ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

23
ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020 MONDAY 16 NOVEMBER, 2020 @ 14.30 HOURS

Transcript of ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

Page 1: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF

YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

MONDAY 16 NOVEMBER, 2020

@ 14.30 HOURS

Page 2: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

1. WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION

2. TRADING REVIEW – P GOWERO

3. FINANCIALS – M VALELA

4. DISCUSSION/QUESTIONS

AGENDA

Page 3: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

TRADING ENVIRONMENT

1. Pervasive impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic in Quarter 1:

Lockdowns and restrictions on economic and social activities.

Closure of on-premise consumption channels.

Frequent price adjustments driven by inflation and exchange rate depreciation.

Low disposable incomes - limited economic activity.

Ban on alcohol sales in South Africa.

2. Easing of conditions in Quarter 2:

Relaxation of lockdowns.

Increase in Domestic Nostro Sales.

Some adjustments by business and persons to living with Covid-19 pandemic.

Page 4: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

TRADING ENVIRONMENT (continued)

3. Stable but uncertain economic environment:

Stabilising exchange rate (both official and parallel rates) post introduction of auction

system.

Improved access to foreign currency through Domestic Nostro Sales.

High inflation and distorted market prices.

Disruptions to payment systems due to limitations of mobile digital payments platforms.

Tight liquidity (both local currency and forex).

4. Other factors:

Drought induced cereals shortages – imports of maize and sorghum grain.

Pressure on health delivery system.

Page 5: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

ADAPTING OUR ROUTE TO CONSUMER FOR EFFECTS OF COVID-19

Page 6: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

VOLUME PERFORMANCE SUMMARY

Category Actual Volume 000hl

% Change on

Prior Year

1. BEVERAGES (HLS 000) F21 F20

Lager Beer

1.1 Clear Beer 556 3

Sorghum Beer

1.2 Sorghum Beer - Zimbabwe 1 089 (31)

1.3 Sorghum Beer -Zambia 497 8

1.4 Sorghum Beer -South Africa 252 (76)

Soft Drinks

1.5 Sparkling Beverages 300 22

1.6 Alternative Beverages 20 (57)

Total Delta Beverages 2 714 (31)

Wines and Spirits

1.7 African Distillers 38 15

Total excluding Associates 2 752 (30)

Associates

1.8 Schweppes Zimbabwe Limited 268 (18)

Total Beverages incl Associates 3 020 (29)

2. Malt Tonnage 9 808 (2)

Page 7: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

F21 VOLUME BY QUARTER

178

91

425

378

209

664

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Lager SBs Sorghum

Qtr1 Qtr2

Page 8: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

LAGER BEER

• Demand affected by closure of outlets and reduced economic activity under

Covid-19 restrictions.

• Recovery trend since June 2020, post relaxation of restrictions and easing of

mono-currency trading.

• Dominance of returnable packs; skewed towards quarts and mainstream

brands.

• Supporting volume recovery by injecting new glass bottles and keen pricing.

• Barley supply adequate – some room for malt exports

Page 9: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

LAGER BEER 5 YEAR VOLUME PERFOMANCE - FIRST HALF

608

676

1 040

539 556

684

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

F17 F18 F19 F20 F21 Average

(5 Year)

Hls'000

Page 10: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

TRADING REVIEW - LAGER BEER MIX

HLs ‘000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

F21 F20

4%8%

78% 67%

18%25%

Premium

Mainstream

Economy

Page 11: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

SORGHUM BEER

Zimbabwe (Down 31%)

• Dampened demand due to Covid-19 restrictions - limited access to key trade channels and rural markets.

• Higher cost of imported raw materials and packaging with resultant price increases.

• Lower contribution of returnable Scud pack on fears of product expiring during limited trading hours.

Zambia (Up 8%)

• Nascent volume recovery driven by preference for Chibuku Super under Covid-19 lockdown conditions.

• Non-enforcement of bans on illegal alcohol forms resulting in uneven playing field with unlicenced

operators who don’t pay taxes.

• Continued trading losses putting pressure on working capital.

South Africa (Down 76%)

• Impact of ban on alcohol hence no trading in Quarter 1.

• Limited trading since July 2020 – no trading Friday to Sunday.

• Low disposable incomes due to constrained economic activity.

Page 12: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

SORGHUM ZIMBABWE BEER 5 YEAR VOLUME PERFORMANCE - HALF YEAR

1 903

1 8261 867

1 587

1 089

1 654

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

F17 F18 F19 F20 F21 Average

(5 Year)

Hls'000

Page 13: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

TRADING REVIEW - SORGHUM BEER (ZIMBABWE) MIX

HLs ‘000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

F21 F20

20%29%

80%71%

Chibuku

Super

Chibuku

Page 14: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

SPARKLING BEVERAGES

• Recovery of both volume and market share driven by competitive pricing and focused market

execution.

• Volume recovery driven by consistent product supply due to improved access to foreign currency

for key imports.

• Current route to market and channels favour one-way packs which are preferred

by modern trade.

• The without sugar offerings are gaining momentum on market acceptance.

• To benefit from expansion of territory to Manicaland in fourth quarter.

Page 15: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

SPARKLING BEVERAGES 5 YEAR VOLUME HALF YEAR PERFORMANCE

588 586 602

245

300

464

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

F17 F18 F19 F20 F21 Average

(5 Year)

Hls’000

Page 16: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

TRADING REVIEW- SPARKLING BEVERAGES MIX

HLs ‘000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

F21 F20

25%

63%

75%

37%

Convenience

pack

RGB

Page 17: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

AFRICAN DISTILLERS VOLUME PERFORMANCE

Actual Volume

000litres

% Change on

Prior Year

1. BEVERAGES (Litres 000)

1.1 Spirits 22 861 25

1.2 Wines 1 468 (37)

1.3 Ciders 13 607 10

Total 37 936 15

• Volume growth driven by good product supply.

• Successful launch of new product innovations that have received encouraging market acceptance.

Page 18: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

UPDATE ON ASSOCIATES

1. Schweppes Zimbabwe Limited

• Beverages division constrained by imported supplies and value chain cost

pressure.

• Witnessed slow demand under lockdown conditions.

• Rolling out new flavours under the Minute Maid brand.

• Improved juicing fruit intake for processing divisions.

2. Nampak Zimbabwe

• Entities allowed to operate during Covid-19 lockdowns.

• Ongoing efforts to increase exports of plastic packaging into the region.

• All business units operating profitably inspite of reduced volumes.

Page 19: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Inflation Adjusted Information Historical Cost Information

Revenue

Increased by 11% to ZWL 12,94

billion Increased by 910% to ZWL 10,62 billion

Operating Income

Increased by 15% to ZWL 4,03

billion Increased by 955% to ZWL 3,47 billion

Dividend per share

Interim dividend declared –

ZWL 45,00 cents

Interim dividend declared – ZWL 45,00 cents

Page 20: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

SEGMENT REVENUE – HISTORICAL COST

September 2020 September 2019

Revenue

Revenue

Contri. % Revenue

Revenue

Contri. %

% to

Prior Year

Lager Beer 4 242 692 40 381 121 36 1 013

Sparkling Beverages 1 199 969 11 125 929 12 853

Sorghum Business 4 301 093 41 462 191 44 831

Wines and Spirits 847 517 8 80 267 8 956

Total Reportable Segments 10 591 271 100 1 049 508 100 909

All other segments 32 987 - 2 183 - 1 411

Total Revenue 10 624 258 100 1 051 691 100 910

Page 21: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURE

September 2020 March 2020

Legacy Debts 47 752 63 800

• Legacy debts covered by RBZ arrangements.

• UNB - deferred purchase consideration of R423 million.

• Generating adequate foreign exchange from domestic sales to cover legacy debt

payments and import requirements.

Page 22: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020

OUTLOOK

• Global resurgence of Covid-19 infections raises risks and uncertainty about

the trading conditions in the near term.

• Re-modelling of outlets /route–to–market to align with new reality of living

with Covid-19.

• Hoping for policy stability to anchor multi currency trading and exchange

rate stability.

• Expansion of Coca-Cola franchise to Manicaland.

• Manage import logistics challenges arising from congested borders.

Page 23: ANALYST BRIEFING FOR HALF YEAR ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020