SF Ranked Hottest Market in the Nation

Even though we feel the market is cooling down a bit, San Francisco still managed to rank as the hottest market in the nation according to Realtor.com.

The organization came to this conclusion by taking into account the number of days that homes spend on the market (a measure of supply) and the number of views that listings on their website get (a measure of demand).

The result is a list of 20 of the nation’s hottest real estate markets, where inventory moves 23 to 43 days more quickly than the national average, and listings get 1.4 to 3.7 more views than the national average.

SF moved up from #4 in August, to #1 in September. SF in this study includes Oakland and Hayward.

The Third Quarter’s Mixed SignalsThe question is always the same, “Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?” Historically REALTORS have answered by saying, “It depends.” In recent years, San Francisco has been almost exclusively a seller’s market, and in some neighborhoods and at some price points it still is. However, for the first time in a long while, we are able to reply to the question with that time-honored, if somewhat unsatisfying reply, “It depends.”

As the charts, graphs, and figures found in this report suggest, home values are both up and down, depending upon property type, price point and neighborhood.

In general, the signals are mixed, but nothing too terribly dramatic is taking place either way. Some would say the market is flat, but that description might not apply in all categories, and in all neighborhoods. Overall, the market seems to be in better balance than it has been in recent years. Single family homes under $2 million dollars continue to sell well. Condos, after reaching a record breaking high for median price in June, have come down in value a bit over the past three months. Nevertheless, the median price for condos remains just above the $1,000,000 mark.

Office: (415) 921-6000gdemartini@hill-co.com

Garey De Martini (CAL BRE #)Hill & Co.

Each data point is one month of activity. Data is from October 10, 2016.All data from the San Francisco MLS. InfoSparks © 2016 ShowingTime.

Median Sales Price - By Property Type

San Francisco County1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016

$0.6M

$0.8M

$1.0M

$1.2M

$1.4M

$1.6MSingle Family Condo & Loft

SaN FRaNcISco MaRkeT RecapTHIRd QuaRTeR 2015 RepoRT

Annie WilliamsTop 1% San Francisco Realtors415.819.2663awilliams@hill-co.comwww.AnniewilliamsHomes.comBRE License #01393923

First Tuesday Journal is an online real estate news source, and they recently published an extensive report on the state of the real estate market in San Francisco. Here are some excerpts:

“If you’re looking for indications of where California’s housing market will be in a couple years, take a look at San Francisco County. Home sales volume is nearly level with the pre-Millennium Boom years and the renter turnover rate is fully recovered. Jobs are also fully recovered, due to the presence of the high-paying tech industry in San Francisco.”

“All the same, home sales volume remains stuck in its bumpy plateau — fl at. It’s likely to pick up consistently in 2017 due to increased demand, fueled by San Francisco’s enviable jobs recovery.”

“San Francisco home prices are characterized by rapid starts and stops — particularly in the mid- and high-tiers. San Francisco’s low supply situation is partly to blame, creating a volatile home sales market.”

“San Francisco’s jobs market has well surpassed the point for recovery. Homeowners and renters require income (generally from employment) to make mortgage or rent payments. As a result, San Francisco’s housing market has recovered more swiftly than the rest of the state due directly to its quick healing and expansion in the jobs market.”

“Jobs have met and exceeded residents’ need for employment, even including San Francisco’s population increase of roughly 70,000 working-age individuals since the start of the 2008 Great Recession. By a statewide comparison, California just caught up to pre-recession levels in mid-2014, and is not likely to meet the intervening population increase until 2019.”

“Per capita income in San Francisco is nearly double that of California’s. Further, San Francisco’s per capita income has far exceeded its pre-recession peak. However, San Francisco residents spend on average 41% of their income on housing expenses.”

The Market according to First Tuesday Journal

Third Quarter Home Sales By Neighborhood*

*Single Family Homes and Condos Combined per the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®. Does Not Include Off Market Sales. These fi gures present a snapshot of the market to give you a sense of what is taking place. A single home’s value may be higher or lower than what is presented here, and the appreciation or depreciation you see may not apply. For example, median sale price means half the homes in that neighborhood sold under that amount, and half sold over. There can be dramatic differences between the high value and the low value, and the median fi gure does not show that.

When you look at the fi gures for this snapshot, what jumps out at you is nothing jumps out at you. For the past several years we’ve seen some jaw dropping increases in home values year-over-year. This quarter, sale prices are generally up each month, but not dramatically so in comparison to what we’ve seen previously.

The number of days that condos are on the market seems to be increasing, but beyond that the fi gures are fairly comparable one year to the next, and in some cases exactly even.

Districts 5, 7 and 8 include some of the City’s pricier neighborhoods - Noe Valley, Pacifi c Heights, Nob Hill, Russian Hill and the like. We include this chart to give residents in these districts a truer representation of their property values and to provide them with a better picture of the activity that has taken place in their neighborhoods over the past three months.

The prices you see in these neighborhoods are dramatically higher than the prices you see in the City overall, but the trends are typically very similar.

Third Quarter Snapshot: all of San Francisco

Third Quarter Snapshot: districts 5, 7 and 8

The chart at left suggests that inventory may be slowly improving. We thought we noticed more properties coming on the market in September, and this graph seems to confi rm that notion. The number of single family homes available on the market has peaked in September yearly since 2013 - roughly in the high 400s every year. However, in 2016 we saw a second signifi cant spike in listings in April, and so that would indicate more properties have been on the market this year in comparison to the previous three. The number of condos for sale is clearly trending upwards. After October, inventory will likely start dropping through the end of the year. It will be interesting to see how much it falls off, and how quickly it returns in 2017. We suspect inventory will in fact continue to grow next year, but ever so slowly.

Inventory May Be Slowly ImprovingOffice: (415) 921-6000gdemartini@hill-co.com

Garey De Martini (CAL BRE #)Hill & Co.

Each data point is one month of activity. Data is from October 11, 2016.All data from the San Francisco MLS. InfoSparks © 2016 ShowingTime.

Inventory of Active Listings - By Property Type

San Francisco County1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016

200

300

400

500

600

700Single Family Condo & Loft

Listings From around the World

Amphoe Ko Samui, Thailand: 6BD/6BA Offered at $3,500,000

ASIA, AUSTRALIA, AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC

Europe

Caribbean

Bologna, Italy: 8BD/4BA Offered at $3,903,201

Nassau/New Providence, Bahamas: 3BD/3BAOffered at $1,580,000

Toorak, Victoria, Australia: 3BD/3BA Offered at $3,980,324

Teguise, Spain: 6BD/3BA Offered at $1,001,450

St. John, Virgin Islands, U.S.: 3BD/2BA Offered at $1,495,000

Coromandel, New Zealand: 5BD/4BA Offered at $2,754,303

Verbier, Switzerland: 5BD/5BA Offered at $7,651,812

Oyster Pond, Sint Maarten: 4BD/4BA Offered at $3,500,000

To see more homes like this, visit www.hill-co.com and click on our “International” tab.