An overview of the engine market: forecasts, analyses and plans ahead. George Dimitroff, Senior...
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AEROSPACE INFORMATION REDEFINED An Overview of the Engine Market Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance Europe Conference June 2011, London George Dimitroff, Senior Analyst The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst the utmost care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Ascend Worldwide Limited, its subsidiaries, their officers, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred.
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- recognising the cyclical behaviour ofthe engine leasing market - Calculating the supply and demand of engines
Transcript of An overview of the engine market: forecasts, analyses and plans ahead. George Dimitroff, Senior...
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
An Overview of the Engine Market
Engine Leasing, Trading & Finance Europe ConferenceJune 2011, London
George Dimitroff, Senior Analyst
The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst the utmost care has been taken to ensureaccuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Ascend Worldwide Limited, its subsidiaries, their officers, oremployees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred.
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
#A
ircr
aft
InSe
rvic
e
<10
10 to 15
15 to 20
20 to 25
25 to 30
>30
AGE OF FLEET
Western Built Jet Fleet Development: Segmented by Age
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
0
5000
10000
15000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
#A
ircr
aft
InS
ervi
ce
Irkut MS-21
COMAC C919
717
737 (NG)
MD-90
A320 Family
737 (CFMI)
757
MD-80
737 (JT8D)
One-Eleven
DC-9
VC10
Trident
727
Convair 880/990
720
DC-8
707
Caravelle
Comet
AIRCRAFT TYPE
Narrowbody Segmentation by Type: 1960-2010, Forecast to 2020
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Four Families: 75% of world fleet by value
Share of Global Fleet Value by Type
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Others
737 Classics
757
767
A340
747
EJETs
A330
777
737 NGs
A320 Family
% 0-5yr Fleet
Total Fleet
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Narrowbody Engines: Growth
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 %A
ircr
aft
Re
turn
ing
toSe
rvic
ew
ith
inTi
me
Per
iod
#A
ircr
aft
Sto
red
pe
rQ
uar
ter
Storage Outcomes: All Types
RETURN TO SERVICE RETIRED IN STORAGE % STORED < 3MTHS
Storage Trends: Market Cyclicality
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Value Trends
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Value Retention
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Value Retention Characteristics: Older Technology
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Value Retention Characteristics: Newer Technology
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Lease Rate Trends
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Lease Renewal
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Inflation Helps Engine Pricing, Less so for Aircraft
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Summary
Engines remain a strong investment
Limited volume compared to aircraft
Spares ratios declining: 10% → 8% → 6%?
More upside volatility in values than aircraft early in production cycle
Less downside volatility while in-production, high risk afterwards
Strong lease renewal potential
Next generation will take a long time to outgrow current one
AEROSPACEINFORMATIONREDEFINED
Ascend Asia
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Tel +852 2813 6366
Ascend USA
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New York,
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Tel +1 212 286 1692
Ascend Head Office: LHR
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London, TW6 2AS
Tel +44 (0)20 8564 6700
Ascend City of London
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City of London
EC3M 7
Tel +44 (0)20 8564 6700
The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst the utmost care has been taken to ensureaccuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Ascend Worldwide Limited, its subsidiaries, their officers, oremployees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred.
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