Annex 1. The urbanisation of Europe and the World...1 Annex 1. The urbanisation of Europe and the...

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1 Annex 1. The urbanisation of Europe and the World More than half of the world population lives in urban areas although not all regions of the world have reached this level of urbanisation; Asia is expected to reach 50% urban population by 2020 and Africa in 2035. World population is expected to increase by 2.3 billion by 2050, in the same period urban areas will gain 2.6 billion and rural areas will lose 300 million people. Most of the population growth expected in urban areas will be concentrated in the cities and towns of the less developed regions. Asia, in particular, is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.4 billion, Africa by 0.9 billion, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 0.2 billion. In the developed world the annual growth rates of urban agglomerations is slowing down compared to the previous 40 years. 1 Europe already became predominantly urban in the beginning of the 1950s. In the last century Europe transformed itself from a largely rural to a predominantly urban continent. Today, approximately 359 million people - 72 % of the total EU population - live in cities, towns and suburbs. Although the speed of transformation has slowed down, the share of the urban population continues to grow. However, Europe is characterised by a more polycentric and less concentrated urban structure compared to, for instance, the USA or China. There are 26 cities of more than 1 million inhabitants and additional 373 cities of more than 100 000 inhabitants in the European Union, representing around 165 million people. Only 7 % of the EU population live in cities of over 5 million inhabitants compared to 25 % in the USA. 2. The potential and threats to a sustainable urban development The concentration of consumers, workers and businesses in a place or area, together with the formal and informal institutions that make an agglomeration ‘thick’ and cohesive, has the potential to produce externalities and increasing returns to scale. Sixty-seven per cent of Europe’s GDP is generated in metropolitan regions, 2 while their population only represents fifty-nine per cent of the total European population. A comparison of European cities’ economic performance also indicates that the major cities are doing better than the rest. 3 Capitals and larger metropolitan regions have also performed better during the economic crisis than smaller metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions 4 . However, there is marked difference in performance between capital and non-capital cities. It is hard to distinguish the effects of agglomeration alone from the positive externalities of being a capital city and centre of both public and private administrations. There is also an even bigger difference between Western and Eastern non-capital cities that cannot be explained by size alone. 1 ‘World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision’, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division, New York 2012 2 Metropolitan regions are defined as ‘larger urban zones’ with more than 250 000 inhabitants (Source: DG REGIO). 3 ‘State of European Cities Report’, European Commission 2010; 4 ‘8th Progress Report on Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion’, European Commission 2013

Transcript of Annex 1. The urbanisation of Europe and the World...1 Annex 1. The urbanisation of Europe and the...

Page 1: Annex 1. The urbanisation of Europe and the World...1 Annex 1. The urbanisation of Europe and the World More than half of the world population lives in urban areas although not all

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Annex

1. The urbanisation of Europe and the World More than half of the world population lives in urban areas although not all regions of the world

have reached this level of urbanisation; Asia is expected to reach 50% urban population by 2020 and

Africa in 2035. World population is expected to increase by 2.3 billion by 2050, in the same period

urban areas will gain 2.6 billion and rural areas will lose 300 million people. Most of the population

growth expected in urban areas will be concentrated in the cities and towns of the less developed

regions. Asia, in particular, is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.4 billion, Africa by

0.9 billion, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 0.2 billion. In the developed world the annual

growth rates of urban agglomerations is slowing down compared to the previous 40 years. 1

Europe already became predominantly urban in the beginning of the 1950s. In the last century

Europe transformed itself from a largely rural to a predominantly urban continent. Today,

approximately 359 million people - 72 % of the total EU population - live in cities, towns and suburbs.

Although the speed of transformation has slowed down, the share of the urban population continues

to grow. However, Europe is characterised by a more polycentric and less concentrated urban

structure compared to, for instance, the USA or China. There are 26 cities of more than 1 million

inhabitants and additional 373 cities of more than 100 000 inhabitants in the European Union,

representing around 165 million people. Only 7 % of the EU population live in cities of over 5 million

inhabitants compared to 25 % in the USA.

2. The potential and threats to a sustainable urban development The concentration of consumers, workers and businesses in a place or area, together with the formal

and informal institutions that make an agglomeration ‘thick’ and cohesive, has the potential to

produce externalities and increasing returns to scale. Sixty-seven per cent of Europe’s GDP is

generated in metropolitan regions,2 while their population only represents fifty-nine per cent of the

total European population. A comparison of European cities’ economic performance also indicates

that the major cities are doing better than the rest.3 Capitals and larger metropolitan regions have

also performed better during the economic crisis than smaller metropolitan and non-metropolitan

regions4. However, there is marked difference in performance between capital and non-capital cities.

It is hard to distinguish the effects of agglomeration alone from the positive externalities of being a

capital city and centre of both public and private administrations. There is also an even bigger

difference between Western and Eastern non-capital cities that cannot be explained by size alone.

1 ‘World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision’, United Nations Department of Economic and Social

Affairs/Population Division, New York 2012 2 Metropolitan regions are defined as ‘larger urban zones’ with more than 250 000 inhabitants (Source: DG REGIO).

3 ‘State of European Cities Report’, European Commission 2010;

4 ‘8th Progress Report on Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion’, European Commission 2013

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A concentration of activity is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for high growth. Small and

medium sized cities also possess a significant potential for development which Europe needs to fully

unlock to achieve its strategic objectives.

Although cities are generators of growth, the highest unemployment rates are found in cities.

Globalisation has led to a loss of jobs — especially in the manufacturing sector. As an effect of the

crisis the share of the population at risk of poverty and in low work intensity households has

increased. Many cities face a significant loss of inclusive power and cohesion and an increase in

exclusion, segregation and polarisation. Cities contribute to the reduction of energy consumption

and CO2 emissions as the density of urban areas allows for more energy-efficient forms of housing,

transport and service provision - people living in an urban area use less energy and less land for their

transport and housing compared to people living in other areas, and service provision is also more

efficient in cities. But uncontrolled urban sprawl is countering the positive impacts on resource

efficiency of compact urban settlements.

The starting points, potential and development trajectories of cities across Europe are very different.

In addition, the policy levers, such as policy competences and taxation powers also show significant

variation across Europe and do not always mirror cities' responsibilities for implementation of

policies, directives and regulation set at higher government levels. There are many examples of

public budget cuts at national level with devolved responsibilities for cities without additional

budget. The economic crisis has amplified such tendencies and led to diminished opportunities for

longer-term investments. Shrinking and ageing populations have put public services under strain to

operate oversized infrastructure with reduced tax bases. Coupled with the negative effects on local

economies, many cities find themselves in vicious circles, which seriously undermine their

capabilities to exploit their full potential and contribute to EU objectives.

Figure 1: At-risk-of-poverty rate by degree of urbanisation, 2012

Source: 8th

Progress Report on Economic, Social and Territorial Cohesion, European Commission 2013

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CitiesTowns and suburbs, Rural areas

* IE, 2011

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Table 1: Cities of Tomorrow main urban challenges5

Smart Growth challenges

1. Support a transition towards a knowledge society: e.g. smart cities as technology-enhanced urban development (FI); building on social, organisational and technical innovation and on community competencies; new educational pathways; develop a favourable entrepreneurial environment; develop local & social economy;

2. Develop city resilience to economic pressure and financial crises e.g. ensure social services, maintain a viable manufacturing sector, maintain social capital.

Green Growth challenges

3. Ensure sustained investment for public transport and shift to a more sustainable urban mobility; Energy-efficient building and energetic urban renewal (DE); Achieve greater energy and resource efficiency and manage the transition towards a carbon-neutral city;

4. Sustainable management of natural resources (e.g. water, waste, air, soil and land), safeguard against physical and environmental degradation, urban sprawl, etc.;

5. Accelerate transition towards a sustainable city given the inherent inertia of infrastructure provision (e.g. housing, transport, water and energy systems).

Inclusive Growth challenges

6. Counter social/spatial segregation/polarisation; acting for urban deprived areas (FR); reduce child poverty in urban areas (BE); ensure social & functional mix and cohesion; allow a cultural mix; affordable housing for all (NL); address urban sprawl (e.g. mitigation of gentrification effects, fair distribution of income and welfare);

7. Develop capacities for social and economic integration of newcomers, especially migrants and the socially disadvantaged; combat youth unemployment (under discussion during IE Presidency);

8. Manage and adapt to demographic changes due to ageing, age imbalances, intra-EU mobility6 (LT), trans-national mobility, migration strategies (e.g. attract qualified migrants) as a solution to labour shortage.

Transversal Challenges / an integrated approach to urban development

9. Foster cities' attractiveness e.g. develop public open spaces; education, culture, sports, creativity

and cultural/industrial heritage; safety and security;

10. Ensure territorial coherence and cohesion e.g. urban/peri-urban cooperation, cooperation between the metropolis and its hinterland and manage urban/rural linkage.

5 As part of the Cities of Tomorrow reflection process a synthetic list of 10 key urban challenges was agreed by the urban

experts and used as a basis for the discussions. These are listed above under four headings: smart growth; green growth; inclusive growth and transversal challenges. The list also includes major urban challenges put forward by Member States in the context of the intergovernmental cooperation on urban development (as discussed in the meeting of Directors-General responsible for Urban Development organised by the Lithuanian Presidency).

6 LT suggest using the term intra-EU migration whereas at European level migration refers to third country flows.

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3. EU urban policy Economic, social and territorial cohesion all have a strong urban dimension. As the vast majority of

Europeans live in or depend on cities, their developments cannot be isolated from a wider European

policy framework and the EU has had a growing impact on the development of cities over recent

decades, notably through the Cohesion Policy.

In terms of aims, objectives, and values, there is an explicit agreement on the character of the

European city of the future and the principles on which an ideal European city should be based.

These principles can be found in the objectives of the Treaty, in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of

the European Union, in the European Social Model. There is also a consensus among the ministers

responsible for urban development on more specific city objectives and values - as reflected in the

Leipzig Charter – as well as how these objectives should be attained and the instrumental role cities

can play in implementing Europe 2020 as expressed in the Toledo Declaration. The same goes for the

principles of urban development in the European territory as expressed in the Territorial Agenda of

the European Union 2020 (TA2020). Cohesion policy, through the URBAN Community Initiatives7 and

the subsequent mainstreaming of integrated sustainable development, has fed the

intergovernmental process with practical experience. Together they form what is known as the

‘Acquis Urbain’.

The European Cities of Tomorrow are places of advanced social progress; they are platforms for

democracy, cultural dialogue and diversity; they are places of green, ecological or environmental

regeneration; and they are places of attraction and engines of economic growth.

The future European urban territorial development should reflect a sustainable development of Europe

based on balanced economic growth and balanced territorial organisation with a polycentric urban

structure; it should contain strong regional centres that provide good accessibility to services of general

economic interest; it should be characterised by a compact settlement structure with limited urban sprawl;

and it should enjoy a high level of protection and quality of environment around cities. [Cities of Tomorrow,

European Union 2011]

However, if there is an agreement of the principles that should guide urban development in Europe,

there is a lack of explicit objectives, targets and instruments. There is no explicit urban dimension in

the Europe 2020 strategy and its targets.

The addition of Urban Policy in the name of the Directorate General for Regional and Urban Policy

came in 2012 and was partly a response to the strengthening of multilevel governance in the Lisbon

Treaty, but above all a recognition of the importance of the local level in general and cities in

particular as key actors for European development. One of the objectives of DG Regional and Urban

Policy is to ensure that cities play their full part in the economic, social and territorial development of

the EU. In the 2014-2020 programming period a minimum 5% of national ERDF allocations have been

earmarked for integrated sustainable development to ensure that it is a priority in all Member States.

7 URBAN I (1994–99) and URBAN II (2000–2006) were two Community Initiatives of the European Regional

Development Fund (ERDF) focused on the sustainable integrated development of deprived urban districts.

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City networking and exchange will continue to be promoted by the next generation URBACT

programme. In addition to these resources dedicated to integrated sustainable urban development,

an estimated 50% of the ERDF, around 80-90 billion Euro, will be invested in urban areas through the

mainstream operational programmes.

An increasing number of EU policies explicitly target urban areas; Education and Culture, Transport,

Energy, Information Society, Environment, Climate Change, etc. support initiatives such as European

Capital of Culture, Smart Cities and Communities European Innovation Partnership, Green Capital

Award, Covenant of Mayors. Many other EU initiatives or directives implicitly target urban areas, e.g.,

noise and air quality directives, migration policies, etc., which although not urban per see de facto

chiefly concern urban areas.

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Table 2: European Commission initiatives with an urban dimension

DG/ Agency Policy/ Regulation Targeting Cities/ local Local projects Studies/ research Tools

Climate Action Renewable Energy Directive

Climate and Energy package

Competition State aid control in SGEI / public services

Communication, Networks, Content & Technology

Digital Agenda for Europe

Smart Cities and Communities EIP

Digital technologies in providing public services

Green Digital Charter

FP7/CIP projects - pilot sites across Europe

ICT for Energy Efficiency – Local and Regional Initiatives (SMART 2009/0073)

Wiki developed under the study SMART 2009/0073

Green Digital Charter tool kit (NiCE project)

Education and Culture Cultural and creative industries for smart specialisation

Inter-cultural dialogue

European Capitals of Culture

European Heritage Label

European Environment Agency

TERM 2013 report

SOER

Air Implementation Pilot

CORINE Land Cover project

Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Social exclusion

Urban poverty and social exclusion

ESF investments

Energy Energy Efficiency Directive

Smart Cities and Communities EIP

Covenant of Mayors

Connecting Europe Facility

ELENA Facility

Environment Air and water quality

Noise reduction

Waste treatment

Biodiversity

7th

EU EAP priority objective 8

Green infrastructures

Thematic Strategy on the Urban Environment

LIFE programme 2014-2020

Horizon2020 Societal Challenges

European Green Capitals Award

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Eurostat

Urban Audit: statistics on European cities

Study on comparable Labour Market Areas

Typologies of Metropolitan areas (NUTS-3) and Degree of Urbanisation (LAU-2)

Classifications of Core cities, Larger urban zones (LUZ), Sub-city districts (SCD) and Kernels

Home Affairs Immigration

Organised crime and human trafficking

Integration of non-EU migrants

Crime prevention and reduction

Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund 2014-2020

European Web Site on Integration

Joint Research Centre

Sustainable Urban Living

Strategic Activity

Modelling framework for integrated assessment

Indicators and trends for EU urban areas; Outlook of EU cities

Scientific and technical support to EU regional and urban development policies; H2020

Justice Anti-discrimination Ethnic diversity of urban areas

Mobility and Transport Transport White Paper

TEN-T

Urban Mobility Package

Smart Cities and Communities EIP

Connecting Europe Facility

CIVITAS 2020

Sustainable urban mobility plans

ELTIS portal on urban mobility

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Regional and Urban policy

Integrated approach to sustainable urban development

Green Paper on Territorial Cohesion

ITI, CLLD, ≥5% of national ERDF allocations integrated sustainable urban development (ERDF Art.7)

ERDF investment priorities specifically targeting urban areas

Innovative Actions in the field of integrated sustainable urban development

URBACT city networking programme

50-60% of ERDF invested in urban areas

Cities of Tomorrow,

Perception survey on the quality of life in cities

ESPON research

Reference Framework for Sustainable Cities (RFSC)

Research and Innovation

Innovation Union

Horizon 2020

Horizon 2020 research areas

Health and Consumers Health programme

European Consumer Agenda

Health inequalities in urban areas

Empowering consumers

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Table 3: The urban dimension of Europe 2020

Policy objectives Territorial focus Promoting exchange of

knowledge and

experience

Awarding good practices

SMART GROWTH

Smart Specialisation Strategies

Innovative application of integration of

energy, transport and ICT technologies

Smart Cities and

Communities EIP

Investing in culture European Capitals of

Culture

European heritage label

Accessibility of retail services

SUSTAINABLE GROWTH

7th Environmental Action Programme

Sustainable urban planning & design

Tackling air pollution Urban areas exceeding EU

air quality standards

Green infrastructure solutions

European Cities European Green Capitals

Award

Climate change mitigation measures (clean

urban transport, energy efficiency, limiting

urban sprawl)

Metropolises

SMCs for skills and

capacity building

Climate change adaptation measures (sea

level rise, high temperatures, extreme

weather events)

Coastal cities,

Large cities in South,

Cities along main

rivers

Energy efficiency in urban transport, public

infrastructure, district heating, buildings

Cities in EU13 Covenant of Mayors

ELENA facility

Sustainable urban mobility plans Small & medium size

cities (SMCs)

CIVITAS award

Deliver on the EU climate objectives

through the use of Information and

Communication Technologies (ICT)

Cities Green Digital Charter

INCLUSIVE GROWTH

Tackling spatial segregation in terms of

access to quality public services

Connections between

centre and suburbs

Eliminating substandard housing

Tackling health inequalities HU, SK, RO, BG, PL, CZ, LV

Active inclusion

Partnerships with employers

Migrants, marginalised

communities

Decreasing early school leaving

Services for childcare and dependants

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4. Maps and tables Map 1: Population density in Europe, 2001

Note: Colours and peak heights represent population density by 1 km2 raster cells. Sources: Eurostat, JRC, EFGS, REGIO-GIS.

Table 4: Population share by degree of urbanisation in %, 1961-2011

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

EU-15 Cities 42.4 43.6 43.4 42.9 42.2 42.3

Towns and suburbs 27.8 29.5 31.0 31.8 32.5 32.6

Rural areas 29.8 26.9 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

EU-13 Cities 25.4 29.0 32.6 34.2 33.9 33.8

Towns and suburbs 19.7 21.4 23.1 24.5 25.1 25.7

Rural areas 55.0 49.6 44.3 41.4 41.0 40.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

EU-28 Cities 38.6 40.3 40.9 40.9 40.4 40.5

Towns and suburbs 26.0 27.7 29.2 30.1 30.8 31.2

Rural areas 35.5 32.0 29.9 29.0 28.8 28.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note: Only partial data for Portugal and Slovenia

Source: Time series of LAU2 population data, NSI, DG REGIO / Spatial Foresight

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Table 5: Population by degree of urbanisation in the EU-28, 2011

* Cities with an urban centre of 50 000 inhabitants or more

** Towns and suburbs have the majority of their population in an urban cluster of 5 000 inhabitants or more and do not

have an urban centre of at least 50 000 inhabitants

Source: European Commission (JRC, EFGS, DG REGIO).

Degree of urbanisation Population Number of cities*

absolute in %

Rural areas 154 125 040 28.3

Towns and suburbs** 155,900,491 31.2

Cities* 203,078,408 40.6 811

Cities* by urban centre size

50 000 – 100 000 38,067,398 7.6 412

100 000 – 250 000 47,494,019 9.5 263

250 000 – 500 000 25,336,401 5.1 71

500 000 – 1 000 000 29,104,398 5.8 39

> 1 000 000 63,076,191 12.6 26

Total EU-28 500,432,969 100

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Map 2 Population size and density of major cities in Europe (2006)

Note: Population and density calculated for an area corresponding to a radius of 15 Km around each city centre.

Elaboration: JRC/REGIO