Analysis of Ukraine’s EconomyAnalysis of Ukraine’s Economy

HistoryHistory

Previous to 1991, Ukraine was part of the USSR. It possessed a Classical Soviet-Type Economy:

State Ownership Hierarchical Structure Rigid Administrative Planning/Centrally Planned Economy Socialist Competition Collective Farming Low Morale Intensive Defense Spending Maximal resource utilization/formal rationing Exhaustive Price Control Etc. The economy of Ukraine was the second largest in the USSR, due to its important industrial and

agricultural contributions to the empire.

Previous to 1991, Ukraine was part of the USSR. It possessed a Classical Soviet-Type Economy:

State Ownership Hierarchical Structure Rigid Administrative Planning/Centrally Planned Economy Socialist Competition Collective Farming Low Morale Intensive Defense Spending Maximal resource utilization/formal rationing Exhaustive Price Control Etc. The economy of Ukraine was the second largest in the USSR, due to its important industrial and

agricultural contributions to the empire.

1991-Independence1991-Independence

In December 1991, the USSR was dissolved. Ukraine voted overwhelmingly for its independence. Over 90 % of Ukrainians votes in favor of independence from the Russian Federation.

Although much of Ukraine is pro-Russian in its sentiments, subsequent analyses show that the majority of voters in Ukraine came to support independence because they believed that a separate existence from the USSR might be the best guarantee for their economic well-being.

In December 1991, the USSR was dissolved. Ukraine voted overwhelmingly for its independence. Over 90 % of Ukrainians votes in favor of independence from the Russian Federation.

Although much of Ukraine is pro-Russian in its sentiments, subsequent analyses show that the majority of voters in Ukraine came to support independence because they believed that a separate existence from the USSR might be the best guarantee for their economic well-being.

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1991-2004: Growing Pains1991-2004: Growing Pains

Ukraine considered to be the most viable post-Soviet State, economically and socially. Many analysts, from Deutsche Bank to the U.S. News and World Report predicted that Ukraine might well be the only success story to emerge from the debris of the Soviet Union.

However, the Ukrainian euphoria of December 1991 soon turned to disappointment. Its attempt to transition to a market economy was difficult. Ukraine went from one of the world’s most educated and richest countries to rock bottom.

Reasons: The end of Ukraine’s subordination to Russia yielded no meaningful change in the makeup or structure of the Ukrainian ruling elite. If anything, governance under the regimes of the 1990s and early twentieth century deteriorated. Independence was brought about by the same old nomenklatura (ruling class), who had no commitment to reform or independence.

Ukraine considered to be the most viable post-Soviet State, economically and socially. Many analysts, from Deutsche Bank to the U.S. News and World Report predicted that Ukraine might well be the only success story to emerge from the debris of the Soviet Union.

However, the Ukrainian euphoria of December 1991 soon turned to disappointment. Its attempt to transition to a market economy was difficult. Ukraine went from one of the world’s most educated and richest countries to rock bottom.

Reasons: The end of Ukraine’s subordination to Russia yielded no meaningful change in the makeup or structure of the Ukrainian ruling elite. If anything, governance under the regimes of the 1990s and early twentieth century deteriorated. Independence was brought about by the same old nomenklatura (ruling class), who had no commitment to reform or independence.

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1991-2004: Growing Pains (cont’d)

1991-2004: Growing Pains (cont’d)

Oligarch, Clan-style politics: The political scene was dominated by groups of powerful politicians intermixed with powerful businessman.

Rent-Seeking: The rent collected in the ‘90s achieved parity with the country’s GDP. In 1999, 89% of the population believed the gov’t to be corrupt. Subsidized Energy and loans were received from Yeltsin’s Russia until 1999. The

continual high debt to Russia continued until the Putin era ushered in geopolitical dominance.

After Putin elected Russian President, Russia took a tougher stance and pursued a more strict economic policy toward Ukraine. According to President Kuchma, “With Yeltsin, you could reach an agreement, but with Putin it’s cashupfront.”

Oligarch, Clan-style politics: The political scene was dominated by groups of powerful politicians intermixed with powerful businessman.

Rent-Seeking: The rent collected in the ‘90s achieved parity with the country’s GDP. In 1999, 89% of the population believed the gov’t to be corrupt. Subsidized Energy and loans were received from Yeltsin’s Russia until 1999. The

continual high debt to Russia continued until the Putin era ushered in geopolitical dominance.

After Putin elected Russian President, Russia took a tougher stance and pursued a more strict economic policy toward Ukraine. According to President Kuchma, “With Yeltsin, you could reach an agreement, but with Putin it’s cashupfront.”

Orange RevolutionOrange Revolution

Orange RevolutionOrange Revolution

Orange Revolution. In 2004, hundreds of thousands of protestors took to the streets to protest the declaration that Viktor Yanukovych won the presidency. It was widely believed that the elections were rigged, and involved heavy Russian influence. Putin overtly supported Yanukovych.

A runoff election was held, and the pro-West candidate Viktor Yushchenko won the re-vote by a margin of 52% to 44%. He was inaugurated as President of Ukraine in January 2005.

Yushchenko vowed to accelerate economic reforms in Ukraine and

integrate with the West. However, in the first few years, policy

disagreements within the government and a shifty parliament hampered

economic progress.

Orange Revolution. In 2004, hundreds of thousands of protestors took to the streets to protest the declaration that Viktor Yanukovych won the presidency. It was widely believed that the elections were rigged, and involved heavy Russian influence. Putin overtly supported Yanukovych.

A runoff election was held, and the pro-West candidate Viktor Yushchenko won the re-vote by a margin of 52% to 44%. He was inaugurated as President of Ukraine in January 2005.

Yushchenko vowed to accelerate economic reforms in Ukraine and

integrate with the West. However, in the first few years, policy

disagreements within the government and a shifty parliament hampered

economic progress.

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The Yushchenko YearsThe Yushchenko Years

Despite the political infighting and competition, which has hampered some market reform and progress, the Yushchenko years have been more successful overall than the previous years since independence:

Hryvnya stabilization More Privatization Growth in GDP FDI Market Reforms Lower Inflation Wage Increases

Despite the political infighting and competition, which has hampered some market reform and progress, the Yushchenko years have been more successful overall than the previous years since independence:

Hryvnya stabilization More Privatization Growth in GDP FDI Market Reforms Lower Inflation Wage Increases

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StatisticsStatistics GDP (PPP) : $399.86 Billion - ranks 35th. Grew 7% in 2007. GDP per capita: $8,624 for 2007 GDP by sector: Agriculture (9.2%), Industry (32.6%), Services (58.2%) Inflation: 16.6% in 2007 Population Below Poverty Line: 19.5% in 2004 Labor Force: 21.63 million in 2007 Labor Force by Occupation: Agriculture (25%), Industry (20%), Services (55%) Unemployment: 2.5% officially, 7% according to the ILO (International Labor Org) for 2007. Main Industries: Coal, electric power, ferrous and nonferrous metals, machinery and transport equipment,chemicals, food processing (grain, sugar, meat, milk). Also rich inhydroelectricity and nuclear fuel raw materials.

Source - CIA World Factbook

GDP (PPP) : $399.86 Billion - ranks 35th. Grew 7% in 2007. GDP per capita: $8,624 for 2007 GDP by sector: Agriculture (9.2%), Industry (32.6%), Services (58.2%) Inflation: 16.6% in 2007 Population Below Poverty Line: 19.5% in 2004 Labor Force: 21.63 million in 2007 Labor Force by Occupation: Agriculture (25%), Industry (20%), Services (55%) Unemployment: 2.5% officially, 7% according to the ILO (International Labor Org) for 2007. Main Industries: Coal, electric power, ferrous and nonferrous metals, machinery and transport equipment,chemicals, food processing (grain, sugar, meat, milk). Also rich inhydroelectricity and nuclear fuel raw materials.

Source - CIA World Factbook

Statistics (cont’d)Statistics (cont’d) Exports: $46.68 Billion for 2007. Main export is steel, 7th largest producer of steel. High global

prices for steel have also helped boost Ukraine’s GDP. Export Goods: ferrous metals and nonferrous metals, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals,

machinery and transport equipment, food products (especially sugar). Main export partners: Russia (21.3%), Turkey (7.1%), Italy (6.4%) and US (4.1%)

Imports: $54.3 Billion for 2007 Import Goods: Energy, machinery and equipment, chemicals Main import partners: Russia (28.2%), Germany (11.7%), Poland (7.6%), China (7%), and

Turkmenistan (5.7%) Gross External Debt: $65.38 Billion as of 2007

In 2008, Ukraine joined the WTO.Source: CIA World Factbook

Exports: $46.68 Billion for 2007. Main export is steel, 7th largest producer of steel. High global prices for steel have also helped boost Ukraine’s GDP.

Export Goods: ferrous metals and nonferrous metals, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment, food products (especially sugar).

Main export partners: Russia (21.3%), Turkey (7.1%), Italy (6.4%) and US (4.1%)

Imports: $54.3 Billion for 2007 Import Goods: Energy, machinery and equipment, chemicals Main import partners: Russia (28.2%), Germany (11.7%), Poland (7.6%), China (7%), and

Turkmenistan (5.7%) Gross External Debt: $65.38 Billion as of 2007

In 2008, Ukraine joined the WTO.Source: CIA World Factbook

Economic IssuesEconomic Issues Ukraine's economy is 51.1 percent free, according the Heritage Foundation’s 2008 Index of

Economic Freedom, which makes it the world's 133rd freest economy. Its overall score is 0.6 percentage point lower than last year. Ukraine is ranked 39th out of 41 countries in the European region, and its overall score is much lower than the regional average.

Ukraine is very weak in business freedom, government size, monetary freedom, investment freedom, property rights, and freedom from corruption. Inflation is high, and government expenditures equal nearly two-fifths of GDP. While foreign investment is officially welcomed, corruption and regulations are deterrents to capital. The judiciary does not always enforce contracts and is tarnished with corruption. Corruption is a major problem throughout the civil service, and bureaucratic inefficiency makes many commercial operations difficult.

The agricultural sector is strong but overregulated through quotas and tariffs on grain exports. Ukraine has benefited heavily from recent increases in the prices of metals. Despite lucrative opportunities for foreign direct investment, economic progress in the near term may be slowed by persistent corruption, steadily increasing gas prices, deteriorating infrastructure, and political uncertainty.

Corruption is perceived as widespread. Ukraine ranks 99th out of 163 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2006. Corruption pervades all levels of society and government and all spheres of economic activity. Low public-sector salaries fuel corruption in local administrative bodies such as the highway police and tax administration as well as in the education system.

Ukraine scored achieved a rank of 106 on the 2007 Failed State Index, and 108 on the 2008 Failed State Index. Both were n the “Orange”, which is considered a “Warning” country.

Ukraine's economy is 51.1 percent free, according the Heritage Foundation’s 2008 Index of Economic Freedom, which makes it the world's 133rd freest economy. Its overall score is 0.6 percentage point lower than last year. Ukraine is ranked 39th out of 41 countries in the European region, and its overall score is much lower than the regional average.

Ukraine is very weak in business freedom, government size, monetary freedom, investment freedom, property rights, and freedom from corruption. Inflation is high, and government expenditures equal nearly two-fifths of GDP. While foreign investment is officially welcomed, corruption and regulations are deterrents to capital. The judiciary does not always enforce contracts and is tarnished with corruption. Corruption is a major problem throughout the civil service, and bureaucratic inefficiency makes many commercial operations difficult.

The agricultural sector is strong but overregulated through quotas and tariffs on grain exports. Ukraine has benefited heavily from recent increases in the prices of metals. Despite lucrative opportunities for foreign direct investment, economic progress in the near term may be slowed by persistent corruption, steadily increasing gas prices, deteriorating infrastructure, and political uncertainty.

Corruption is perceived as widespread. Ukraine ranks 99th out of 163 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2006. Corruption pervades all levels of society and government and all spheres of economic activity. Low public-sector salaries fuel corruption in local administrative bodies such as the highway police and tax administration as well as in the education system.

Ukraine scored achieved a rank of 106 on the 2007 Failed State Index, and 108 on the 2008 Failed State Index. Both were n the “Orange”, which is considered a “Warning” country.

Last but not least: EnergyLast but not least: Energy

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