Analyzing Industry Employment Characteristics

Presented by

Greg Weeks, Ph.D.

Washington State Employment Security Department

DirectorLabor Market and Economic Analysis

April 10, 2008Doubletree Guest Suites Hotel

Phoenix, AZ

Sources of Industry Information Available from LMI Shops

• QCEW

• LEHD

• Industry Projections

• Staffing Patterns

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(QCEW)

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

• Funded by BLS.• There is a QCEW program in every state.• The data is collected and published at the

national level by BLS.

QCEW History

• QCEW began as result of Social Security Act of 1935

• Officially started in 1938 with the inception of the national UI system

• Collected data to determine if UI programs were in compliance with the Act

QCEW History (cont)

• In 1972 technical responsibility transferred to BLS.

• During the 1980’s BLS launched several projects to improve the quality of the data. Including adding new data elements and multiple worksite locations.

Covered vs Non-covered Employment

• What isn’t covered/included:– Sole proprietors– Domestics under $1000 per quarter– Family farms under $20,000 quarterly payroll– Exempt corporate offices– College work-study students– Church employees– Self employed Independent Contractors– Certain commissioned salespeople– Active Military– Railroad Employees

Covered vs. Non-covered (cont)

• According to the BLS website, “QCEW, best describes this program, as we are a virtual census of employment in the United States, covering 99.7% of wage and salary civilian employment.”

UI Tax Rate & Actuarial Analysis

UI-Covered Employment

Local Area Unemployment

Personal Income (BEA)

Gross Domestic Product (BEA)

Economic Forecasting

Current Employment Statistics

Occupational Employment Statistics

Job Creation/Destruction•Size Class Dynamics•Business Survival Rates

Geocoded Establishments

Occupational Employment Statistics

Occupational Safety and Health Statistics

Current Employment Statistics

National Compensation Survey

Industrial Price Program

Occupational Safety and Health Statistics

Programmatic Uses

Benchmarking(Employment Base)

General Economic Uses

Quarterly Census of Employment &

Wage Data

Analytical Uses Sampling

Mass Layoff Statistics

State Revenue Projections

Jobs Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

Quarterly Press Releases, Annual Employment and Wages

Local Economic Development Indicators

• Clusters Analysis• Shift Share• Industry Diversity Indexes• Location Quotients

Federal Funds Allocation$175 Billion

(HUD, USDA, HCFA/CHIP)

Minimum Wage Studies

Uses Of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Data

Local Economic Impact Response Planning

Local Government Services Planning

Interagency Data Uses• Improve CPS After 2000 Census• LEHD• Industry Code Sharing

Local Transportation Planning

QCEW is available through state LMI websites, BLS website, and through the

state LMI economic analysts

• Industry detail• Number of companies, employment, wages• Historic benchmark• County, State, national• Ability to do custom geographies

QCEW will reveal:

• Industry distribution for an area– Summary and details

• Employment trends over time

• Comparisons between industry /area

• Rates of change

• Employment by size of company

• Small area analysis

Industry distribution

Employment over time

Comparisons Specialty Trade Contractors ShareHeavy and Civil Engineering Share

Construction of Buildings Share

05009590Source: Haver Analytics

4.50

3.75

3.00

2.25

1.50

0.75

0.00

4.50

3.75

3.00

2.25

1.50

0.75

0.00

Rates of change

Total Nonfarm: WashingtonMonthly Change, Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands

Total Nonfarm: Washington6-Month Average Change, Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands

07060504

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

-5000

-10000

Employment by size

Small area analysis

QCEW will

• Industry distribution for an area– Summary and details

• Employment trends over time

• Comparisons between industry /area

• Rates of change

• Employment by size of company

• Small area analysis

QCEW program provides baseline industry data, but LED goes several steps further

• The LED program is a partnership between the member states (soon to be all but MA) and the Census Bureau.

• States contribute UI wage files and the QCEW data.• Census contributes age and gender information and a LOT of data

processing and data analysis.• The program returns a lot of easily accessible data and state

specific databases, which we will summarize in a few minutes.• The data returned to the states are not microdata.• The LED data is “fuzzed” so that detailed data can be presented for

very small geographies and detailed industry level (up to 4-digit).• Hallmarks of the program include: shared governance (Census

Bureau staff plus elected state representatives); a Culture of Innovation;

LMI Shops have access to detailed LED databases

. tab yearqtr if sex == 0 & agegrp == 0 & county == 0 & naics == "31-33", summa> rize (emp)

| Summary of Emp yearqtr | Mean Std. Dev. Freq.------------+------------------------------------ 19902 | 336808 0 1 19903 | 343100 0 1 19904 | 340617 0 1 19911 | 319957 0 1 19912 | 320757 0 1 19913 | 329689 0 1 19914 | 330409 0 1 19921 | 313766 0 1 19922 | 318013 0 1 19923 | 322543 0 1 19924 | 320413 0 1 19931 | 307187 0 1 19932 | 313342 0 1 19933 | 318629 0 1 19934 | 317335 0 1 19941 | 302381 0 1 19942 | 307925 0 1 19943 | 316260 0 1 19944 | 319463 0 1 19951 | 307931 0 1 19952 | 313107 0 1 19953 | 314671 0 1 19954 | 298291 0 1 19961 | 305734 0 1 19962 | 313205 0 1 19963 | 325220 0 1 19964 | 333329 0 1 19971 | 325441 0 1 19972 | 338960 0 1 19973 | 354261 0 1 19974 | 356826 0 1 19981 | 348432 0 1 19982 | 352670 0 1 19983 | 359502 0 1 19984 | 356134 0 1 19991 | 341338 0 1 19992 | 340996 0 1 19993 | 343972 0 1 19994 | 341028 0 1 20001 | 327127 0 1 20002 | 327209 0 1 20003 | 330008 0 1 20004 | 328245 0 1 20011 | 305568 0 1 20012 | 303081 0 1 20013 | 306430 0 1 20014 | 296730 0 1 20021 | 275456 0 1 20022 | 277000 0 1 20023 | 281247 0 1 20024 | 274047 0 1 20031 | 263161 0 1

Percent over 54 for all workers and women, information industry, Washington State

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

1990

2

1990

4

1991

2

1991

4

1992

2

1992

4

1993

2

1993

4

1994

2

1994

4

1995

2

1995

4

1996

2

1996

4

1997

2

1997

4

1998

2

1998

4

1999

2

1999

4

2000

2

2000

4

2001

2

2001

4

2002

2

2002

4

2003

2

2003

4

2004

2

2004

4

2005

2

2005

4

2006

2

2006

4

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

Percent Older

Percent Older Female

Percent Female

Age Distribution Over Time

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

14-18

19-21

22-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-99

Other Data Sources

• Industry Projections

• UI Claims

• Occupations within Industry

• Current Employment Statistics

In Summary

• QCEW and LEHD lead the way– Detailed industry level information– Multiple characteristics

• Industry, size, age, gender

– Trend and Compare– County based plus..

• Other

THANK YOU!

Greg Weeks

(360) 438-4804

gweeks@esd.wa.gov