ‘12
► Mining lease
issued to SCEL
(Oracle
subsidiary) for
Block VI Thar
Coalfield
► JDA signed
with KESC for
long-term coal
and water supply
to proposed 300
MW coal-fired
electric power
plant
24 July ’12
4 Sep ‘12
► Implementation
plan announced
for Thar Coalfield
including lower
CAPEX
requirements and
lower production
costs
24 Sep ‘13
►JDA with
China CAMC
Engineering Co
Ltd (CAMCE)
for funding and
the development
of its coal mine
21 Nov ‘13
►MOU with
SEPCO Electric
Power
Construction
Corporation for
the development
of a 600 MW
coal-fired power
plant at the Block
VI, Thar Coalfield
23 May ‘13
►Submitted the
ESIA to SEPA
followed by
Public Hearing
at Block VI site
in June 2013
► Environmental
NOC issued by
SEPA
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17 Jan ‘14
GROWTH STRATEGY 2014-2015 & KEY ISSUES
1H 2014
►Power Plant EPC
►Mine contractor
►Mine EPC
►Resettlement Plan
2H 2014
1H 2015
2H 2015
►Access road
►Offices &
accommodation
►Power plant
construction begins
►Dewatering begins
► Coal price
►Electricity tariff
►Transmission line
Planning
►Final Investment
Decision
►Overburden
removal
►Mine
construction
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STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIPS
SEPCO Electric Power Construction Corporation to develop 600 MW power plant
China CAMC Engineering for the development of the coal mine
K-Electric (formally Karachi Electric Supply Company) enter long term PPA and potential equity investor in the power plant
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MOU WITH CHINESE POWER GROUP ‘SEPCO’
SEPCO Electric Power Construction Corporation
One of China's leading power construction groups;
A company of Power Construction Corporation of China, a major state-owned power business;
Completed construction of 560 power generation units with a total installed capacity of over 93,000MW, transmission lines with a total length of over 18,000km.
Intention of MoU
The development of a 600 MW coal-fired power plant at the Block VI, Thar Coalfield, Province of Sindh, Pakistan;
Planning for an integrated power station to cover its design, construction and operation as well as the financing and investment required;
SEPCO will focus on the development and construction of the power plant;
Undertaking Power Plant feasibility study and EIA;
Provide equity and debt for power plant.
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JDA WITH CHINESE ENERGY GROUP ‘CAMCE’
China CAMC Engineering Co Ltd (CAMCE)
A subsidiary of China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH), which is a major state-owned industrial giant - a Global 500 enterprise;
Extensive experience in international project construction and management.
Intention of JDA
The funding for mine construction;
Mine development and production (*Note: In view of the partnership with SEPCO, CAMCE
shall develop the open-pit mine to support 600MW mine mouth power plant with estimated annual coal production of 5 million tonnes per annum);
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JDA WITH K-ELECTRIC
Intention of JDA
Enter long-term Power Purchase Agreement;
Initially develop 300MW mine-mouth power plant at Block VI site
(*Note: In view of the partnership with SEPCO, the development of power plant will be considered jointly with SEPCO taking the lead).
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AIM: ORCP
Mine Power Plant
*Sindh Electric Power Ltd
Ownership breakdown
Ownership breakdown
*To be registered with SECP
INTENDED COMPANY STRUCTURE
Sindh Carbon Energy Ltd
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BUSINESS MODEL
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Government of Sindh
K-ELECTRIC
Transmission Line
Coal Sales Agreement
Power Purchase Agreement, Implementation Agreement
Sindh Carbon Energy Limited
Mining Lease
NEPRA
Cement Other IPPs
(coal conversion)
NTDC
Sindh Electric Power Ltd
Coal Sales Agreements
Electricity tariff
DE-RISKING
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Technical & Operational risks reduced through the engagement of highly reputable advisors including SRK, Dargo Associates, Mott MacDonald and Wardell Armstrong.
Political and regulatory risks. Development of Thar coal recognised to be of critical importance to the country. If there are adverse regulatory changes, they should be compensated through the fixed IRR.
Security. The company has security precautions in place and will implement additional measures as the project develops.
Environmental and reputational risks. ESIA report prepared by Wardell Armstrong fully to internationally accepted standards. Social Responsibility Programme established, that includes the resettlement of local inhabitants.
Financing risks reduced through engaging with well-financed parties, CAMCE and SEPCO, to provide both debt and equity.
Exchange rate risk. The allowed IRR of 20.5% is US Dollar denominated.
SUMMARY POINTS
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Compelling valuation, attractive returns;
Oracle’s risk profile has reduced considerably;
New emphasis on the development of domestic energy; resources;
Power generation from Oracle’s Thar coal to be highly competitive;
Attractive development opportunity offering high returns;
Indigenous solution to energy shortage.
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CORPORATE OVERVIEW
Market cap (£m) 6.00* No. of shares (m) 327* *as of May 2014
Top 10 shareholders Shahrukh Khan 9.9% Andrew Neubauer 6.9% Starvest PLC 6.7% Sunvest Corporation 6.1% Merrion 4.2% Philip Richards 3.9% WH Ireland 3.9% Danske Bank 3.7% GH Pratt 3.2% B Rowan 3.1% Source: Argus Vickers as of February 2014
Nominated Adviser: Grant Thornton UK LLP
Broker: Peterhouse Capital
Solicitors : Trowers & Hamlins LLP UK
Hafeez Pirzada Law Associates / Haidermota & Co.
Corporate Advisers (Pakistan): A.F. Ferguson & Co
Auditors: Price Bailey LLP UK
Financial PR: Fortbridge Consulting /Blythe Weigh
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DIRECTORS
Adrian Loader
Chairman
► Extensive international experience from Royal Dutch Shell
►Held regional responsibility for Shell's operations in Pakistan
►Board Director of Holcim and Sherritt International
►Has previously been appointed to the following public
company boards - Alliance-Unichem, Shell Canada Ltd,
Alliance-Boots and Candax Energy Inc
Roderick Stead
Non-Executive Director
► Considerable experience in a wide variety of management
roles in the oil, gas, coal, mining and forestry industries in
different environments
►Board experience in over 25 companies
►Worked in several international locations for the Royal Dutch Shell Group of Companies
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Anthony Scutt
Senior Independent Non-Executive Director
► Qualified Chartered Secretary and a Certified Internal Auditor with the US Institute of Internal Auditors
►Over 30 years of financial management expertise with Shell International Petroleum
►A Non-Executive director of Starvest plc and Beowulf Mining plc
Shahrukh Khan
Chief Executive Officer
► Over nine years’ experience in project finance, with a particular focus upon the natural resource and
infrastructure related sector
►Specialist expertise in large and complex projects
SENIOR MANAGEMENT
Brian Rostron Mining & Contracts Manager ► More than 30 years experience within the civil engineering and mining sectors
►Worked with international mining consultancies on coal mining projects in Montenegro, Russia and Poland.
►He is a member of the Institution of Materials Minerals and Mining,
Simon Smith
Finance Manager
►Background in finance from a twenty-five year career in Shell, in a variety of posts.
►He was Finance Director in Sierra Leone and in Egypt where he also deputised for the Chief Executive. He also worked in Shell’s M&A unit, particularly on the sale of Billiton, Shell’s Metals division, the sale of Shell’s agrochemical interests and the early expansion into eastern Europe.
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Tony Everitt Company Secretary ► Awarded a BSc in Mathematics with Computer Science from Sussex University. Qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1991.The next 10 years were spent gaining a wide range of accounting, taxation and auditing experience in an accountancy practice before being admitted as a partner in 2001.
►He left the partnership in 2005 to form his own accountancy practice where he continues to operate as a sole practitioner.
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PAKISTAN POWER SECTOR -
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BREAKDOWN
Thermal electricity generation by fuel vs. fuel consumption for power generation
• Thermal electricity generation accounts for 67% of total power production that was circa 95,608 GWh. • Main suppliers of thermal electricity were WAPDA (Pakistani Water and Power Development Authority), KESC and IPPs. • Oil remains the most important contributor to thermal electricity generation, hence the most used fuel in this area with a high ACGR of 36.3% for diesel oil and 20.3% for furnace oil over past 6 years.
Main power suppliers by generation
Fuel type GWh % TOE %
Coal 116 0.2% 56,141 0.4%
Oil 36,175 56.2% 8,601,829 54.6%
Gas 28,079 43.6% 7,106,962 45.1%
Total 64,370 100.0% 15,764,932 100.0%
Power generation Fuel consumption
WAPDA 50.0%
HUBCO 9.2%
KAPCO 8.4%
KESC 8.4%
Uch 4.3%
Rousch 3.4%
PAEC 3.0%
Liberty 1.6%
Other IPPs 11.7%
Total 100.0%
% of total power generation
PAKISTAN ENERGY SECTOR –
PRINCIPAL ENERGY USERS
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Domestic, 21.6%
Commercial, 3.9%
Industrial, 40.3%
Agriculture, 2.2%
Transport, 30.1%
Other/Government Sector, 2.0%
Source : Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2012
Main energy users
Industrial sector use of energy was the highest
with focus on gas and coal.
• In absolute numbers industrial consumption
reached approximately 15.6m TOE.
• Gas accounted for 55.8%, coal for 27.4%, electricity
for 10.3% and oil for 6.4% of total energy used by
industrial companies.
• Share of oil has decreased significantly over past 6
years (ACGR of -8.2%) in benefit of gas and coal.
• Coal was consumed mostly by Brick Klin and
Cement.
Highest growth in consumption over past 6 years
was recorded in the commercial sector (ACGR 7.2%).
Main contributor in the commercial sector remains
the gas accounting for more than 50%.
PAKISTAN ENERGY SECTOR –
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE
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Coal, 0.10%
Oil, 37.80%
Gas, 29.40%
Hydel, 29.40%
Nuclear and Imported, 3.30%
Electricity generation by source
Coal use in power generation Coal-sources generation capacity is projected to increase substantially as part of the government’s energy plan. In 2011-12 coal accounted for less than 1% of Pakistan’s power sector which is expected to rise to 25% by 2025.
Source : Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2012
BLOCK VI COAL RESOURCE - 1
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Oracle Coalfields main resource, Thar Block VI, is located in Sindh Province, south eastern Pakistan some 380km east of Karachi’s sea port. It forms part of a 175bn lignite coalfield that extends for some 9,100 km²;
Extensive work has been undertaken on the assessment of the commercial viability of the resource by government initiatives and independent international consultants;
Following a drilling programme, SRK Consultants assessed a JORC mineral resource of 529m wet tonnes (mwt) over an area of 20 km² with proven reserves of 113mwt in Phase 1. Oracle’s total resource amounts to 1.4bn tonnes;
Commercially viable lignite coal, with low ash and sulphur content;
Lignite coal suitable for power generation and for industry use, in particular, the cement industry. These sectors are anticipated to be the main off-takers;
Moisture content averages 46%; there is potential to de-water and to supply other industries.
BLOCK VI COAL RESOURCE - 2
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• Coal in Phase 1 ranges between 16.9m to 39.76m lignite to sub-bituminous in rank;
• The average gross calorific value is 3,182 k cal/wet kg;
• The average ash content is 5.89% and the average sulphur content is 0.91%, as received.
Oracle Coalfields - JORC mineral resource, Phase 1 & 2
Resource Tonnage Moisture RD Gross CV Ash Sulphur
Mwt % wg/cu m kcal/wkg % %
Measured 151 48.0 1.15 3,025 5.10 0.60
Indicated 308 45.3 1.15 3,257 5.60 0.91
Sub total 459 46.2 1.15 3,181 5.44 0.81
Inferred 70 45.4 1.15 3,193 8.90 1.58
Total 529 46.1 1.15 3,182 5.89 0.91Source : SRK, Technical Feasibility Study
ENERGY CRISIS & COST TO THE ECONOMY
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Total cost of load shedding to the economy
Cost as percentage of GDP
Loss of employment in the economy
Loss of exports
USD 2.5 billion
2 % decrease
400,000 jobs
USD 1 Billion
Increasing dependence on expensive imported energy puts a severe constraint on ability to pay Import bill expected to increase to above USD 8 billion by 2020 Source: State of the Economy – Emerging from Crisis 2008, Beacon House National University publication Pakistan Economic Survey 2009
Electricity shortage of more than 4500 MW and frequent power cuts translate to:
Impact/Year
THAR COAL – SOLUTION
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Source : Thar Coal Energy Board, Government of Sindh
Bridging power generation gap via Thar
With increasing mine size the power tariff will be lowered as coal price will be lower
7 8 9
13
18
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
Domestic Gas Thar Coal Imported Coal LNG RFO HSD
Usc
/Kw
h
Levelized Tariff
GLOBAL LIGNITE COAL COMPARISON
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Country % age of Electricity
Generated from Coal
Lignite Reserves Billion tonnes
Energy Use (Kg of Oil equivalent per capita)
2009-2013
Access to electricity (% of population)
Ease of Doing
Business Index 1-highest
South Africa 94 30.15* 2795 75.8 41
Poland 93 1.37 2505 NA 45
China 81 18.6 2029 99.7 96
Australia 69 37.2 5892 NA 11
India 68 4.5 614 75 134
Czech Republic 62 0.98 4073 NA 75
USA 49 30.16 6793 NA 4
Germany 49 40.6 3754 NA 21
World Average 41 195.38 1892
Pakistan 0.1 186.2** 482 67.3 110
* Sub bituminous & Anthracite reserves only ** Thar Coal Resources are 175 billion tonnes Proven Reserve in 9 explored Blocks alone is 20 billion tonnes
Source : Thar Coal Energy Board, Government of Sindh
GLOBAL LIGNITE COAL QUALITIES
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Country Moisture % Ash % Volatile Matter % Sulphur %
Australia 65.5 0.6 17.6 0.1
Bosnia 51 2.0 30.3 0.05
Germany 55 10 19.2 0.2
Greece 52 15.1 18.8 0.2
India 48 6.1 25.6 0.6
Kosovo 51 15 20.8 <1.0
Pakistan (Thar) 46 7.0 28.0 0.7 - 1.1
Poland 52.8 9.8 20.0 0.6
Serbia 45.5 17.0 22.5 0.49
Thailand 30-35 10-28 32 0.8-1.5
Turkey 50 16 22.8 1.7
Source : Thar Coal Energy Board, Government of Sindh
COMPARISON OF THAR LIGNITE
WITH OTHER COUNTRIES
36
Deposit Stripping Ratio
(m³ : t) Heating Value (MJ/kg)
Thar 6.6 : 1 11.6 (5000 Btu/lb)
Kosovo 1 : 1 7.8 (3350 Btu/lb)
Rhenish Area, Germany 4.9 : 1 8.9 (3830 Btu/lb)
Hambach, Germany 6.3 : 1 10.5 (4510 Btu/lb)
Hungary 9 : 1 7.1 (3050 Btu/lb)
Greece 10:1 5.02 (2159 Btu/lb)
Source : Thar Coal Energy Board, Government of Sindh