1. 1. ANALYZING AND MANAGING POLITICAL AND BUSINESS RISKS IN MYANMAR Thet Aung Min Latt Managing Director Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd www.diamondconsultantgroup.co m Myanmar Oil and Gas conference
2. 2. AGENDA 1. An assessment of the Myanmar General elections, key players 2. Analysis on the general elections impact on Myanmar business community 3. When major initiatives will happen and why? 4. Now, 2015 and beyond, community organization and NGO: impact on pipeline, environmental regulations and labour dispute. 5. Ethnic Politics and hate speech issues impact offshore and onshore blocks in Myanmar 6. Different scenario in 2015 Myanmar general election
3. 3. THE KEY PLAYERS The Military USDP NLD Ethnic political parties
4. 4. THE MILITARY Senior General Min Aung Hlaing General Wai Lwin General Mya Tun Oo
5. 5. USDP U Thein Sein current president U Thura Shwe Mann current speaker of the house U Htay Oo Vice chairman of USDP
6. 6. NLD Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
7. 7. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES Rakhine National Party U Aung Thar Aung Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (white tiger) Sai Ai Pao SNLD Khun Htun Oo
8. 8. THE ELECTION USDP NLD The Military (25% and former General) Ethnic political parties
9. 9. USDP West policy Party Congress (President and MPs) Rebuilding image Controversial Ministers, MPs
10. 10. NLD NLD congress Lack of MPs for election BIG challenge The management committee Would like to choose Youth and Women
11. 11. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES Likely to win major vote in ethnic region Shan, Rahkine and Mon
12. 12. THE MILITARY Senior General Min Aung Hlaing Recent visit Last year Korea, Japan This year Pakistan, Serbia, UAE Good relationship with Thai army Building diplomatic image Rebuild Myanmar army image during Kokant conflict
13. 13. PERMANENT SECRETARY www.moi.gov.mm
14. 14. PERMANENT SECRETARY permanent secretaries will run the government During prepare for election and after the election
15. 15. THE GOVERNMENT AFTER ELECTION President Vice President Speaker of the house Commander in Chief * [ One vice president as National Energy Planning committee ]
16. 16. MAJOR INITIATIVES 2015 2016 Very likely to become coalition government USDP, NLD, ethnic parties 2017 Likely to prove new bills, effective government
17. 17. INSTABILITY - INTERNAL Rise of Labor Union example Zawtika project
18. 18. INSTABILITY EXTERNAL Arakan army current conflict with army Anti Muslim movement New tension in Kayah with KNPP
19. 19. Photo from bnionline.net
20. 20. IN RAKHINE Rakhine party and armed group interest 2008 Constitution Appendix I and II changes Their resources for their region Their region with their leader as Chief Minister
21. 21. WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS DOING Stability Electricity for Rakhine state Not accepting yet AA, TNLA, MNDAA in NCA
22. 22. RECOMMENDATION Effective CSR Environmental Employee Emergency plan review External Communication (PR)
23. 23. THANKS Q&A Thet Aung Min Latt Managing Director Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd www.diamondconsultantgroup.com