ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in Middle East / Africa docu… · ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in...
Transcript of ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in Middle East / Africa docu… · ANALYST DAYS IN DUBAI Power in...
P 2
Agenda
Power market in Middle East and Africa- Market and key market drivers- Competition- Key customers- Installed base mix
Page 3
Alstom presence by sub-region Page 14
Alstom strategy Page 27
P 3
Growing weight of MEA in power market
New PP Plant Market %(Past 5 years)
Installed Base %
3,800 GW 155 GW p.a
14%
3%
1%
6%
27%
7%
8%21%
13%
EuropeRussia & CISMEANAMLAMAsiaIndiaOceaniaChina
49%6%
1%
3%
7%
10%1%14%
9%
Notes: Large GTs, Large Conv STs, ST CC, Nuclear, Hydro, Wind
P 4
Middle East & Africa key market drivers
Power investment cycles have returned to very active phase
• GDP and demographic growth
• Growing peak demand driven by rising living standards and air conditioning consumption
• Huge fuel availability (oil, gas, hydro, uranium and coal)
• Financial capabilities thanks to high oil & gas revenues
• Industry development due to the low cost of both energy (gas below 1.25 $/Mbtu) and of manpower
• Water needs lead to desalination investment
P 5
Middle East & Africa New plant order- GW year
Investment rush leading to growing demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
'02-06 07e-09f
Hydro
Nuclear
Steam
Gas Turbine Plants
OutlookGW/y
Top Markets(80% of total)
South AfricaUAESaudi ArabiaIranNigeriaQatarAlgeriaEgyptKuwaitBahrainMorocco
P 6
Alstom market share in MEA
Growing Share
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2004-2006 2007e
Others
ALSTOM
Notes: Includes Large GTs, Large Conv STs, ST CC, Nuclear, Hydro
P 7
Competition
Alstom, the only global partner, regionally and technologically
GE• Predominant player in GT market• Strong service presence in the Gulf • Limited offer in steam• Equipment strategy
Siemens• Gas: player in GT market• Steam: limited. No obvious boiler partner
P 8
Competition
Hitachi• Steam: focus on coal boiler in RSA
MHI• Focus only on Middle East on Gas and steam oil
Chinese (Harbin, Dongfang, Shanghai) • Active only in Sub-Saharan Africa in Hydro
P 9
GW per key customer: Investment plan 2007/2011
0 5 10 15 20
ESKOM
SEC
DEWA
EEHC
IWPP/ADWEA
SONELGAZ
TAVANIR
Emal (Dub al/Mub adala)
Total planned GW over 2007-2011 x Probability
P 10
Purchasing criteria by key customers
Key Customers Key Purchasing Criteria
Utilities
Aluminum
IWPP & IPP
Industrial
Oil & Gas
• Price
• Delivery time
• Turnkey
• Partnership (IWPP & IPP)
• Local content (Eskom)
• Through EPCM (Aluminum)
• Teaming with developer (IWPP)
• After sales services
P 11
Middle East & Africa installed capacity
0 5 10 15
1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
2006GW
1996
1986
1976
AgeYear
1966
171
12
33
2
62
AlstomFleet
Other OEMs
Total Installed Base280 GW
Nuclear PlantsSteam Plants
GT PlantsHydro Plants
Source:ALSTOM & UDI
Aging Fleet to Drive Retrofit Opportunities
Alstom in ~40 % of Installed Base
P 12
Middle East & Africa power installed base mix
Middle East 160 GW
North Africa 45 GW
Sub-Saharan Africa30 GW
Nuclear PlantsSteam Coal Plants
GT PlantsHydro Plants
South Africa 45 GW
Diversified mix calling for balanced portfolio offering
Steam Oil Plants
P 13
Agenda
Power market in Middle East and Africa- Market and key market drivers- Competition- Key customers- Installed base mix
Page 3
Alstom presence by sub-region Page 14
Alstom strategy Page 27
P 14
Northern Africa
Market
• Gas Market
• Hydro in Morocco
• Nuclear opportunities?
Main customers
• ONE (Morocco), Sonelgaz (Algeria), Gecol (Libya), STEG (Tunisia)
Alstom key technology advantages
• GT26, GT13E2, EPC capabilities, Pump Storage
P 15
Northern Africa – key references
Ain Beni Mathar (Morocco, ABENER/ONE)2 x 172 MW – GT13E2Award date: March 07Value: 90 MEuro
Relizane (Algeria, Sonelgaz)3 x 170 MW – GT13E2Award date: May 07Value: 450 MEuro
Terga (Algeria, Sonelgaz)3 x 400 MW – GT26Award date: November 07Value: 800 MEuro
Alstom Power footprint
P 16
Southern Africa
Market• Country faces power shortage: 20 years without any investment• Necessity to add capacity to fuel a fast growing economy and to ensure
access to power for the population• All energy sources needed• Growing retrofit market
Main customers
• Eskom (80 years of partnership with Alstom)
Alstom key technology advantages
• Largest portfolio (coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, wind), long and outstanding presence in the country
P 17
Southern Africa – key references
All fuels will remain key in the future
Medupi (South Africa, Eskom)6 x 800 MW – CoalAward date: September 07Value: 1,350 MEuro
Arnot 1-6 (South Africa,Eskom)6 x 370 MW – RetrofitAward date: August 06Value: 85 MEuro
Bravo (South Africa, Eskom)6 x 800 MW – CoalAward date: February 08Value: 1,350 MEuro
Alstom Power footprint
P 18
Major recent achievements - Arnot
1st key integrated retrofit in Africa
• Customer: Eskom
• Additional 300 MW across the power plant (from 2,100 to 2,400 MW)
• Scope: boiler + steam turbine retrofit
• Improved performance guaranteed, thanks to Plant Integrator concept• Reduced maintenance requirements • Optimisation of steam cycle parameters • Increased outage intervals
P 19
Major recent achievements – Medupi and Bravo
Biggest coal-fired power plants in Africa
• Customer: Eskom• Coal-fired power plant:
− 6 x 800 MW – Medupi− 6 x 800 MW – Bravo
• Scope: Turnkey turbine islands• Operational 2011 - 2014
• Strengthen Alstom leadership in South Africa
P 20
Middle East
Market• Gas market• Additional oil-fired plant market in Saudi Arabia• 60Hz market in Saudi Arabia• Growing interest for Carbon Capture and Storage solutions
Main customers
• Dewa, ADWEA, Dubal, Saudi Electric Co
Alstom key technology advantages• EPC capabilities , GT26, GT13E2, ST and boiler for steam oil
P 21
Middle East – key references
Turnkey capabilities make the difference
Dubal CCPP 22 and GTX extention(UAE, Dubal)450 MW + 1 x 150 MW – 3 GT13E2Award date: May 07Value: 125 MEuro
Fujairah II (UAE, National Power)1 x 2,000 MW – GT26Award date: August 07Value: 1,000 MEuro
Jebel Ali M (UAE, Doosan)3 x 220 MW – ST and GenAward date: April 07Value: 65 MEuro
Taweelah Smelter (UAE, EmiratesAluminum)WFGDAward date: May 07Value: 115 MEuro
Al-Zhour (Kuwait, Al Ghanm)5 x 180 MW – GT13E2Award date: April 07Value: 135 MEuro
Shoiaba (Saudi Arabia, SaudiElectric Co)11 x 400 MW – Steam-oilAward date: 2000-2005Value: 3,300MEuro
Alstom Power footprint
P 22
Major recent achievements - Fujairah
Will support fast growing need for potable water and electricity
• Customer: International Power PLC/Marubeni
• Power and desalination plant
• Gas-fired power plant: 2,000 MW and 500,000 m3 /day of water
• Scope: Turnkey power plant – 5 GT26
• Operational 2010
• 1st time GT26 technology was sold in the region• 1st GT 26 for desalination plant
P 23
Major recent achievements – Shoaiba
Largest oil-fired power plant world-wide
• Customer: Saudi Electricity Company
• Conventional steam – oil: 11 x 400 MW
• Scope: turnkey power plant and service contract
• Operational 2008
• Integrated design, procurement, engineering key components and construction• Lower operating costs
P 24
Sub-Saharan Africa
Market
• Opportunistic approach
• Only Hydro market and small Gas market in Nigeria (but safety issue)
• Chinese and Indian financing available
Main customers
• ZESCO (Zambia), NIPP (Nigeria), BEL (Uganda)
Alstom key technology advantages• Tackle the hydro market with the support of our Tianjin (China) and Baroda
(India) units
P 25
Sub-Saharan Africa – key references
Bujagali (Uganda, Ind. Promotion)Complete BOP & Equip – 5 x 51 MWAward date: July 07Value: 75 MEuro
Tema (Ghana, Ghana Ministry)2 x 114 MW – GT11N2Award date: June 07Value: 55 MEuro
Alstom Power footprint
P 26
Agenda
Power market in Middle East and Africa- Market and key market drivers- Competition- Key customers- Installed base mix
Page 3
Alstom presence by sub-region Page 14
Alstom strategy Page 27
P 27
Alstom Power Systems’ strategy
Keep our regional leadershipGas
• Develop our market share on turnkey gas plants based on GT26 and GT 13E2.
• Develop presence in Desalination through partnerships.
• No investment in manufacturing facilities
• Reinforce local presence through tendering and front office capabilities (50 people in UAE)
• Follow new investments in Aluminium smelters
Steam-Oil
• Capitalise on our success on Steam Oil in Saudi Arabia
P 28
Alstom Power Systems’ strategy
Hydro
• Maintain leadership position in hydro using our experience and our capabilities of Tianjin and Baroda
Coal
• Following our recent successes, increase our presence in South Africa in tendering, engineering, project management and sourcing (120 people)
• Develop the growing retrofit market
Nuclear
• Win South Africa programme and watch development in North Africa and Gulf
Wind
• Introduce wind in Morocco
P 29
Alstom‘s leadership in Middle East and Africa
2nd region in terms of order intake in 2007/08 and 2008/09 with a share of 20 to 25%
• Strong position across the whole region and all technologies
• Maintain long term relationship with customers (Eskom, Sonelgaz, ONE, Gecol, EDM, ADWEA, Dubal, Emal, Alba, ….)
• Benefit from EPC capabilities, with components imported from our units in Europe and Asia
• Selective project approach where Alstom can provide added value to its customers