Andrew Lyon International Futures Forum Equally Well East Lothian March 16 2009

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Transcript of Andrew Lyon International Futures Forum Equally Well East Lothian March 16 2009

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Andrew Lyon International Futures Forum www.internationalfuturesforum.com Equally Well East Lothian March 16 2009 Slide 2 The History of the Future The art of prophecy is very difficult especially with respect to the future Mark Twain Slide 3 Learning Brain work will cause women to go bald Prof Hans Friedenthal 1914 Motion Pictures will supplant textbooks Thos Edison,1922 Slide 4 Entertainment Speaking movies are impossible. When a century has passed, all thought of so- called speaking movies will have been abandoned D.W. Griffith Hollywood Producer Slide 5 Work By 1960, Work will be limited to three hours a day John Langdon-Davies 1936 Slide 6 Communications Technology We are not going to make personal computers. There is a market for only five of them worldwide Thos Watson IBM, 1956 An amazing invention, but who would ever want to use one of them President Hayes to AG Bell, 1876 One day there will be one of them in every City Chicago 1873 Slide 7 Transport The improvement in city conditions by the general adoption of the motor car can hardly be overestimated. Streets clean, dustless and odourless, with light rubber- tyred vehicles moving swiftly and noiselessly over their smooth expanse. Scientific American 1899 Cars moving swiftly and noiselessly Slide 8 Surgery The abolition of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it today. Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the patients awareness Dr. Alfred Velpeau 1839, seven years before the intro of anaesthesia Slide 9 Health A child born in the year 2000 has a good chance of not dying at all Jaques Bergier, 1968 Slide 10 Health We just wont have arthritis in the year 2000 Dr William Clark, President of the Arthritis Foundation, 1966 Slide 11 Present Past Future Mundane Creative Slide 12 Present Past Future Mundane Creative Slide 13 Present Past Future Mundane Creative Slide 14 Co-Creating Our Future The future is not some place we are going, but one we are creating. The paths to it are not found but made, and the activity of making them changes both the maker and the destination. John Schaar Science Advisor President Richard Nixon Foresight Canada Slide 15 Slide 16 The (really) big picture Slide 17 Slide 18 External world changes Internal world must catch up Alignment Dislocated Slide 19 1. the globalization of everyday life Cognitive Spatial temporal DETERRITORIALIZATION Kickbusch Slide 20 ..to a fragmented POLITICAL ECOSYSTEM BONO CLINTON MSF WEF PHA World Bank Kickbusch Slide 21 Healthscapes: Food Drink - Obesity Kickbusch Slide 22 The World is Very Confusing Place Courtesy of GBN Slide 23 Ways to Respond Slide 24 Retreat to inside the box Slide 25 Slide 26 Descent into chaos Slide 27 Emergent new consciousness? Slide 28 Increases in last 15 years New cases of alcoholism -- 67% New cases of migraine headaches 450 % New cases of ulcers 400% Suicide and violence rates up in all developed nations War trauma affects millions globally Divorce rates up everywhere Number of children in single parent homes up Etc. etc.etc Slide 29 Slide 30 Zinn Join all the dots Four lines No lifting pencil No retracing steps Slide 31 1750 2050 1800 1900 19502000 1800 1900 1950 2000 Enlightenment Materialism Modernism Three broad idea waves, four broad Public Health policy waves Slide 32 Slide 33 When things go wrong, we do not change our view of the world Slide 34 What Kind of Policy Innovation? Innovation here? Slide 35 Exploit Explore Impact/ Results Concepts/ Knowledge Slide 36 Exploit Explore Impact/ Results Concepts/ Knowledge Problem Action Research Options What works? A Policy Cycle Start here Slide 37 Exploit Explore Impact/ Results Concepts/ Knowledge Problem Action Research Options What works? An Extended Policy Cycle How are we thinking about this? Start here Slide 38 Control Homogenisation Abstraction Fragmentation Alienation Participation Diversity Inclusion Fear Love Disappointment and fear Hope and play Participation Giving & Receiving Exploration Imagination Participation Qualitative Control Production & Consumption Data Prediction Quantative Slide 39 Insight Common Knowledge Shared Knowledge Agreed Policy Structured Diffused Codification teams Absorption networks Communities Scanning Letting others know Organisations diffusing Max Boisot IFF Slide 40 Learning the Meaning of Life (Carneiro IFF) BeKnowDoLive Together Human Condition Self Other CitizenParticipationRights & Duties CommunityDiversity Cultural Template BelongDialogue Information & Knowldge Process Share Vocational Identity LearnProduceEndeavourConscience Build Wisdom HumanSynthesisHappinessSolidarity Slide 41 BeKnowDoLive Together Human Condition Self Other CitizenParticipationRights & Duties CommunityDiversity Cultural Template BelongDialogue Information & Knowldge Process Share Vocational Identity LearnProduceEndeavourConscience Build Wisdom HumanSynthesisHappinessSolidarity Learning the Meaning of Life (Carneiro IFF) Slide 42 Slide 43 More dots? No. of dotsNo of possible linksNo of possible patterns 4 6 64 10453.5 trillion (9 zeros) 12644.5 quadrillion (12 zeros) Slide 44 What WE DO, Matters Our world confronts rapid and potentially profound transitions... It is increasingly clear that todays decisions could play a decisive role in determining whether the 21 st Century offers peace and prosperity or crisis and collapse. The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysis Rand Corporation Slide 45 Three practical examples Slide 46 Taking stock past, present, future Issue identification, exploring views, assumptions, challenges Relevant Site Visits, discovery, sensing observation followed by reflection on and analysis of challenges Reframing of original issues in the light of new insight and perspectives Reframe action, policy, direction Four phases of a Learning Journey Types of Activity I II III IV Form team, initial workshop Issue identification Field trips + reflection +refocus on issues Flesh out perspectives and ideas Reporting, new action Ideas based on learning, Testing Learning Journey Slide 47 Slide 48 Slide 49 Positive Deviance In every community and organisation there are people whose uncommon behaviours or practices enable them to do better than their colleagues or neighbours with the same resources. How do we find out what these are and encourage and support others to do similarly? Slide 50 Six Ds Define the problem, define what success looks like Determine if anyone/anywhere exhibits this already Discover the practices which support their success Design and implement activities which enable others Discern effectiveness Disseminate to others Examples Vietnam, MRSA in the USA More at www.positivedeviance.orgwww.positivedeviance.org Podcast at www.gcph.org.ukwww.gcph.org.uk Slide 51 Slide 52 Why do we always learn about Geology the day after an earthquake Ralph Waldo Emerson Slide 53 Develop a future consciousness to inform the present www.internationalfuturesforum.com Slide 54 The Context East Lothian in a changing, world PESTL etc Ways Through Aspiration Examples Nuts and Bolts Actions Networks Learning Applying Stuck in survival mode Defensive routines Utopia Trap Sharing possibilities Reframing resources Silos too difficult Fail to learn Sacred Cows Negativity Preconceptions advances Failure of Imagination Withdrawal Global Local Equally well for a Changing World