ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in Middle East / Africa docu… · ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in...

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ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in Middle East / Africa Denis Cochet 10 March 2008

Transcript of ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in Middle East / Africa docu… · ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in...

ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAIPower in Middle East / Africa

Denis Cochet

10 March 2008

P 2

Agenda

Power market in Middle East and Africa- Market and key market drivers- Competition- Key customers- Installed base mix

Page 3

Alstom presence by sub-region Page 14

Alstom strategy Page 27

P 3

Growing weight of MEA in power market

New PP Plant Market %(Past 5 years)

Installed Base %

3,800 GW 155 GW p.a

14%

3%

1%

6%

27%

7%

8%21%

13%

EuropeRussia & CISMEANAMLAMAsiaIndiaOceaniaChina

49%6%

1%

3%

7%

10%1%14%

9%

Notes: Large GTs, Large Conv STs, ST CC, Nuclear, Hydro, Wind

P 4

Middle East & Africa key market drivers

Power investment cycles have returned to very active phase

• GDP and demographic growth

• Growing peak demand driven by rising living standards and air conditioning consumption

• Huge fuel availability (oil, gas, hydro, uranium and coal)

• Financial capabilities thanks to high oil & gas revenues

• Industry development due to the low cost of both energy (gas below 1.25 $/Mbtu) and of manpower

• Water needs lead to desalination investment

P 5

Middle East & Africa New plant order- GW year

Investment rush leading to growing demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'02-06 07e-09f

Hydro

Nuclear

Steam

Gas Turbine Plants

OutlookGW/y

Top Markets(80% of total)

South AfricaUAESaudi ArabiaIranNigeriaQatarAlgeriaEgyptKuwaitBahrainMorocco

P 6

Alstom market share in MEA

Growing Share

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2004-2006 2007e

Others

ALSTOM

Notes: Includes Large GTs, Large Conv STs, ST CC, Nuclear, Hydro

P 7

Competition

Alstom, the only global partner, regionally and technologically

GE• Predominant player in GT market• Strong service presence in the Gulf • Limited offer in steam• Equipment strategy

Siemens• Gas: player in GT market• Steam: limited. No obvious boiler partner

P 8

Competition

Hitachi• Steam: focus on coal boiler in RSA

MHI• Focus only on Middle East on Gas and steam oil

Chinese (Harbin, Dongfang, Shanghai) • Active only in Sub-Saharan Africa in Hydro

P 9

GW per key customer: Investment plan 2007/2011

0 5 10 15 20

ESKOM

SEC

DEWA

EEHC

IWPP/ADWEA

SONELGAZ

TAVANIR

Emal (Dub al/Mub adala)

Total planned GW over 2007-2011 x Probability

P 10

Purchasing criteria by key customers

Key Customers Key Purchasing Criteria

Utilities

Aluminum

IWPP & IPP

Industrial

Oil & Gas

• Price

• Delivery time

• Turnkey

• Partnership (IWPP & IPP)

• Local content (Eskom)

• Through EPCM (Aluminum)

• Teaming with developer (IWPP)

• After sales services

P 11

Middle East & Africa installed capacity

0 5 10 15

1

5

9

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

41

45

49

2006GW

1996

1986

1976

AgeYear

1966

171

12

33

2

62

AlstomFleet

Other OEMs

Total Installed Base280 GW

Nuclear PlantsSteam Plants

GT PlantsHydro Plants

Source:ALSTOM & UDI

Aging Fleet to Drive Retrofit Opportunities

Alstom in ~40 % of Installed Base

P 12

Middle East & Africa power installed base mix

Middle East 160 GW

North Africa 45 GW

Sub-Saharan Africa30 GW

Nuclear PlantsSteam Coal Plants

GT PlantsHydro Plants

South Africa 45 GW

Diversified mix calling for balanced portfolio offering

Steam Oil Plants

P 13

Agenda

Power market in Middle East and Africa- Market and key market drivers- Competition- Key customers- Installed base mix

Page 3

Alstom presence by sub-region Page 14

Alstom strategy Page 27

P 14

Northern Africa

Market

• Gas Market

• Hydro in Morocco

• Nuclear opportunities?

Main customers

• ONE (Morocco), Sonelgaz (Algeria), Gecol (Libya), STEG (Tunisia)

Alstom key technology advantages

• GT26, GT13E2, EPC capabilities, Pump Storage

P 15

Northern Africa – key references

Ain Beni Mathar (Morocco, ABENER/ONE)2 x 172 MW – GT13E2Award date: March 07Value: 90 MEuro

Relizane (Algeria, Sonelgaz)3 x 170 MW – GT13E2Award date: May 07Value: 450 MEuro

Terga (Algeria, Sonelgaz)3 x 400 MW – GT26Award date: November 07Value: 800 MEuro

Alstom Power footprint

P 16

Southern Africa

Market• Country faces power shortage: 20 years without any investment• Necessity to add capacity to fuel a fast growing economy and to ensure

access to power for the population• All energy sources needed• Growing retrofit market

Main customers

• Eskom (80 years of partnership with Alstom)

Alstom key technology advantages

• Largest portfolio (coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, wind), long and outstanding presence in the country

P 17

Southern Africa – key references

All fuels will remain key in the future

Medupi (South Africa, Eskom)6 x 800 MW – CoalAward date: September 07Value: 1,350 MEuro

Arnot 1-6 (South Africa,Eskom)6 x 370 MW – RetrofitAward date: August 06Value: 85 MEuro

Bravo (South Africa, Eskom)6 x 800 MW – CoalAward date: February 08Value: 1,350 MEuro

Alstom Power footprint

P 18

Major recent achievements - Arnot

1st key integrated retrofit in Africa

• Customer: Eskom

• Additional 300 MW across the power plant (from 2,100 to 2,400 MW)

• Scope: boiler + steam turbine retrofit

• Improved performance guaranteed, thanks to Plant Integrator concept• Reduced maintenance requirements • Optimisation of steam cycle parameters • Increased outage intervals

P 19

Major recent achievements – Medupi and Bravo

Biggest coal-fired power plants in Africa

• Customer: Eskom• Coal-fired power plant:

− 6 x 800 MW – Medupi− 6 x 800 MW – Bravo

• Scope: Turnkey turbine islands• Operational 2011 - 2014

• Strengthen Alstom leadership in South Africa

P 20

Middle East

Market• Gas market• Additional oil-fired plant market in Saudi Arabia• 60Hz market in Saudi Arabia• Growing interest for Carbon Capture and Storage solutions

Main customers

• Dewa, ADWEA, Dubal, Saudi Electric Co

Alstom key technology advantages• EPC capabilities , GT26, GT13E2, ST and boiler for steam oil

P 21

Middle East – key references

Turnkey capabilities make the difference

Dubal CCPP 22 and GTX extention(UAE, Dubal)450 MW + 1 x 150 MW – 3 GT13E2Award date: May 07Value: 125 MEuro

Fujairah II (UAE, National Power)1 x 2,000 MW – GT26Award date: August 07Value: 1,000 MEuro

Jebel Ali M (UAE, Doosan)3 x 220 MW – ST and GenAward date: April 07Value: 65 MEuro

Taweelah Smelter (UAE, EmiratesAluminum)WFGDAward date: May 07Value: 115 MEuro

Al-Zhour (Kuwait, Al Ghanm)5 x 180 MW – GT13E2Award date: April 07Value: 135 MEuro

Shoiaba (Saudi Arabia, SaudiElectric Co)11 x 400 MW – Steam-oilAward date: 2000-2005Value: 3,300MEuro

Alstom Power footprint

P 22

Major recent achievements - Fujairah

Will support fast growing need for potable water and electricity

• Customer: International Power PLC/Marubeni

• Power and desalination plant

• Gas-fired power plant: 2,000 MW and 500,000 m3 /day of water

• Scope: Turnkey power plant – 5 GT26

• Operational 2010

• 1st time GT26 technology was sold in the region• 1st GT 26 for desalination plant

P 23

Major recent achievements – Shoaiba

Largest oil-fired power plant world-wide

• Customer: Saudi Electricity Company

• Conventional steam – oil: 11 x 400 MW

• Scope: turnkey power plant and service contract

• Operational 2008

• Integrated design, procurement, engineering key components and construction• Lower operating costs

P 24

Sub-Saharan Africa

Market

• Opportunistic approach

• Only Hydro market and small Gas market in Nigeria (but safety issue)

• Chinese and Indian financing available

Main customers

• ZESCO (Zambia), NIPP (Nigeria), BEL (Uganda)

Alstom key technology advantages• Tackle the hydro market with the support of our Tianjin (China) and Baroda

(India) units

P 25

Sub-Saharan Africa – key references

Bujagali (Uganda, Ind. Promotion)Complete BOP & Equip – 5 x 51 MWAward date: July 07Value: 75 MEuro

Tema (Ghana, Ghana Ministry)2 x 114 MW – GT11N2Award date: June 07Value: 55 MEuro

Alstom Power footprint

P 26

Agenda

Power market in Middle East and Africa- Market and key market drivers- Competition- Key customers- Installed base mix

Page 3

Alstom presence by sub-region Page 14

Alstom strategy Page 27

P 27

Alstom Power Systems’ strategy

Keep our regional leadershipGas

• Develop our market share on turnkey gas plants based on GT26 and GT 13E2.

• Develop presence in Desalination through partnerships.

• No investment in manufacturing facilities

• Reinforce local presence through tendering and front office capabilities (50 people in UAE)

• Follow new investments in Aluminium smelters

Steam-Oil

• Capitalise on our success on Steam Oil in Saudi Arabia

P 28

Alstom Power Systems’ strategy

Hydro

• Maintain leadership position in hydro using our experience and our capabilities of Tianjin and Baroda

Coal

• Following our recent successes, increase our presence in South Africa in tendering, engineering, project management and sourcing (120 people)

• Develop the growing retrofit market

Nuclear

• Win South Africa programme and watch development in North Africa and Gulf

Wind

• Introduce wind in Morocco

P 29

Alstom‘s leadership in Middle East and Africa

2nd region in terms of order intake in 2007/08 and 2008/09 with a share of 20 to 25%

• Strong position across the whole region and all technologies

• Maintain long term relationship with customers (Eskom, Sonelgaz, ONE, Gecol, EDM, ADWEA, Dubal, Emal, Alba, ….)

• Benefit from EPC capabilities, with components imported from our units in Europe and Asia

• Selective project approach where Alstom can provide added value to its customers

www.alstom.com