Analysis of 78704 Data

Analysis of Residence Sales Data by FormZIP Code 78704

Paul Schumann

Data Variables (2015)

● Form (Condo, Single Family, Duplex, Townhouse)

● Address● MLS#● Price● Square Feet● Price per Square Foot● Year Built

April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 3

Summary● Data provided by Ed Wendler Jr.

● Analysis by Paul Schumann using:

– Watson Analytics*

– Open Calc

● Price is a function of year built.

● Average price for condos, duplexes and townhouses are almost the same, and lower than single family.

– However, averages are misleading.

– Price is a function of year built, but also a function of size of the residence.

● Price is exponentially related to size of residence for all forms, with a lower limit of ~$200K.

* www.ibm.com/analytics/watson-analytics/us-en/


Summary (continued)● Price is increasing for all forms built after 1960.

● Size of residence is increasing with year built and there is little differentiation in size by form for modern construction.

● Price per square foot is also and function of time built, form and size of residence.

● Average price per square foot is essentially the same for condos, duplexes and townhouses and higher for single family residences.

– However, averages are misleading because of the dependence on size of residence.

● For residences priced lower than $400K:

– Price and price per square foot are strongly related to year built and size of residence.

– Condos built in the 1960s and 1970s are now selling for less (and less per square foot) than townhouses and duplexes, modern condos, duplexes and townhouses are all selling for nearly the same price and price per square foot.


Conclusions

● Given the existing market conditions in 78704 together with contextual factors such as transportation and prevailing construction costs, standards and technology, affordability cannot be practically achieved through density increases using newly constructed condos, duplexes and townhouses (without financial incentives).

Size (square feet)

Price* Income Required**

Percent of Median Income***

1,000 $350,000 $108,000 169%

857 $300,000 $92,000 144%

714 $250,000 $77,000 120%

571 $200,000 $61,000 95%

429 $150,000 $46,000 72%

* Based on average price per square foot currently ($350) for residences less than $400,000** Calculator.net, using approximately payments equal to 30% of income, 2.4% IR, 30 year, 10% down payment, no other debt*** Using median income of $64,000

Reference: http://www.calculator.net/house-affordability-calculator.html

Note: Price per square foot is probably not a constant over this range of sizes. It will probably increase for smaller sizes.


Conclusions (continued)

● Price per square foot is a function of year built (age), form (single family, condo,duplex, townhouse), and size (square feet)

● Price is a function of price per square foot, size (square feet) and year built (age).


Recommendations● Perform this type of analysis on enough ZIP codes in Austin to satisfy

statistical significance

● Investigate and recommend financial incentive programs

– Developer

– Residence owner

– Residence buyer

● Investigate and recommend actions to utilize existing residences that have aged

● Investigate and recommend new construction practices, standards and technologies to lower cost per square foot

– Manufactured

– Modular

– Kit

– Volunteered construction


Recommendations (continued)

● Investigate and recommend polices and standards for mini homes (tiny, micro, small) and mini home villages(with and without shared services).

● Develop analytic relationships between variables, and multi dimensional displays of data.


Price Analysis (1882 - 2015)

Note: All the graphs appearing in this form came from Watson Analytics. I had to darken the background to make the numbers visible.


Price (1882 - 2015)

<$200K$200K- $400K

$400K-$600K$600K-$800K

$800K-$1M$1M-$1.2M

$1.2M-$1.4M$1.4M-$1.6M

$1.6M-$1.8M$1.8M-$2M

$2M-$2.2M$2.2M-$2.4M

$2.4M-$2.6M$2.6M-$2.8M

$2.8M-$3M>$3M

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

78704

SF

Townhouse

Duplex

Condo

Price

Nu

mb

er

of H

ou

se

s

1,740

1,727

2,325

1,054


Condo Price (1960 - 2015)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Condo

Price

Linear (Price)

Price Predict

Price Cal

Year Built

Pri

ce


Duplex Price (1960 - 2015)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

Duplex

Price

Price Cal

Linear (Price Cal)

Price Predict

Year

Pri

ce


All Forms (< $2M)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 50000

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000f(x) = 216954.09 exp( 0 x )

78704

Square Feet

Pri

ce


Price and Square Feet by Form


All Forms (<= $400K)

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

78704

Condo

SF

Duplex

Townhouse

Square Feet

Pri

ce


Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015)


Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015)

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,6000

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

78704

SF

Townhouse

Condo

Duplex

Price per Sq Ft

Nu

mb

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of H

ou

se

s


All Forms (1882 - 2015)

Form Price (average) Price/Sq Ft (average)

Condo $369K $350

Duplex $561K $324

SF $1,045K $466

Townhouse $549K $318


Condo (1960 - 2015)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600Condo

$/Ft.

Linear ($/Ft.)

$/Ft Predict

$/Ft Cal

Year

Pri

ce p

er

Sq

. Ft.


Duplex (1960-2015)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

Duplex

Sq. Ft.

Linear (Sq. Ft.)

$/Ft Cal

$/Ft Predict

Year

Pri

ce p

er

Sq

Ft


Low Price (<$400K) and Year Built by Form


Low Price Square Feet and Year Built by Form


Low Price per Square Foot and Square Feet by Year Built


Low Price per Square Foot vs. Square Feet

400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

78704

Low Priced

$/Ft.

Linear ($/Ft.)

Square Feet

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ua

re F

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Low Price per Square Feet and Square Feet by Form

400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 18000

100

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78704

Low Priced

Condo

Duplex

SF

Townhouse

Square Feet

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Low Price Square Feet by Decade Built

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

200

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78704

Low Priced

Decade

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Low Price Price per Square Foot by Decade Built

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

100

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78704

Low Priced

Decade

Pri

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Analysis of 78704 Data

Government & Nonprofit

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