Analysis Examples and Analysis Examples and Issues: Identifying SourcesIssues: Identifying Sources

Policy Analysis Tools for Air Quality and Policy Analysis Tools for Air Quality and HealthHealth

A workshop hosted by NERAM and Pollution ProbeA workshop hosted by NERAM and Pollution Probe

Jeffrey R. Brook May 19, 2005Jeffrey R. Brook May 19, 2005

TORONTOTORONTO

Two Key Goals of AQ Two Key Goals of AQ Research:Research:

((for Policy Analysis)for Policy Analysis)• Improve understanding of health effectsImprove understanding of health effects

– main pollutants and/or sources of concernmain pollutants and/or sources of concern– quantify concentration-response functionsquantify concentration-response functions

• Identify main sources contributing to the Identify main sources contributing to the problemproblem– quantitative source apportionment with quantitative source apportionment with

uncertaintiesuncertainties– develop predictive AQ models and integrate develop predictive AQ models and integrate

with cost-benefit modelswith cost-benefit models

Turning Research into Turning Research into ResultsResults• Research seems to be "never-ending"Research seems to be "never-ending"

(and it could be)(and it could be)– How do we move forward in the near-term How do we move forward in the near-term

with practical solutions or applications with practical solutions or applications given incomplete information, given incomplete information, uncertainties or resistance to change?uncertainties or resistance to change?

– What's important for the long-term?What's important for the long-term?

• Detailed analysis of measurement Detailed analysis of measurement data provides useful insightdata provides useful insight– "receptor methods""receptor methods"

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

•Some examples of recent analyses Some examples of recent analyses of PM-related measurement dataof PM-related measurement data– Results that have relevance to AQ Results that have relevance to AQ

management (hopefully) management (hopefully) – Examples from basic to increasingly Examples from basic to increasingly

complex measurementscomplex measurements

•Final remarksFinal remarks

How much PMHow much PM2.52.5 is from local is from local emissions?emissions?

Toronto area 1998-2001 warm season concentrations all matched in time

Med

ian

six-

hour

PM

2.5 (

g/m

3 )

EGBERT

Decreasin

g

Regional

PM2.5

Estimating Regional Estimating Regional Background:Background:

Comparison of sitesComparison of sites

~18 g/m3

Local Contribution to Local Contribution to PMPM2.52.5::

Will local actions have an Will local actions have an impact?impact? SW Flow: Simcoe to Toronto SW Flow: Simcoe to Toronto

Emissions/formation in Toronto add about 4 g/m3 to the regional air mass (containing ~18 g/m3) before it arrives in North York

• 30-37% of fine particle concentrations in Toronto are locally produced

Source Areas Contributing to Source Areas Contributing to Warm Season PMWarm Season PM2.52.5

>ave

<ave

PMF Estimates of PMPMF Estimates of PM2.52.5 Sources - Sources - TorontoToronto

1.2 1.12.1

23

13

35

21

3.3 2.31.3

6

2.0

8

17

50

13

2.2 1.61.3

15

810

26

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Secondary

Coal

Ammonium

Nitrate

Vehicle /

Road dust

Vehicle /

NaCl

Organic

Acids

PMprimary-1 Smelter PMprimary-2

Mas

s %

Summer Winter Annual

Coal Combustion Ammonium Nitrate Motor Vehicles

Sec. org.

Identifying source types Identifying source types and quantifying their and quantifying their contributions to PM:contributions to PM:

• Formulate conceptual model Formulate conceptual model • Compile emission inventory Compile emission inventory • Characterize source emissions Characterize source emissions • Analyze ambient samples for mass, Analyze ambient samples for mass,

elements, ions, and carbon and other elements, ions, and carbon and other components from sources components from sources

• Confirm source types with Confirm source types with multivariate modelmultivariate model

• Quantify source contributions Quantify source contributions

Identifying source types Identifying source types and quantifying their and quantifying their contributions to PM:contributions to PM:• Estimate profile changes and limiting Estimate profile changes and limiting

precursorsprecursors• Apply source-oriented models Apply source-oriented models • Develop scenarios for source-oriented Develop scenarios for source-oriented

model (CTM) runs model (CTM) runs • Reconcile source contributions from the Reconcile source contributions from the

receptor models with other data receptor models with other data analyses, with the inventories and with analyses, with the inventories and with source modelssource models

Should policies to improve Should policies to improve outdoor AQ through CWS outdoor AQ through CWS achievement also be achievement also be maximizing public health maximizing public health benefits?benefits?

Of Course !Of Course !

For particles, the relative For particles, the relative health impact of different health impact of different sources or physical-chemical sources or physical-chemical characteristics should be characteristics should be consideredconsidered

Exposure should then be Exposure should then be consideredconsidered

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001

0723

2001

0813

2001

0903

2001

0918

2001

1022

2001

1101

2001

1105

2001

1112

2001

1119

2001

1129

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3 )

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ou

tdo

or

PM

2.5

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n

(ug

/m3 )

PM2.5 Outdoor PM2.5

rspearman = -0.10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001

0723

2001

0813

2001

0903

2001

0918

2001

1022

2001

1101

2001

1105

2001

1112

2001

1119

2001

1129

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Su

lfat

e C

on

cen

trat

ion

(u

g/m

3 )

PM2.5 Sulfate

rspearman = -0.07

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001

0723

2001

0813

2001

0903

2001

0918

2001

1022

2001

1101

2001

1105

2001

1112

2001

1119

2001

1129

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3)

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

EC

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3)

PM2.5 EC

rspearman = 0.72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2001

0723

2001

0813

2001

0903

2001

0918

2001

1022

2001

1101

2001

1105

2001

1112

2001

1119

2001

1129

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5

co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3 )

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

Cal

ciu

m C

on

cen

trat

ion

(u

g/m

3)

PM2.5 Calcium

rspearman = 0.31

Profile plots of personal PM2.5 exposures, outdoor PM2.5 levels (a), and personal exposures to SO4

2- (b), EC (c), and Ca2+ (d). This subject spent an average of 4 hours in a car each day for the duration of the study. The rest of the time was spent mostly in an office (7 hours) and at home (13 hours). The Spearman’s correlation coefficient is largest for the association between personal exposures to PM2.5 and EC.

a b

c d

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5 C

on

cen

trat

ion

(u

g/m

3 )

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ou

tdo

or

PM

2.5 C

on

cen

trat

ion

(ug

/m3 )

PM2.5 Outdoor PM2.5

rspearman = 0.71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5 C

on

cen

trat

ion

(u

g/m

3 )

0

5

10

15

20

25

Su

lfat

e C

on

cen

trat

ion

(u

g/m

3 )

PM2.5 Sulfate

rspearman = 0.44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001

0723

2001

0813

2001

0903

2001

0918

2001

1022

2001

1101

2001

1105

2001

1112

2001

1119

2001

1129

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3 )

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

EC

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3 )

PM2.5 EC

rspearman = 0.36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2001

0723

2001

0813

2001

0903

2001

0918

2001

1022

2001

1101

2001

1105

2001

1112

2001

1119

2001

1129

Date (YYYYMMDD)

PM

2.5

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n (

ug

/m3 )

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Cal

ciu

m C

on

cen

trat

ion

(u

g/m

3 )

PM2.5 Calcium

rspearman = 0.22

This subject spent an average of 21 hours at home each day for the duration of the study. The Spearman’s correlation coefficient is largest for the association between personal exposures to PM2.5 and outdoor PM2.5.

a

c

b

d

Sources of personal PMSources of personal PM2.52.5 exposureexposure

• Relative contributions to personal exposure Relative contributions to personal exposure were regional haze (17%±16%), combustion were regional haze (17%±16%), combustion (13%±10%), and local dust (7%±6%)(13%±10%), and local dust (7%±6%)

• Traffic played a larger relative role in Traffic played a larger relative role in influencing personal exposures compared to influencing personal exposures compared to ambient PMambient PM2.52.5

• 60% of personal exposure to PM60% of personal exposure to PM2.52.5 could not could not be linked to the three source categoriesbe linked to the three source categories

• The unknown sources are most likely due to The unknown sources are most likely due to indoor sources and/or something strongly indoor sources and/or something strongly linked to what the subjects did each daylinked to what the subjects did each day

Size of Size of acuteacute cardiovascular cardiovascular response is most-related to response is most-related to organic carbonorganic carbon

Diastolic Blood PressureDiastolic Blood PressureBrachial Artery Diameter Brachial Artery Diameter

Ultrafine particles near and Ultrafine particles near and on roadson roads

0.00E+00

2.00E+05

4.00E+05

6.00E+05

8.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.20E+06

1.40E+06

1.60E+06

10:00 10:36 11:12 11:48 12:24 13:00 13:36 14:12 14:48

0.00E+00

2.00E+05

4.00E+05

6.00E+05

8.00E+05

1.00E+06

1.20E+06

1.40E+06

1.60E+06

14:52 15:28 16:04 16:40 17:16 17:52 18:28 19:04 19:40

401 Windsor to TorontoWindsor Busy Roads

Number per cubic centimeterNumber per cubic centimeter

Concluding Remarks ...Concluding Remarks ...

• Is there a direct link between research and Is there a direct link between research and actual air quality policies?actual air quality policies?– At some level - yesAt some level - yes

• Measurement-based AQ research can Measurement-based AQ research can provide information of relevance to policyprovide information of relevance to policy– the more-specific the question, the more-the more-specific the question, the more-

specific the studyspecific the study– Capability to identify sources and characterize Capability to identify sources and characterize

AQ could be out-stripping health knowledge AQ could be out-stripping health knowledge • Thus, more research (health) is needed (?)Thus, more research (health) is needed (?)

Research is only Research is only 11 part of the part of the solutionsolution• New policies to manage AQ often arise when New policies to manage AQ often arise when

there is an opportunitythere is an opportunity• Creating opportunities and having sensible, Creating opportunities and having sensible,

science-based policies ready to employ is science-based policies ready to employ is importantimportant– research draws attention to potential problems and research draws attention to potential problems and

provides a science baseprovides a science base– public education, directly and via health care public education, directly and via health care

practitionerspractitioners– grass-roots pressuregrass-roots pressure

• Sensible AQ management actions are knownSensible AQ management actions are known– energy conservation/efficiencyenergy conservation/efficiency– urban and transportation planningurban and transportation planning– Strengthen association between good environmental Strengthen association between good environmental

practices and improved profits and sustainabilitypractices and improved profits and sustainability