ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES OF PAKISTAN

Graduate School of Water Resources

Analysis of Floods in Pakistan due to the Climate Change in Pakistan

Graduate School of Water Resources

Muhammad Shoaib (Student # 2015730558)Amartaivan Baranchuluun(Student # 2015730417)

Where there is Water, there is Life, Love and Happiness

And Then Something Started Changing forever

(Edwin L. Drake)

Up until 1859, oil had been gathered by collecting whatever had seeped through to the surface — known drilling methods were deemed too dangerous. On August 28, 1859, George Bissell and Edwin L. Drake made the first successful use of a drilling rig on a well drilled especially to produce oil, at a site on Oil Creek near Titusville, Pennsylvania.

(www.businessinsider.com)

(Collecting oil from Water Surface)

The successful Oil exploration method discovery brought a revolution in the world. The vision of the world changed. The polices were changed. Thousands of oil well drilling started world wide. People started calling it as a

“BLACK GOLD”.

Why Petroleum is so important…?????

1 barrel oil = 158.98 liters Energy contains in one barrel oil

= 6.1 Gigajoules (5.8 million BTUs) 6.1

Gigajoules (5.8 million BTUs) = 25,000 hours of human labor

1 barrel oil will approximately move this truck for 800 KMs.

If there were no oil, it would take 25 people to push it every day for 8 hours non stop for 125 days to move it 800 KM.

A simple example ……

But……………..Nothing is free; when you gain something you have to loss to some ;Universal FactAlkanes

Complete combustion of Alkanes

Energy arrives from the sun in the form of visible light and ultraviolet radiation. 

"

According to an ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)…the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) .

Impact of Climate Change Glaciers and snow cover have decreased

in regions both in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, which has contributed to the rise of sea levels

Average Arctic temperatures increased by nearly twice the global average rate over the last 100 years (the IPCC also noted that Arctic temperatures have are highly variable from decade to decade).

The area covered by frozen ground in the Arctic has decreased by approximately 7 percent since 1900, with seasonal decreases of up to 15 percent.

Precipitation has increased in eastern regions of the Americas, northern Europe and parts of Asia; other regions such as the Mediterranean and southern Africa have experienced drying trends

Droughts are more intense, have lasted longer and covered larger areas than in the past.

Courtesy IPC Secretariats/ World Meteorological Organization

(Photo Courtesy., Gary Braasch)

(Photo Courtesy ., Yousaf Nazar Staff of Pakistan)

As average temperatures in regions across the country have gone up, more rain has fallen during the heaviest downpours.

This happens because warmer air holds more moisture. This fact is apparent when you see water vapor hanging in the air after turning off a hot shower. When warm air holding moisture meets cooler air, the moisture condenses into tiny droplets that float in the air. If the drops get bigger and become heavy enough, they fall as precipitation. 

If the emissions that cause global warming continue unabated, scientists expect the amount of rainfall during the heaviest precipitation events across country to increase more than 40 percent by the end of the century.Courtesy .,Union of Concerned Scientists  (www.uscusa.org)

How Climate Change contribute in Floods………?

Study Area

In 2003, Sindh province was badly affected when above normal monsoon rainfall caused flooding in the province. At least 484 people died and some 4,476 villages in the province were affected.

In 2007, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and coastal Baluchistan were badly affected due to monsoon rainfall. At least 130 people died and 2,000 were displaced.

In 2010, almost all of Pakistan was affected when massive flooding caused by record breaking rains hit Khyber and Punjab. At least 2,000 people died in this flood and almost 20 million people were affected by it.

In September 2011, at least 361 people were killed, some 5.3 million people and 1.2 million homes affected as well 1.7 million acres of arable land inundated when massive floods swept across the province of Sindh as a result of monsoon rains.

In September 2012, more than 100 people died, and thousands of homes destroyed, with thousands of acres of arable land affected when intense rainfall battered Khyber Pukhtunkhwa, Southern Punjab and Upper Sindh. As a result of monsoon rains.

In September 2014 Due to massive rain in Jammu and Kashmir as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir and in Punjab [9]

 Constituted flood situation in River Chanab and River Jhelum.

Major Floods in Pakistan

Pakistan Floods 2010

Pakistan's monsoon rains normally emanate from moisture swept in over India from the Bay of Bengal. In typical years, the rains open up in the east, centered on Punjab province, roughly near the cities of Lahore and Faisalabad. Experts say the rains then migrate northwest, dissipating by the time they reach the capital, Islamabad, and ending in scattered rains before dying out in Afghanistan.

But for the past few decades, PMD officials have noticed that the center of Pakistan's monsoon has been gradually shifting to the northwest, away from the nation's watershed in Punjab.

The dominant component of the climate variations was spatial shifts in the rainfall patterns, associated with fluctuations in the general circulation of the atmosphere in the region (Rodo, 2003).

"Over the past 25 to 30 years, there is a latitudinal redistribution," Khan explained. "Previously, in the past, our flooding was in these river systems [in Punjab], but ... the rainfall has shifted. Its main focus has changed from the eastern parts to the western parts.“

Courtesy Publishing, LLC. www.eenews.ne

Theories behind the flooding in Pakistan.

Necessity One of the very important necessities of research into climate change is to analyzeand detect historical changes in the climatic system (Houghton et al., 1996).Rainfall is a principal element of the hydrological cycle, hence understandingits behavior may be of profound social and economic significance. Detectionof trends and oscillations in the rainfall time series yields important informationfor understanding the climate.

Proposal Keeping in view the present flooding in Pakistan, it is important to analyze the main reason behind the flooding in Pakistan.In our project we will work on two aspects.1. Either it is increase in precipitation or glacial snow melt that

contribute major factor in flooding of Pakistan.2. Analysis of Monsoon Shift.

The Climatic Research Unit (CRU) is a component of the University of East Anglia and is one of the leading institutions concerned with the study of natural and anthropogenic climate change.

Activities At the time of its establishment the CRU set out

four key aims, which still remain valid: To establish firmer knowledge of the history of

climate in the recent and distant past. To monitor and report on current climatic

developments on a global scale. To identify the processes (natural and man-made) at

work in climatic fluctuations and the characteristic timescales of their evolution.

To investigate the possibilities of making advisory statements about future trends of weather and climate from a season to many years ahead, based on acceptable scientific methods and in a form likely to be useful for long-term planning purposes.

(http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/)

1. Data CollectionMonthly rainfall data of Pakistan will be collected from the Global GriddedClimatology of Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS 3.23) presentedat a new high resolution and made available by the Climate Impacts LINKproject, Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.

2.Data Analysis1. Descriptive statistics of annual rainfall.2. Normality tests will be used to determine whether a dataset can be described by a normal distribution or not, or to compute how likely an underlying random variable is to be normally distributed.3. Analysis of precipitation shift during monsoon. 3.Result and Conclusion

References Hydrology Time Series Analysis: Theory and PracticeBy Deepash MachiwalMadam Kumar JhaWater Resources andClimate ChangeKenneth FrederickGLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGE AND PAKISTAN’SWATER-RESOURCESImtiaz Ahmed*Ashrit, R.G., Kumar, R. and Kumar, K.K. (2001). ENSO-monsoon relationship ingreenhouse warming scenario. Geophysical Research Letters, 28: 1727-1730.Beniston, M. and Stephenson, D.B. (2004). Extreme climatic events and their evolutionunder changing climatic conditions. Global and Planetary Change, 44: 1-9.

The trans boundary Indus river basin has a total area of 1.12 million km2distributed between Pakistan (47 percent), India (39 percent), China (8 percent) and Afghanistan (6 percent) .

The Indus river basin stretches from the Himalayan mountains in the north to the dry alluvial plains of Sindh province in Pakistan in the south and finally flows out into the Arabian Sea.

Annual precipitation ranges between 100 and 500 mm in the lowlands to a maximum of 2 000 mm on mountain slopes. Snowfall at higher altitudes (above 2 500 m) accounts for most of the river runoff (Ojeh, 2006)

(Indus River in Blue Line)

Indus River…

2010 Floods in Pakistan

Study Area Begins …

Sindh Flood 2003

Half-degree cell series of precipitationCRU TS Version: 3.23 Units: mm/month

Half-degree cell series of precipitationCRU TS Version: 3.23 Units: mm/month

WHY KARAKORAM GLACIERS ARE NOT MELTING?

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydro climate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. 

Karakoram is a large mountain range spanning the borders between Pakistan, India and China, located in the regions of Gilgit–Baltistan (Pakistan), Ladakh (India), and southern Xinjiang (China).

KARAKORAM GLACIER IS GROWING…

How & Why?

GFLDL – CM2.5 MODEL Simulated snowfall show uniform significant annual

snowfall reductions across the region over the historical record and future climate.

As a result, they can find changes in the mean climate, but it is difficult to assess the significance of their findings and signal emergence without continuous data.

Here we approach this problem using a combination of observations and a unique multi-ensemble experiment using a 50-km-resolution GCM to explore the region’s seasonal cycle and climate change signals across space and time to identify the potential meteorological constraints on the hydro climate of high-mountain Asia.

a, CM2.5 elevation with three regions of interest defined by grid cells in each box above 2,500 m a.s.l. (non-greyscale): northwest Himalaya and Karakoram; central Himalaya; southeast Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau. 

b, Mean CM2.5 annual snowfall.  c–n, Regional seasonal cycles:

CM2.5 ensemble-averaged mean, CMIP5 mean and 1 standard deviation range (1966–2005). 

f–h, APHRODITE and TRMM (1998–2007) total precipitation. 

c,f, Pakistan station data (1960–2007) 

The team notes that their model shows that the total amount of precipitation along most of the chain is increasing as the planet heats up, during the summer months. In the Karakoram, on the other hand, there is less snowfall in the summer, but more in the winter—thus the continued growing of the glaciers. Their model suggests that the glaciers are likely to continue to persist in that part of the world, right on up to 2100—after that, it doesn't appear likely—not if global warming continues at its current.

Analysis of Floods in Pakistan due to the Climate Change in Pakistan

• Proposal• Data Collection & Study • Methodology• Conclusion

Muhammad Shoaib (Student # 2015730558) Amartaivan Baranchuluun (Student # 2015730417)

Graduate School of Water Resources

Methodology As the Indus River flows starts from China and through Northern Pakistan it flows through whole Pakistan and then through Southern Pakistan it flows in Arabian Sea.

(We started our observation from this point)

(Blue Line in the picture is Indus River)

First we study the temperature of this region from 1960-2014.Then we study the precipitation of this region from 1960-2014.

Assumptions:• In case of Temperature, the Mean

Temperature of the year considered & the chosen point was 50 square Kilometer. However, the area around the region shows almost the same pattern, graphically.

• In case of Precipitation, the Mean Precipitation of the Monsoon Season considered.

TemperatureLocation: Centre Latitude: 31.25 Centre Longitude: 81.75 Data: CRU TS Version: 3.23 Units: degrees C

Normality Tests The following Numerical and Visual outputs must be investigated: 1. ------Skewness & Kutosis z-values must be in the span of somewhere between -1.96 to +1.96

To find the z-value we divide the measure by its Std. ErrorIn our case z-value of Skewness is = -.280/.322 = -0.86 In our case z-value of Kurtosis is = -.807/.634 = -1.27

2.The Shapiro- Wilk Test P value must be above 0.05

3. Histograms, Normal Q-Q plots and Box Plot should visually indicate that our data is normal

In our case .139 > 0.05

Conclusion:

The temperature in this region and its surrounding is approximately normally distributed over the last 44 years.

Precipitation

(Then we study the precipitation in this region from (1960-2014))

Location:Centre Latitude: 31.75Centre Longitude: 80.25

Skewness z-value = .309/.322 = 0.95 Kutosis z-value = -.867/.634 = 1.367

Visual Tests

Conclusion:

The Mean precipitation of the year is approximately normally distributed in this region from (1960-2014).

Study Area 2

(Then we moved inside Pakistan and study the behavior of this area) Location: Centre Latitude: 33.25 Centre Longitude: 72.75

1.Precipitation

Skewness z-value = 1.145/.322 = 3.55Kurtosis z-value = 1.693/.634 = 2.67

Shakiro-Wilk P value is also less than 0.05

Conclusion:The mean Monsoon precipitation is not normally distributed in this region from 1960-2014

Y = 1.252(2025)-2269.1 = 266.2 mm/monthY = 1.252(2050)-2269.1 = 297.5 mm/monthY = 1.252(2100)-2269.1 = 360.1 mm/month

Study Area 3

(Then we study southern Pakistan )

Location: Centre Latitude: 27.75 Centre Longitude: 68.75

1.Precipitation

Skewness z-value = 1.701/.322 = 5.82Kurtosis z-value = 2.910/.634 = 4.58

The Shapiro-Wilk P value is less than 0.05 , its .000

Conclusion:

The mean monsoon precipitation is not normally distributed in this region. Furthermore many outliers observed.

Y=0.1953(2025)-355.76 = 39.722Y=0.1953(2050)-355.76 = 44.605Y= 0.1953(2100)-355.76 = 54.37

Causes of increased precipitation in Monsoon Season

The flooding event is one apparently due to intensification of the water cycle – a common pattern seen in climate modeling as global temperatures increase – causing an increase in atmospheric humidity and precipitation.

Deforestation is the removal of a forest or stand of trees where the land is there after converted to a non forest use.Pakistan is known to have one of the highest rates of deforestation in the world.

Only 5% of Pakistan is now occupied by forest due to excessive timber harvesting.Due to the lack of vegetation to intercept the precipitation, flooding occurred

Deforestation

Conclusion 1. There is an insignificant change in the temperature and the precipitation in North-East of Pakistan from (1960-2014) from where the Indus river starts. Furthermore, the research conducted by (Mendeleyev ,..2014) shows the Karakoram glaciers are not melting. Therefore we can assume that melting of glacier didn’t contribute in Pakistan floods.2.The study shows that in North of Pakistan the precipitation in Monsoon season have increased over the span of last 44 year’s and the graphs suggest that it will increase significantly by the end of this century. And the increased precipitation in this and its surrounding have contributed mostly in Pakistan floods. However the change of temperature in this region is insignificant.3.The study of southern Pakistan shows that the pattern of precipitation is irregular in this region in last 44 years. However, the mean precipitation was very low and it doesn’t indicate that this precipitation contributed in floods. Temperature change in this region is also insignificant.

In order to avoid such consequences again in the future; the Pakistan Gov. should research and find a way to minimize the flood damage in the future. They should build more dams and re-forestation should be among the top priority of the country.

References Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Lister, D.H. (2014), Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology 34, 623-642Cramer.D. (1998) “Fundamental statistic for social research”. London: Routledge. Cramer.D & Howwit.D (2004) “The SAGE dictionary of statistics”. London:SAGEDoane.D.P & Seward.L.E (2011) “Measuring Skewness”. Journal of statistical education. 19(2), 1-18.Razali.N.M & Wah.Y.B (2011). Power comparisons for Shapiro-Wilk; Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Lilliefors and Anderson-Darling tests. Journal of Statistical Modeling and Analytics. (2)1 21-23Shapiro.S.S & Wilk.M.B (1965) “An Analysis of Variance Test for Normality”. (Complete samples) Biometrika 52(3/4) 591-611