Anoverviewofcurrentglobalhumandimensionmethods:integratedassessmentmodels

BrianO’Neill,NCARWorkshoponLinkingEarthSystem

DynamicsandSocialSystemModeling23-25May2016,Boulder,Colorado

WhatisIAM?

Janetos et al., 2009, DOE.

Figures from IMAGE model, from Bouwman, Kram and Klein Goldewijk, 2006.

• Global scale• Decadal to century

timescale• Insights into

questions atlevel of nation+

• Climate changemitigation, impacts,adaptation

Some factors/processesrepresented at finerresolution:

soilsclimatepopulationurban extentGDPland useemissions

ModelstructureandcomponentsiPETS

FinalGoods

EnergyAgric.

Materials

CO2 Emissions

Consumption, Investment,Government, Exports/

Imports

Final Goods Producers

Consumption & SavingsCapital & Labor

Households

Oil, Gas, Coal, ElectricityRefined Fuels,

Intermediate Goods Producers

Cropland, forestland pasture

LaborCapital

LandLaborCapital

Land

Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Products, and Materials

IIASAdownscalingofRCP-8.5NPV of Forestry vs. NPV of Agriculture

NPV forestry = f(planting costs, timber price, timber volume,rotation length, carbon benefits)

NPV agriculture = f(land suitability, population density, land price)

Grazing intensity, RCP-8.5, MESSAGE model, 2000

DecisionmakinginIAMs

BehavioralandDecision-makingProcesses

Households(regional)– Maximizeutility,givenpricesandbudgetconstraint

Producers(regional)– Maximizeprofits (minimizecosts),givenmarketclearingcondition

Producers(spatial)– Rule-based allocationoflandusetogridcells(e.g., IMAGE,GLM)– Regression-based allocationbasedonhistoricalpatterns (e.g., iPETS,

IGSM)– Explicitsimulationofprofitmaximizingdecisionsateachgridcell,

constrainedbytotalregionallanduse(e.g.,GLOBIOM)

HouseholdSurvey Data

Region 9IA Model

PET ModelRegion 1PET Model

Region 1Region 1IA Model

HH CharacteristicsLabor supplyPreferencesSubstitutionInitial capital

HH OutcomesConsumption

IncomeSavings

Characteristics by Type

Size, IncomeUrban/Rural, Age,

See van Ruijven et al., 2015, for a review.

MultipleHouseholdTypes

O’Neill et al., 2010. iPETS model.

MultipleHouseholdTypes

MITUSmodel15,000+householdsasindividualagentsImplicationsofcapandtradeschemeVariationsineffectswithingroupscanswampacross-groupeffects

Rausch et al., 2011.

ProductionData

Region 9IA Model

PET ModelRegion 1PET Model

Region 1Region 1IA Model

Industry OutcomesProduction

Demand for inputs(including land)

Industry CharacteristicsInput mix (initial)ProductivitiesProduction structure Substitution

New Types?Large vs small scale(e.g., HH production)Access to tradeSub-region(e.g., Frontier)

Characteristics by TypeProduct,

Technology, …

CouplinghumanandnaturalsystemsinIAMs

van Vuuren et al., 2012.

ApproachestocouplingExamples

THESIS

Climate model emulation

Urban, ag mgmt in ESMs

IMAGE-CNRMGCAM-CESM

GCAM-CESM(iESM)

Collins et al., 2015.

iESM result

Jones et al., 2015.

iPETSIntegratedAssessment

Model

DataHumanSystem

THESISToolboxforHuman-EarthSystem

Integration&Scaling

HumanSystem

EarthSystem

urban

agriculture

forests

Impacts

Visualization&DecisionSupport

Evaluation&UncertaintyAnalysis

Impact&AdaptationAssessment

HumanSystem

CESMCommunity

EarthSystemModel

DataEarthSystem

EarthSystem

SpatialDistribution

Properties IAMConsistency

ImpactAssessment

Population Spatialpopulation

Populationcharacteristics

Urban Spatialurbanlandcover

Buildingproperties

Building energyuse

Heat waveexposure

Agriculture Spatialaglanduse

Croptypeandmanagement

Crop yield

Forest Spatialforestrylanduse

Foresttypeandmanagement

Forestyield

TypesofTHESISTools

Impacts, 2061-2080, RCP8.5, SSP5Nine world regions

CLM

CLM Crop Modeling

Levis et al., 2016

iPETSiPETS Integrated Assessment Model

Ren et al., subm.

Yield

Crop prices

Crop land

Ren et al., 2015.

Justificationforcoupling:Landuse<->climateexample

Insufficient:Doeslandusechangeaffectclimate?Doesclimateaffectlandusedecisions?Evenifbotharetrue,couplingnotnecessarilyrequired.

Sufficient:Istheclimateeffectofaplausibleamountoflandusechangelargeenoughtocauseachangetheoriginallandusedecisionthatissubstantialcomparedtootheruncertaintiesintheproblem?

Toanswerthisquestion,thehighestprioritystepisnottocouplethemodels,especiallyifcouplingisdifficult

ProposeddirectionsDecisionmaking

– Newtypesofproducers,consumers,orotherinstitutions– Additionalscales– Changeinrulesbywhichtheyinteract

Couplinghuman-earthsystems– Systematicinvestigationofone-wayinfluences– Two-waycouplingatregionalscales– Two-waycouplingatglobalscalesfortheintrepid

Ingeneral– Identifyspecificresearchquestion,andhypothesisforwhyanewtypeofmodelorapproachisneededtoaddressit

– Considermultiplepossibleapproachestocoupling