Analysis of potential and actual supporters of “green” issues - Poland

Design of the survey

Target population Potential green supporters in Poland (18+ years)

Design of the sample Quota sample

Sample size(Unweighted)

n = 1.642

thereof Green Potentialn = 446 (27% of total sample)

Data collection CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews)

Weighting Education

Significant differences (at a level of 95%) are marked. “Significant at a level of 95%” means that differences do not occur by chance (with a probability of 95%), but that they also exist in the real population.

Agenda

Part I – Electoral behaviour• Electoral behaviour at National / European elections• Comparison between National and European electoral behaviour• Reasons for electoral behaviour• Green Potential

Part II – Attitude towards EU

Part III – Topics• Important topics for the future• Actual mood in Poland• Competences of the parties

Part IV – Positioning• Image of the parties• Image of the Green party (by different voting groups)• Importance – Performance: attributes and competences• What should a Green party stand for?

Part IElectoral behaviour

Election results (official and sample) - Poland Last National and European Elections

European Election 2004(official result)

European Election 2004

(sample)

PO 24,1% 41,0% (+/- 3,2%)

LPR 15,9% 1,2% (+/- 0,7%)

PiS 12,7% 35,1% (+/- 3,1%)

RP 10,8% 1,6% (+/- 0,8%)

SLD-UP(alliance between: SLD, UP)

9,4% 11,5% (+/- 2,1%)

UW 7,3% 0,7% (+/- 0,5%)

PSL 6,3% 6,6% (+/- 1,6%)

SdPl 5,3% 0,7% (+/- 0,5%)

UPR 1,9% 0,0%

Other 6,2% 1,5% (+/- 0,8%)

n 935

Non- or Invalid-voters:

• National Election: 6,7% (official: 47,2%)

• European Election: 24,0% (official: 79,7%)

… over-represented

National Election 2007(official result)

National Election 2007

(sample)

PO 41,5% 51,1% (+/- 2,7%)

PiS 32,1% 30,4% (+/- 2,5%)

LiD (alliance between: SLD, SdPl, PD, UP)

13,2% 9,4% (+/- 1,6%)

PSL 8,9% 5,8% (+/- 1,3%)

RP 1,5% 0,7% (+/- 0,5%)

LPR 1,3% 0,9% (+/- 0,5%)

PPP 1,0% 0,1% (+/- 0,2%)

Other 0,5% 1,6% (+/- 0,7%)

n 1.354

… under-represented

Incl. Non-/ Invalid-voters Excl. Non-/ Invalid-voters

European Elections 2004 (within sample)

European Elections next

Sunday

European Elections 2004 (within sample)

European Elections next

Sunday

PO 31,1% (+/- 2,6%)

52,3% (+/- 3,0%)

41,0% (+/- 3,2%)

55,4% (+/- 3,1%)

PiS 26,7% (+/- 2,5%)

25,4% (+/- 2,6%)

35,1% (+/- 3,1%)

27,0% (+/- 2,7%)

SLD-UP(alliance between: SLD, UP)

8,7% (+/- 1,6%)

- 11,5% (+/- 2,1%)

-

SLD - 7,1% (+/- 1,5%)

- 7,6% (+/- 1,6%)

PSL 5,0% (+/- 1,2%)

4,8% (+/- 1,3%)

6,6% (+/- 1,6%)

5,1% (+/- 1,4%)

RP 1,2% (+/- 0,6%)

0,7% (+/- 0,5%)

1,6% (+/- 0,8%)

0,8% (+/- 0,5%)

LPR 0,9% (+/- 0,5%)

0,9% (+/- 0,6%)

1,2% (+/- 0,7%)

1,0% (+/- 0,6%)

Other 2,3% (+/- 0,9%)

3,0% (+/- 1,0%)

2,9% (+/- 1,1%)

3,1% (+/- 1,1%)

None/ Invalid 24,0% (+/- 2,4%)

5,7% (+/- 1,4%)

- -

n 1.231 1.120 935 1.056

Electoral behaviour at European ElectionsPlease note that shares can differ from the official results and because of this the shares of future elections should not be interpreted , but the relative changes are relevant

44% say that they will definitely vote at the next European Election – 8% will definitely not vote.

(+/- … %): margin of error; e.g. 1,4% (+/-1,1%) means that the result lies with a probability of 95% within the interval between (1,4%-1,1%=) 0,3% and (1,4%+1,1%=) 2,5%

Very sure Quite sure Not sure yet

36% 17% 48%

29% 35% 35%

35% 43% 22%

52% 33% 15%

48% 33% 19%

44% 40% 17%

16% 10% 10% 12% 51%

15%

2%

17% 61% 5%

13% 8% 75% 4%

8% 89%

1%1%

3%

94%

1% 2%1%

97%

1%1%

National elections

PO

PiS

SLD

PSL

others

none / invalid

Eu

ropean

ele

ctio

ns

High percentage of constant voters

n

564

264

76

48

41

49

PO, PiS and SLD have the highest percentage of constant voters.

Only 51% of the non-voters will not vote at the national elections, either!

n = 1.042

3%

3%

4%

5%

6%

10%

14%

17%

33%

48%

Other reasons

Certain topics

Protesting against government

Other politicians of the voted party

Tactics concerning the elections

Top candidate

Voting the lesser evil

Sympathy

My values

Manifesto / general principles of the party

A party’s manifesto and voter’s values are the main reasons for voting a party

n = 315 (only asked within Green Potential)

58% totally agree / tend to agree that voting for a small party is a wasted vote.62% totally agree that parties should make clear before elections with whom they will form coalition.

58% totally agree / tend to agree that voting for a small party is a wasted vote.62% totally agree that parties should make clear before elections with whom they will form coalition.

The category “Certain topics” contains mostly security and social issues. “Other reasons” are e.g. personal reasons or that the respondent knows more about this party than about the others etc.

The category “Certain topics” contains mostly security and social issues. “Other reasons” are e.g. personal reasons or that the respondent knows more about this party than about the others etc.

There are no differences in the voting decisions of certain voting groups, except a significant but small difference concerning the category „certain topics“.

Definition Green Potential

Part of Green Potential

Could you imagine voting for a party which has environment as one of its main focuses?

n = 1.553Definitely Rather Rather not Definitely not

26%

45%

20%

9%

~ Every fourth person within the Green Potential

Green Potential (27% of total sample)Green Potential (27% of total sample)Green Potential (27% of total sample)Green Potential (27% of total sample)

Weak Green PotentialWeak Green PotentialWeak Green PotentialWeak Green PotentialStrong Green Strong Green

PotentialPotentialStrong Green Strong Green

PotentialPotentialGreen votersGreen votersGreen votersGreen voters

Have not already voted Green, but consider Zieloni 2004 for the next European Election or could definitely imagine voting for a party with environment

focus

Have not already voted Green, but consider Zieloni 2004 for the next European Election or could definitely imagine voting for a party with environment

focus

Have already voted for Zieloni 2004 or will presumably vote for Zieloni 2004 at the next

National Election, but will not vote for Zieloni 2004 at the

next European Election.

Have already voted for Zieloni 2004 or will presumably vote for Zieloni 2004 at the next

National Election, but will not vote for Zieloni 2004 at the

next European Election.

Will presumably vote for Zieloni 2004 at the next

European Election.

Will presumably vote for Zieloni 2004 at the next

European Election.

98,7% (26,9% of total sample)






• People in the Green Potential do not differ from other Polish people regarding region, gender, education and living space

• More > 59 years old people, less 30-39 years old people• More retirees, less students or doing community/military service

• People in the Green Potential do not differ from other Polish people regarding region, gender, education and living space

• More > 59 years old people, less 30-39 years old people• More retirees, less students or doing community/military service

Part IIAttitude towards EU

The majority is not totally convinced that things are going into the right direction in Europe

n = 1.642

Only 8% of the population is convinced that things are going into the right direction in Europe. At least 49% tend to agree on this statement.

Totally agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Totally disagree

8%

49%

32%

10%

Positive mood towards the EU: Poland has benefited, but should protect its interests

n = ~ 1.580* n = 435 (only asked within Green Potential)

The performance of the EU is evaluated on average with 2,4*. (1: very good - 4: insufficient) Only 9%* of the Green Potential evaluate the performance with “very good”.

Totally agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Totally disagree

7% 5% 23% 65%

8% 13% 32% 44%

14% 23% 38% 27%

15% 28% 36% 21%

16% 22% 34% 28%

48% 29% 16% 6%

48% 39% 9% 4%

I would appreciate it if Polandwould leave the EU.

European Elections are notimportant.

In my opinion, more decisionsshould be made on EU level than

on a national level.

The European Elections are a goodopportunity to protest against the

national government.

The EU should stop enlargement.

To protect Poland's own interestsat the international level is more

important than good relations withthe EU.

Generally speaking, our countryhas benefited from being a member

of the EU.

High agreement on protecting national interests

It makes no odds whether the general EU-mood is positive or critical, the agreement to protecting national interests is always very high.

Enlargement-opponents have a rather positive opinion towards the EU.Enlargement-opponents have a rather positive opinion towards the EU.

Of those who absolutely think that the EU should stop enlargement, most think that …• protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relations with the EU, but also that• Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU• Poland should not leave the EU• European Elections are important (but not a good opportunity to protest against the national

government)

Decliners of European Elections have a rather positive opinion towards EU.Decliners of European Elections have a rather positive opinion towards EU.

Of those who totally agree that the European Elections are not important, most think that …

• protecting Poland‘s interests is more important than good relations with the EU, but also that• Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU• Poland should not leave the EU• EU should not stop enlargement

Protecting national interests is always more important than EU-aspects.Protecting national interests is always more important than EU-aspects.

detaileddetailed

Differences in the EU-related mood between specific groups of people

More positive towards EU More critical towards EU

Green potential♦ 19% totally agree that “more decisions should

be made on EU level than on a national level” (Non-Green Potential: 12%)

♦ 57% totally agree that “Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU” (Non-Green Potential: 45%)

♦ 20% totally agree that “the European Elections are a good opportunity to protest against the national government” (Non-Green Potential: 13%)

Green potential♦ 20% totally agree that “the EU should stop

enlargement” (Non-Green Potential: 14%)♦ 11% totally agree that “European Elections are

not important” (Non-Green Potential: 7%)♦ 59% totally agree that “protecting Poland’s own

interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU” (Non-Green Potential: 45%)

Higher educated people♦ The higher educated, the more people

disagree that “Poland should leave the EU” (University: 93%), “the EU should stop enlargement” (University: 76%) and “European Elections are not important” (University: 87%)

♦ The higher educated, the less people agree that “protecting Poland’s own interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU” (University: 68%, Elementary/Primary school: 89%)

♦ Lower educated people see the EU Elections rather as possibility to protest against the national government (University: 34%, Elementary/Primary school: 54%)

Women♦ 42% totally agree that “Poland has benefited

from being a member of the EU” (men: 55%)♦ 81% agree that “protecting Poland’s own

interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU” (men: 74%)

♦ 59% totally disagree that “Poland should leave the EU” (men: 71%)

The Green potential is undecided concerning its EU-related mood.The Green potential is undecided concerning its EU-related mood.

Women are more critical towards the EU than

men.

Women are more critical towards the EU than

men.

Higher educated people are have a more positive

mood towards the EU than the other education

groups.

Higher educated people are have a more positive

mood towards the EU than the other education

groups.



Young people (18-29 years)♦ Highest disagreement on “Poland should leave the

EU” (89%) and “European Elections are not important” (84%)

♦ Highest agreement on “Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU” (91%)

♦ The older, the more people agree that „the EU should stop enlargement“(< 30: 31%, > 59: 45%) and “protecting Poland’s own interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU (<30: 65%, > 59: 85%)

♦ > 59 and < 30 years old people see the EU Elections rather as possibility to protest against the national government (> 59: 49%, < 30: 44%)

Not urban living space

♦ The more rural the living space, the more agreement on the statement “Poland should leave the EU” (City: 10%, Suburbs: 14%, Countryside: 15%)

Student, doing community or military service♦ 81% totally disagree on “Poland should leave the

EU” (others between 46% and 71%)♦ 60% agree that “Poland has benefited from being a

member of the EU” (others between 38% and 54%)♦ Least total agreement of 6% on “the EU should

stop enlargement” (others between 13% and 21%) and

♦ Just 29% totally agree that “protecting Poland’s interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU” (others between 43% and 59%)

Students have a more positive opinion towards

the EU than the other occupation groups.

Students have a more positive opinion towards

the EU than the other occupation groups.

Young people have more positive mood towards the EU than the other

age groups.

Young people have more positive mood towards the EU than the other

age groups.

People living in not urban areas are more critical

towards the EU than the other living space

groups.

People living in not urban areas are more critical

towards the EU than the other living space

groups.

Significant correlation between age and occupation.



Voters of PO and SLD (tendency)♦ PO: highest disagreement on “Poland should leave the

EU” (94%), “the EU should stop enlargement” (67%) and “European Elections are not important” (82%)

♦ PO: highest agreement on “Poland has benefited from being member of the EU” (92%)

♦ SLD: highest agreement on “more decisions should be made on EU level than on a national level” (49%)

♦ SLD: lowest agreement on “protecting Poland’s interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU” (59%)

Voters of other parties (not PO, PiS, SLD, PSL) and PiS (tendency)

♦ other: lowest disagreement on “Poland should leave the EU” (79%) and “the EU should stop enlargement” (40%)

♦ other: lowest agreement on “Poland has benefited from being member of the EU” (80%)

♦ PiS: lowest agreement on “more decisions should be made on EU level than on a national level” (32%); low agreement on “Poland has benefited from being member of the EU” (81%)

♦ PiS: highest agreement on “protecting Poland’s interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU” (89%)

Important topics: Environment, Traffic, Education, Migration, Science

♦ Environment: 29% agree that “the EU should stop enlargement” (not env.: 39%); 70% agree that “Poland should protect own interests” (not env.: 79%)

♦ Traffic: 35% agree that “the EU should stop enlargement” (not traffic: 38%)

♦ Education: 23% agree that “the EU should stop enlargement” (not edu.: 39%)

♦ Migration: 73% agree that “Poland should protect own interests” (not migration: 78%)

♦ Science: 63% agree that “more decisions should be made on EU level” (not science: 36%); 0% agree that “European Elections are not important” (not sc.: 22%)

Important topics: Security & fight against crime, International affairs, Culture & Society, Culture & Art:

♦ Security: 34% agree that “the EU should stop enlargement” (not sec.: 37%)

♦ International affairs: 42% agree that “EU should stop enlargement” (non int. affairs: 36%)

♦ Culture & Society: 20% agree that “more decisions should be made on EU level” (not c&s: 37%)

♦ Culture & Art: 71% agree that “Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU” (not c&a: 87%)

People who think that additional needs are

important have a more positive mood towards the EU than people with basic

needs.

People who think that additional needs are

important have a more positive mood towards the EU than people with basic

needs.

People who think that basic needs are important are more critical towards the EU than people with

additional needs.

People who think that basic needs are important are more critical towards the EU than people with

additional needs.

PO-Voters are more positive, SLD-Voters tend

to be more positive towards the EU than the

voters of the other parties.

PO-Voters are more positive, SLD-Voters tend

to be more positive towards the EU than the


Voters of other parties are more critical, PiS-Voters tend to be more critical towards the EU than the


Voters of other parties are more critical, PiS-Voters tend to be more critical towards the EU than the


Part IIITopics

0%0%

0%0%

1%1%

1%0%

1%0%

1%2%

1%1%

5%6%

6%7%

7%8%

8%9%

11%13%

12%16%

17%11%

29%27%

33%41%

40%37%

Economy

International affairs*

Social Issues

Nothing comes to my mind*

Environment*

Other

Politics

Security & Fight against crime

Education

Traffic

Science

Culture & Society

Religion

Migration

Culture & Arts

Media

Everything is ok

Economy, International affairs and Social issues are the most important topics for the future

Green Potential Non-Green Potential n (Non-Green Potential) = 1.194n (Green Potential) = 448

* Significantly different

Significantly more important for the Green Potential:• International Affairs• Environment

Significantly less often mentioned of the Green Potential:• Nothing comes to my mind

Significantly more important for the Green Potential:• International Affairs• Environment

Significantly less often mentioned of the Green Potential:• Nothing comes to my mind

detailed categories for Other

Issues regarding Environment, Traffic and International affairs are more important for the Green Potential

Sub-categories general Rank

War and Peace 1 (24%)

Economy general 2 (13%)

(Un-)Employment 3 (12%)

Health system 3 (12%)

Environment general 5 (11%)

Other 6 (9%)

Reduction of poverty/ Class differences 7 (6%)

Salaries and wages 7 (6%)

Retirement system 9 (5%)

Expansion of motorways/ roads 9 (5%)

Sub-categories Green Potential Rank

War and Peace 1 (26%)

Environment general 2 (13%)

Economy general 2 (13%)

(Un-)Employment 4 (11%)

Other 5 (10%)

Health system 6 (9%)

Retirement system 7 (7%)

Salaries and wages 8 (6%)

Reduction of poverty/ Class differences 9 (6%)

International affairs general 10 (6%)

n (general) = 1.642n (Green Potential) = 448

Significant differences between Green Potential and Non-Green Potential

More important within green potential:Air pollution, nature conservation, expansion of public transport, traffic – general, more/ free childcare organisations, fight crime, globalisation, international affairs – generalLess important within green potential:Health system

Significant differences between Green Potential and Non-Green Potential

More important within green potential:Air pollution, nature conservation, expansion of public transport, traffic – general, more/ free childcare organisations, fight crime, globalisation, international affairs – generalLess important within green potential:Health system

Largest dissatisfaction concerning Social issues and Environment protection

n/a

32

20

52

52

34

29

66

18

28

15

7

14

31

Too much Too little Wrong things Generally satisfied n = 448 (only Green Potential)

3%

66% 11% 19%

3%

68% 9% 20%

3%

61% 12% 24%

5% 54% 17% 25%

3%

61% 10% 26%

3%

64% 7% 26%

7% 45% 16% 33%

3%

44% 19% 34%

4% 57% 5% 34%

12% 37% 16% 35%

6% 45% 10% 39%

4% 43% 13% 40%

3%

47% 5% 45%Culture and arts

International affairs

Minority rights

Immigration of foreigners

Science and research

Education

Globalisation

Defense of human rights

Mobility and transportation

Economy

Security and fight against crime

Environment protection

Social issues

Highest Dissatisfaction: Social issues and Environment protection

Flop-5 (% dissatisfied) Rank

Social issues 1 (81%)

Environment protection 2 (80%)

Security and fight against crime 3 (76%)

Economy 4 (75%)

Mobility and transportation 5 (74%)

Top-5 (% satisfied) Rank

Culture and arts 1 (45%)

International affairs 2 (40%)

Minority rights 3 (39%)

Immigration of foreigners 4 (35%)

Science and research 5 (34%)

Economy, International affairs and Social issues are three of the most important topics for Polish people. There is a very high dissatisfaction with the actual situation concerning Social issues and Economy, but a quite high satisfaction with the measures taken regarding International affairs.

n = 448 (only Green Potential)

Economy is more important for men; women are generally less satisfied than men

Important topics Dissatisfaction

Men

(Green Potential)

1. International affairs (43%)2. Economy (38%)3. Social issues (20%)

Significantly more important than for women:• Nature conservation• Energy• Army/ national defense• Security & fight against crime – other• EU affairs• Relations with neighbouring countries

1. Social issues (81%)2. Environment (80%)3. Mobility and transportation (75%)

Significantly less satisfied than women:• Minority rights

Women

(Green Potential)


Significantly more important than for men:• Social issues• Education• Culture & Arts• Health System• Retirement System• Life quality/ Standard of living• More harmony and reliability• Security & fight against crime – general

1. Defense of human rights (81%)2. Social issues (81%)3. Environment (80%)

Significantly less satisfied than men:• Immigration of foreigners• Defense of human rights


Some differences in important topics between age groups; younger people are less satisfied


18 – 29 years

1. Economy (45%)2. International affairs (33%)3. Environment (15%)

Significantly more important than in other groups:• Economy – general• Expansion of Public transport• Fight crime (except 30-44years old)• Terrorism (except 30-44years old)• International affairs – general

Significantly less important than in other groups:• Social Issues• Reduction of poverty/ class differences• Health system (except 45-59years old)• Globalisation (except 60+years old)

Significantly more often than in other groups:• Nothing comes to my mind


Significantly more satisfied than other groups:• Security and fight against crime• International affairs• Science and research• Culture and arts

30 – 44 years

1. Economy (39%)2. International affairs (38%)3. Social Issues (30%)

Significantly more important than in other groups:• Migration• Fight crime (except 18-29years old)• Terrorism (except 18-29years old)

1. Social issues (86%)2. Security and fight against crime (81%)3. Environment (81%)

45 – 59 years

1. Economy (43%)2. International affairs (38%)3. Social Issues (27%)

Significantly more important than in other groups:• Youth employment• Housing policy

Significantly less important than in other groups:• Health system (except 18-29years old)

1. Social issues (81%)2. Defense of human rights (79%)3. Economy (77%)

60+ years

1. International affairs (52%)2. Social Issues (35%)3. Economy (24%)

Significantly more important than in other groups:• International affairs• Culture & Society• Retirement system• War & Peace• Culture & Society – other

Significantly less important than in other groups:• Economy• Globalisation (except 18-29years old)

1. Environment (86%)2. Security and fight against crime (81%)3. Economy (80%)


Lower educated people are less satisfied, economic topics affecting their daily lives are more important


Elementary/ primary school

1. Economy (45%)2. International affairs (43%)3. Social issues (36%)

Significantly more important than in other groups:• Salaries & Wages• Traffic – general• Change of government• Security and fight against crime - other

1. Defense of human rights (80%)2. Security and fight against crime (80%)3. Environment (79%)

Significantly less satisfied than other groups:• Globalisation

Secondary/ high school


Significantly more important than in other groups:• Culture & SocietySignificantly less important than in other groups:• Social issues• (Un-)Employment• Reduction of poverty/ class differences


Higher education/ university


Significantly more important than in other groups:• Security and fight against crime - general

1. Environment (87%)2. Security and fight against crime (83%)3. Social issues (81%)


Lack of competences of Zieloni regarding all areas

Negative effects Positive effects

Zieloni

SLD

PSL

PiS

PO

• PiS and PO: highest

competence regarding

most topics

• PSL: highest competence

regarding environment

protection!

• No competences are

related to Zieloni, not

even environment

protection

• PiS and PO: highest

competence regarding

most topics

• PSL: highest competence

regarding environment

protection!

• No competences are

related to Zieloni, not

even environment

protection

(n ~ 130)

(n ~ 58)

(n ~ 60)

(n ~ 106)

(n ~ 215)

Zieloni is evaluated by the whole Green Potential, other parties only by their voters or probable voters!

Economy

Mobility &tranportation

Social issues

Education

Security & fightagainst crime

Immigration offoreigners

International affairs

Globalisation

Defense of humanrights

Minority rights

Environmentprotection

Science & Research

Culture & Arts

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

(only asked within Green Potential)

Economy, Social Issues: quite high importance & dissatisfaction, but very low competence

topic Nr.

Economy 1

Mobility & transportation 2

Social Issues 3

Education 4

Security & Fight against crime 5

Immigration of foreigners 6

International affairs 7

Globalisation 8

Defense of human rights 9

Minority Rights 10

Environment protection 11

Science & Research 12

Culture & Arts 13

The larger the ball, the larger

the competence of Zieloni 2004

in this area. The leader regarding

the competence is also mentioned.

F: Follower L: Leader

1

2

3

4 5

8

126

7

910

11

13

- 0,1

0,9

0,0 1,0

--- dissatisfaction +++

---

import

an

ce +

++

L: PiS

L: PiS

L: PiS

L: PiSL: PiS

L: PO

L: PO

L: POL: PiS

L: PO

L: PSL

L: PO

L: PO

Environment is a quite important topic, but not decisive to vote for a party

The larger the ball, the larger

the competence of Zieloni 2004

in this area. The leader regarding

the competence is also mentioned.

topic Nr. Not sign.

Economy 1

Mobility & transportation 2

Social Issues 3 X

Education 4

Security & Fight against crime 5

Immigration of foreigners 6

International affairs 7 X

Globalisation 8 X

Defense of human rights 9 X

Minority Rights 10 X

Environment protection 11

Science & Research 12

Culture & Arts 13 X

F: Follower L: Leader

1

2

3

4 5

8

126

7

910

11

13

- 0,1

0,9

0,0 1,0


---

import

ance +

++

1

2

45

12

6

11

- 0,1

0,9

0,0 1,0


---

import

ance +

++

EconomyL: PiS

MobilityL: PiS

EducationL: PiS

SecurityL: PiS

Not ImmigrationL: PO

Not EnvironmentL: PSL

Science & ResearchL: PO

Part IVPositioning

Very low (aided) awareness of the Zieloni 2004 members within the Green Potential

Zieloni 2004

Better known among older people (> 59 years: 45%)Higher awareness among women (39%)The higher educated, the better known is Zieloni 2004 (University: 43%)Highest awareness among self-employed people (50%), lowest awareness among workers (17%)

Radoslaw Gawłik Higher awareness among lower educated people (Elementary/ Primary school)

Dadiusz Szwed

No significant differences regarding background variablesAgnieszka Grzybek

Magdalena Mosiewicz

n = 448 (only asked within Green Potential)

3%

4%

6%

8%

34%Zieloni 2004

Radoslaw Gawłik

Dariusz Szwed

Agnieszka Grzybek

Magdalena Mosiewicz

Performance of PO is evaluated best by the Green Potential – moderate evaluation of Zieloni 2004

n = 209

n = 105

n = 59

n = 130

n = 57

• 45 - 59 years old people evaluate Zieloni 2004 best (22% „very good“)

• Over half of the people who are older than 59 evaluate Zieloni 2004 as “good” (57%) and nobody of this age class evaluate it as “insufficient”

BUT PLEASE NOTE: Zieloni 2004 is evaluated by people who would (perhaps) vote it for the European Elections next Sunday or just know Zieloni 2004, other parties only by their voters or probable voters!

Different voter groups do not evaluate Zieloni 2004 significant differently.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Very good 2 3 Insufficient

PO PiS SLD PSL Zieloni 2004

2,46

2,39

2,24

2,09

2,06

SLD

Zieloni 2004

PSL

PiS

PO

Zieloni 2004 is not perceived as boring, aloof or unpredictable but less competent and future oriented

• PO: most likeable

• PiS: most committed and

trustworthy

• Zieloni 2004: less distinctive

image than the other parties

• PO: most likeable

• PiS: most committed and

trustworthy

• Zieloni 2004: less distinctive

image than the other parties

People living in the South-West

perceive Zieloni 2004 rather as

authentic, likeable, competent

and future oriented. People from

the North-East have a rather

critical attitude towards Zieloni

2004.

People living in the South-West

perceive Zieloni 2004 rather as

authentic, likeable, competent

and future oriented. People from

the North-East have a rather

critical attitude towards Zieloni

2004.


POn = 215

PiSn = 106

SLDn = 58

PSLn = 60

Zieloni 2004n = 160

BUT PLEASE NOTE: Zieloni 2004 is evaluated by people who would (perhaps) vote it for the European Elections next Sunday or just know Zieloni 2004, other parties only by their voters or probable voters!

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

authentic

likeable

competent

boring

future oriented

committed

aloof

trustworthy

unpredictable

close to people

CompetentAuthenticTrustworthyClose to people

CompetentAuthenticTrustworthyClose to people

LikeableClose to peoplecommitted

LikeableClose to peoplecommitted

Future-orientedcommittedFuture-orientedcommitted

AloofAloof

Fact

or

analy

sis

Fact

or

analy

sis

Fact

or

analy

sis

Fact

or

analy

sis

Factor “competent & reliable”Factor “competent & reliable”

Factor “committed & likeable”Factor “committed & likeable”

Factor “unpredictable”Factor “unpredictable”

Factor “aloof”Factor “aloof”

BoringBoring

UnpredictableUnpredictable

Factor “boring”Factor “boring”

Factor “future-oriented”Factor “future-oriented”

Dimension reduction of image-attributes to factors

-1

1

-1 1--- likeable & committed +++

---

alo

of

++

+

Zieloni is perceived as less competent & reliable than other parties

Significant differences

Competent & reliablePO – Zieloni, PiS – Zieloni, PSL - Zieloni

Boring -

Future-oriented -

Unpredictable -

Committed & likeable PO - SLD

Aloof -

Zieloni PSLPiS PO SLD

-1

1

-1 1--- competent & reliable +++

---

bori

ng +

++

-1

1

-1 1--- future-oriented +++

---

un

pre

dic

table

++

+

-1

1

-1 1--- committed to the people +++

---

alo

of

++

+Zieloni is not perceived differently by different voter-groups

Don‘t know PiS-Voter PO-Voter

-1

1

-1 1--- competent & reliable +++

---

bori

ng +

++

-1

1

-1 1--- future-oriented & likeable +++

---

un

pre

dic

table

++

+

Significant differences

Competent & reliable -

Boring -

Future-oriented -

Unpredictable PiS-voter – don’t know

Committed & likeable -

Aloof -

Not significant Image factors

boring

Competence & reliability are decisive to vote for a party

Zieloni Leader (Top-performer) Worst performer

To be voted it is important

to be seen as competent &

reliable bad starting

position for Zieloni 2004

To be voted it is important

to be seen as competent &

reliable bad starting

position for Zieloni 2004

0

1

-1 1- - - performance +++

---

imp

ort

an

ce +

++

competent & reliable

committed & likeable

¹ not unpredictable

1 1

future-oriented

22

2

aloof

A Green party should necessarily stand for environment – just for 5% also for other topics

81% mentioned only environmental topics

5% environmental and other topics

3% only other topics

81% mentioned only environmental topics

5% environmental and other topics

3% only other topics


4%

1%

1%

2%

3%

4%

82%

Social Specific

Anti-Globalism

Economy general

Infrastructure

Climate, climate change

Eco-farming

Preserving natural environment (incl. greeneducation)

4%

4%

11%

86%

Social issues

Economy

Don't know

Environment

0,0%

0,2%

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

1,1%

1,1%

1,5%

2,4%

3,9%

10,5%

20,0%

65,6%

PPP

SDPL

PD

RP

Zieloni 2004

other

LPR

SLD

PiS

PO

PSL

PK

don't know

Only 0,3% perceive Zieloni 2004 as „Green“

n = 1.642

• Green parties should necessarily stand for environment But:

• Low awareness of the Zieloni 2004 within Green Potential (34%)

• Zieloni 2004 is not perceived as a “Green” party• Low competence regarding environmental issues is

attributed to the Zieloni

Discrepancy between Zieloni 2004 and a “Green” party

• Green parties should necessarily stand for environment But:

• Low awareness of the Zieloni 2004 within Green Potential (34%)

• Zieloni 2004 is not perceived as a “Green” party• Low competence regarding environmental issues is

attributed to the Zieloni

Discrepancy between Zieloni 2004 and a “Green” party

Conclusion/possible approaches

Principles: Environment has to become decisive for the voting decision

Communication:Environmental matters

and economic goals need not to be a contrast

Competences:Build up “green” core

competences Aim: create Aim: create

awareness, build up awareness, build up competences & exploit competences & exploit

Green potentialGreen potential

Image:Content has to be

communicated in a competent & reliable

manner

Create awareness and a “green” perception within the population

Detailed EU-mood

Of those who completely agree that Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU, most think that …

• Poland should not leave the EU (95%)• the European Elections are important (82%)• the EU should not stop enlargement (66%), but also that• protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relationships with the EU (71%)• there should not be made more decisions on EU level than on national level (57%)

Of those who are completely of the opinion that protecting Poland’s own interests at the international level is more important than good relations with the EU, most think that …

• there should not be made more decisions on EU level than on national level (67%), but also that• Poland should not leave the EU (84%)• Poland has benefited from being member of the EU (81%)• European Elections are important (74%) - but not a good opportunity to protest against the national

government (52%)• EU should not stop enlargement (58%)

Of those who absolutely think that the EU should stop enlargement, most think that …• protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relationships with the EU (87%), but also that• Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU (78%)• Poland should not leave the EU (77%)• European Elections are important (73%) - but not a good opportunity to protest against the national

government (52%)

Of those who totally see the European Elections as a good opportunity to protest against the national government, most think that …

• EU should not stop enlargement (56%), but also that• protecting Poland’s interests are more important than good relationships with the EU (81%)

Detailed EU-mood

Of those who totally believe, that more decisions should be made on EU level than on a national level, most think that …

• Poland should not leave the EU (87%)• Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU (86%)• European Elections are a good opportunity to protest against the national government (57%), but also that• protecting Poland’s interests is more important than good relations with the EU (79%)

Of those who totally agree that the European Elections are not important, most think that …• Poland has benefited from being a member of the EU (77%)• Poland should not leave the EU (75%)• EU should not stop enlargement (55%), but also that• protecting Poland‘s interests is more important than good relations with the EU (87%)

Of those who totally agree that Poland should leave the EU, most think that …• protecting Poland‘s own interests is more important than good relations with the EU (88%)• there should not be made more decisions on EU level than on national level (73%)• EU should stop enlargement (63%)• Poland has not benefited from being a member of the EU (54%), but also that• European Elections are important (56%)

Analysis of potential and actual supporters of “green” issues - Poland

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