Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 AUTHOR Michael Lee, BE, MITE Andrew OBrien &...

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2AUTHORAUTHOR• Michael Lee, BE, MITEMichael Lee, BE, MITE

Andrew O’Brien & Associates Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Andrew O’Brien & Associates Pty Ltd, Melbourne, AustraliaAustralia

• Emails:Emails:1. [email protected] (office)1. [email protected] (office)2. [email protected] (private)2. [email protected] (private)

• Telephone: 61 4 1329 5325Telephone: 61 4 1329 5325

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2ABSTRACTABSTRACT• Picture of current modelling practicesPicture of current modelling practices

• Differences between the two pakagesDifferences between the two pakages

• Comparison of inputs and outputsComparison of inputs and outputs

• Projects where EMME/2 and PARAMICS are usedProjects where EMME/2 and PARAMICS are used

• Sample outputsSample outputs

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2INTRODUCTION 1INTRODUCTION 1• Unprecedented market penetrationUnprecedented market penetration

• Has NOT displaced 4-step modellingHas NOT displaced 4-step modelling

• Niche role - between macro/meso models and Niche role - between macro/meso models and analytical (intersection level) modelsanalytical (intersection level) models

• Picture = 1,000 wordsPicture = 1,000 words

• Movie = 1,000 picturesMovie = 1,000 pictures

• Paramics output = Series of MoviesParamics output = Series of Movies

• Glimpse of virtual realityGlimpse of virtual reality

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2INTRO 2 - HAS IT DELIVERED? INTRO 2 - HAS IT DELIVERED?

Hundreds of Thousands $$$ Hundreds of Thousands $$$ AnnuallyAnnually

• Town Centre Strategy StudiesTown Centre Strategy Studies

• OperationsOperations

– Interaction of controls along a route Interaction of controls along a route (Intersection Signals, Pedestrian Signals, (Intersection Signals, Pedestrian Signals, Roundabout, Signal Coordination)Roundabout, Signal Coordination)

– Loop activated controlsLoop activated controls

– Lane restrictions for different classes, e.g. Lane restrictions for different classes, e.g. HOV, bus, tram, HOV, bus, tram,

• Freeway Management StudiesFreeway Management Studies

– Ramp Metering, Weaving AnalysesRamp Metering, Weaving Analyses

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PROJECTS - 1PROJECTS - 1• Between 1995 and 98, mainly EMME/2 (or TRIPS) Between 1995 and 98, mainly EMME/2 (or TRIPS)

+ SIDRA (Intersection Analysis Package)+ SIDRA (Intersection Analysis Package)

• Since 1999, clients are increasingly asking for Since 1999, clients are increasingly asking for EMME/2 (or TRIPS) + PARAMICSEMME/2 (or TRIPS) + PARAMICS

• See Table 1 of paper for detailsSee Table 1 of paper for details

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PROJECTS - 2 Recent Projects PROJECTS - 2 Recent Projects

Involving Microsimulation & Involving Microsimulation & EMME/2 (or TRIPS)EMME/2 (or TRIPS)

• Melbourne CBD (Stage 1), approx A$150k (2003)Melbourne CBD (Stage 1), approx A$150k (2003)

• Ringwood Town Centre, A$200k (2001)Ringwood Town Centre, A$200k (2001)

• Frankston Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04)Frankston Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04)

• Dandenong Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04)Dandenong Town Centre, A$300k (2003/04)

• Sydney CBD, A$500k - A$700k (2001-2002)Sydney CBD, A$500k - A$700k (2001-2002)

• Sydney Cross-City Tunnel (Around 1999-2000)Sydney Cross-City Tunnel (Around 1999-2000)

• Lane Cove Toll Road (Around 1999-2000)Lane Cove Toll Road (Around 1999-2000)

• Gungahlin Drive (freeway) Extension, near Gungahlin Drive (freeway) Extension, near CanberraCanberra

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2DIFFERENCES 1DIFFERENCES 1• PARAMICS - One Step (Traffic Assignment) onlyPARAMICS - One Step (Traffic Assignment) only

• EMME/2 - Up to Four StepsEMME/2 - Up to Four Steps

• PARAMICS Assignment - all or nothing, PARAMICS Assignment - all or nothing, equilibrium (dynamic feedback), stochastic or a equilibrium (dynamic feedback), stochastic or a combination of stochastic and equilibriumcombination of stochastic and equilibrium

• Weak Equilibrium Assignment in PARAMICSWeak Equilibrium Assignment in PARAMICS

• Problem with unrealistic cost fluctuationsProblem with unrealistic cost fluctuations

• Can cause network blockagesCan cause network blockages

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2DIFFERENCES 2 Traffic AssignmentDIFFERENCES 2 Traffic Assignment• EMME/2EMME/2

- Assignment is iterative with a convergence or - Assignment is iterative with a convergence or maximum number of iteration criteriamaximum number of iteration criteria- Costs are updated at the end of each iteration- Costs are updated at the end of each iteration

• PARAMICSPARAMICS- One iteration, but results are dynamic over the - One iteration, but results are dynamic over the simulation period simulation period- For equilibrium assignment, costs are updated - For equilibrium assignment, costs are updated at pre-set intervals. Routes with similar costs at pre-set intervals. Routes with similar costs will alternately congest and free up, which could will alternately congest and free up, which could result in “modeling related” operational result in “modeling related” operational problems. Use of stochastic assignment is problems. Use of stochastic assignment is preferred.preferred.

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2DIFFERENCES 3 A Case of “Friction”DIFFERENCES 3 A Case of “Friction”

Factors Affecting Traffic Factors Affecting Traffic AssignmentAssignment

• PARAMICS - Vehicle following, gap acceptance PARAMICS - Vehicle following, gap acceptance and lane changing criteria. The parameters and and lane changing criteria. The parameters and controls available to the modeller are described controls available to the modeller are described in the following slides.in the following slides.

• EMME/2 - Lane capacity (typically 1,900 but can EMME/2 - Lane capacity (typically 1,900 but can vary up to 2,500), Shape of volume delay curve vary up to 2,500), Shape of volume delay curve (flat followed by a sharp drop for freeways, (flat followed by a sharp drop for freeways, gently dropping for roads with stops and starts), gently dropping for roads with stops and starts), Number of lanes on the link. Number of lanes on the link.

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 1a GlobalPARAMICS Variables 1a Global• Target Headway Target Headway

- Not equal to the mean measured headway in - Not equal to the mean measured headway in secondsseconds- Can be set globally or on a link-by-link basis- Can be set globally or on a link-by-link basis- Smaller headway settings will result in - Smaller headway settings will result in saturation capacity higher than 1,900 vehicles saturation capacity higher than 1,900 vehicles per laneper lane- Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0)- Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0)

• Target Reaction TimeTarget Reaction Time- Of each driver in seconds- Of each driver in seconds- Can be set globally only - Can be set globally only - Associated with the lag in time between a - Associated with the lag in time between a change of speed of the preceding vehicle and change of speed of the preceding vehicle and the following vehicle’s reaction to the changethe following vehicle’s reaction to the change- Smaller settings increase saturation capacity- Smaller settings increase saturation capacity- Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0)- Default of 1.0 (range btwn 0.2 and 2.0)

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 1bPARAMICS Variables 1b

Typical Headway and Reaction Typical Headway and Reaction Time FiguresTime Figures

• 1.0, 1.0 Paramics default (Works well for 1.0, 1.0 Paramics default (Works well for Australian conditions - arterial roads and Australian conditions - arterial roads and freeways)freeways)

• 0.6, 0.4 Used by a consultant for modelling Los 0.6, 0.4 Used by a consultant for modelling Los Angeles’ freeways (Not suitable for Australian Angeles’ freeways (Not suitable for Australian freeways)freeways)

• 0.3, 0.2 Used by a consultant for modelling 0.3, 0.2 Used by a consultant for modelling downtown traffic in Manhattandowntown traffic in Manhattan

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 2 Global PARAMICS Variables 2 Global

ImpactsImpacts• Vehicle characteristics.Vehicle characteristics.

A vehicle population can comprise several A vehicle population can comprise several types of cars, trucks, buses and trams. For types of cars, trucks, buses and trams. For each type of vehicle, physical attributes such each type of vehicle, physical attributes such as dimensions, weight, acceleration rate, as dimensions, weight, acceleration rate, deceleration rate and top speed can be deceleration rate and top speed can be specified.specified.

• Familiarity of drivers.Familiarity of drivers.Specified as a proportion of the vehicle Specified as a proportion of the vehicle population. Affects routing for stochastic population. Affects routing for stochastic assignments.assignments.

• Distribution of aggression (all drivers) and Distribution of aggression (all drivers) and awareness (“familiar” drivers) in the vehicle awareness (“familiar” drivers) in the vehicle population.population.

• Seed value. Varying the seed would vary Seed value. Varying the seed would vary slightly the rate of traffic generation at a given slightly the rate of traffic generation at a given point in time - mimicking the daily variances. point in time - mimicking the daily variances.

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 3 LinksPARAMICS Variables 3 Links• Nextlanes - overrides the default lane mapping Nextlanes - overrides the default lane mapping

at specific nodes. E.g. restricting entry into at specific nodes. E.g. restricting entry into downstream lanes 1 and 2 from upstream lanes downstream lanes 1 and 2 from upstream lanes 1,2 and 3 on the approach to a ramp instead of 1,2 and 3 on the approach to a ramp instead of lanes 1 and 2 only.lanes 1 and 2 only.

• ““Urban” or “Highway” links. With highway Urban” or “Highway” links. With highway links, vehicles overtake only on the fast (ie links, vehicles overtake only on the fast (ie centre) lane. With urban links, vehicles can centre) lane. With urban links, vehicles can overtake on the slow or fast lanes.overtake on the slow or fast lanes.

• Link speed limit, Link cost factor (affects Link speed limit, Link cost factor (affects routing), Link gradient (heavy vehicles are routing), Link gradient (heavy vehicles are affected more than light vehicles).affected more than light vehicles).

• Stay in Lane - restricts lane changes (solid line)Stay in Lane - restricts lane changes (solid line)

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 4 LinksPARAMICS Variables 4 Links• Vehicle class restrictions on specific lanes.Vehicle class restrictions on specific lanes.

• Location of control points (known as “stop-Location of control points (known as “stop-lines”) for exiting one lane and entering the lines”) for exiting one lane and entering the next.next.

• Signposting distance from Hazard - Hazards are Signposting distance from Hazard - Hazards are changes of conditions such as a turn, road changes of conditions such as a turn, road narrowing or an intersection ahead. Upon narrowing or an intersection ahead. Upon sighting a hazard, the driver will see whether a sighting a hazard, the driver will see whether a lane change is required. If so, the vehicle will lane change is required. If so, the vehicle will attempt to change lanes. If not, the vehicle will attempt to change lanes. If not, the vehicle will carry on until a gap is available.carry on until a gap is available.

• Signrange - Distance driver becomes aware of Signrange - Distance driver becomes aware of the hazard.the hazard.

• NOTE: Signposting and signrange are used NOTE: Signposting and signrange are used together.together.

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 5 - PARAMICS Variables 5 -

IntersectionsIntersections• Lane allocation at intersections. Extension of Lane allocation at intersections. Extension of

“nextlanes” function for mapping turning lanes.“nextlanes” function for mapping turning lanes.

• Lane choices - provides a “two-link” look-ahead, Lane choices - provides a “two-link” look-ahead, to minimise erroneous lane choices. Works well to minimise erroneous lane choices. Works well in theory!in theory!

• Reroute stuck vehicles - specifically for vehicles Reroute stuck vehicles - specifically for vehicles at the holding line of intersections that have at the holding line of intersections that have been trapped in the wrong lane.been trapped in the wrong lane.

• Shared lanes - allows vehicles to share lanes in Shared lanes - allows vehicles to share lanes in order to avoid lane blocking due to queuing in order to avoid lane blocking due to queuing in the incorrect lane.the incorrect lane.

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 6 IntersectionsPARAMICS Variables 6 Intersections• Make Stacking - brings the “holding position” Make Stacking - brings the “holding position”

forward into the intersection. Improves capacity forward into the intersection. Improves capacity of filter turns.of filter turns.

• Visibility distance for traffic approaching from a Visibility distance for traffic approaching from a minor road. If visibility is good, vehicles will minor road. If visibility is good, vehicles will slow down, but not necessarily stop.slow down, but not necessarily stop.

• Sufficient capacity for turns (particularly left-Sufficient capacity for turns (particularly left-turns in the US/Europe and right-turns in turns in the US/Europe and right-turns in Australia/UK)Australia/UK)

• Correct values in the matrix!!! Often the Correct values in the matrix!!! Often the problem with turn lanes overflowing is due to problem with turn lanes overflowing is due to incorrect values.incorrect values.

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tdPARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS & EMME/2PARAMICS Variables 7 SignalsPARAMICS Variables 7 Signals• Green, amber and red times of each movement.Green, amber and red times of each movement.

• Characteristics of green band for coordinated Characteristics of green band for coordinated signals - depends on the defined signal offsets signals - depends on the defined signal offsets and the green times of each signal for the and the green times of each signal for the coordinated direction.coordinated direction.

• Loop activated phases (can be triggered by Loop activated phases (can be triggered by occupancy or queue length criteria). E.g. tram occupancy or queue length criteria). E.g. tram activated phases, pedestrian activated phases, activated phases, pedestrian activated phases, level crossing phases, “minor street” level crossing phases, “minor street” intersections.intersections.

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tdPARAMICS PARAMICS PARAMICS InputsPARAMICS Inputs• Incremental trip matrix loading, with in-built Incremental trip matrix loading, with in-built

randomness set by the chosen seed.randomness set by the chosen seed.

• Demand profile can be flat (even) or variable Demand profile can be flat (even) or variable over time.over time.

PARAMICS OutputsPARAMICS Outputs• Lane by lane traffic movements.Lane by lane traffic movements.

• Location of traffic hotspots.Location of traffic hotspots.

• Visual representation of traffic.Visual representation of traffic.

• Travel time (link).Travel time (link).

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tdMELBOURNE CBDMELBOURNE CBD

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tdMELBOURNE CBDMELBOURNE CBDSCOPE 1SCOPE 1• Clients: Department of Infrastructure (think Clients: Department of Infrastructure (think

“state planning authority”), VicRoads (think “state planning authority”), VicRoads (think “state road agency).“state road agency).

• Being the CBD, one would think that Melbourne Being the CBD, one would think that Melbourne City Council would be leading proponent!! But City Council would be leading proponent!! But not really! not really!

• What are they looking for?What are they looking for?1. Optimisation of operations for all traffic 1. Optimisation of operations for all traffic classes (cars, trucks, trams, pedestrians) classes (cars, trucks, trams, pedestrians) Hmmm….something has to give! May God bless Hmmm….something has to give! May God bless all road users :)all road users :)

2. Microsimulation model that “draws from” 2. Microsimulation model that “draws from” strategic (4-step) model and ultimately “feeds strategic (4-step) model and ultimately “feeds back” to that model….we know that is NOT back” to that model….we know that is NOT possible in the literal sense.possible in the literal sense.

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SCOPE 2SCOPE 2 • What are they looking for?What are they looking for?

3. Impact of future land use changes and 3. Impact of future land use changes and infrastructure changes in the broader infrastructure changes in the broader Metropolitan area on movements at key “entry Metropolitan area on movements at key “entry streets” into the CBD - hence the need for streets” into the CBD - hence the need for EMME/2.EMME/2.

4. Impact of new parking stations within the 4. Impact of new parking stations within the CBD.CBD.

5. Impact of new Docklands apartments (next 5-5. Impact of new Docklands apartments (next 5-10 years) along the western periphery of the 10 years) along the western periphery of the CBD.CBD.

• 6. 2011 and beyond traffic projections. We think 6. 2011 and beyond traffic projections. We think that is B### S### for the CBD area as traffic that is B### S### for the CBD area as traffic during the peak hours is already at saturation. during the peak hours is already at saturation.

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SCOPE 3SCOPE 3 • What are they looking for?What are they looking for?

7. A model that matches reality….Ha! Ha! Ha!7. A model that matches reality….Ha! Ha! Ha!

There are some people out there who believe we There are some people out there who believe we have tools that can model the movement of have tools that can model the movement of individuals, right from the time they leave their individuals, right from the time they leave their door and the exact time they cross a particular door and the exact time they cross a particular junction!junction!

These questions/points are often raised by non-These questions/points are often raised by non-transport modelling individuals who have been transport modelling individuals who have been invited to one of our progress meetings. A invited to one of our progress meetings. A question for the sake of asking a question.question for the sake of asking a question.

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DATA 1DATA 1 • Vehicle Turning Movements at 5-minute Vehicle Turning Movements at 5-minute

intervals, collected manually. Normally, profiles intervals, collected manually. Normally, profiles at 15-minute intervals are sufficient, except at 15-minute intervals are sufficient, except when there are specific locations where peak when there are specific locations where peak arrival rates (say 5 to 10 minutes) can result in arrival rates (say 5 to 10 minutes) can result in stuff-ups of up to 1/2 hour.stuff-ups of up to 1/2 hour.

• Traffic data collected at over 30 junctions.Traffic data collected at over 30 junctions.Data includes turning volumes, signal data Data includes turning volumes, signal data (phase times, coordination off-sets, transit or (phase times, coordination off-sets, transit or movement related phase changes). Some data movement related phase changes). Some data were historical, others were collected either for were historical, others were collected either for the full modelling hour or as spot observations the full modelling hour or as spot observations and factored up accordingly.and factored up accordingly.

• AM peak hour, PM peak hour and a Lunchtime AM peak hour, PM peak hour and a Lunchtime peak hour.peak hour.

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DATA 2DATA 2 • Video of key intersections for verification. Also Video of key intersections for verification. Also

used as a “defence tool” when grilled at used as a “defence tool” when grilled at meetings.meetings.

• Inventory of off-street and on-street parking Inventory of off-street and on-street parking supply - provided by Council, and “spot-supply - provided by Council, and “spot-verified”.verified”.

• Spot assessment of peak arrivals and departures Spot assessment of peak arrivals and departures at larger/reasonably significant parking stations.at larger/reasonably significant parking stations.

• Spot lane utilisation information at a number of Spot lane utilisation information at a number of locations.locations.

• Tube counts.Tube counts.

• Signal phasing plans.Signal phasing plans.

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STRAGEGIC MODELLING PURPOSESTRAGEGIC MODELLING PURPOSE • To produce sub area trip tables (1st cut) to To produce sub area trip tables (1st cut) to

assist in the seeding of the Paramics trip tables assist in the seeding of the Paramics trip tables (2nd cut).(2nd cut).

• To produce future trip tables.To produce future trip tables.

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tdMELBOURNE CBDMELBOURNE CBDMETHODOLOGY of Sub-area Trip METHODOLOGY of Sub-area Trip

Table(s) CreationTable(s) Creation• 2 Tiers of sub-area trip tables2 Tiers of sub-area trip tables

• 1st tier - “Strategic Melbourne CBD”1st tier - “Strategic Melbourne CBD”2nd tier - “Microsimulation area”2nd tier - “Microsimulation area”

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tdMELBOURNE CBDMELBOURNE CBD1st Tier Sub-Area 11st Tier Sub-Area 1• Uses a calibrated 2001 strategic (EMME/2) Uses a calibrated 2001 strategic (EMME/2)

network and a 2001 AM trip table from the network and a 2001 AM trip table from the Melbourne Integrated Transport Model as a Melbourne Integrated Transport Model as a base.base.

• Within the cordon of the 1st tier sub-area, the Within the cordon of the 1st tier sub-area, the strategic network is expanded to include strategic network is expanded to include additional zones (parking station level) and additional zones (parking station level) and “little streets” (for access purposes).“little streets” (for access purposes).

• Where possible, the zones are disaggregated to Where possible, the zones are disaggregated to match Council’s database (based on “city match Council’s database (based on “city blocks”).blocks”).

• The cordon of the 1st tier sub-area model The cordon of the 1st tier sub-area model encompasses the 2nd tier sub-area model and a encompasses the 2nd tier sub-area model and a band of land surround it.band of land surround it.

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1st Tier Sub-Area 21st Tier Sub-Area 2 • Trip ends for the 1st Tier Sub-area Model would Trip ends for the 1st Tier Sub-area Model would

NOT match the trip ends obtained by applying NOT match the trip ends obtained by applying generation rates to the parking numbers in each generation rates to the parking numbers in each zone OR to traffic counts on the sub-area zone OR to traffic counts on the sub-area boundary.boundary.

• Note: The parking trip-ends are determined Note: The parking trip-ends are determined using empirical formulae for the three peak using empirical formulae for the three peak periods. The calculation involves applying periods. The calculation involves applying factors to short-term on-street parking supply factors to short-term on-street parking supply and both short and long term off-street parking and both short and long term off-street parking supply. See Table 3 of the paper.supply. See Table 3 of the paper.

For example, AM in-bound = 0.4ON + 0.2ST_OFF For example, AM in-bound = 0.4ON + 0.2ST_OFF + 0.5LT_OFF + 0.3LT_PRIVATE, where+ 0.5LT_OFF + 0.3LT_PRIVATE, whereON = on-street parking, ST_OFF = short-term off-ON = on-street parking, ST_OFF = short-term off-street parking, LT_OFF = long-term…, etcstreet parking, LT_OFF = long-term…, etc

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tdMELBOURNE CBDMELBOURNE CBD2nd Tier Sub-Area 12nd Tier Sub-Area 1• A 1st cut refinement is attained by “Frataring” A 1st cut refinement is attained by “Frataring”

the parking station and external trip end the parking station and external trip end volumes (of the 1st cut sub area network).volumes (of the 1st cut sub area network).

• At this point, the turning volumes would NOT be At this point, the turning volumes would NOT be correct.correct.

• Next, the 1st cut refined trip table is assigned Next, the 1st cut refined trip table is assigned onto the 1st tier sub area network.onto the 1st tier sub area network.

• The model is repeatedly run with different turn The model is repeatedly run with different turn penalty combinations until a reasonable match penalty combinations until a reasonable match is achieved at the intersections.is achieved at the intersections.

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tdMELBOURNE CBDMELBOURNE CBD2nd Tier Sub-Area 22nd Tier Sub-Area 2• The final step is to cut a new sub-area of the 1st The final step is to cut a new sub-area of the 1st

tier sub-area model which will match the level of tier sub-area model which will match the level of detail (links, nodes, location of centroids and detail (links, nodes, location of centroids and their connectors) as the PARAMICS their connectors) as the PARAMICS microsimulation model.microsimulation model.

• A new trip-table is extracted from it.A new trip-table is extracted from it.This trip-table is used as a starting matrix for This trip-table is used as a starting matrix for the PARAMICS model.the PARAMICS model.

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tdMELBOURNE CBDMELBOURNE CBDModelling IssuesModelling Issues• Use stochastic assignment with limited dynamic Use stochastic assignment with limited dynamic

feedback (or limited equilibrium assignment in feedback (or limited equilibrium assignment in EMME/2 terms) to minimise route-choice EMME/2 terms) to minimise route-choice fluctuations.fluctuations.

• Spending lots of time “fiddling” to minimise lane Spending lots of time “fiddling” to minimise lane blockages - the No.1 source of unrealistic traffic blockages - the No.1 source of unrealistic traffic congestion. How?congestion. How?- Refining “signposting”, “nextlanes” and - Refining “signposting”, “nextlanes” and “lanechoices” settings, over-riding the default “lanechoices” settings, over-riding the default values at as many a node as required.values at as many a node as required.- Checking turn capacity, which is a function of - Checking turn capacity, which is a function of turn bay length, green time and “stacking”)turn bay length, green time and “stacking”)- Checking the route-choice characteristics. Is - Checking the route-choice characteristics. Is the set perturbation OK? Is the link or turn the set perturbation OK? Is the link or turn penalty OK?penalty OK?- Where necessary, create a separate physical - Where necessary, create a separate physical link for the right-turn bay.link for the right-turn bay.

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tdCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSMicrosimulation:Microsimulation:• Has NOT displaced 4-step modelling.Has NOT displaced 4-step modelling.

• Has positioned itself as a SYMBIOTIC PARASITE Has positioned itself as a SYMBIOTIC PARASITE to EMME/2, TRIPS, etc.to EMME/2, TRIPS, etc.

• May have reduced market share of 4-step May have reduced market share of 4-step modelling (author’s opinion).modelling (author’s opinion).

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tdACKNOWLEDGEMENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe author is grateful for:The author is grateful for:• Project materials sourced from Andrew O’Brien Project materials sourced from Andrew O’Brien

& Associates Pty Ltd, Ashton Traffic Consulting & Associates Pty Ltd, Ashton Traffic Consulting Pty Ltd and Eppell Olsen Pty Ltd.Pty Ltd and Eppell Olsen Pty Ltd.

• Software information sourced from Quadstone Software information sourced from Quadstone Ltd.Ltd.

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tdADDITIONAL PROJECT ADDITIONAL PROJECT Only If Time Permits:Only If Time Permits:• Ringwood Traffic Study 2001-02.Ringwood Traffic Study 2001-02.

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Ringwood Traffic Ringwood Traffic StudyStudy

Primary Study Area

Ringwood Central Business District

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Major TasksMajor Tasks• Data CollectionData Collection

• Regional Traffic Model Refinement - TRIPSRegional Traffic Model Refinement - TRIPS

• Micro Model Development - PARAMICSMicro Model Development - PARAMICS

• Validation against 2001 data and Regional Validation against 2001 data and Regional Model ForecastsModel Forecasts

• Demand Forecasting 2007Demand Forecasting 2007

• Assessment of Road Network Options 2007Assessment of Road Network Options 2007

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Data CollectionData Collection• 24-Hour Tube Counts24-Hour Tube Counts

• Peak Period Travel TimesPeak Period Travel Times

• Origin-Destination SurveyOrigin-Destination Survey

• VicRoads SCRAM Traffic DataVicRoads SCRAM Traffic Data

• Signal Timing (Phasing and Coordination) DataSignal Timing (Phasing and Coordination) Data

• Full Turning Movements - peak periodsFull Turning Movements - peak periods

• Partial Turning Movements - peak periodsPartial Turning Movements - peak periods

• Car-park entrance Partial Turning MovementsCar-park entrance Partial Turning Movements

• List of Committed and Potential Developments List of Committed and Potential Developments for 2007for 2007

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Models UsedModels Used• TRIPS - Regional 24-Hour Model TRIPS - Regional 24-Hour Model

- forecasts the traffic diversion from new road - forecasts the traffic diversion from new road network (Eastern Fwy Extension and the Scoresby network (Eastern Fwy Extension and the Scoresby Fwy)Fwy)- the basis for generating the 2001 and 2007 trip - the basis for generating the 2001 and 2007 trip matrices for use by PARAMICSmatrices for use by PARAMICS

• PARAMICS - Detailed Peak Hour Microsimulation PARAMICS - Detailed Peak Hour Microsimulation Model Model - provides detailed assessment of traffic controls- provides detailed assessment of traffic controls- level of dynamic representation exceeds the - level of dynamic representation exceeds the regional model’s ability to hone in on “hot-spots”regional model’s ability to hone in on “hot-spots”

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Regional Model Traffic Regional Model Traffic Refinement - Top DownRefinement - Top Down

• Refinement of TRIPS zones and network around Refinement of TRIPS zones and network around RingwoodRingwood- from 3 zones in the study area to 35 zones- from 3 zones in the study area to 35 zones- from “collector-street” level of detail to “parking - from “collector-street” level of detail to “parking station entrance” level of detailstation entrance” level of detail

• Peak Hour Trip Matrices derived from 24-Hour Peak Hour Trip Matrices derived from 24-Hour Matrices using “shape” of Origin-Destination Matrices using “shape” of Origin-Destination Survey, peak hour turning movement counts and Survey, peak hour turning movement counts and daily factors from the tube counts.daily factors from the tube counts.

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Sub-area (Ringwood) Trip Matrix -Sub-area (Ringwood) Trip Matrix -Bottom Up Bottom Up

• Peak Hour figures need to match screen-line countsPeak Hour figures need to match screen-line counts

• ‘‘Matrix Estimation’ module in TRIPS was used to Matrix Estimation’ module in TRIPS was used to adjust the trip-ends to achieve a better match with adjust the trip-ends to achieve a better match with observed counts of shopping centre traffic observed counts of shopping centre traffic generationgeneration

• Iterative process involving judicious selection of Iterative process involving judicious selection of confidence intervals within the ‘Matrix Estimation’ confidence intervals within the ‘Matrix Estimation’ module to achieve “sensible looking” trip matricesmodule to achieve “sensible looking” trip matrices

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Modelled Network Options:Modelled Network Options:

1.1. Existing Conditions (2001)Existing Conditions (2001)

2.2. No road network changes (2007)No road network changes (2007)

3.3. Eastern Freeway to Ringwood Bypass Only (2007)Eastern Freeway to Ringwood Bypass Only (2007)

4. Eastern and Scoresby Freeways to Ringwood (2007), with various configurations of northerly ramps at Maroondah Highway

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2007 AM AND PM PEAK 2007 AM AND PM PEAK CONDITIONSCONDITIONS

• Based on 2001 surveys, the total trips in the PM peak hour are some 25% higher than the AM peak

• Study has shown that in the AM peak all options perform satisfactory.

• In the PM peak, most options resulted in heavily congested or “grid locked” conditions

• The study focused on the PM peak traffic conditions with only “Committed Development” completed

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Figure 1 – Existing Conditions PM Peak (2001)

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Figure 2 – No Road Network ChangesPM Peak (2007)

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Figure 3 – Free Flowing Interchange No Northerly Ramps at Maroondah Highway PM Peak (2007)

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Figure 4 – Free Flowing Interchange Northerly Ramps to Ringwood Bypass Only PM Peak (2007)

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PARAMICS was useful for assessing:• Operation of freeway to freeway/ramp

interchanges (grade-separated, roundabout controlled, signal controlled)

• Likelihood of queue-backs into the Tunnel

• Town-centre traffic management (2 lane Maroondah Highway)

• Ability of the current network to handle growth of Eastland Shopping Centre

• Capacity of turn bays at key intersections

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tdPARAMICSPARAMICSParamics Traffic Simulation considered:• Drivers’ (collective) behavioural characteristics of Drivers’ (collective) behavioural characteristics of

target headways and reaction timestarget headways and reaction times

• Vehicle performance characteristics (speed, Vehicle performance characteristics (speed, acceleration, braking, dimension, mass (gradient acceleration, braking, dimension, mass (gradient sensitive))sensitive))

• Road network characteristicsRoad network characteristics- link capacity (function of physical and behavioural - link capacity (function of physical and behavioural characteristics)characteristics)- geometry & configuration (lane width, no of lanes, - geometry & configuration (lane width, no of lanes, specification of curvilinear alignment)specification of curvilinear alignment)- intersection control (sign, signal)- intersection control (sign, signal)- traffic signal co-ordination- traffic signal co-ordination- “sign-post” for lane-choice decisions- “sign-post” for lane-choice decisions- vehicle-class lane restriction- vehicle-class lane restriction

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tdParamicsParamics

Model SpecificationsModel Specifications• Use of a pre-defined seed to allow

- repeatability between trip assignment runs- consistency across scenarios

• Use of default values for Driver’s Target Headway (1.0s and Driver’s Target Reaction Times (1.0s) on non-freeway roads.

• Use of closer Target Headways (0.6s) for the freeway to match expected peak-hour throughput

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tdParamicsParamics

Calibration Criteria 1Calibration Criteria 1• Minimise blockage caused by overflow in the

right-turn bays- adjusted the trip-matrices where applicable to reasonably match the length of the turn-bay and the green time at the signals

• Minimise occurrence of vehicles turning from an adjacent lane where they were not supposed to turn from- “hard-wired” into the network by coding the right-turn as a separate link

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tdParamicsParamics

Calibration Criteria 2Calibration Criteria 2• Minimise flow breakdowns on the freeway

- varied the “target” headway parameter from the default- use of long approach links- use of multiple vehicle classes and lane restrictions by class to control lane utilisation

• Minimise unrealistic lane utilisation over the course of the simulation which can cause premature blockage- varied the ‘signposting’ distances- judicious use of the ‘nextlanes’ function

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tdParamicsParamics

Calibration Criteria 3Calibration Criteria 3• Saturation flow rate - 1.8s to 2.0s departure rate

of vehicles at the start of the “green” phase

• Assigned traffic being within 10% of the turning movement count and link count

• Stability of the model over time

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tdParamicsParamics

OutputsOutputsVisual

• Moving Vehicles on the Screen - Video Show

• Build up of traffic hot-spots (queues)

• Implied Degrees of Saturation measure - If a queue builds up continuously at one location over time, its DOS is taken to be greater than 1

• Isolated traffic signal performance

• Coordinated traffic signal performance

• Sensitivity of “Before” and “After” configurations

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tdParamicsParamics

OutputsOutputsNumerical

• Volumes - Intersections and Links

• Speeds - Links

• Point-to-point Travel Times- Useful for comparing delays between scenarios

• Economic Indicators (veh-km and veh-hrs)

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tdParamicsParamics

ExamplesExamples• Ringwood

• CBD & Trams

• Bulla Road Weave

• Warrigal Road Ramp Meter

Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 AUTHOR Michael Lee, BE, MITE Andrew OBrien &...

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Transcript of Andrew OBrien & Associates Pty Ltd PARAMICS & EMME/2 AUTHOR Michael Lee, BE, MITE Andrew OBrien &...