Analyses of Risks Associated With RadiatiOn Exposure From ... · Analyses of Risks Associated With...

= NASATechnical

-'J 3137

August 1991

/ i_ •

i

_IT_ RA_IATIOH

SOLAR PARTICL _

I

' I .... i

Analyses of RisksAssociated With

RadiatiOn ExposureFrom Past MajorSolar Particle Event, s

A':ALY_'_S :-'F _I_K3 A<_'r,- T-:,,,C :AT _..0

EXPOSURe FROM PAST MAJOR

_VFNTS (t'_ASA) 37 p C_CL O3B

Mark D. Weyland,

William Atwell,

Francis A. Cucinotta,

John W. Wilson,

and Alva C. Hardy

Hi/,),?_

, , , : ,

Unclas i '-

0035816 ____,

=

al

|

I|

_i

|iII

i

!i||

IIi

=_-

iiiII

I

, - + ,"

=m

t I : L

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910021747 2020-04-06T04:30:37+00:00Z

Errata

NASA Technical Paper 3137

August 1991

Analyses of Risks Associated With Radiation

Exposure From Past Major Solar Particle Events

Weyland, M.D.; Atwell, W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Wilson, J.W.; Hardy, A.C.

In the computation of excess cancers and mortalities in this paper, a conversion to SI units of twovariables was inadvertently omitted. The correction lowered the risks by varying degrees ofmagnitude. The corrected results are given in the following tables. The secondary particle

contribution has been lowered by a factor of 2 for the total risk at 10 g/cm 2. The conclusionsremain the same with the exception of specific referenced numerical risks which have beencorrected herein. The authors apologize for these errors and regret any inconvenience thisomission may have caused.

NASATechnical

Paper3137

1991

National Aeronautics and

Space Administration

Office of Management

Scientific and Technical

Information Program

Analyses of RisksAssociated With

Radiation Exposure

From Past MajorSolar Particle Events

Mark D. Weyland

and William Atwell

Rockwell International

Houston, Texas

Francis A. Cucinotta

and John W. Wilson

Langley Research Center

Hampton, Virginia

Alva C. Hardy

Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center

Houston, Texas

ABSTRACT

This study investigated radiation exposures and cancer induction/mortality risks for several

major solar particle events (SPE's). The SPE's included in this study are: February 1956,

November 1960, August 1972, October 1989, and the September, August, and October 1989

events combined. The three 1989 events were treated as one since all three could affect a single

hmar or Mars mission. A baryon transport code was used to propagate particles through aluminum

and tissue shield materials. This study utilized a free space environment for all calculations.

Results show the 30-day blood forming organs (BFO) limit of 25 rein was surpassed by all five

events using 10 g/cm 2 of shielding. The BFO limit is based on a depth dose of 5 cm of tissue,

while this study utilized a more detailed shield distribution of the blood forming organs. A

comparison between the 5 cm depth dose and the dose found using the BFO shield distribution

shows the 5 cm depth value slightly higher than the BFO dose. The annual limit of 50 rein was

exceeded by the August 1972, October 1989, and the three combined 1989 events with 5 g/cm 2 of

shielding. Cancer mortality risks ranged from 1.5 to 17 % at 1 g/cm 2 and 0.5 to 1.1% behind

10 g/cm 2 of shielding for the five events. These ranges correspond to those for a 45 year old male.

It is shown that secondary particles comprise about 1/3 of the total risk at 10 g/cm 2 of shielding.

Utilizing a computerized Space Shuttle shielding model to represent a typical spacecraft

configuration in free space at the August 1972 SPE, average crew doses exceeded the BFO dose

limit.

1. INTRODUCTION

Theprimaryradiationconcernsduringmannedspaceflightsarethetrappedradiationbelts

surroundingtheearth,galacticcosmicrays(GCR),andsolarparticleevents(SPE).While trapped

radiationsarelimited in spatialextentandcanlargelybeavoided,thelow intensityGCR'sare

alwayspresentandtheSPE'sarepotentiallyof highintensityalthoughlimited in timeandspatially

unavoidableexceptdeepwithin theEarth'smagneticfield. A largeSPEduringalunaror Mars

mission,wherethespacecraftisnotprotectedbytheEarth'sgeomagneticfield, couldhaveacuteas

well aschronicadversehealtheffectsonimproperlyshieldedcrewmembers(Townsendet al.,

1990).Theeffectsof protons,theprimaryradiationassociatedwith anSPE,on thebodyare

subjecttouncertaintesdueto thehighLinearEnergyTransfer(LET) secondaryparticlesproduced

from targetfragmentation(Cucinotta,1991).

Thisstudyinvestigatedhumanorganradiationexposuresbehinddifferentdepthsof

aluminumfor somepastmajorSPE'sin freespace.Thedosesusedhereinwerederivedexplicitly

from theSPE'sandexcludetheGCRcontributionwhichwouldbepresentandsignificanton long

durationexploratoryclassmissions.Theskin,eye,andBFOdoseswerecomparedwith thelimits

currentlyusedbyNASA. Cancerriskswereattainedfor eachorganandsummedto giveatotal

risk of excesscancersandcancermortalitiesfrom theseSPE's.To illustratetheimportanceof

secondaryparticles,riskswerecalculatedandshownfor boththeprimaryandsecondaryparticles

for oneof theflares.Dosesandriskswerealsoobtainedfor two dosimeterlocationsaboardthe

currentSpaceShuttle,givingacomplexandrealisticexampledifferingfrom simpleslab

geometries.This studycouldbeusedasbaselinedatain determiningasafeandreasonable

thicknessof shieldingfor amannedspaceexplorationvehicleandanassociated"stomashelter."

2. BACKGROUND

Theenergeticchargedparticlesoriginatingfromasolarparticleeventwerepropagated

throughaluminumandtissueshieldingmaterialusingthecodeBRYNTRN (Wilson,et al.,1989).

BRYNTRN isabaryontransportmodelwhichutilizestheBoltzmannequationin astraightahead

2

approximation.ThetransportcodeBRYNTRNwaslinked to theComputerizedAnatomicalMan

(CAM) model(Billings, Yucker,1973)in ordertoobtainorgandosesbehindvariousthicknesses

of aluminumshielding.TheCAM modelwasdevelopedin theearly1970's,andwith updates

remainsasoneof thebestgeometricalandanthropomorphicallycorrectcomputermodelsavailable.

It is basedon50thpercentilestandingU.S.Air Forceman.

Riskswereassignedto eachorganbasedmostlyondatacollectedin areportto theNational

Institutesof Health(NIH) concerningradioepidemiologicaltables(Rall,etal., 1985).Therisk

coefficientsusedbytheNIH workinggroupcouldhavesubstantialuncertaintiesassociatedwith

theage-andsex-specificvalues(NCRP98, 1989).Onereasonfor thisuncertaintystemsfrom

transformingmortality ratesto incidenceratesbasedonvital statisticsdata(NCRP98, 1989).The

linearquadratic(L-Q) equationusedin theNationalCouncilonRadiationProtectionand

MeasurementsreportNo.98 (NCRP98),wasderivedby scalingthelinearBiologicalEffectsof

IonizingRadiation(BEIR)coefficients(NAS/ NRC, 1980) by a factor related to low or high

doses at low dose rates. The NCRP 98 committee defines acute and protracted doses using 5

rad/day as a dividing line. A dose received at a rate greater than 5 rad/day is considered acute

whereas less than 5 rad/day is a protracted dose. All the doses discussed in this study fall under

the acute situation. This factor is termed the Dose Rate Reduction Factor (DRRF) (NCRP 98,

1989). The L-Q coefficient for the acute situation is:

Risk coefficient = BEIR coefficient x D [1+1._6 ] Eq. 2.1(DRRF)

where: D = the acute dose in gray (Gy),

1.16 Gy = the assumed cross-over dose point for which the dose-squared contribution

equals the linear contribution (Rall et al., 1985).

The assumed DRRF is 2.5 according to the NCRP 98. These coefficients were then used to

express predicted lifetime risks and mortalities from cancer among 1000 persons, both age- and

sex-specific. An L-Q relationship was used for all organs excluding the thyroid, where a linear

relationship exists. The risks for varying acute organ doses could be obtained from the NCRP 98

3

tableswith thefollowing equation:

Eq. 2.2

where: Dn= thenewdose

En= excesscancersfor thenewdose

Dr = doseusedin NCRP98 tables

ET= specificcancerexcessassociatedwith doseD,r.

Thelifetimeradiationriskscomputedin thisreportwererepresentativeof cancersitesin whichthe

NIH Working Groupprovidedrisk coefficients(Rall, etal., 1985)andfor "other" cancers.It has

beenshownthatmostcancerscanbecausedbyradiation;however,thereis little ornoevidenceof

radiationcausingchroniclymphocytic(CL) leukemia(NCRP98,1989).Theleukemiarisksgiven

hereindonot includethis typeof malignancyandwill bedesignatedasthe"sumof non-CL

leukemia." Oneexcesscancerpermillion person-year-tadwasassignedfor"other" sitesby the

BEIR committeeandcoefficientswerethencomputedby assumingthemto beproportionalto

thosefor deathsfrom all cancers,exceptleukemia,in theatomicbombsurvivorsof bothsexes

combined(NCRP98, 1989).Theorgansof referenceusedin the"other" sitecategoryaretumors

of theoralcavity, rectum,gallbladder,uterinecorpus,uterinecervix,ovary,brain,bone,

connectivetissue,prostateandtestis,andmelanoma,lymphoma,andHodgkin's disease(NCRP

98, 1989).

Thisstudyuseddoseequivalentnumbersin placeof absorbeddosestoaccountfor thehigher

LET valuesassociatedwith spaceradiation. It shouldbenotedthattherisksshownin thisstudy

aresubjectto significantuncertaintydueto themanyassumptionsusedincomputingfinal values.

Theserisksarebestestimatesusingavailabledataandmethodsfor risk projections.

4

3. PROCEDURE

ThecodeBRYNTRN wasrun for six pastsignificantSPE'sincludingFebruary1956,

November1960,August1972,August1989,September1989,andOctober 1989. The 1989

events were combined for one case since all three SPE's could have affected a single lunar or Mars

mission. The October 1989 flare was also used singularly because of its size. The code was

modified to transport SPE particles through seven different depths of aluminum and 16 different

thicknesses of tissue (H20 in the code). BRYNTRN was set up such that the particles were

transported through the 16 depths of tissue following the propagation through each thickness of

aluminum. Organ doses were interpolated using these data in conjunction with organ shield

distributions from the CAM model. The shield distributions are obtained by selecting a dose point

in the organ and ray tracing isotropically to outside the body. These organ doses could then be

applied to equation 2.2 to obtain organ-, age-, and sex-specific risks. A short code, RISK, was

written to accomplish this task. To show the contribution of secondary particles, the output of

BRYNTRN was modified to give doses from both secondary and primary particles. Following

this, the same procedure described above was followed to obtain risks. This was done only for the

August 1972 flare. To show organ doses and risks in a situation other than slab geometries, two

dosimeter locations (DLOC) on the current Space Shuttle were chosen, historically the points with

the highest and lowest dose readouts, and put into free space for the August 1972 flare. These

results were obtained by interpolating the BRYNTRN output twice, first through the Shuttle using

its shield distribution model, and then through the body. Risks were then found following the

methodology described above.

4. RESULTS

Selected organ doses and dose equivalents vs. thickness of aluminum shielding are

shown in figures 1 - 10. These plots give a good indication of where additional shielding produces

only a small decrease in doses. A comparison of the BFO, skin, and eye doses with the limits is

given in tables 1 - 5. One should recall that all the doses and risks shown herein are representative

5

of freespace,outsidetheearth'smagnetosphere.As canbeseen,theBFO limit isexceededuntil

10g/cm2,table1,for theAugust1972flare,andthisdoesnot takeinto accounttheGCR

contribution.Tables6 - 25showtheorgan-,age-,andsex-specificcancerandmortality risksfor

thedifferentflaresbehind1and10g/cm2of A1shielding. It shouldbenotedthatdueto thelackof

asuitablefemalemodelatthetimethisstudywasconducted,therisk from thebreastswasleft out

for thefemale,This is significantin thatthebreastsgenerallyrepresentthegreatestsingleorgan

cancerrisk to thefemaleandtheexposureisexpectedto berelativelyhigh (Shaversetal., 1991).

Uponcompletionof afemalemodel,currentlybeingworkedon,riskswill becalculatedand

documented.Therisk contributionfrom secondaryparticlescanbeseenin tables26 - 29and

averageapproximately33%of thetotalrisk at 10g/cm2of AI shielding.Tables30 - 34showthe

dosesandassociatedrisksatdosimeterlocations(DLOC)#1and#2on thecurrentSpaceShuttlein

freespacefor theAugust1972event.

5. CONCLUSIONS

Thisstudyinvestigatedorgandosesfrommanydifferentperspectives.ThecurrentNASA limits

werecomparedwith theBFO,skin,andeyecomputeddoses.It canbeseenthat for eachof the

SPE's,theBFOdosesexceededthecurrent30-daylimit of 25reinusing10g/cm2of aluminum

shielding. It shouldbestatedthatthelimits for SpaceExplorationInitiative (SEI)classmissions

couldvaryfrom currentlimits dependingonothernominalrisksassociatedwith theseflightsand

thefeasibilityof stayingbelowapredetermineddoselimit. Theannuallimit, 50rem,was

surpassedbytheAugust1972,October1989,andthethree1989eventscombinedbehind5 g/cm2

of aluminum.Graphsof dosesanddoseequivalentsfor otherorgansvs.shieldthicknessare

shownin figures1- 10. Thesefiguresgive arepresentationof wheremoreshieldingyields small

changesin dosefor eachevent.This appearsto bebetween10and15g/cm2 onaveragefor the

flaresusedin thisstudy. Tables6 - 25displayage-andsex-specificrisksbasedon theorgan

dosesfrom eachSPE.Theseriskswerecalculatedbehind1and10g/cm2of shielding. Therisks

aredisplayedasexcesscancersandcancermortalitiesper1000people.Forthethreecombined

6

1989eventsbehind10g/cm2of shielding,a25yearold male would have approximately a 2.5%

risk of obtaining a fatal cancer. This doesn't take into account the GCR contribution which would

add to this risk. To show the contribution of secondary particles, tables 26 - 29 show excess

cancers and cancer morialities for a 25 year old male due to both primary protons and secondary

particles. The secondary particle contribution is approximately 1/3 of the total risk at 10 g/cm 2.

The last set of tables, 30 - 34, show organ doses and their respective risks at two representative

dosimeter locations on the current Space Shuttle for the August 1972 event in free space. It can be

seen that the annual limit of 50 rem for the BFO was surpassed at DLOC #2 and was approached at

DLOC #1. It should be noted that these two dosimeter locations are historically the highest (#2)

and lowest (#1) dose points recorded during flights. The measured crewmember exposures have

historically averaged approximately 110% of the DLOC #1 dose.

The flare doses behind varying depths of A1 obtained with BRYNTRN correlated well with

previously published values. As a reminder, these doses and risks do not include the additional

exposure from GCR's which would be significant on an SEI mission. The results of this study

give a detailed assessment of risks associated with major SPE's. The question of how much

shielding is required for a "storm shelter" will be based on an amount equal to or greater than that

shielding required to keep all doses at or below a level such that the mortality risk to the

crewmembers stays below a predetermined value (e.g., 3-5%). The total radiation risk would

require evaluations of contributions from the GCR as well as any onboard sources such as nuclear

power. This does not exclude the As Low As is Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle,

however; and it should be stressed that radiation limits of any kind, risk, or dose are established as

maximums and not quotas.

REFERENCES

Wilson, JohnW.; Townsend,LawrenceW.; Nealy,JohnE.; Chun,SangY.; Hong,B.S.; Buck,

WarrenW.; Lamkin, S.L.;Ganapol,BarryD.; Khan,Ferdous;andCucinotta,FrancisA.:

BRYNTRN: A Baryon Transport Model. NASA TP-2887, 1989.

National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP): Guidance on Radiation

Received in Space Activities. NCRP Report No. 98; Bethesda, MD, 1989.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services - National Institutes of Health (NIH): Report of

the National Institutes of Health Ad Hoc Working Group to Develop RadioepidemiologicaI Tables.

NIH Publication No. 85-2748; U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1985.

National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC): Assigned Share for

Radiation as a Cause of Cancer: Review of Assumptions and Methods for Radioepidemiologic

Tables. NAS/NRC (1984); National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1984.

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Katz, Robert; Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy;

Hajnal, Ferenc: Biological Effectiveness of High Energy Protons: Target Fragmentation.

Submitted to Radiation Research; Reston, VA., 1991.

Shavers, Mark; Poston, John W.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Wilson, John W.: A

Preliminary Calculation of Solar Cosmic Ray Dose to the Female Breast in Space Missions.

Proposed NASA TM, 1991.

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, John W.; Shinn, Judy L.; Curtis, S.B.: Human Exposure to

Large Solar Particle Events in Space. Presented to NATO, 1990.

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W; Atwell, William: Large Solar Flare

Radiation Shielding Requirements for Manned Interplanetary Missions. Journal of Spacecraft and

8

Rockets; 26-2 pp.126-128; Washington, D.C. 1989.

Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy L.; Wilson, John W.: Interplanetary Crew Exposure

Estimates for the August 1972 and October 1989 Solar Particle Events. Radiation Research (In

Press); Reston, VA., 1991.

9

W

D.

WI,Ll

U.

_zoLU_

Ow_Z

O_

[]

0

U')

0

O

OC_

O

C_

O

ii Q

OO

E

U.IZY0

-rI--

I.L

Xgo '3B00 a:_lSl:lOS'_BV

10

I.I.I0

{/)

I.I.II.I.I

I.I=IL

_Zol.IJ_

OUa,"_z

"_0I.I.I _

n'l--

O_

m

0lC)

I I I I

Cl C_ O 0_I" C'O O,.l ,,'-

0

0

c_

0

c_0")

0

,5OJ

0

0

6

m

OJ

E

&

03I.UZ

"r-l--

oJ

i,

,_9o '3SO(] 038UOS'SV

11

,<

I.LI!,,I.I

I,.6Z_o1.1.1t_U')t_OmOZ

W-I:0-1-CC_

00,<

0 X @

,,{

4

o

o

c;

o

co

E

c_

E&

ILlZ

"I-

CO

-s

LL

0

_9o '3S00 0381:10£8Y

12

LU(J

13.(/_Illiii

11!1

ZoLU(/)(/_ (/)OW_Z

=0W_

O_

II1

.J E

[] X 0 • • _1

0 0 0 0 0 0r

0

0

0

E

O3UJZY

o_"TI-"

U.

XOo '3S00 038WC_

13

IllC)

ll.IIll

ILlL

Z_otu_Cn_0"'_Z

U.i_m-I-

O_

CO

-i- _ aOD I-- ._ ',4

[] X 0 • 4 _1

o

o

o

6

E

LUZY

0

-r"

I--

°--

l.l_

_)o '3S00 038WOS"_3V

14

LU(J

O.(0I,!

U.IL

_Zo_-(/)Z(/)III ill"JZ

O_.LU

LU >COO

[]

uJ Z

E

• • 4

0 0 0 0 0

0

0

CM

E

t31

II1Z",tO

"1-I--

¢.0

LL

ASO 'IN3-1VAIn_D33S0(]

15

LU

<D.

LI.Zoi-mzmUJLU"-JZ'<v>_o

Ol-.LULU _(/) >0C_

oc.D

>C

' I • I ! !

0 0 0 Q

I0

0

0

0

O

0

0

E

l.!J LI_Zv0

"r

^So 'J_N_IVAIN03 3SCX]

16

0 C) 0 0 0 0 0 0

0

c_U3

o

0

0

c_

0

c_

m

E

-iC/) o)uJ iT_Z

0

-r

^So */N3-1VAIrlE)3:IS'C)(]

17

LLI

a..

WLLI

LL.I.L

Z_oJ..-_

L.t.JLI.J""J Z

G5ILl

0

0

I

0

0

0

0

6

0

0

0

0

0

E

W

Z

0

"l-J--.

LJ_

ASO 'INTIVAInO3 3S0(3

18

LU0

O.

LULU

Z U.--0

ZooLULU-_Z_v

LU _

0C]

[] X

IllO0

C)

0

0

0

c_CO

0

6C_J

C)

c_,r--

C)

c_

C_J

EO

LU U.ZV

0

"r

ASO'INTIVAINO3 330(3

19

Table 1 DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE AUGUST 1972 SPE IN FREE SPACE

ORGAN

BFOSKINEYE

ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS, g/cm**2

183.210951461

3

113.5347.6

617.0

5

74.80

194.4336.3

10 2O

30.86 7.71363.67 13.37

105.3 19.83

30 DAY LIMIT

(REM)25

150

100

ANNUAL LIMIT

(REM)50

3002O0

Table 2

ORGAN

BFO

SKINEYE

DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE FEBRUARY 1956 SPE IN FREE SPACE

ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS,

47.34

264.2207.3

3

39.73

91.1998.60

35.3961.60

65.59

g/cm**210 20

29.62 24.10

37.51 26.8639.75 28.07

30 DAY LIMIT

(REM)25

150100

ANNUAL LIMIT

(REM)50

300

20O

Table 3

ORGAN

BFO

SKINEYE

DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE NOVEMBER 1960 SPE IN FREE SPACE

ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS,1 3

69.78 54.444368 234.7

689.1 177.8

5

45.48

95.60101.9

g/cm**210 20

31.86 17.9145.53 23.2654.85 27.37

30 DAY LIMIT

(REM)25

150

100

ANNUAL LIMIT

(REM)50

3002O0

Table 4 DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE OCTOBER 1989 SPE IN FREE SPACE

ORGAN

BFOSKIN

EYE

ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS,

110.4

1312997.O

g/cm**23

73.29243.6

352.1

5

52.76

129.0

190.8

10 20

27.70 10.8449.83 16.26

70.51 2O.89

30 DAY LIMIT

(REM)25150

100

ANNUAL LIMIT

(REM)50

30020O

Table 5

ORGAN

BFO

SKINEYE

DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE AUGUST, SEPTEMBER,& OCTOBER 1989 SPE'S IN FREE SPACE

ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS, g/cm**21 3

171.3

22871725

112.1

383.3546.6

80.15198.8

297.2

10 20

4i .92 16.54

75.38 24.69107.0 31.65

i30 DAY LIMIT

(REM)25

150100

ANNUAL LIMIT

(REM)50

300200

20

Table 6FEBRUARY1956SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm**2OFAI

SEX,AGE@EXPM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

LUNG3.8122.5671.8491.3593.0202.4912.2651.925

SUM(NON-CL);LEUKEMIA

1.4111.5341.6571.6570.9211.0431.2891.411

ESOPHAGUSO.39O0.1670.1110.1670.4460.2230.167O.223

KIDNEY&

STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREAS2.O431.0410.6550.6172.8911.6961.0410.887

2.1810.9910.5450.5452.5781.289O.7930.744

ALLOTHER

1.6660.5430.2540.1451.9560.8330.3980.217

THYROID

i .228

0.5750.345

0.3841.880

0.8060.4990.499

TOTALBLADDER

3.0021.647

1.0650.7753.5842.131

1.4531.162

2.867

1.8641.2340.7338.872

6.4294.6803.137

CANCERS4.5412.0251.1050.859

2.8841.6571.2271.227

CANCERS

23.1412.968.8227.240

29.0318.6013.8111.43

Table 7

FEBRUARY 1956 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm**2 OF AI

SEX, AGE @ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACHM 25

M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45

F 55

MM

MMFFFF

25

35455525

3545

55

3.020

2.0381.47 o1.057

2.1511.812

1.6231.397

0.3340.167

0.1110.111

0.3340.1670.1110.167

1.426

0.732O.463O.4632.1591.2720.7710.655

SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROIDLEUKEMIA BLADDER

0.9690.581

3.3870.2911.2590.7750.4840.387

1.1051.2271.35O1.350O.675

0.7980.9211.043

0.4630.296

0.1930.1160.8100.591O.4240.283

COLON LIVER1.140

O.5450.2970.2971.2890.6440.397

0.347

ALL OTHERCANCERS

1.7800.798

0.4300.3681.1660.6750.4910.491

1.5940.5430.2540.1451.9200.7970.362

0.181

PANCREAS1.15i0.5370.3450.3451.7650.7670.4600.460

TOTAL

MORTALITIES12.98

7.4665.3024.54313.538.2996.O455.412

21

Table 8FEBRUARY1956SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm°*2OFAI

:SEX,AGE@EXP, LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH C_,OLC_ LIVER PANCREAS--M 25

M 35

M 45M 55

F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25

M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

2.175

1.4651 .O55

0.7751.723

1.4211.2921 .O98

0.229

0.0980.0650.098

0.2620.1310.0980.131

1.547

0.7880.496

0.4672.190

1.2850.7880.671

1.426

O.6480.3570.3571.685

0.843

0.5190.486

1.308

0.426

0.1990.1141.535

0.6540.3130.171

0.933

0.4370.262

0.2911.428

0.6120.3790.379

-SUM(NON-CL)'KIDNEY& THYROID All OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS

o8552.1371.172

0.7580.5522.551

1.5171.0340.827

2.533

1.1300.6160.4791.609

0.9240.6850.685

0.7870.8560.924

0.9240.5130.5820.7190.787

0.556O.3680.219

2.6451.9171.3950.935

13.93

7.5765.1024.276

16.149.8857.2226.171

Table 9FEBRUARY 1956 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI

SEX, AGE @ E.XP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREAS0.874M 25

M 35M 45

M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

MM

MMFFF

25

3545

5525354555

1.7231.163O.84O

O.6O31.2281 .O34

0.9260.797

0.1960.098

0.0650.0650.196

0.0980.0650.098

1.o8o0.5550..q_,

0.3501.635

0.9630.5840.496

0.7450.357

0.1940.194

0.8430.4210.259

0.227

1.25t

O.4260.1990.1141.5070.625

0.2840.142

0.408

0.2620.2621.3410.583

0.350O.350

SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER . CANCERS MORTALITIES

0.616

0.6850.7530.753

0.3770.4450.513

0.582

0.6890.4140.2760.2070.8960.5520.345

0.276

0.1380.088O.O580.0350.2410.1760.1270.084

0.9930.4450.2400.205O.6500.3770.2740.274

8.3064.6383.2372.7898.9135.2743.7273.326

22

Table 10NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm**2OFAI

SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

6.5584.4153.1822.3385.1954.2863.8963.312

0.6180.2650.1760.2650.7060.3530.265O.353

2.5851.3170.8290.7803.6582.1461.3171.122

COLON3.3191.5090.8300.8303.9231.9611.2071.132

1.9800.6460.3010.1722.3240.9900.4730.258

1.5430.7230.4340.4822.3621.0120.6270.627

SUM(NON-CL) KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS

3.9612.1721.4051.0224.7272.8111.9171.533

6.1163.9772.6331.56318.9213.719.9826.692

7.6143.3951.8521.4404.8362.7782.0582.058

2.3662.5722.7782.7781.5431.7492.1612.366

36.6620.9914.4211.6748°2031.8023.9019.45

Table 11NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm'*2OFAI


M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

LUNG5.1953.5062.5321.8183.7013.1172.7922.4O3

ESOPHAGUS0.5290,2650.1760.1760.5290.2650.1760.265

STOMACH1.8050.9270.5850.5852.7321.6100.9760.829

COL£_1.735O.83OO.4530.4531.9610.9810.6030.528

LIVER PANCREAS1.8940.6460.3010.1722.2810.9470.4300.215

1.4460.6750.4340.4342.2180.9640.5780.578

SUM(NON-CL) KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES

1.8522.0582.2642.2641.1321.3381.5431.749

1,2780.7670.5110.3831.6611.0220.6390.511

0.9870.6310.4110.2471.7281.2620.9050.603

2.9841.3380.7200.6171.9551.1320.8230.823

19.7111.648.3837.15019.9012.649.467

8.505

23

Table 12NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm**2OFAI

SEX,AGE@EXP UJNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACHM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

2.5591.723t .2410.9122.0271.6721.5201,292

0.2400.1030.0690,1030.2750.1370.1030.137

1.3070.6660.419O.3941.8491.0850.6660.567

LIVER PANCREAS1.4530.6610.3630.3631.7170.8590.5280.495

1.0420.3400.1590.0911.2230.5210.2490.136

0.7820.3670.2200.2451.1980.5130.3180.318


0.8600.9351,0091,0090.5610.6360.7850.860

1.7970.9850.6380.4642.1441.2750.8690.696

1.0840.7O50.4660.2773.3532.4291.7691.186

2.7671.234O.6730.5231.7571.0090.7480.748

13.897.7175.2584.38116.1010.147.5556.434

Table 13NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm**2OFAI

SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH COLON LIVERM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

2.0271.3680.9880.7091.4441.2161.0890.937

0.2060.1030.0690.0690.2060.1030.0690.103

0.9120.4680.2960.2961,3810.8140.4930.419

0.7600.3630.1980.1980.8590.4290.2640.231

SUM(NON-CL)LEUKEMIA

0.6730.7480.8230.8230.4110.4860.5610.636

KIDNEY&BLADDER

0.5800.3480.2320.t740,7530.4640.2900.232

THYROID

0.1750.1120.0730.0440.3060.2240.1600.107

_,II-OTHERCANCERS

1.0840.4860.2620.2240.7100.4110.2990.299

0.9960.3400.1590.0911.2000.4980.2260.113

PANCREAS0.734O.3420,2200.2201.1250.4890.2930.293

TOTALMORTALITIES

8.1464.678

3.3182.8478.3965.1343.7453.371

24

Table 14AUGUST1972SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm**2OFAI

SEX, AGE @ EXPJ LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREAS'1

M 25M 35M 45M 55

F 25F 35F 45F 55

IM 25IM 35

M 45

M 55F 25F 35F 45

F 55

23.9016.0911.608.520

18.9315.62

14.2012.07

2.414

1 .O340.690

1.0342.7591.379

1.0341.379

3.7981.9351.2181.147

5.375

3.1531.9351.648

9.7274.4212.4322.432

11.505.7483.5373.316

2.2020.7180.3350.191

2.5851.101O.5270.287

2.2271.0440.626

0.6963.4101.4620.905

0.905

SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS

7.5084.1172.664

1.9388.9625.328

3.6332.906

19.7412.838.496

5.04461.0744.2532.21

21.59

32.2014.367.8326.091

20.4511.758.702

8.702

10.0110.8811.75

11.756.5277.3979.13710.01

113.767.4347.6438.84

141.5697.19

75.8262.82

Table 15

AUGUST 1972 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm**2 OF AI

SEX, AGE.@ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH Q:DLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45

M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45

M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

18.9312.789.2296.626

13.4911.36

10.188.756

2.0691.0340.69O0.690

2.0691.034

0.6901.034

2.652

1.3620.8600.8604.013

2.3651.433

1.218

5.085

2.4321.3261.3265.748

2.8741.7691.548

2.1060.718

0.3350.1912.537

1 .O530.4790.239

2.0880.9740.626

O.6263.2011.392

0.8350.835

SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES

58.997.8328.7029.572

9.5724.7865.6566.5277.397

2.4221.4530.9690.727

3.1491.9381.2110.969

3.1862.0351.327

0.7975.576

4.0712.9211.947

12.625.6563.0462.611

8.2674.7863.4813.481

37.1527.9824.03

52.8436.5329.5227.42

25

Table 16AUGUST1972SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm°*2OFAI

SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACHM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

2.3O91.5541.1200.8231.8291.5091.3721.166

SUM(NON-CL)LEUKEMIA

0.8270.8990.9710.9710.5400.6110.7550.827

0.2230.095O.0640.095O.2540.1270.0950.127

KIDNEY&BLADDER

1.0320.5660.3660.2661.2310.7320.4990.399

0.7150.3640.2290.2161.0120.5940.3640.310

THYROID'

1.8441.1990.7940.4715.7074.1363.0112.018

COLON1.1780.5360.2950.2951.3930.6960.4290.4O2

ALLOTHERCANCERS

LIVER

2.6621.1870.6470.5041.6910.9710.7190.719

0.4880.1590.0740.042O.5730.2440.1170.064

PANCREAS0.4240.1990.1190.133O.6490.2780.1720.172

TOTALCANCERS

11.706.7594.6803.816

14.889.8987.5336.205

Table 17

AUGUST 1972 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI

SEX, AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55

F 25F 35F 45

F 55

M 25

M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35

F 45

F 55

1.8291.2340.8910.640

1.3O31.097

0.9830.846

0.1910.0950.O640.064

0.1910.0950.064

0.095

0.4990.2560.1620.1620.7550.445

0.2700.229

0.6160.295

0.1610.1610.6960.348

0.2140.187

0.4670.159

0.0740.0420.5620.2330.106

0.053

0.3980.1860.119

0.1190.6100.2650.1590.159


0.3330.2000.1330.1000.433

0.2660.166

0.133

0.298

0.1900.1240.0740.521

0.3800.273

0.182

1.0430.4680.2520.2160.683

0.3960.288

0.288

+

0.6470.7190.7910.791

0.3960.4680.540

0.611

6.3203.8022.771

2.3696.150

3.9943.062

2.784

26

Table 18

OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCERS PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm*°2 OF AI

"1

SEX, AGE @ EXP, LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25!M 35

M 45M 55F 25

F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35

iM 45M 55F 25F 35F 45

F 55

11.65

7.8455.6534.1539.2297.6146.9225.884

1.131

0.4850.3230.4851.2920.646O.485

0.646

2.700

1.3760.8660.815

3.8212.2421.3761.172

5.O76

2.3071.2691.2695.999

2.9991.8461.730

1.800

0.5870.274

0.1572.1140.9000.4310.235

1.596

0.7480.4490.4992.4441.0480.6480.648

SUM (NON-CL)LEUKEMIA

4.5624.959

5.3555.3552.9753.372

4.1654.562

KIDNEY &

BLADDER4.632

2.54O1.6441.1955.5293.287

2.2411.793

THYROID

11.72

7.6225.047

2.99636.2726.28

19.1412.83

ALL OTHERCANCERS

14.68

6.5453.5702.777

9.3225.355

3.9673.967

TOTALCANCERS

59.5535.01

24.4519.7079.0053.7541.22

33.46

Table 19

OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm°*2 OF AI

SEX, AGE @ EXPM 25M 35M 45

M 55F 25

F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45

M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

LUNG9.2296.2304.4993.2306.576

5.5374.9614.268


3.5703.9674.3644.3642.1822.5782.975

3.372

ESOPHAGUS0.9690.4850.3230.3230.969

0.4850.3230.485

KIDNEY &BLADDER

1.494

0.8970.5980.4481.9431.1950.747

0.598

STOMACH1.8850.9680.6110.6112.853

1.6811.0190.866

THYROID

1.892

1.2O90.7890.4733.3122.4181.7351.156

COLON2.6531.2690.6920.6922.999

1.5000.9230.808

ALL OTHERCANCERS

5.7522.578

1.3881.1903.7692.1821.5871.587

LIVER1.7220.5870.2740.1572.074

0.8610.3910.196

PANCREAS1.496

0.6980.4490.4492.295

0.9980.5990.599

TOTALMORTALITIES

3O .6618.8913.9911.9428.9719.4415.2613.93

27

Table 20OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCERS PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI

SEX, AGE @ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVE R PANCREAS

M 25

M 35M 45

M 55F 25

F 35F 45F 55

M 25

M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

2.1i6

1.4241.0260.754

1.676

1.3821.2571.068

0.1990.0850.057

0.0850.228

0.1140.085

0.114

0.855

0.4360.2740.258

1.210

0.710O.4360.371

1.135

0.5160.2840.284

1.342

0.6710.4130.387

0.6400.209

0.0970.0560.752

0.3200.1530.084

0.5100.2390.143

0.1590.781

0.3350.2070,207

SUM (NON-CLi ' KIDNEY & THYROID ' ALL(_THER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS

1.1770.6460.4180.304

1.4050.8350.5700.456

1.2820.833

0.5520.3283.9662.874

2.0921.402

2.338

1.0430.5690.4421.485

0.8530.632O.632

0.727

0.7900.8530.8530.474

0.5370.6630.727

10.98

6.2204.2733.523

13.328.631

6.5085.447

Table 21OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI

SEX, AGE @ EXPM 25M 35

M 45

M 55F 25F 35F 45

F 55

M 25M 35

M 45M 55F 25F 35

F 45R5

Lute1.6761.1310.817

0.5861.194

1.0050.901

0.775


0.5690.6320.695O,695

0.3480.4110.4740.537

ESOPHAGUS STOMACH

0.171O.O850.057

0.O570.1710.085

0.0570.O85

0.597

0.3O60.1940.1940.9030.532

0.3230.274

CC££_ LIVER

0.593

0.2840.1550.1550.671O.335

0.2060.181

0.6120.2090.097

0.0560.7380,3060.1390.070

PANCREAS0.4780.223

0.1430.1430.7330.319

0.1910.191

KIDNEY &

BLADDER0.3800.2280.1520.114

0.4940.3040.1900.152

THYROID

0.2070.1320.086O.052

0.3620.2640.1900.126

ALL 'OTHER

CANCERS0.9160.4110.2210.190

0.6000.3480.2530.253

TOTALMORTALITIES

6.199

3.6412.6172.2416.213

3.9102.923

2.644

28

Table 22AUG.,SEP.,BEHIND1 g/cm°*2 OF AISEX,AGE@ EXP LUNGM!MMMFFFF

2535455525354555

& OCT.1989SPE'S,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLE

ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

LIVER21.8814.7310.627.80017.3314.3013.0011.05

SUM(NON-CL)

2.1740.9320.6210.9322.4841.2420.9321.242

KIDNEY&

4.6362.3621.4871.4006.5603.8492.3622.012

THYROID

9.3374.2442.3342.33411.045.5173.3953.183

ALLOTHER

3.0290.9880.4610.2633.5561.5150.7240.395

PANCREAS2.7351.2820.7690.8554.1891.7951.1111.111

TOTALLEUKEMIA

8.9869.76810.5510.555.861

6.6428.205

8.986

BLADDER8.6384.737

3.0652.22910.316.130

4.1803.344

19.5112.688.3974.98660.3543.73

31.84

21.34

CANCERS28.9112.897.0335.470

18.3610.557.814

7.814

CANCERS109.864.6245.33

36.82140.095.27

73.5660.48

Table 23

AUG., SEP., & OCT. 1989 SPE'S, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLEBEHIND 1 g/cm**2 OF AI

LSEX,AGE @ EXP.M 25M 35M 45M 55

F 25

F 35F 45

F 55

M 25M 35M 45

M 55F 25F 35F 45

F 55

LUNG17.3311.708.4506.06712.35

10.409.317

8.017

ESOPHAGUS1.8630.9320.6210.621

1.8630.932

0.6210.932

STOMACH CCL£_ LIVER3.2371.662

1 .O501.050

4.8982.887

1.7491.487

4.881

2.3341 .?731.2735.517

2.7591.6981.485

2.8980.9880.4610.263

3.4901.4490.659

0.329

PANCREAS2.5641.1970.7690.7693.9321.710

1.0261.026


7.0337.814

8.5958.5954.2985.0795.861

6.642

2,7871.6721.115

0.8363.6232.2291.393

1.115

3.1492.0121.312

0.7875.5104.0242.886

1.924

11.335.0792.7352.3447.4234.2983.126

3.126

57.0735.3926.3822.6152.9135.7728.34

26.08

29

Table 24AUG.,SEP.,BEHIND10

& OCT.1989SPE'S,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEg/cm**2 OF AI


p,

M 25

M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45

F 55

LUNG3.431

2.3101.6641.2232.7172.242

2.0381.732

ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON

0.329

0.141O.O940.1410.3770.188

0.1410.188

LIVER

1.377

0.7010.4420.4161.9481.143

0.7010.598

1.864

0.8470.4660.4662.2031.102

0.6780.636

1.026

0.3350.1560.0891.2050.513

O.2450.134

PANCREAS0.821

0.3850.2310.2561.257

0.539O.3330.333

SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS

1.9441:208

1.3131.4191.4190.7880.893

1.1031.208

1.9871.090

0.7050.513

2.3721.410

0.9610.769

1.264

0.8370.497

6.0144.358

3.1732.127

3.8881. 734

0.9460.7362.4691.419

1.0511.051

17.88

f0.i26.9595.75521.3513.8110.438.776

Table 25

AUG., SEP.,BEHIND 10

SEX, AGE @M 25

M 35M 45M 55F 25

F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35

M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

& OCT. 1989 SPE'S, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE

g/cm**2 OF AIEXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH _ L_IVER PANCREAS

2.7171.8341.325

0.9511.9361.630

1,4611,257

0.2820.141

0.0940.0940.2820.141

0.0940.141

0.9610.4940.312

0.3121.4550.8570.520

0.442

0.9750.4660.2540.254

1.1020.5510.3390.297

0.9820.3350.156

0.0891.1820.4910.2230.112

0.7690.3590.231

0,2311.1800.5130.3080.308


0,9461.0511,1561,1560.5780.6830.788

0,893

0.641

0.3850.2560.1'920.8330.5130.32O0.256

0.3140.200

0.1310.078O.5490.4010.2880.192

1.524

0.6830.3680.3150.9980.5780,4200.420

10.115.948

4.2833.67310,106.3584.7614.317

30

Table 26ExcessCancersper 100025 yr. old MalesBehind1 g/cm**2of AI(Aug.72 Flare,Remdata)OrganLungColonKidney& BladderTotalCancers

PrimaryProtons2286

98

Secondaries& Recoils22216

Total24108

114

Table 27ExcessCancerMortalitiesper 100025 yr. old MalesBehind1 g/cm°*2of AI(Aug.72 Flare,Remdata)OrganLungColonKidney& BladderTotalCancers

PrimaryProtons1842

51

Secondaries& Recoils Total11

0.58

195

2.559

Table 28ExcessCancersper 100025yr. old MalesBehind10g/cm*'2of AI(Aug.72 Flare,Remdata).OrganLung

Colon

Kidney & BladderTotal Cancers

Primary Protons2.1

0.90.8

10

Secondaries & Recoils Total0.2

0.30.2

2

2.31.2

1

12

Table 29

Excess Cancer Mortalities per 1000 25 yr. old Males Behind 10 g/cm*'2 of AI

(Aug. 72 Flare, Rem data)

.OrganLungColon

Kidney & BladderTotal Cancers

Primary Protons1.7

0.5

0.3

5

Secondaries & Recoils Total

0.1

0.1

0.051

1.80.6

0.35

6

31

Table 31EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC1

SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35JF 45!F 55

5.4693.6822,6531.9494.3323.5743.2492.762

0.3820.1640.1090.1640.4360.2180.1640.218

0.9300.4740.2980.2811.3160.7720.4740.404

1.7970.8170.4490.4492.1241.0620.6530.613

0.5960.1940.0910.0520.7000.2980.1430.078

0.5500.2580.1550.1720.8420.3610.223O.223


1.45O0,7950.5140.3741.7301.0290.7010,561

4.2872.7871.8451.09613.269.6116.9974,69O

4.7532.1201.1560.8993.0191.7341.2851.285

1.4771.6061.7341.7340.9641.0921.3491.477

21.6912.909.0067.17028.7319.7515.2412.31

Table 32EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC1

z

SEX, AGE,@ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLCt'4 LIVERM 25M 35

M 45M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

M 25M 35

M 45M 55F 25F 35

F 45F 55

4,3322.9242.1121.516

3.0872.599

2.3282.004

0.3270.1640.1090.1090.3270.164

0.1090.164

0,649O.333

0.2110.2110,9830.579

0.3510.298

O.9390.4490.2450.2451.062

0.5310.3270.286

0.5700.1940.0910.052

0.6870.2850.130

0.065

PANCREAS0.5150.24O0.1550.1550.790

0.3430.2060.206


1,8630.835

0,4500.3851.2200.707

0.5140.514

1.156

1,2851.413!.4130.707

0.835O.9641.092

O.6920.4420.288

0,1731.2110.8840.634

0.423

O.4680.281

0,1870.1400.6080.3740.234

0.187

11.517.1485,2604.39910.687,3015.796

5.238

33

PRECEDING PAGE BLANK NOT FILMED

Table 33EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC2

SEX,AGE@ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55

12.608.4856.1144.4929.9828.2357.4866.363

0.8930.3830.2550.3831.0200.5100.3830.510

1.8190.9270.5830.5492.5741.5100.9270.789

3.9581.7990.9900.9904.6782.3391.4391.349

1.1170.3640.1700.0971.311O.5590.2670.146

1.0710.5020.3010.3351.6400.7030.4350.435

SUM(NON-CI') KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTAlLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS

3.1361.7201.1130.8093.7432.2261.5181.214

8.7075.6613.7482.22626.94t9.5214.219.527

11.435.O972.7802.1627.2594.1703.0893.089

3.5523.8614.1704.1702.3172.6263.2443.552

Table 34EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC2

48.2928.8020.2316.2161.4742.4033.0026.98

SEX,[email protected] 25M 35,_._ 45M 55F 25

F 35F 45

F 55

M 25M 35M ,_5M 55F 25F 35F 45

F 55

LUNG

9.9826.7384.8663.4947.112

5.9895.3654.617

ESOPHAGUS

0.7650.3830.2550.2550.765

0.3830.2550.383

STOMACH COLON LIVER1.270

0.6520.4120.4121.9221.132

0.6860.583

2.O69

O.9900.540

0.5402.3391.1690.7200.630

1.069

0.3640.1700.097

1.287O.534O.2430.121

PANCREAS1.004

0.4690.3010.301

1.5400.6690.4020.402

,=


2.780

3.0893.3983.3981.6992.0082.3172.626

1.0120.6O70.405

0.3O41.3150.8090.506

0.405

1.4060.8980.5860.3512.4601.7961.2880.859

4.4792.0081.0810.9272.9351.6991.2361.236

25.8416.2012.0110.0823.3716.1913.02

11.86

F

34

Form ,_pprovedREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE DUB_o o_o.-o,Bs

%O_qC ".=,Or" _G =ur3e_ "St _-is :C_:e_ _n ;f nf,lr_&_ :P ,s %: _at=d _c i.e?l_e ' _ 3uf 3e _ *e$c.3rse Pc;ucll_g the t;'_e for tewewlmg lnstr_c_.lot%, se_tc-,eg =q st,_ 9 3aEa _Ourc?s.

}a_hefF_ Jn(t -._a_lt.l_cj "re _a_a _e__de_ _r(_ ;?mor_,_r_} _r_3 .e,, _,r_ _re ::_e_:,3n 3 _ ,_f3rmatJGn S,=md _-_e_s re_ar_it,_ _hds o_r:lem est,t_,}_e _r _t% _l_et )_lx','-'.._f "_,_:cilec_l_n _f ,nt0rma{ro n. _c _._r%] s_L],:}e_I,),_s '_r '=(3,_c_m_ "_ our_e_ ": _n _;n -_eadcl_r_e s Se r, ces, D re_0ta,'e ¢r _f3r_a_,on _._t;oms Jnd _=':,Cr_S _2 '5 .e f_fs,_n

3av_s H,_aY, SUl_e '2_4 :_r_,n _tCn , : _2_.2 4_.0_ _r¢l _c _e ]*_:e ;' _,_-_;e'_'_! -_r_cl _l_J _e_ °l{>er_c'_- Re<lu_n _ro eLt t37_4-._ !88). _Vasn,t'_le.n. _C _'_5C3

1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED

August 1991 Technical Paper4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS

Analyses of Risks Associated With Radiation Exposure

From Past Major Solar Particle Events

6. AUTHOR(S)

Mark D. Weyland, William Atwell, Francis A. Cucinotta,

John W. Wilson, and Alva C. Hardy

7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

Space Science Branch

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Johnson Space Center

Houston, Texas 770589. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Washington, D.C. 20546-001

8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIONREPORT NUMBER

S-639

10. SPONSORING / MONITORINGAGENCY REPORT NUMBER

NASA TP-3137

11.SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES

Mark D. Weyland and William Atwell: Rockwell International, Houston, Texas

Francis A. Cucinotta and John W. Wilson: Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia

Alva C. Hardy: Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

Unclassified/Unlimited

Subject Category 92

12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE

13.ABSTRACT(Maxzmum200words)ThiS study investigated radiation exposures and cancerinduction/mortality risks for several major solar particle events (SPEs). The SPEsincluded in this study are February 1956, November 1960, August 1972, October 1989,and September, August, and October 1989 (combined). The three 1989 events weretreated as one since all three could affect a single lunar or Mars mission. A baryontransport code was used to propagate particles through aluminum and tissue shieldmaterials. This study used a free space environment for all calculations. Resultsshow the 30-day blood forming organs (BFO) limit of 25 rem was surpassed by all fiveevents using 10 g/cm2 of shielding. The BFO limit is based on a depth dose of 5 cm oftissue, while this study used a more detailed shield distribution of the BF0. A com-parison between the 5 cm depth dose and the dose found using the BFO shield distribu-tion shows the 5 cm depth value slightly higher than the BFO dose. The annual limit

of 50 rem was exceRded by the August 1972, October 1989, and three combined 1989events with 5 g/cmL of shielding. Cancer mortality risks ranged from 1.5 to 17% at Ig/cm_ and 0.5 to 1.1% behind 10 g/cm2 of shielding for the five events. These rangescorrespond to those for a 45-year old male. It is shown that secondary particlescomprise about i/3 of the total risk at 10 g/cm2 of shielding. Using a computerizedSpace Shuttle shielding model to represent a typical spacecraft configuration in

free space at the August 1972 SPE, average crew doses exceeded the BFO limit.14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES

Space radiation

Solar particle eventsCancer risks17. SECURITYCLASSIFICATION

OF REPORT

Uncla_ f_ANSN 7540-01-280-5S00

18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATIONOF THIS PAGE

Uncl ass ified

19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION

OF ABSTRACT

36 ¸

16. PRICE CODE

A03

20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT

Uncl assi fied UL

Standard l:orm 298 (Rev 2-89)PfescrlI_N:I b_ _NSI _1[(:1 Z]g.18

298-_02

NASA-Langley, 1991

Analyses of Risks Associated With RadiatiOn Exposure From ... · Analyses of Risks Associated With...

Documents

Transcript of Analyses of Risks Associated With RadiatiOn Exposure From ... · Analyses of Risks Associated With...