Ana Maria Fernandes - web3.cmvm.pt · Note: (1) Base on PPA signed (2) Base on 9M08 power prices +...
Transcript of Ana Maria Fernandes - web3.cmvm.pt · Note: (1) Base on PPA signed (2) Base on 9M08 power prices +...
EDP Investor Day
November 6th, 2008 powered by naturepowered by naturepowered by naturepowered by nature
Ana Maria FernandesEDP Renováveis, CEO
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EDPR: #4 wind player in the world with a sound asset baseEDPR: #4 wind player in the world with a sound asset baseEDPR: #4 wind player in the world with a sound asset baseEDPR: #4 wind player in the world with a sound asset base…………
-
MW Installed Capacity
MW Under Construction
625
1,733
14(1)
78
517
783
1,761
20
-
49
14457
-
MW Pipeline + Prospects
17,923
Installed Capacity
Under Construction
Pipeline + Prospects
Gross MW
4,155 1,612 27,615
216
738
5,669
1,256
74
1,002
(1) Pending on local approvals
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-
737
Spain
USA
Portugal
France
Belgium
Poland
Romania
Brazil
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…………and well positioned to capture longand well positioned to capture longand well positioned to capture longand well positioned to capture long----term profitable growthterm profitable growthterm profitable growthterm profitable growth
The sector for renewable energy experiences solid fundamentals and a positive trend for long term growth
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Pure renewable player, with a balanced asset base in attractive markets, and a robust pipeline to feed future growth through a selective approach
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Recent IPO provides for a solid short-term balance sheet, with future needs supported by EDP parent company
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Importance of energy dependency, COImportance of energy dependency, COImportance of energy dependency, COImportance of energy dependency, CO2 emissions and time to emissions and time to emissions and time to emissions and time to market drives the need for market drives the need for market drives the need for market drives the need for renewablesrenewablesrenewablesrenewables…………
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Wind
• Unfavorable economics
• Obsolescence risk
• Lack of public support
• Low timely availability
• Uncertain economics
• Not clear public support
• Increasing fuel dependency
• High price and volatility
• No CO2 cost
• Growing regulatory and public
support
Energy dependency
CO2
emissionsTime to market
5-7 yrs
~10 yrs
2-3 yrs
1-3 yrs
Currently, wind is the most attractive renewable technology both in terms of cost and scalability
Better Worst
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…………creating growing regulatory and public support in USA and EUcreating growing regulatory and public support in USA and EUcreating growing regulatory and public support in USA and EUcreating growing regulatory and public support in USA and EU
Stable regulatory environment: growth conditions created to meet local government
and EU 2020 targets
Growing momentum at State and Federal levels for more strict renewable policy initiatives to
underpin wind support
US Elections / New Administration support
Establish a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) of 10% by 2012
escalating to 25% by 2025
Extension of PTC for 5 years at a time
Increasing support at national level
Mature markets: Germany increased wind on-shore tariff to revive investments
Growing markets: Romania enhanced the remuneration attributed to wind projects
European Commission continues to support 2020 targets even under current environment
USA willing to re-launch economy based on sustainable investments
Sector with solid fundamentals and positive trend for the long term
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Pure renewable player, with a balanced asset base in attractive markets, and a robust pipeline to feed future growth through a selective approach
Recent IPO provides for a solid short-term balance sheet, with future needs supported by EDP parent company
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3
6
0 (0) €160(2) +0.7 GW+85% CAGR
Green Certificates, PPA
Strong presence in attractive marketsStrong presence in attractive marketsStrong presence in attractive marketsStrong presence in attractive markets…………
Country 9M08 Price/MWh
Country growth potential 2007-2015(4)
9M08 Gross MWIn operation (under construction) Remuneration Scheme
Note: (1) Base on PPA signed (2) Base on 9M08 power prices + green certificates; in Romania assuming prices of green certificates in new regulation(3) Including sale of interests in institutional partnerships (grossed-up for taxes) (4) Source: EER, European Wind Power Market Forecasts, June 2008 and EER, US/Canada Wind Power Market Forecasts, June 2008
4,155 (1,612)
Wind Resource
144 (49)Feed-in tariff, 1 year accelerated fiscal depreciation
€73.2+ 11 GW
+24% CAGR
Green Certificates, PPA0 (57) €112(1) +1 GW+18% CAGR
517 (78) Feed-in tariff€100.1+5 GW
+17% CAGR
+16 GW+10% CAGR
1,761 (783) Feed-in tariff + market option€99.4
0 (20) Green Certificates, PPA€126(2) +3 GW+35% CAGR
1,733 (625)•PPA and REC contracts•PTCs + MACRS
$87.0(3) +70 GW+23% CAGR
Spain
USA
Portugal
France
Belgium
Poland
Romania
<25% 25-30% >30%
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…………with top quality load factors to deliver premium assetswith top quality load factors to deliver premium assetswith top quality load factors to deliver premium assetswith top quality load factors to deliver premium assets
Historic and long-term load factors
(%) Premium site selection
28% 27%24%
32%
Market average
25% 25%24%
+2.7pp
28% 28% 25% 35%
+2.1pp
+0.6pp
2004-2007 2004-2007 2004-2007 2004-2007
Long-term expected on current assets + under construction A clear competitive advantage:
key value driver to maximize returns
Second-to-none wind assessment team
Designing premium projects by optimizing site layout
Selecting the best fit turbine
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EDP RenovEDP RenovEDP RenovEDP Renovááááveis is on track to execute shortveis is on track to execute shortveis is on track to execute shortveis is on track to execute short----term growthterm growthterm growthterm growth…………
2008 additions and capacity under construction
(Gross MW)
37%
63%
2008 2009
2008 additions
Under construction
+1.4 GW
Total capacity: installed + under construction
(Gross MW)
5,1155,767
3,640
+1,612
+515
2007 9M08 add. Under
constr.
Total
Gross
MW
Total
EBITDA
MW
Installed Capacity
Under construction
• On track to install 1.4 GW in 2008 and visibility on 2009 new capacity
• Back-end weighted of new installations in 2008 follows historical civil works investment cycle
• Execution of short-term growth through pipeline development
€1.0bnalready
invested (1)0.7 GW
(1) Excludes turbines deposits for future projects of €250m
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…………and is adapting its growth strategy to current environmentand is adapting its growth strategy to current environmentand is adapting its growth strategy to current environmentand is adapting its growth strategy to current environment
Decrease of electricity prices
from a peak level
Increased cost of capital on
current economic environment
Recent trends on key value drivers EDP Renováveis mitigating levers
Possible downward pressure on
turbine prices
Low risk profile in a balanced and diversified asset portfolio
Enlarged and robust pipeline providing optionalities to value oriented growth
Un-contracted position and flexibility on turbine delivery
1
2
3
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Actively improving portfolio risk profileActively improving portfolio risk profileActively improving portfolio risk profileActively improving portfolio risk profile
Revenues breakdown
(EBITDA MW)
5%8%
5% 13%
37%34%
19% 16%
19% 13%
14%15%
9M08 9M08 + Under constr.
Feed-in Tariff
Market w/ Cap&Floor
Long-term PPA
PPA to be signed
Fixed tariffs indexed to inflation
Long-term PPA at fixed prices or fixed escalator
Revenues Sensitivity
Market
Total exposure to electricity market prices until 2012
(Spain): By 2013 a cap&floor will be introduced
(premium on this assets is reduced to 30€/MWh)
Exposure to green certificate prices:In regions with strong mandatory green quotas the “green
price” hedges “brown price”.
Fixed premium attributed in Spain: €38/MWh on old
regulation; €30/MWh on new regulation
Currently, >85% of EBITDA MW have limited to no exposure to volatility in power prices.
1
Fixed PremiumMarket prices with a cap and floor on final realized price
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Benefit from a robust pipeline of 29GW providing Benefit from a robust pipeline of 29GW providing Benefit from a robust pipeline of 29GW providing Benefit from a robust pipeline of 29GW providing optionalitiesoptionalitiesoptionalitiesoptionalities to short/medium term valueto short/medium term valueto short/medium term valueto short/medium term value----oriented growthoriented growthoriented growthoriented growth
1,612
5,156
1,668
29,227
10,580
10,211
Total Prospects Tier 3 Tier 2 Tier 1 Under
const.
Portfolio of projects
(Gross MW)
+8.4 GW
2012 target: 10.5 gross GW;
+6.3 GW vs. 9M2008
Europe43%
(of under construction,
Tier I and Tier II)
USA57%
(of under construction,
Tier I and Tier II)
Spain: Target top-quality sites
Portugal: awarded tender with
assets in premium locations
Rest of Europe: growth options on
high yield markets
Accelerate development in
attractive liquid markets with
strong RPS
Mandatory demand for green
electricity is the main driver for
prices settlement and profitability
2
Time-to-market
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Flexibility on turbine delivery and hold mediumFlexibility on turbine delivery and hold mediumFlexibility on turbine delivery and hold mediumFlexibility on turbine delivery and hold medium----termtermtermtermunununun----contracted positioncontracted positioncontracted positioncontracted position…………
Turbines commitment until 2012
(GW)
Contracts at fixed prices (or inflation): without indexation to past commodity escalation
c35% of the contracted turbines with flexibility on geography and year at limited cost
Maximize projects’ value creation through the negotiation of new contracts at competitive prices
Total
Not
Contracted
Contracted
Under
Constr.1.6
1.8
3
Flexibility to serve a global pipeline and maximize projects’ value
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1.1
1.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-10 2011 2012 2013
...to manage project profitability and maximize value creation...to manage project profitability and maximize value creation...to manage project profitability and maximize value creation...to manage project profitability and maximize value creation
EDPR: capex cost evolution
(€m / MW)
Escalation of commodities and
seller’s market WTG efficiency
Signed 2006-2008 To be signed 2009-2010
7%• Turbines: cost is driven by
raw material prices and by the balance between supply and demand (global deals)
• Balance of Plant (BoP):construction cost driven by local market dynamics
Capex main inputs:
Typical capex brekdown
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2
2
1Current drop in commodities and
re-balancing supply and demand70-80%
30-20%
CAGR
Depending on
economic scenarios
3
-€100th +100bps
Capex/MW
IRR unlevered
Sector with solid fundamentals and positive trend for the long term
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Pure renewable player, with a balanced asset base in attractive markets, and a robust pipeline to feed future growth through a selective approach
Recent IPO provides for a solid short-term balance sheet, with future needs supported by EDP parent company
2
3
1515
Funding terms were already contracted for the current capacity Funding terms were already contracted for the current capacity Funding terms were already contracted for the current capacity Funding terms were already contracted for the current capacity under constructionunder constructionunder constructionunder construction
Total capacity: installed + under construction
(Gross MW)
5,767
4,155
+1,612
9M08 Under constr. Total Gross
MW
Installed Capacity
Under construction
Capex already incurred
(€ million)
Already
spent
To be
paid
Under construction Capex needs covered
For 20080.9 GW
For 20090.7 GW
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2
1 Capital expenditures already financed through debt arrangements with EDP parent or IPO proceeds
1.6 GW
2 Terms already contracted in the former agreements with EDP parent to finance projects under construc. at fixed price for 10Y
Total of 5,767 MW not financially impacted by the increase of cost of capital
Notes: (1) Excludes €250m of turbine deposits already spent
(1)
Remaining
IPO proceeds
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2. Tax equity
markets in US
EDP RenovEDP RenovEDP RenovEDP Renovááááveis sources of fundingveis sources of fundingveis sources of fundingveis sources of funding
1. EDP parent
company loans
3. Project finance or
other instruments
Rational
•EDP to support the funding for EDP Renováveis to
finance business growth
•EDP to finance EDP Renováveis at market prices
•Mostly used in cases of wind farms in new geographies,
minority shareholders, …
• If and when terms are better than EDP’s conditions
•EDPR monetizes tax benefits of first 10 years of the
projects so that the value of taxable benefits are
realized as they are generated
•Monetization represents approx. 50% of projects’ initial
capex
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Monetization of tax credits in US has become more challenging Monetization of tax credits in US has become more challenging Monetization of tax credits in US has become more challenging Monetization of tax credits in US has become more challenging but 2008 structure is expected to be close by yearbut 2008 structure is expected to be close by yearbut 2008 structure is expected to be close by yearbut 2008 structure is expected to be close by year----end end end end
Illustrative: capital structure of US wind
activity (%)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Life-time
Institutional partners liability
Once construction is done Partners pay lump-sum
equivalent to the tax benefits of the first 10 years
Partners receive tax credits (PTC +
MACRS) and cash-flow from the
project between flip-dates to achieve
agreed IRR
Partnership structures to allow to capture the
full value of the projects
New structure: Vento III – 604 MW
The lack of taxable base postpones the benefit from
the tax credits granted: tax partnerships will enable
to capture the time value of money of tax credits
177 MW 358 MW 71 MW
Installed
Under
construction
end-2008
Under
construction
1Q09
Vento III undergoing due diligence process
Equity
Financial Debt
Conclusion
1919
Current share price not even discounts the replacement cost of Current share price not even discounts the replacement cost of Current share price not even discounts the replacement cost of Current share price not even discounts the replacement cost of the existing assetsthe existing assetsthe existing assetsthe existing assets
Enterprise Value
(€ millions)
Equity @ 4.50 3,925
Net Debt 9M08 513
Minorities 9M08 343
Enterprise Value 5,551
Institutional Partners 9M08 769
EV / MW
(€m/MW)
Works in progress 9M08 1,229
Capex already incurred with projects under construction
and development
-
1.23
3,502 EBITDA MW
0.78
@ 4.50
Price to Book
(x)
9M2008
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