Ancient and Medieval Growth - Brad DeLong's …...Ancient and Medieval Growth Melissa Dell Theories...

Ancient andMedieval Growth

Melissa Dell

Theories AboutPre-ModernEconomic Growth

The MalthusianModel: Theory

The MalthusianModel: Evidence

An alternativeframework: Acemogluand Robinson

The Rise and Fallof AncientSocieties

The Rise and Fall ofthe Maya

The Rise and Fall ofRome

The Middle Ages

Collapse and BoomDuring the MiddleAges

The Emergence fromthe Middle Ages:Second Serfdom

The Emergence fromthe Middle Ages inWestern Europe

Initial Construction ofa Modern State inEngland

Elsewhere in theWorld

Ancient and Medieval Growth

Melissa Dell

September 2017


Melissa Dell








The Middle Ages






After the Neolithic Revolution

I In the last Lecture we examined two approaches tothinking about the Neolithic Revolution. The first(Diamond) based on the exogenous availability of plantand animal species. The other (Acemoglu-Robinson)based on institutional changes: the development ofpolitical centralization, sedentism, and hierarchy.

I As I discussed in Lecture 1, living standards were largelyunchanged between the Neolithic Revolution and theIndustrial Revolution.

I This fact masks a lot of interesting dynamics that wewill examine now.


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Outline

Theories About Pre-Modern Economic GrowthThe Malthusian Model: TheoryThe Malthusian Model: EvidenceAn alternative framework: Acemoglu and Robinson

The Rise and Fall of Ancient SocietiesThe Rise and Fall of the MayaThe Rise and Fall of Rome

The Middle AgesCollapse and Boom During the Middle AgesThe Emergence from the Middle Ages: Second SerfdomThe Emergence from the Middle Ages in Western EuropeInitial Construction of a Modern State in EnglandElsewhere in the World


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The Malthusian Model

I The traditional theory about long-run stagnation stemsfrom Thomas Malthus’ book An Essay on the Principleof Population first published in 1798.

I In the simplest version of the model, deaths are adecreasing function of income, D(yt): D ′ < 0

I Births, B, are independent of income, and populationdynamics are as follows

Nt+1 = Nt + B − D(yt)

I Income per-capita is decreasing in N (according todiminishing marginal product of labor) so there is afunction yt = Af (Nt) with f ′ < 0.A is productivity.

I There is a unique attracting steady-state withNt+1 = Nt where income per-capita y∗ is defined byB = D(y∗) and steady-state population N∗ = f −1( y

∗

A ).


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y

D(y),B(y)

B(y)

D(y)

N

y=Af(N)y*

N*


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Comparative Statics

I Income per-capita always returns to the point where thebirth rate equals the death rate. This is the uniqueattracting steady-state of the model.

I What happens if TFP improves from A to A′ > A? Thismeans more output for any level of population. Theinitial level of population N∗ now produces an incomelevel y ′ > y∗. This leads to higher incomes and anexcess of births over deaths since B > D(y ′). Inconsequence the population expands from N∗ to N ′

until income per-capita is driven back down to where itwas before.

I The same is true for other changes which have similarimplications for the relationship between population andincome, for instance good government.


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Comparative Statics - Technological InnovationComparative Statics

–

Technological Improvement

y

D(y),B(y)

B(y)

D(y)

N

y=Af(N)y*

N*

y=A’f(N)Where A’>A

y’

N’


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Outline





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The Malthusian Model: Evidence

I Malthusian model implies that even though the Spanishmight have had better technology than the Inca, thereincome per-capita ought to have differed only accordingto their fertility and mortality schedules.

I But there are some problems with this view. Populationdensity in the pre-modern era is positively correlatedwith proxies for per-capita income, such as urbanizationor Maddison’s income estimates.

I In addition, measures of good government, such asproxies for constraints on the executive, are correlatedwith urbanization in this period.

I For example, DeLong and Shleifer (1993) showed therewas a strong correlation between form of governmentand urbanization in the pre-modern world


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Evidence about the Malthusian Model: TheBlack Death

I A basic premise of the Malthusian model is that whenpopulation falls, incomes should rise. Is that true?

I One important event used to support the Malthusianmodel is the Black Death.

I As the data for Western Europe shows, after thepopulation collapse, real wages eventually increased.However, the reality is more complex than is conveyedby the Malthusian model.

I After the Black Death, the government of Edward IIItried to stop wages from rising by passing the Statuteof Labourers.

I They were on partially able to enforce this, however, andafter the Peasants Revolt of 1381, they mostly gave up.


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Real Wages and the Black Death

Source: E. H. Phelps Brown, E.H. and Sheila V. Hopkins

(1955) Seven Centuries of Building Wages,”

Economica, 22,195-206.


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The Statue of Labourers 1351 - wages

I “Because a great part of the people and especially ofthe, workmen and servants has now died in thatpestilence, some, seeing the straights of the mastersand the scarcity of servants, are not willing to serveunless they receive excessive wages ... We, consideringthe grave inconveniences which might come from thelack especially of ploughmen and such labourers, have... seen fit to ordain: that every man and woman of ourkingdom of England ... shall be bound to serve him whohas seen fit so to seek after him; and he shall take onlythe wages liveries, meed or salary which, in the placeswhere he sought to serve, were accustomed to be paidin the twentieth year of our reign of England, or the fiveor six common years next preceding [1347].”

I Source: Rosemary Horrox ed. (1994) The Black Death,Manchester University Press.


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The Statue of Labourers 1351 - ‘enticement’

“And if a reaper or mower, or other workman orservant, of whatever standing or condition he be,who is retained in the service of any one, do departfrom the said service before the end of the termagreed, without permission or reasonable cause, heshall undergo the penalty of imprisonment, and letno one ... moreover, pay or permit to be paid toany one more wages, livery, meed or salary thanwas customary as has been said.”


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Factor Supplies and Wages in Mexico

I Do real wages always increase after negative populationshocks? Some other instances support this view. Forexample, after the Great Potato Famine in Irelandbetween 1846 and 1849, when probably 20% of thepopulation died or left, real wages increasedsubstantially afterwards.

I However, the evidence is less clear elsewhere. Forinstance, after the conquest of Mexico the indigenouspopulation fell by around 90%.

I This ought to have led to a huge increase in real wages,but it did not.


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The Potato Famine in Ireland: DemographicConsequences

Demographic Consequences of the Potato Famine in Ireland


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Real Wages in Ireland: 1785-1870

Source: Geary, Frank and Tom Stark (2004) “Trends in real wages during the industrial revolution: a view from across the Irish Sea,” Economic History Review, 57, 362 - 395.


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Average Real Daily Wages for Unskilled WorkersFigure 11Average Real Daily Wages for Unskilled Workers

(Using average prices for the period under which each wage level was effective)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

1530

1534

1538

1542

1546

1550

1554

1558

1562

1566

1570

1574

1578

1582

1586

1590

1594

1598

1602

1606

1610

1614

1618

1622

1626

1630

1634

1638

1642

1646

1650

Year

Fane

gas

of M

aize

Source: Own Calculations based on Borah and Cook (1958) and Gibson (1964)

Source: Acemoglu, Daron, Pablo Querubín

and James A. Robinson (2008) “Supply≠Demand: Population Decline and Real Wages in Mexico, 1530-1650,”

Work in Progress.


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Average Real Daily Wages in ObrajesFigure 15

Average Real Daily Wages In Obrajes(Using 5-year price averages)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1565

1567

1569

1571

1573

1575

1577

1579

1581

1583

1585

1587

1589

1591

1593

1595

1597

1599

1601

1603

1605

1607

1609

1611

1613

1615

1617

1619

1621

1623

1625

1627

1629

1631

1633

Year

Fane

gas

of M

aize

Lower Range Medium Range Maximum Range

Source: Own Calculations based on Borah and Cook (1958), Gibson (1964) and Viqueira and Urquiola (1990)


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Why didn’t Real Wages rise in Mexico?

I Data are from the Repartimiento, which was a systemof central labor allocation. Spaniards who wanted laborhad to petition the Viceroy who would allocateAmerindian workers and determine the nominal wagethey would be paid. There are also data from laborcontracts in textile obrajes.

I In both cases, coercion was used to repress wages andat least in the case of the repartimiento, the centralizednature of the system possibly stopped the type of‘enticement’ which undermined the intent of theStatute of Labourers in England.

I Meanwhile in South America, a massive forced laborsystem called the mita system was instituted.

I The relative advantage of the Spanish state was higherthan that of the English state in the 14th century.


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Feudal Power and Mill Prices

I What was it that allowed the Spanish settlers in Mexicoto keep wages so low, when in England after the BlackDeath the state had been incapable of enforcing theStatue of Laborers and stopping wages from rising?

I The economic historian Bruce Campbell has proposedthat this may have been because of the differentialorganization of landholdings in Britain, which increasedcompetition between landowners for workers after theBlack Death.

I The next figure shows the prices of Mills in differentparts of England. These were owned by Lords andvalued on their death.


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Mills

Source: Campbell, Bruce and Ken Bartley

(2006) England on the Eve of the Black Death: An Atlas of Lay Lordship,Land and wealth, 1300-1349,

Manchester University Press.

Mean value of Mills owned

by Lords as valued upon

their death 1300-1349


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Landholdings in England

I After invading England, William the Conquerorrewarded his army by providing them with feudallandholdings.

I In an effort to prevent these nobles from becomingpowerful regional warlords who could challenge theking’s power, each noble received landholdings scatteredacross the country

I The exception was along the Scottish border, wherenobles were given large plots for defensive purposes


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The Manors of Lord Gilbert de Clare (1314)The Manors of Gilbert de Clare


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I This division of landholdings meant that in a givenregion, there were many landholders - and mill owners -in close proximity.

I This created intense competitive pressures for labor,particularly in the wake of the Black Death

I This contrasts to Mexico, where conquistadors weregranted vast contiguous tracks of land calledencomiendas

I We will return to land inequality when we discussincome divergence in the Americas


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The Malthusian Model: Summing Up

I The simple Malthusian model may capture somerealities. If labor markets are competitive, populationgrowth may indeed induce a decline in wages. Or ifthere is a fixed amount of land and few opportunitiesfor labor intensive cultivation systems, a populationincrease may lead to a decline in output per worker.

I However, the reality is typically more complex. Howwages respond to changes in income will depend oninstitutions.

I This raises the possibility that institutional or culturalfactors may have influenced pre-modern growth, ratherthan it simply being dictated by the relationshipbetween births, deaths, and income, as suggested byMalthus.


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Outline





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Pre-Modern Economic Dynamics

I In Lecture 1, we saw evidence that there were nosustained changes in living standards prior to theIndustrial Revolution in the 18th century.

I The Malthusian model could explain this: improvementsin technology do not affect living standards becausepopulation expands in response, inexorably drivingper-capita income back to the level which equatesbirths and deaths. Certainly, global population did growsubstantially between the Neolithic Revolution and theeve of the Industrial Revolution.

I However, the Malthusian model, which its fixation onbirths and deaths, misses a great deal of the interestingaction prior to the industrial revolution.

I An alternative explanation for why there was nolong-run trend in living standards is the theory of ‘riseand decline’ (Acemoglu and Robinson).


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Motivation: Ancient Greece

I When the Greek city states emerged they did so withfunctional systems of governance which provided publicgoods, such as security for trade and investment.

I This initiated a period of sustained increases in livingstandards.


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Ancient Greece

Source: Morris, Ian (2004) “Economic Growth in Ancient Greece,” Journal of Institutional

And Theoretical Economics, 160, 709-742.


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Ancient Greece

Population Went Up

Source: Morris, Ian (2004) “Economic Growth in Ancient Greece,” Journal of InstitutionalAnd Theoretical Economics, 160, 709-742.


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Ancient Greece

Life Expectancy Increased

Source: Morris, Ian (2004) “Economic Growth in Ancient Greece,” Journal of InstitutionalAnd Theoretical Economics, 160, 709-742.


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Ancient Greece

Source: Morris, Ian (2004) “Economic Growth in Ancient Greece,” Journal of

Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 160, 709-742.

Houses got Bigger


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Ancient Greece

I While Ancient Greece did have a period of democracy,it was relative short (less than 200 years) compared tothe duration of the polity and most citizens - slaves,poor citizens who couldn’t afford their tax bill, women -could not participate.

I Greek institutions (rules according to which the societywas organized) tended to be “extractive.” For example,the economy was largely based upon slavery.

I Extractive political institutions concentrate politicalpower in the hands of some group who can use thatpower to redistribute wealth and income to themselves.This resulting concentration of wealth tends to reinforcethe initial set of political institutions.


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Growth and Extractive Institutions

I Acemoglu and Robinson hypothesize that growth wasnot sustained in ancient societies because theirinstitutions were extractive, and extractive institutionsare incompatible with sustaining growth in the long run.

I They argue that this is because extracting resourcescreates conflicts over who will control those resources,and it may also induce rebellion from below.

I In either case political instability can bring thegovernment and economy down.

I We will examine two other examples of this, which arediscussed in the Acemoglu and Robinson book: Romeand the Mayan city states.


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Outline





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The Mayan City States

I One of the most famous instances of the rise anddecline of a civilization is that of the Mayan city states,located in Southern Mexico, Belize, Guatemala andWestern Honduras.

I Mayan cities began to develop around 500BCE. Theearly cities failed some time in the first century AD butat the same time a new political ‘model’ emerged whichcreated the foundations for the Classic Era between 250and 900AD. This period marks the full flowering ofMayan technology.

I The Mayans had writing, a very sophisticated calendar,occupational specialization with skilled potters, weavers,woodworkers, tool and ornament makers, they tradedobsidian, salt and feathers with themselves and otherpolities over long distances in Mexico. However,agricultural technology was stagnant.


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The Political Model

I Dynastic kingdoms emerge around 100AD at Tikal inGuatemala. A ruling class emerged based on the ajaw(lord or ruler) with a king called the k’uhul ajaw (divinelord), who communicated with the Gods and governedthe society.

I We know little about who owned the land, labor marketinstitutions, levels of taxation or tribute.


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Endemic Warfare

I Mayan states seem to have engaged in constantwarfare. There were long contests for power betweenthe larger states, such as Tikal, Calakmul, Copan andPalenque, and these also subjugated smaller states intoa vassal status.

I Evidence for this comes from glyphs which mark royalaccessions. Instead of just giving the name of the newking, there is a glyph indicating ‘he supervised it’,suggesting the dominance of another ruler.


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He Supervised It

He supervised it

http://www.famsi.org/reports/01080/section05.htm


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The rulers of Bonampak with their captives

The rulers of Bonampak with their captives


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Interrelationships between Mayan States

Interrelationships between Mayan states

Source: Martin, Simon and Nikolai Grube (2000) Chronicle of the Maya Kings andQueens, London: Thames & Hudson. p. 21


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Endemic Warfare

I This experience is interesting since one of the greattheses about ‘European exceptionalism’ is that incontrast to other parts of the world Europe was differentbecause it was composed of many competing statesthat had to innovate to survive. In contrast China was alarge unified empire without these pressures.

I For example, this view is argued in the Epilogue ofGuns, Germs and Steel.

I Leaving aside whether this makes sense for China, itignores the political history of the rest of the world.


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The ‘Collapse’ of the Mayan States

I The collapse was a multifaceted event which influencedthe southern Mayan areas. David Webster summarizesit as follows (p. 213-214):

1. Beginning in the late 8th century royal dynastiesdisappeared over huge regions. This happened rapidly insome places, but took 100 years in others. In someplaces non-royal elites also vanish at the same time.

2. Royal courts did not function, monuments and templeswere not carved.

3. With notable exceptions, major centers (e.g. Dos Pilasand the cities of the Petexbatun) were abandonedwithout signs of widespread and severe violence, thoughlater many monuments were defaced or destroyed.

4. This happened at a time of maximum population,intense warfare and possible environmental degradation.


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No More Kings

Source: Martin, Simon and Nikolai Grube (2000) Chronicle of the Maya Kings andQueens, London: Thames & Hudson. p. 22-23.

No More Kings….


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Monuments

Source: Sidrys, Raymond and Rainer Berger (1979) “Lowland Maya radiocarbon dates and the

Classic Maya Collapse,” Nature, 277, 269-277.


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Documenting the Collapse

I AnnCorinne Freter, Nancy Golin, and David Webster(Copan: The Rise and Fall of an Ancient MayanKingdom) have used archaeological surveys of theextent of settlement along with radio-carbon dating toestimate the historical population of Copan.

I The figure of 28,000 around 800AD, though it isobviously uncertain, would make Copan bigger thanLondon or Paris! Other cities, such as Tikal orCalakmul were quite a bit larger.

I The dynamics of population vividly illustrate thecollapse.


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The Rise and Fall of CopanThe Rise and Fall of Copán


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Population History of Copan


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This pattern was replicated elsewhere


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Explaining the Collapse

I Webster gives a comprehensive overview of the differenttheories.

I What seems clear is that the collapse coincided with aloss of power/legitimacy of the Divine Kings. It is hardto know if this was the result of warfare or someideological crisis.

I The kingship collapsed and with it the public goodsthat the state provided. Political decentralizationoccurred, population fell (the area was very depopulatedwhen Cortes travelled through it in the early 16thcentury) and trade declined.


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A Malthusian Crisis?

I Webster discusses this idea but it is hard to describethese dynamics simply in terms of rising population anddeclining living standards.

I First of all there is little evidence of declining livingstandards. Though skeletal evidence certainly suggeststhat Mayan were unhealthy and had low life expectancy,it does not suggest any general tendency for adeterioration despite of the fact that population grewenormously.

I The striking thing is the institutional collapse whichoccurs right at the transition between expansion anddecline.

I The institutional organization of the Mayan states wasenough to create growth, but it was not sustainable,possibly because it created large rents for an elite,which generated conflicts over rents.


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Outline





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The Rise and Fall of RomeI Acemoglu and Robinson argue that the rise and fall of

Rome can be described in a similar way (Chapter 6).I The origins of Rome’s economic and military success are

plausibly rooted in institutional innovation.I In 510BC, the citizens of Rome overthrew their king,

Lucius Tarquinius Superbus, known as ‘Tarquin theProud’ and created a republic.

I The state was run by elected officials, two consuls whohad the job for one year, magistrates and tribunes. Thefact that the office was elected, annual, and held bymultiple people at the same time reduced the ability ofany one person to consolidate or exploit his power.

I The institutions of the Republic contained a system ofchecks and balances which distributed power fairlywidely. Even if elite families had far more power, it waspossible for non elites, so called plebeians, to get to thetop, and they constrained the power of the elites.


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The Assemblies

I Rome had three types of assembly: the centuriate (amilitary division), the tribal assembly (a civil divisionbased on geography), and the plebeian assembly (whereonly commoners could vote).

I The centuriate assemblies consisted of one hundred andninety three centuries on the basis of militaryorganization. The tribal assembly, after 241 BC,consisted of thirty five tribes which were formed on thebasis of geographical location.


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The Assemblies

I Different assemblies had different areas in which theyhad powers. For example only the centuriate assemblycould vote on issues of war and peace. The plebeiansassembly voted on issues that affected commoners.

I The officials who summoned the assemblies controlledthe agenda in the sense that they determined whatissues would be voted on and citizens could not amendlaws or propose different issues to vote on.

I There was also the Senate.


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Economic Growth

I The military and political expansion of Rome is perhapsmore striking than the economic expansion.

I There are many interesting ways to track this expansion.


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Measuring Expansion

I Shipwrecks indicate trade, but they also track themovement of goods by fiat. For example, the citizens ofRome were kept happy by the free distribution of breadafter 58BC. This was later extended to olive oil andeven wine. This had to be shipped (mostly from Egyptand North Africa).

I The Romans also moved around taxes levied in theprovinces and supplied their troops. Some argue that2/3 of all the ‘trade’ was actually the state moving stuffaround.

I For Roman citizens, economic institutions were quitegood. However, the Italian economy was based onslavery (about 35% of the population of Italy wereslaves at the time of the Emperor Augustus). Therewas little technological change.


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Rise and Fall of Rome as Measured byShipwrecksThe Rise and Fall of Rome as measured by Shipwrecks

Source: Jongman, Willem M. (2007)

“Gibbon was Right: The Decline and Fall of the Roman Economy,”

in O. Hekster

et. al. eds. Crises and the Roman Empire, Brill.


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Rise and Fall of Rome as Measured by LeadPollution in Greenland

The Rise and Fall of Rome as measured by lead pollution in Greenland



in O. Hekster



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Rise and Fall of Rome as Measured by WoodRemains Wood remains…



in O. Hekster



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Rise and Fall of Rome as Measured byArchaeological FindsArchaeological finds…



in O. Hekster



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Archaeological Finds

Monte Testaccio

(Pottery Mountain) in Rome-

53 million broken amphorae


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Political Transition

I The expansion of Rome’s conquests created inequalityand increasing political instability.

I There were calls for the redistribution of land andpower.

I For example, Plebeian Tribune Tiberius Gracchusstarted to develop very ‘populist’ political platformswhich threatened the senatorial elites.

I The culmination of this was civil war, the dictatorshipof Julius Caesar, and finally the creation of the Empireunder Augustus.


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Political Transition

I Augustus reformed the army, removing it as a bastion ofplebeian power.

I His successor Tiberias stripped the assemblies of powersand gave them to the senate.

I A hereditary monarchy replaced the Republic.

I This was a move towards more extractive politicalinstitutions and though it stabilized things for awhile,there was an eventual movement towards even moreextractive economic institutions.


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When did decline set in?

I While the existing data are somewhat contradictory, theconsensus amongst archaeologists is the early 2ndcentury.

I A new social distinction between honestiores (highstatus) and humiliores (low status with different laws)was introduced.

I Citizens began to lose their rights and by the end of the2nd century, they were being tied to the land as serfs.


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The Decline of Rome

I The Barbarians were at the gates, but it seemsreasonable to see this as an outcome of the weakeningof Roman institutions

I Earlier Rome had defeated far more formidable andbetter organized enemies like the Carthaginians.

I Acemoglu and Robinson argue that the big fact aboutwhat preceded the decline is that political institutionsmoved in a much more extractive direction and this wasfollowed by economic institutions.


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A Malthusian Crisis?

I Jongman (“Gibbon was Right”) proposes that theAntonine plague which hit the Roman Empire around160AD is the most likely explanation for the collapse ofRome.

I But Malthusian crises are supposed to increase livingstandards, not reduce them.

I Let me explain the Domar hypothesis which underpinsJongman’s discussion.


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The Incentive to Enslave - The DomarHypothesis

The Incentive to Enslave -

The Domar

Hypothesis

Realwage

L

Labor Demand

Cost of enslavingPeople (per-capita)

Initialequilibriumwage

Initial labor supply


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Consequences of the Antonine Plague

Consequences of the Antonine

Plague

Realwage

L

Labor Demand


Post-plagueequilibriumWage without slavery

Post-plague labor supply

When population falls itBecomes worthwhile toincur the costs of enslaving


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Summary: The Logic of Acemoglu andRobinson’s Theory of Ancient Rise and Decline

I Historically economic growth coincided withinstitutional innovation: creation of states with workingpolitical institutions that could provide public goods,law and order, encourage trade etc.

I Functioning states could also raise taxes and fundarmies, allowing widespread conquests.

I However, they argue these were fundamentallyextractive institutions, even if in some cases economicinstitutions were initially relatively inclusive.

I They argue that extractive growth is not sustainedbecause there is little technological change. Moreover,it naturally creates political instability which eventuallydestroys the institutions which started the growth.


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Outline





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From Collapse to Boom

I Earlier we talked about two boom and bust cycles, thatof Rome and that of the Mayan city states.

I The decline after the collapse of Roman authority waspronounced, particularly in the West: By 450AD all thetrappings of Roman economic prosperity were gone.Money vanished from circulation. Urban areas wereabandoned and buildings stripped of stone. The roadswere overgrown with weeds. The only type of potterywhich was fabricated was crude and hand made, notmanufactured. People forgot how to use mortar andthey also forgot how to read and write. Roofs weremade of branches, not tiles.

I The Eastern Roman Empire lived on but it contractedsignificantly with the rise of Islam in the 7th Century.

I However, the view that the entire Middle Ages was aperiod of economic stagnation is inaccurate


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Definition of Feudalism (Marc Bloch, p. 466 ofFeudal Society

Feudalism according to Marc Bloch p. 446 of Feudal Society.


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The Medieval ‘Boom’ in Europe

I The decline of central authority plausibly led tofeudalism, which was a very decentralized system ofgovernance.

I Nevertheless, by the late Middle Ages feudalism was astable system, and in the context of this relativestability, trade expanded.

I We can measure this in various ways. There is scattereddata on the size of cities from which economichistorians have constructed urbanization numbers.These show the number of cities increasing and alsourbanization increasing. More monasteries were builtand more books were written/produced (copied).

I Less systematic data suggests that trade expanded.

I If urbanization is a good proxy for income per-capita,we would expect that this increased as well.


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Urbanization Rates

Source: Bosker, Maarten, Eltjo

Buringh

and Jan Luiten

van Zandem

(2007) “From Baghdad to Lond

The Dynamics of Urban Growth in Europe and the Arab World”, Unpublished.

Urbanization Rates


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Major Cities


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Major Cities

Source: Bosker, Maarten, Eltjo

Buringh

and Jan Luiten

van Zandem

(2007) “From Baghdad to Londo

The Dynamics of Urban Growth in Europe and the Arab World”, Unpublished.

The Number of Cities


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Expansion of Monastery Building

Source: Eltjo

Buringh

and Jan Luiten

van Zanden

(2005) “Charting the "rise of the West". Manuscript and

printed books in Europe, a long-term perspective from the sixth through eighteenth century”

Expansion of Monastry

Building


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The Middle Ages






Book Manuscript Production

Source: Eltjo

Buringh

and Jan Luiten

van Zanden

(2005) “Charting the "rise of the West". Manuscript and

printed books in Europe, a long-term perspective from the sixth through eighteenth century”

Book Manuscript Production in Europe


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The Middle Ages






The Population of EnglandThe Population of England

Source: Dyer, Christopher (2002) Making a Living in the Middle Ages, Yale UniversityPress. p. 235.


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The Middle Ages






English Wool and Cloth ExportsEnglish Wool and Cloth Exports

Source: Dyer, Christopher (2002) Making a Living in the Middle Ages, Yale UniversityPress. p. 244.


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The Middle Ages






The Medieval Boom and the Black Death

I Acemoglu and Robinson argue that in Western Europe,feudalism and the Medieval Boom collapsed with theBlack Death, ultimately leading to a new set ofinstitutions that sustained economic growth.

I The collapse of institutions in Western Europe camewith a great deal of disorganization and chaos - forinstance the 100 Years War between 1337 and 1453between England and France.

I We saw that Jongmans’ idea about the collapse of theRoman Empire was that the Antonine Plague tippedinstitutions in a direction that emphasized laborcoercion. The Black Death did that in Eastern Europe.In Western Europe, it did not. However, a new politicalmodel needed to develop before the economic benefitsof the decline of feudalism could be experienced.


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The Middle Ages






The Emergence from the Middle Ages

I We will now consider the Middle Ages in Europe, andwhy different societies emerged from it very differently.

I Again, political institutions - particularly as they relateto labor coercion - will be important.


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The Middle Ages






Outline





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The Middle Ages






Returning to the Black Death

I Some time around the middle of 1346 the bubonicplague reached the city of Tana at the mouth of theRiver Don on the Black Sea. It traveled from Chinabrought by traders along the Silk Road.

I The plague was transmitted by fleas that lived on rats.

I Tana was a port and the rats were soon spreading thefleas and devastation around the Mediterranean throughGenoese ships.

I By early 1347 it had reached Constantinople.

I In the spring of 1348 it spread through France andNorth Africa and up the boot of Italy.


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The Middle Ages






The Advance of the Black Death

-

? 1346 1347 1348 1349 1350 1351 1352 1353 No data

The advance of the Black Death year by year

DDDDDDD

? t

Olle;:11

.••••••• Approximate border between the Mongol Kkanate, the Golden Horde, and the Russian principalities Passage prohibited for Christians.

ATLANTIC OCEA N

........ (I........

L = Lincoln N = Newark Ly = Lynn H = Harwich C = Colchester

,\ral Sell

\.-

-Fez

Madrid I, ,

" Iper",'an \ Gllif

-----------------------------------_./ Asvut .' \ ) I. Spread of the Black Death in the Old World, 1346-1353


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The Middle Ages






The Plague in Florence

I The plague wiped out around half of the population ofany area it hit. Its arrival in the Italian city of Florencewas witnessed first hand by the Italian writer GiovanniBoccaccio. He later recalled

“In the face of its onrush, all the wisdom and ingenuity of manwere unavailing .. the plague began, in a terrifying andextraordinary manner, to make its disastrous effects apparent. Itdid not take the form it had assumed in the East, where if anyonebled from the nose it was an obvious portent of certain death. Onthe contrary, its earliest symptom . . . was the appearance ofcertain swellings in the groin or armpit, some of which wereegg-shaped whilst others were roughly the size of a common apple.. Later on the symptoms of the disease changed, and many peoplebegan to find dark blotches and bruises on their arms, thighs andother parts of their bodies ... Against these maladies .. all theadvice of physicians and all the power of medicine were profitlessand unavailing .. and in most cases death occurred within threedays from the appearance of the symptoms we have described.”


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The Middle Ages






The Black Death in Eastern Europe

I The plague seems to have hit most of Europe, and thepercentage of people killed was similar across space.

I After the plague, landlords in Eastern Europe started totake over large tracts of land and expand their holdings,which were already larger than those in Western Europe.

I Towns were weaker and less populous and rather thanbecoming freer, workers began to see their alreadyexisting freedoms encroached on: the Domar hypothesisat work.

I This contrasts with the English case, which we discussedlast lecture, and with Western Europe more generally.


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The Middle Ages






The Second Serfdom

I This phenomenon is known as the Second Serfdom, todistinguish it from the original serfdom which hadhappened in the early Middle Ages.

I The effects became especially pronounced after 1500,when Western Europe began to demand the agriculturalgoods which the East produced such as wheat, rye andlivestock.

I 80 percent of the imports of rye into Amsterdam cameeast from the Elbe, Vistula and Oder river valleys. Soonhalf of the Netherlands’ booming trade was withEastern Europe.

I Eastern landlords ratcheted up their control over thelabor force to expand their production.


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The Middle Ages






The Second Serfdom

I The historical literature emphasizes that the SecondSerfdom was distinct and more intense than the original

I Lords increased the taxes they levied on their tenants.In Mecklenberg in Eastern Germany in 1500, peasantsowed only a few days unpaid labor services a year tolandowners. By 1550 this was one day a week and by1600 three days per week. Workers’ children had towork for the lord for free for several years.

I In Hungary, landlords legislated one day a week ofunpaid labor services for each worker. In 1550 this wasraised to 2 days per week. By the end of the century itwas 3 days. Serfs subject to these rules made up 90%of the rural population by this time.


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The Middle Ages






The Incentive to Enslave - The DomarHypothesis

The Incentive to Enslave -

The Domar

Hypothesis

Realwage

L

Labor Demand


Initialequilibriumwage

Initial labor supply


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The Middle Ages






Consequences of a Plague

Consequences of the Antonine

Plague

Realwage

L

Labor Demand


Post-plagueequilibriumWage without slavery

Post-plague labor supply

When population falls itBecomes worthwhile toincur the costs of enslaving


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The Middle Ages






The Second Serfdom

I Jongmans explicitly compares the decline of Rome tothe Second Serfdom.

I His argument is that the most important potentialimpact of population collapse is on institutions. Hisargument is that the Antonine plague pushed economicinstitutions into a much more extractive mode and thisis why the Empire collapsed.

I An obvious mechanism is that extractive institutionscreate conflict and instability, as we saw with theMayans.

I But this is outside the scope of the Domar model.Clearly, the model needs not just to be amended byintroducing power but also the fact that when the labormarket ‘power’ of workers is high this can not onlyavoid slavery or serfdom but can induce otherinstitutional changes in society.


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The Middle Ages






Outline





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The Middle Ages






Recall Our Discussion of Mill Prices in England

I What was it that allowed landlords in Eastern Europe tointensify serfdom, when in England after the BlackDeath the state was incapable of enforcing the Statueof Laborers and stopping wages from rising?

I The economic historian Bruce Campbell has proposedthat this may have been because of the differentialorganization of landholdings in Britain, which increasedcompetition between landowners for workers after theBlack Death.

I He uses data on the prices of mills in different parts ofEngland. These were owned by Lords and valued ontheir death.


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The Middle Ages







I After invading England, William the Conquerorrewarded his army by providing them with feudallandholdings.

I In an effort to prevent these nobles from becomingpowerful regional warlords who could challenge theking’s power, each noble received landholdings scatteredacross the country

I The exception was along the Scottish border, wherenobles were given large plots for defensive purposes


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The Middle Ages






The Manors of Lord Gilbert de Clare (1314)The Manors of Gilbert de Clare


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The Middle Ages






Mills

Source: Campbell, Bruce and Ken Bartley

(2006) England on the Eve of the Black Death: An Atlas of Lay Lordship,Land and wealth, 1300-1349,

Manchester University Press.

Mean value of Mills owned

by Lords as valued upon

their death 1300-1349


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The Middle Ages







I This division of landholdings meant that in a givenregion, there were many landholders - and mill owners -in close proximity.

I This created intense competitive pressures for labor,particularly in the wake of the Black Death

I This contrasts to Eastern Europe


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The Middle Ages






The Plague in Western versus Eastern Europe

I The direction in which institutions move can differdramatically depending on the initial conditions.

I In the 1340s in Eastern Europe the Grand Duchy ofLithuania (founded by Mindaugas in 1253) wasexpanding East and South.

I Hungary was ruled by Charles I, from the House ofAnjou in France. Another line of this family ruledEngland until the present day - the House ofPlantagenet, Lancashire, York, Tudor ... were alldecedents of the Angevins.

I European states all ruled over a rural economy usingsimilar technology and with similar institutions, butcertain differences - like landholding patterns - mayhave been critical.


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The Middle Ages






Eastern versus Western Europe

I A famous analysis of the divergence between Easternand Western Europe at the end of the Middle Ages isby the Marxist historian Robert Brenner. Brenner’s goalis to explain what led to ‘capitalism’ in Western Europe.

I By capitalism, Brenner means an interlocking set ofinstitutions that emerged from feudalism: privateownership of land and assets, free markets for goodsand services, and people motivated by profit andself-interest maximization.

I Brenner argues that the emergence of capitalisticinstitutions and values are what created the industrialrevolution.


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The Middle Ages






What drove the ‘Transition to Capitalism’ fromfeudalism?

I Brenner is interested in what drove this change. Hewants to criticize two views of the emergence ofcapitalism which he regards as wrong: (1) theCommercialization Model, (2) the Demographic Model.

I Brenner himself puts forward what he calls the ClassConflict Model (which of course originates with Marx).


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The Middle Ages






The Commercialization Model: Evidence in Favor

I The Commercialization view argues that it wasexpanding trade and the spread of what M.M. Postancalled the ‘money economy’ - during the MedievalBoom - that gradually eroded the feudal ‘non-market’economy, inevitably leading to capitalism.

I In the Medieval period the market certainly expanded.By 1330 most of England’s wool production was sold inmarkets, and about 1/3 of grain production was sold inmarkets (John Hatcher and Mark Bailey, Modelling theMiddle Ages p. 144).


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The Middle Ages






The Commercialization Model

I The situation was very different 500 years previously. Inthe wake of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire,money even stopped being used. Trade contracted, aswe saw from the shipwreck evidence.

I Significant that early commercial successes were inplaces practically exempt from traditional feudalinstitutions - Venice and the Netherlands.


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The Middle Ages






Market and Society

I What is the impact of the rise of the market on socialnorms? Could the spread of the market have created adifferent culture that in turn promoted modernization?

I People are not simply self-interested but sometimesbehave altruistically and comply with norms of behaviorthat cannot be explained simply by the anticipation thatif they do not follow these norms they will be punished.

I Some economists go further and argue that legalsystems are imperfect ways of contract enforcement andthat without such norms, it is impossible to have afunctioning market economy.


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The Middle Ages






Market and Society

I Very little evidence remains about the attitudes andbeliefs of common people during the late Middle Ages.To the extent we know anything, it is mostly about themost elite members of society.

I However, researchers have pointed to modern evidenceabout the relationship between markets and socialnorms to support the commercialization hypothesis.

I Consider the large comparative interdisciplinary projecton the “Foundations of Human Sociality.”

I This project has collected experimental data fromdifferent societies around the world in an attempt toexplain variation in behavior in simple games: theultimatum game and the dictator game.


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The Middle Ages






The Ultimatum and Dictator Games

I In the ultimatum game two players play each other.One is chosen as the proposer and proposes a split ofsome given amount of money - how much for him andhow much for the other player.

I After the proposer proposes, the other (the responder)says yes or no. If yes then the money is split accordingto the division proposed by the proposer. If theresponder says no then neither player gets anything.

I The dictator game is the same but without{reject;accept}.

I They also play a game where players are given moneyand can decide how much to contribute to a pool. Thepool is increased by 50% and then distributed equally tothe players. This creates a classic free rider problemwhere it would be advantageous for all the players tocontribute to the pool but each individual has theincentive to let others contribute to this public good.


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The Middle Ages






Locations of Study

Source: Henrich, Joe et al. (2004) “Overview and synthesis,”

in Foundations of Human Sociality, Oxford University Press. P. 13


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The Middle Ages






Characteristics of Participant Societies


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The Middle Ages






Ultimatum Game Offers


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The Middle Ages






Understanding Variation

I What explains different play in these games?

I They looked at various features of the societies such aspayoffs to cooperation. For instance Lamalera societydepends on whale hunting which requires a lot ofcooperation.

I Market integration – how often do people engage inmarket activity?

I Settlement size, sociopolitical complexity.

I Main conclusion: Market integration is positivelycorrelated with ‘pro-social behavior’, for example equalshares in the ultimatum game.


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The Middle Ages







The dependent variable in Table 2.5 is the group mean offer in the ultimatum game


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The Middle Ages








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The Middle Ages






The Commercialization Model: Brenner’s Attack

I After the Black Death there seems to have been acollapse in international trade, but this is exactly at thepoint where feudal institutions declined most rapidly.

I We saw the expansion of grain exports and marketexchange from Eastern Europe to Western Europespurred the Second Serfdom in the East. So commerceis perfectly consistent with feudal economic institutionsand labor coercion, indeed it may encourage it (i.e. thelater Atlantic slave trade).

I Brenner argued that there was no simple relationshipbetween expanding trade and the development ofinstitutions, particularly capitalism. In response to anincrease in commercialization, what happened toinstitutions depended on the ‘balance of class power’.


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The Middle Ages






The Demographic Model

I This proposes that it was the demographic collapse ofthe Black Death which undermined the institutions offeudalism and allowed the creation of capitalism.

I This was originally proposed by Postan, who critiquedthe Commercialization Model during the 1940s.

I Brenner’s attack on this is obvious: both Western andEastern Europe experienced the same demographicshock but while feudalism led to capitalism in the West,feudalism intensified in the East.

I We’ve already seen other examples like this.


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The Middle Ages






The Class-Conflict Model

I Brenner instead argues that class conflict was key.

I For instance, wages in England were falling and rentsrising 1050-1340. Changes in the Common Law in thelate 12th century led to the exclusion of the unfree fromthe protection of the Royal courts and large increase inthe extent of villeinage (about 3/5ths of all rural peoplewere unfree by the late 13th century England, Hatcherand Bailey, p. 99).

I Mixed evidence on the extent of conflict before BlackDeath. However, intense conflict in England after theBlack Death and leading up to the Peasants Revolt in1381 followed by rapid decline of feudal institutions veryconsistent with the notion that the emergence from theMiddle Ages was driven by conflict.


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The Middle Ages






Outline





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The Middle Ages






From Feudalism to Absolutism

I Following the collapse of feudalism in Western Europe,political power re-centralized.

I The decline of serfdom and feudalism weakened thelords relative to the king, who centralized power.

I In England this happened significantly during the TudorDynasty, which came to power in 1485 after a long civilwar called the Wars of the Roses. This was a conflictbetween the House of York and the House of Lancaster.It was elites fighting over who was going to extractrents from the population.

I Soon the nature of political conflict began to change inEngland.


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The Middle Ages






Construction of a Modern State in England

I The first two Tudor Kings Henry VII and Henry VIIImade fundamental changes to the state.

I Henry VIII via Thomas Cromwell, his chief ministerbetween 1532 and 1540, engineered what GeoffreyElton called the ‘Tudor Revolution of Government.

I Until the early 16th Century there was little distinctionbetween the King’s household and the executive,between the King’s resources and that of the state.Cromwell gave the King’s household specific welldefined tasks and separated key departments whichbecame nascent bureaucratic institutions. He formedthe key Privy Council, the members of which weremembers of a national institution, not personalcompanions of the reigning monarch.


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The Middle Ages






Dissolution of the Monasteries

I Henry VIII broke with the Roman Catholic Church andexpropriated the land of the Church.

I This made the state stronger and it had a fundamentalimpact on the social structure.


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The Middle Ages






Landownership in England

Taken from Christopher Clay (1984) Economic Expansion and Social Change: England 1500-1700, Volume 1. p. 143.


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The Middle Ages






English Social Hierarchy

The English Social Hierarchy in 1688 according to Gregory King, take from D.C. Coleman (1977) The Economy of England 1450-1750, OUP.


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The Middle Ages






Establishing a Monopoly of Violence

I The War of the Roses, a civil war between the House ofYork and the House of Lancaster, ended when KingRichard III was defeated and killed at the Battle ofBosworth 22 August, 1485.

I Henry Tudor was crowned Henry VII.

I Richard’s army: The Duke of Norfolk had around 3,000spearmen and archers on the right flank, protecting thecannon. Richard’s group, comprising 3,000 infantry,formed the centre. The Earl of Northumberland’s 4,000men guarded the left flank. The Stanleys 6,000 menwere on Dadlington Hill.

I What happened?


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The Middle Ages






The Defeat of Richard III


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The Middle Ages






The Implications

I Conclusion: Richard III did not have a monopoly ofviolence.

I In fact the War of the Roses came at the end of a longperiod of ‘bastard feudalism’ which had seen the centralstate become weaker while the armed lords becamemore powerful.

“Government at the center relinquished thereins, and the institutions of law and order fellunder the sway of overly-powerful individuals witharmed men at their backs. The famous evils of thistime were all the result of this. Livery (theequipping of armed retainers with their lords’uniform and badge to signify their sole allegiance),maintenance (the lord’s support for his followers incourts of law) . . . embracery (the corruption andintimidation of judges).” (Elton (1991, p. 6)


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The Middle Ages






Establishing the Monopoly

I The project to eliminate ‘liveried retainers’ was notnew. Henry IV and Edward IV had passed legislation torestrict the distribution of livery and the retaining offollowers but these measures were not enforced.

I Henry VII’s strategy was more subtle. Rather thaninitially banning livery, a statue of 1504 stated that ithad to be licensed by the king. Henry wanted to firstgain control over armed retainers, indeed he had reliedon them to keep order and his throne early in his reign.

I Nevertheless, he set a path towards a much strongermonopoly on violence and by 1558 liveried retainerswere incorporated into the local militias under thecontrol of the centrally appointed lord lieutenants.

I This was a critical phase in the establishment of amonopoly of violence by the central state.


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The Middle Ages






Outline





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The Middle Ages






Elsewhere in the World: Sub-Saharan Africa

I Plenty coming on this later in the course...


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The Middle Ages






Elsewhere in the World: China

I Mokyr (1990, Chapter 9) lists many of the ways inwhich China was more technologically advanced thanEurope.

I Paper and paper money (1,000 years before Europe),printing, gunpowder were all invented first in China.The compass was invented in 960AD (In Europe it wasnot until about 1300 that a proper compass emerged).Blast furnaces and casting of iron dates to 200BC butarrived in Europe in the late 14th century. The spinningwheel arrived at about the same time in the 13thcentury.


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The Middle Ages






So Sung Water Clock from 1086 AD

Su Sung water clock from 1086AD

“Chinese water clocks ... far exceeded in mechanical complexity, mastery of materialsAnd mechanism, and accuracy of measurements anything that Europe had to offers circa 1100AD”Joel Mokyr (1990, p. 215).


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The Middle Ages






Chinese Ships

A treasure ship of Zheng He was several times larger than Christopher Columbus's

Santa María.


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The Middle Ages






Chinese Map Making

The Kangnido map was made in Korea from Chinese source material in 1402


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The Middle Ages






Chinese Map Making

Kangnido map details

Ancient and Medieval Growth - Brad DeLong's …...Ancient and Medieval Growth Melissa Dell Theories...

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Transcript of Ancient and Medieval Growth - Brad DeLong's …...Ancient and Medieval Growth Melissa Dell Theories...