Analysis fo Consumption

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An Analysis of Changing FoodConsumption Pattern in India

A research paper prepared under the projectAgricultural Outlook and Situation Analysis Reports

National Council of Applied Economic ResearchParisila ha!an" ##" I$P Estate" Ne! %elhi


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An Analysis of Changing FoodConsumption Pattern in India

National Council of Applied Economic ResearchNe! %elhi

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An Analysis of Changing Food Consumption Pattern in India

Introduction

Economic growth is typically accompanied by improvements in a country’s food supply, bothquantitative and qualitative, and a gradual reduction in nutritional deficiencies. It also bringsabout changes in the production, processing, distribution and marketing of food. Diets evolveover time and are influenced by factors such as income, prices, individual preferences and

beliefs, cultural traditions, as well as geographical, environmental, social and economicfactors.

This paper e amines the evolving food consumption pattern in India over the past two

decades due to income induced diet diversification, impact of globali!ation, increasingurbani!ation and changing lifestyle of people. The trend in calorie, protein and fat intake inthe Indian diet is analy!ed and comparison is made of the trend in nutrient intake in Indiawith that of "hina and the #nited $tates, which are at different growth stages. This will behelpful to draw some conclusion about the likely emerging food demand scenario for India infuture. %ational $ample $urvey "onsumer E penditure $urvey results & and the '() 'ood*alance $heet data + are the ma or data sources of the study. (s the average per capita foodconsumption is derived from all India data and not from state level data and from -onthly

er capita "onsumer E penditure /- "E0 groups, they may not correspond to actual per capita availability by various income groups. 'urthermore, the '() 'ood *alance data refer to 1average food available for consumption2, which, for a number of reasons, is not equal toaverage food intake or average food consumption. 3ence in this report the terms 1foodconsumption2 or 1food intake2 and 1nutrient intake2 using the '() data should be treated as1food available for consumption2.

Consumers &ecoming choosy

India’s impressive economic growth over the past two decades and a more inclusive growthin recent years have resulted in per capita income steadily increasing in real terms as well asat market prices both in urban and rural areas.

'a&le#$ Per Capita Income (ro!th during the Study Period

(vg. &4567&44+ (vg. &4487&444 (vg. +9997+99: (vg. +99;7+994(t +99:79; prices +.4 :.< 8.4 6.&(t "urrent prices &8.9 &+.5 5.9 &8.4

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2 http=>>faostat8.fao.org>faostat7gateway>go>to>download>'*>C>Ehttp=>>www.fao.org>docrep>998> 454+e> 454+e9&.htm

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"onsistent with the overall economic growth, the share of consumer spending on food hasdeclined. (ccording to some studies, the proportion of e penditure on food items over allincome groups has declined by about &9 percentage points in the rural areas and by about &<

percentage points in the urban areas between &456755 and +9947&9 8. 3owever, the income7induced diet diversification has resulted in consumers moving away from inferior cerealssuch as owar and ba ra to superior grains such as wheat and rice /'igure I.(. and I.*0 andmore recently from cereals to high value food products such as milk, egg, meat, and fruitsand vegetables a natural corollary to the negative income elasticity for cereals in India and

positive income elasticity for high quality food. The change is occurring both among ruraland urban households. )ther factors contributing to the change in the consumption pattern isthe increasing urbani!ation. During the most recent decade globalisation has also played animportant role in the transformation of food consumption patterns of Indian households.There has been a significant increase in imports of fresh fruits such as apple, dry fruits suchas almonds and processed food products following removal of trade restrictions.

Figure I$A$ 'rend in Cereal Consumption ) Rural *+gs$ ,year-

1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100

2040

6080

100120140160180200

Rice Wheat C.Grains

Figure I$ $ 'rend in Cereal Consumption ) .r&an *+gs$ ,year-

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1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100

20

40

6080

100

120

140

160

Rice Wheat C.Grains

$ource= Farious Gounds of "onsumer E penditure $urvey, %$$

Consumption 'rend &y Commodities

Rice = er capita rice consumption in rural households declined from about 58 kgs in &456755to 59 kgs in &4447+999 and more rapidly to 68 kgs in +9947&9. ( similar trend was noticed inthe urban households where per capita rice consumption declined from


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/heat0 The trend in wheat consumption shows a similar pattern as that of rice but at a lessspectacular rate. er capita consumption in rural households after remaining more or lessunchanged at around ;: kgs>year during &45745 to &444799 declined to slightly below ;+ kgsin +9947&9. In urban households, the decline was more significant from around ;: kgs toaround ;9 kgs. The reason could be increased consumption of wheat products such as bread,

biscuits, and noodles etc. which are not included in the %$$ wheat consumption data.

Figure II$ $ 'rends in Per Capita /heat Consumption

1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

f(x) = - 0.72x 54.93R! = 0.56f(x) = - 0.83x 55.24R! = 0.51

Coarse grains0 The decline in coarse grain consumption during the study period was morespectacular than in the case of wheat and rice, both in rural and urban households. Hithrising income, consumers have shifted from coarse grains, considered as inferior gains, tosuperior grains such as rice and wheat. er capita consumption declined from around 85kilograms in &456755 to &8 kgs in +9947&9 in rural households and from &4 kgs to 4 kgs inurban households. 3owever, the decline in human consumption of coarse cereals has resultedin larger availability of feed gains to the poultry and livestock sector, which has registered asignificant growth in recent years.

Figure II$ C$ 'rends in Per Capita Coarse (rains Consumption

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1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

f(x) = - 5.79x 41.05R! = 0.94

f(x) = - 2.12x 18.83R! = 0.75

R"ra# $inear (R"ra#) %r&an $inear (%r&an)

Kgs./Year

Pulses0 er capita pulse consumption after showing an upward trend during &456755 through&4447+999 has shown a generally declining trend since then despite increasing consumer income as the price effect on demand has apparently outstripped the income effect. imitedavailability of pulses in the global market has also limited consumption. er capitaconsumption in urban households declined from &+ kgs in &444799 to 4.< kgs in +9947&9 andfrom &9 kgs to 5 kgs in rural households.

Figure II$ %$ 'rends in Per Capita Pulses Consumption

1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Kgs./Year

Edi&le oils0 Edible oil consumption has shown a steady upward trend both in rural and urban

households with per capita consumption increasing from : kgs to 6.6 kgs>year in rural areasand from


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Figure II$ E$ 'rends in Per Capita Edi&le Oils Consumption

1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

f(x) = 0.88x 3R! = 0.9

f(x) = 0.8x 5.63R! = 0.81

R"ra# $inear (R"ra#) %r&an $inear (%r&an)

The composition of oils in the consumption basket has changed drastically over the past twodecades with palm oil and soybean oil emerging as the ma or oils consumed due to lager imports because of lower international prices. %evertheless, rapeseed>mustard oil continuedto remain as the largest vegetable oil consumed in India.

Figure II$ F$ Changes in the Composition of Edi&le Oils in Consumption

' a&ean *i#+ 9,

Gr "n n"t *i#+ 32,

'"n /er see *i#+ 5,Ra esee an "star *i#+ 26,

C tt nsee *i#+ 7,

a# *i#+ 5,

*ther *i#s+ 16,

1987-93

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' a&ean *i#+ 17,

Gr "n n"t *i#+ 16,

'"n /er see *i#+ 6,

Ra esee an "star *i#+ 23,

C tt nsee *i#+ 7,

a# *i#+ 19,

*ther *i#s+ 12,

2005-09

1ilk0 ( significant increase in per capita milk consumption has taken place during theanalysis period, both in rural and urban areas in response to increasing per capita income.The per capita milk consumption in rural households increased from 84 kgs>year in &456755to ;9 kgs in +9947&9, an increase of +5 per cent, whereas in urban households per capita

consumption increased from ;+ kgs to


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1eat Poultry and Egg0 (lthough consumption of mutton /goat and sheep meat0 registered adeclining trend during &456755 to +9947&9, more drastically in urban households than in ruralhouseholds, the decline was more than offset by the increase in poultry meat consumption.

oultry meat consumption registered an e ponential growth during this period, increasing

from +:9 grams to &.; kgs in rural households and +:9 grams to +.+ kgs in urban areas. Thehigher poultry meat consumption is attributed to larger supplies and its relatively lower pricesvis7a7vis mutton. The poultry sector has registered a significant growth during the pastdecade due to introduction of improved breeding stocks, larger availability of feed stockssuch as mai!e and soybean meal, and better marketing infrastructure. er capita consumptionof eggs also registered a significant growth over the past decades increasing from about <eggs per year in &456755 to +& eggs in +9947&9 in rural households and from &6 eggs to 8+eggs during the corresponding period in urban households. 'ish consumption has alsoregistered a steady increase during the period.

Figure II$ 2$ 'rends in Per Capita Consumption of 1eat" Egg and Fish

1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.000.200.40

0.600.801.001.201.401.601.80

f(x) = - 0.05x 0.83

R! = 0.39

f(x) = - 0.14x 1.65R! = 0.7

Mutton

R"ra# $inear (R"ra#)%r&an $inear (%r&an)

Kgs./Year

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1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

f(x) = 0.12 ex ( 0.45 x )R! = 0.91

f(x) = 0.13 ex ( 0.54 x )R! = 0.99

Chicken

R"ra# x nentia# (R"ra#)%r&an x nentia# (%r&an)

Kgs,/Year

1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

5.00

10.00

15.0020.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

f(x) = 3.39x 1.96R! = 0.86

f(x) = 3.31x 12.85R! = 0.71

Eggs

R"ra# $inear (R"ra#) %r&an$inear (%r&an) $inear (%r&an)

Kgs./Year

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1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

f(x) = 0.29x 1.61R! = 0.84f(x) = 0.17x 2R! = 0.79

Fish

R"ra# $inear (R"ra#)

%r&an $inear (%r&an)

Kgs./Year

Potato" Onion" and anana0 er capita vegetable and fruit consumption in general hasregistered a significant growth in the past in response to increasing per capita income.(mong vegetables, this study has focussed only on potato and onions, the ma or ones, andamong fruits only on banana.

er capita onion consumption recorded a steady upward trend both in rural and urban area

during the study period. In rural households per capita onion consumption almost doubledfrom :.< kgs to 4 kgs and in urban households from


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1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.0010.00

12.00

f(x) = 1x 3.62R! = 0.91

f(x) = 1.06x 4.99R! = 0.94

nion



Kgs./Year

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1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

f(x) = 1.29x 13.22R! = 0.58f(x) = 0.7x 12.54R! = 0.48

!otato



Kgs./Year

1987-88 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 2009-100.00

20.0040.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

f(x) = 4.49x 18.19R! = 0.66

f(x) = 3.36x 51.66R! = 0.21

"anana



#u$%ers/Year

.Are Indians Eating etter No!3

It would be interesting to see how the change in the nature of food consumption pattern hasaffected the nutrient intake in the Indian diet as the process of diet transformation has far7reaching consequences for public health. Hhile an increase in the consumption of milk,animal protein and fruits and vegetables could result in reduced incidence of malnutrition, anincreased consumption of highly7calorific and fatty food could lead to increased incidenceobesity and of diet7related diseases, like diabetes, coronary heart disease. The '() 'ood*alance $heet is used to analy!e the trend in macro nutrient /calorie, protein, and fat0 intakein India. The following chart shows the annual trend in all the three nutrients from which itappears that while calories and protein intake remained static or registered a modest growth,increase in fats consumption was more significant.

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Figure II$ I$ 'rends in Per Capita Consumption of Calories" Protein and Fats

1 9 8 7

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2050.0

2100.0

2150.0

2200.0

2250.0

2300.0

2350.0

2400.0

r tein Gr a $inear ( r tein Gr a ) at Gr a

$inear ( at Gr a ) Ca# rie Ca# a $inear (Ca# rie Ca# a )

!rotein/Fat '(a$s/)a*+ K Ca ories/)a*

Calorie Intake 'rend

Despite the changing diet pattern in India over the years, the overall calorie intake hasregistered only a modest increase from an average ++;9 J "alories during &4567&448 to +8&9J "alories during +99;7+9&9. ( decline in calorie intake from vegetable based food, moreimportantly from cereal7based food, was more than offset by increased calorie intake fromanimal based food products.

Figure II$ 4$ 'rends in Composition of Calories0 Animal and 5egeta&le Products

&456748 &44:744 +99979: +99;7&99

;99

&999

&;99

+999

+;99

+ilo Calories 3%ay

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"alorie intake by type of food shows that the contribution of cereals and pulses combined hasdeclined from &;59 J. calories during &4567&448 to &:


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Figure II$ 6$ 'rends in Composition of Per Capita Calorie Intake &y 'ype of Food0 7 of Calorie Intake

Cerea#s + 65,"#ses+ 5,

'" ar+ 8,:e etae *i#s+ 7,

i#; + 4,eat ish+ 1,

:e taes


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Cerea#s + 61,

"#ses+ 5,

'" ar+ 9,

:e etae *i#s+ 8,

i#; + 4,eat ish+ 1,

:e taes


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calories, the decline in protein intake from vegetable sources was mostly offset by increasefrom animal sources.

Figure II$ 1$ 'rends in Per Capita Protein Intake &y Animal and 5egeta&le Sources0(rams,day

&456748 &44:744 +99979: +99;7&9

9.9

&9.9

+9.9

89.9

:9.9

;9.9


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&456748 &44:744 +99979: +99;7&9

9.9

&9.9

+9.9

89.9

:9.9

;9.9


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Cerea#s + 60,"#ses+ 12,

'" ar+ 0,

i#; + 11,

eat ish+ 6,

:e taes


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Cerea#s + 57,

"#ses+ 12,'" ar+ 0,i#; + 12,

eat ish+ 7,

:e taes


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& 4 4 &

& 4 4 +

& 4 4 8

& 4 4 :

& 4 4 ;

& 4 4 <

& 4 4 6

& 4 4 5

& 4 4 4

+ 9 9 9

+ 9 9 &

+ 9 9 +

+ 9 9 8

+ 9 9 :

+ 9 9 ;

+ 9 9 <

+ 9 9 6

+ 9 9 5

+ 9 9 4

9

;99

&999

&;99

+999

+;99

8999

8;99

:999

:;99

Calorie Consumption 'rend in India" China and the .$S$

India "hina #$(

+$Calories3%ay

& 4 4 &

& 4 4 +

& 4 4 8

& 4 4 :

& 4 4 ;

& 4 4 <

& 4 4 6

& 4 4 5

& 4 4 4

+ 9 9 9

+ 9 9 &

+ 9 9 +

+ 9 9 8

+ 9 9 :

+ 9 9 ;

+ 9 9 <

+ 9 9 6

+ 9 9 5

+ 9 9 4

9.9

+9.9

:9.9


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& 4 4 &

& 4 4 +

& 4 4 8

& 4 4 :

& 4 4 ;

& 4 4 <

& 4 4 6

& 4 4 5

& 4 4 4

+ 9 9 9

+ 9 9 &

+ 9 9 +

+ 9 9 8

+ 9 9 :

+ 9 9 ;

+ 9 9 <

+ 9 9 6

+ 9 9 5

+ 9 9 4

9.9

+9.9

:9.9


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Indian diet is diversifying with fruit>vegetable and animal7based food share increasing andcereal and pulses declining. The implication is that the implementation of the cereal7based

%ational 'ood $ecurity (ct will have only a limited impact in achieving the goal of providingnutritional security to the vulnerable section of the population. There is need to includehigher protein food such as pulses or protein7enriched cereals or cereal flours in the program.

It is worth mentioning that at present India is e porting a ma or share of its high proteinsoybean meal while the country is facing a protein7deficiency. Technology to incorporatesoybean products in the diet should be encouraged.

Despite large imports, the overall decline in per capita pulse consumption is also of concern.There is need to increase pulse production in the country as international availability of

pulses is limited.

Hith the rising level of income, per capita fat consumption is growing rapidly and the shareof vegetable oil in the overall calorie intake is increasing necessitating large imports. #nlessdomestic production increases the import requirement will continue to grow with rising per capita income.

India’s per capita calorie, protein, and fat consumption remains significantly below that of more developed countries such as "hina and the #nited $tates. The implication is that incoming years with rising per capita income and urbani!ation, India’s demand for varioussuperior food products will continue to increase necessitating a possible change in the food

production system and agricultural trade. The implications for the predominant small andmarginal farmers could be serious, unless there are incentives and policies that allow them toshift from subsistence agriculture and become more integrated in the global food market : .Deliberations on the potential of the food and agriculture sector to meet the demands andchallenges posed by this analysis and its implications for all components in the food chainwould be useful.

4 Pra&hu Pingali and 9asmeen +h!aja 8 (lo&alisation of Indian %iets and the 'ransformationof Food Supply Systems* ftp=>>ftp.fao.org>docrep>fao>996>ae9ae9


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References

&. rabhu ingali and Lasmeen Jhwa a 7 Mlobalisation of Indian Diets and the Transformationof 'ood $upply $ystems. 'ood and (griculture )rganisation 7 www.fao.org

+. 'ood and (griculture )rganisation 7 www.fao.org8. "entral $tatistical )rganisation 7 http=>>mospi.nic.in:. Directorate of Economics and $tatistics 7 http=>>eands.dacnet.nic.in;. Department of (griculture and "ooperation 7 www.agricoop.nic.in>cacp.dacnet.nic.in>6. Fi ay aul $harma, 'ood $ubsidy in India=Trends, "auses and olicy Geform

)ptions. H. . %o.+9&+79579+, (ugust, +9&+, Indian Institute of -anagement,(hmedabad.http=>>www.iimahd.ernet.in>assets>snippets>workingpaperpdf>;886

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