Analysis Concerning the Disaster of the Forest: A Theoretical and

Practical Approach

Debra LarsonJJ Smith

Dean Howard SmithNorthern Arizona University

Karen Wattenmaker

Support From

RODEO/CHEDISKI COMPLEX

468,638 acres, or 732 square miles

426 structures

30,000 evacuees from 9 communities

Displaced families for 2 weeks

4,400 fire fighters

JD White

Rodeo/Chediski Costs

Navajo County $20 million lost property value

Property taxes for schools, fire, etc.

Cost of fighting it at $43 million

Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of timber

Flashflood potential increased

Business shutdowns

2001 Fire Season

Statistical Highlights 2001

Number of Fires 84,079 10 year Average (1991-2000) 106,400 Acres Burned 3,570,911 10-year Average (1991-2000) 4,083,347 Structures Burned 731

2000 Fire Season

Number of fires 122,82710-year Average (1990-1999) 106,393Acres Burned 8,422,237      10-year Average (1990-1999) 3,786,411Structures Burned 861Estimated Cost of Fire Suppression $1.3 billionMost large fires active in one day 86Number of people involved including firefighters and support personnel 30,000+

Rocky Mountain West

120 million acres of national forest39 million acres need restorationRestoration costs $150-$500+/acre$51 billion total costs2001 budget was $400 million125+ years of expenditures!Will likely never reach a reasonable level of success.

Stand Replacing Fires

Crown fires or Catastrophic Fires100 years of fire suppression

Not just the under story

Yellowstone in 1988

Yosemite

Glenwood Springs

Rodeo/Chediski 732 square miles

Flagstaff Forests

Pre settlement 20-30 trees/acre “Yellowbelly” old growth stands

Pre settlement 60-70 trees/acre typical

Today 200-300 trees/acre

Blackjack stands: 3000 trees/acre

Flagstaff Area

180,000 acres of wildland-urban interface at risk

$150-$1,200/acre for thinning

$90 Million for restoration of the Flagstaff region alone.

Karen Wattenmaker

Make A Choice

Kari Brown

Norgaard’s Coevolution Theory

(I)n the coevolutionary paradigm, the environment determines the fitness of how people behave as guided by alternative ways of knowing, forms of social organization, and types of technologies. Yet at the same time, how people know, organize and use tools determine the fitness characteristics of an evolving environment. At any point in time, each determines the other.

What is needed?

New ways of Knowing: ERI, SES

New ways of Organizing: policy and legal system

New ways of doing: extracting wood fiber

Current Forest Restoration

Thinning

Slash pile burning

Prescribed burning

Costs vary according to :

Concentration of stand

Pre-treatment condition

Access to roads

Commercial value of material

Type of disposal

Market conditions

Small Diameter Roundwood

Little engineering experience

Wood characteristics

Wood fiber characteristics

What can be produced?

Evaluation Criteria

Initial capital cost and flexibility of varying plant sizeWaste dischargesWater usageWood material propertiesSize and suitabilityRevenue potentialJobsMarket outlook

Product possibilities

Mechanical pulp and related paper and board products

Oriented Strand Board

Nonstructural particle board

Medium density fiberboard

Jane Jacobs

“differentiation emerging from generality”

“differentiations become generalities from which further differentiations emerge.”

“development depends on co-developments.”

not the “Thing Theory”

Small Roundwood Uses

Firewood

Hogan project

Post and pole

Vigas

Specialty items/furniture etc

Limited possibilities

Codevelopments

Entrepreneurial spirit (of the West)

New products and codevelopments

New uses and experiments

New jobs and opportunities

Increased tourism and activities due to fewer forest closures

Improved health

Lawsuits: 1 example

"This lawsuit can only harm our local forests and communities . . . These trees must be removed because we face a continual fire hazard. Dense vegetation still exists throughout the forest, and the potential this year for another Rodeo-Chediski-type fire in our area is very real…"

Lawsuits: a later example of the same salvage project

Although the plaintiffs did not get what they wanted from the District Court, they are winning the battle of time. If the legal process is spread out over a long enough time period, the dead timber will be unsalvageable. (Baeza, 2003b)

Necessary Co-Developments

Transportation

Processing

Developing Markets

Reinvesting in wood utilization industry

Governor’s Forest Health Oversight Council

all new or renovated state facilities to consider using commercially based wood pellets or wood chips for heating purposes (schools, universities, etc.).The legislature should provide a tax credit for homeowners that install and use wood pellet heat. develop recommendations for achieving greater contribution to energy generation in focusing on utilization of biomass materials

Permitting/Contracting Process

founded on the concepts of science-based forest management and ecological sustainability

Market prices between current cost of restoration (negative price) and current harvesting contracts (positive price.)

Interesting Market Question

Current restoration costs: $150-$1200/acre (negative price)

Current contracts on Centennial Forest $750/acre – an no market for the wood (Butler) (negative price)

Historical Sales $15/1000 board feet and $7.50/1000 cubic feet (positive prices) (8-10 years ago)

Or This

Debra Larson is Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dean Howard Smith is Professor of Economics and Applied Indigenous Studies, and JJ Smith is Senior Research Associate, School of Forestry and the NAU Centennial Forest