An Operational Solar Forecast Model For PV Fleet ... An Operational Solar Forecast Model For PV...

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  • An Operational Solar Forecast Model For PV Fleet Simulation

    Richard Perez & Skip Dise Jim Schlemmer Sergey Kivalov Karl Hemker, Jr. Adam Kankiewicz

  • NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    © R. Perez & et al.

     Historical and forecast platform

     Blended forecast approach

     Application in electric grid operation

  • NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    © R. Perez & et al.

    1998 6 days ahead

    CLIMATOLOGY NOW

  • NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    1998 6 days ahead

    CLIMATOLOGY NOW

    © R. Perez & et al.

    SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING MODEL

  • NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    Original Model

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • CLOUD

    MOTION

    NOW DAYS AHEAD CLIMATOLOGY HOURS AHEAD

    Original Model

    © R. Perez & et al.

    Cloud speed calculated individually for each image pixel, by minimizing pixel-surrounding scene difference between two consecutive images.

    Cloud speed is applied to generate future image

    With high resolution images, model can be applied to generate 1-minute resolution data forecasts

    The procedure can also be applied to generate 1 minute historical data

  • NOW DAYS AHEAD CLIMATOLOGY HOURS AHEAD

    Numerical

    Weather

    Prediction

    Original Model

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    Cloud motion NDFD

    GLOBAL SCALE MODELS • NCEP GFS • ECMWF CONTINENTAL SCALE MODELS • NAM HIGH RESOLUTION ASSIMILATION MODELS • RAP • HRRR

    Operational NWP models

    Existing Model NEW OPTIMUM MIX

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • Existing Model

    NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    NEW

    Hanford

    Desert Rock

    Goodwin Creek

    Penn State

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • Existing Model

    NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    NEW

    © R. Perez & et al.

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    Satellite

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    Satellite

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    © R. Perez & et al.

    Satellite

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    IEA-shcp Task 36

  • Existing Model

    NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

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    © R. Perez & et al.

    Satellite

    FORECAST

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    NEW

    © R. Perez & et al.

    Satellite

    FORECAST

    FORECAST 5

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    Satellite

    FORECAST

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    Satellite

    FORECAST

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  • CLEAR

    CLOUDYCloudy forecast Clear conditions

    Clear forecast Cloudy conditions

    After SMUD’sTJ Vargas et al.

    NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

    Existing ModelNEW

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • HIT

    HIT

    MISS

    MISS

    CLEAR

    CLOUDYCloudy forecast Clear conditions

    Clear forecast Cloudy conditions

    1-HOUR-AHEAD -- PENN STATE GFS

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • 1-HOUR-AHEAD -- PENN STATE RAP

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • 1-HOUR-AHEAD -- PENN STATE ECMWF

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • 1-HOUR-AHEAD -- PENN STATE CLOUD MOTION

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • 1-HOUR-AHEAD -- PENN STATE NEW SA

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • % MISSED FORECASTS -- 01 HOUR AHEAD

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • 1-HOUR-AHEAD -- PENN STATE NEW FORECAST

    © R. Perez & et al.

    SINGLE POINTSMALL REGION

  • PV FLEET DATA: Individual system size, orientation, location, specs, shading

    -200

    0

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    400

    600

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    1000

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    F

    PV SIMULATIONS

    Historical: what if Forecast: Operational

    © Perez et al.

    NOW FORECASTCLIMATOLOGY

  • Centralized PV Plants Distributed PV

    © R. Perez & et al.

  • Identifying the PV Generators

    Detailed Individual PV system specs (location, modules, inverter, layout, etc. details)

    San Francisco

    PG&E Bay Area PG&E Non Bay Area SCE Coastal SCE Inland SDG&E

    Distributed PV

  • Changing Load Shapes 2007-2015

    Data courtesy of the CAISO

    Changing Load Shapes 2007-2015

  • • Itron and CAISO evaluated SolarAnywhere PV fleet historical production as training input into CAISO’s Automated Load Forecast System (ALFS)

    • Regions modeled from Jan 2010 through Feb 2014

    PG&E sub-region

    Validation in Load Forecasting Models

  • Preliminary Results (Historical Load Training)

    Hour of Day Ahead Forecast 9 am 12 pm 3 pm

    CPR BTM Dataset? No Yes No Yes No Yes

    Load Forecast Error (MW) 122.3 121.7 136.7 130.1 149.3 142.7

    Load Forecast Error (%) 1.11% 1.10% 1.18% 1.12% 1.27% 1.21%